G'day Punter!

In this Discussion

Who's Online

0 Members & 11 Non Members

PGA Tour 2022/2023 Season

Sport

Comments

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    RAHMBO gets it done again at American Express

    It's was a tussle down the back nine with both Rahm and Thompson trading blows. Players around then we're going ultra low and posting up to -25.

    The turning point was hole 16. Tied at -26, Rahm delivers straight down the middle of the par 5 while Thompson goes hard left into a monster bunker. Then Rahm.geys lucky on his second shot and makes birdie to take a one shot lead. On the par 3 17th, Thompson leaves the flag in for has 30 foot putt only to have it rattle the flag and pop out. Rahm shaved the lip once again and maintained the one shot advantage in the end to record his 2nd consecutive win for the year and 4th in the space of 6 starts.


    128 units jump into the kick and we are cooking along nicely again thanks to RAHMBO

    Season +168

    This week + 128

    Overall +296 units



    Rahm goes to the Farmers Insurance this week at Torrey Pines, a course that he has record breaking wins and form on. I expect he'll come up very short around $3.50

    Gilgamesh, detonator, jum likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Rahm has come up 4.50 in early odds .....could be a trap.....
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Not a long spiel this week. The FARMERS stars TONIGHT, so get your bets on.

    Torrey Pines is the course. Those familiar with golf know that Rahm won his forst tournament here. He also won the US Open here. He has won 4 of his last 6 world wide starts. 

    Needless to say, its no suprise to see Rahm at 5.10 favorite.

    I still went through the data. I still tried to get him beat. Alas, I just cannot, based on statistics. 

    The chinks in his armour come from historical feats that are rarely acheived. 

    There have been 18 ocassions since 1998 where a player has come off 2 wins and won a third week in a row. 14 of those 18 was Tiger haha. so essentially 5 players in 25 years.

    Rahm has backed up a week later on 3 ocassions and failed every time, including Torrey Pines. 

    But his game is eite and at a standard higher than the rest. He comes off amazing form, to a course he loves and is arguably his best surface.

    others I thought who may prove to chanllenge are all up there in the odds. Xander ($12), JT ($18) and Morikawa ($20) all look dangers. But in the end I couldnt get there outright with them.

    So the plays this week

    Rahm 30 units at $5 to return 150 units

    Forecast Top 2 (both ways)
    0.838 units on each combo (x6) Rahm with Xander, JT and Morikawa. Total 5 units.

    And last but not least a bit of a cheeky throw at the stumps across tours (DP World is playing Abu Dhabi). Rahm ($5.1) into Rory ($4.35), 5 units at 22.18, to return 110.92 units.


    Lets hope for a boring week of Rahm and Rory winning

    Season +296

    This week -40

    Overall +256 (40 alive)

    Good luck and remember, it starts tonight!

    detonator, Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Rahm is plodding at +1 with 2 holes.to play. He is 9 off the lead!!!

    Went one week too many I think 8-X
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Rahm goes on a tear in the last 5 holes, shooting -5 to finish at -4 for the tournament and safely make the cut. That's 22 made cuts in a row and is the longest streak on your currently. He has a few to go to get to Tigers record of 142 in a row hahaha

    He sits still 8 off the lead, however only 3 shots off second place. Sam Ryder is blitzing them at -12.

    If you can find it, have a look at the price fluctuations of Rahm. He was $5 opening, out to $23 overnight and then $29 after the 13th. Currently back to $7.

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Rahm opens with a -5 front nine, absolutely tearing it up and now sits in 2nd place, only 2 back!

    He is 10 under in his last 15 holes!!!
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    The stage is set for the last round where Rahm is the 2.20 fav to win. He sets off in the last group with Big Tony Finau who posted a huge -8 for the day and leader Sam Ryder.

    Both Rahm.amd Finau were T116 after round 1 at +1, now in the final group. The cream does really rise to the the top. A host of other excellent players are chasing including Sungjae, Morikawa and Homa.

    C'mon Jon go three in a row!!!
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Absolute carnage at Torrey Pines this morning. 8 holes in for the final groups and the leaders are at -11. Rahm has dropped 3 shots early but is still only 4 back.

    Anyone's tournament at this stage. The course is biting back bigtime and no surprise to see some.big scores on the way in
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Homa gets it done at Torrey

    Max shot a round of the day 66 with Keegan Bradley to win by 2 shots at -13. It was ultra tough conditions but Max was able to steady on the way home and the clincher was the birdie at 16, the hardest hole of the day as one hole back, leader Sam Ryder took double bogey. The 3 shot swing was massive and took the wind out of the sails of Ryder trying to get his first PGA tour win.

    RAHMBO finished on -8 for the tournament with a final round 74. He struggled from the outset, bogeying the first hole and then a double on 5 sealed his fate.

    Extremely frustrating to watch Homa win as he was in my original 5 picks and fell into the trap of Rahm. He was $23 at the start of the tournament. In my defence, Rahm has been good to me of late and it was a risk I was willing to take.

    Attention turns straight away to Pebble Beach next week, a favorite course for many tour players. Leading names committed to play are Spieth, Hovland and Fitzpatrick.

    Update

    +256 for the season

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    If you have nothing to do, watch the last 5 holes of the Dubai Hero event that concluded today. Stirring stuff Rory vs Reed
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    We go to Pebble this week for the Pebble Beach ProAM. The celebrities are out in force (well Bill Murray is there as usual as well) and this is a tournamnet played across 3 courses for the first 3 days.

    Going back through the records, I backed Cantlay, Power and Mito Periera last year. Power lead by 6 shots at the 36 hole mark then prompty shat the bed, leaving the door open for Cantlay on the last day. He and Speith also stumbled allowing Tom Hoge to come through and get a win on the tour. 

    This year, I have settled on 7 blokes to try and eek out a profit. Slow and steady wins the racein the end and with the mayjors coming up in under 3 months, it would be good to have a bank behind me. I say this as last year the majors were my most successful tournaments betting into snagging 3/4 of them (missed Fitz at the US Open).

    Anyway, I digress. As mentioned, the softwre has spit out a variety of players for this week based on a number of different parameters. Putting is papramount across the 3 courses with approach also being and important metric. Recent form and tournament history also come into play to come up with the following players and prices

    Tome Hoge $23
    Mav McNealy $23
    Andrew Putnam $34
    Ben Griffen $61
    Brendan Todd $61
    Matti Schmid $126
    Ryan Armour $176

    Playing these 7 blokes at the named prices gives you a chop out at $6.14. Not a bad arbitrage price. This is helped by my complete disdain (stupidly or smart) for the top 3 guys in the betting. Spieth is favorite at $9 and is coming off a missed cut at Sony while also plodding at Sentry. Hovland $11 also comes of Sentry and a T7, but has had most of January off otherwise. Fitzpatrick pops up here somewhat unexpectantly as he normally does the Dubai swing. $10 is far too short for someone I struggle to back normally. 

    This week lobbing 35 units on the above 7 for a 215 unit return.

    Also, have a hail mary bet of 0.6 units on the Hoge/McNealy forecase (Top 1 and 2) both ways at $441 to return 264.6 units.

    Outlay -36.2
    Season +256
    Nett 219.8 (36.2 alive)

    Good luck

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • detonatordetonator    4,368 posts
    Have had the pleasure of seeing Pebble Beach from a distance when visiting Carmel.
    The ocean makes for some spectacular scenery on some of the holes for sure.
    I remember reading a Stuart Appelby interview once when he was asked about Pebble Beach.
    He hated it and described the course  as a soggy mud heap. Lol 

    Good luck Bomber. Watching your progress as usual.
    :-B

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Well play has been suspended in Round 4 with a Monday (Tuesday here) finish.

    I have to admit, Ive given up the ghost. Only Brendan Todd was really in any sort of contention after round 2, but a -4 in round 3 got him to -8 at the start of round 4 only 4 shots back..

    He has continued on his merry way. As play stops, he has a birdie putt on hole 13 of 7 feet to get to -14, which is only one back of the leader Justin Rose, who sits on -15 with his ball in the fairlway on hole 10. 

    With 6 holes to play for Todd, if he can get in to the clubhouse at -17 tomorrow (needs 4 birdies in last 6 holes) he can suprisingly win. Even if he were able to post as club house leader and let them chase, that would make a lovely Tuesday morning (early) viewing.

    Heres hoping!

    Then its a quick turnwaround for the first elevated tournmant of the year, the WM Pheonix open. worth 20 million, it boasts a wonderful history (see Tiger 16th Hole 1997 Pheonix Open) and the most famous party hole in golf, the par 3 16th Stadium Hole.

    Hopefully Todd gets in done and we can roll into Pheonix and have a crack! 
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Well we come up just short with a T2 by Brendan Todd.

    He battled valiantly till the end. He came out with 2 birdies to put himself only 1 back of Rose and it was looking good. Unfortunatley, Rose decided to just strat nailing everything on the greens, hitting a 27 and 22 footer for birdie in the space of 3 holes and keeping the 3 shot lead. He misses those putts and the pressure goes direclty on him and weho knows. But it wasnt to be with Rose holding that 3 shot lead over the field to win for the first time in 4 years and give him his 10th PGA tour win. 

    This week -36.2

    Overall +219.8

    Wate Management thoughts soon!
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Waste Management Pheonix Open 2023

    The first real big boy event of the year, worth 20 million. The WM Pheonix is a party tournament, made even better this year as an elevated event with all the players joining in the fun.

    This is a major field, without the LIV turkeys. As it is a stacked field, it is an absolute minefield in startifying the field against couse history, statistical metrics and of course, odds available.

    Approach seems to be the higehst rating metric. Closely followed by Tee to Green.

    The odds suggest that Rory and Rahm will street the field. I think you wither bet those two ONLY, or steer clear from them. Im going to do the latter (sort of haha).

    First investment this week is 5 units on the Rory/Rahm Top 2 forecast (both ways). I feel this is a suitable way of playing these guys as I think they will be in contention at the end. 5 units at $29 grosses a 145 unit return.

    Now to the outrights. 

    Trying to nitpick every which way possible, Im playing 4 guys this week

    Scheffler ($13)- Defending champ who won this as his first PGA tour win and went on with it last year. As usual, the putter is the worry. I though he had rectified this at Sentry bowever at the AMEX it returned and put him out of the tournament, such is the fine line. He putts to tour averages and he is right up there at the end

    Morikawa ($18) - Is defineitly playing the best he has in 12 months with close up finishes in his first few starts this year. Doing everything right and i think with the 2 runs under his bet he is set for a big week. Ready to win.

    Cantlay ($23) - Interesting selection for me. Didnt like him originally but have come around to him. He is elite in all metrics except for the putter. Like Scheffler, when he is on fire with the putter he is an absolute demon, as shown in last years BMW at the Tour Championship. He was pipped by Scheffler last year and can go one better.

    Burns ($56) - Too good a price to pass up for Sammy Burns, who is trending in the right direction as well. Historically looking over the last 3-5 years, his wins have come after a recurring sequence. That sequence is Missed Cut, top 15, WIN. He is coming off a horrible Sentry (32/40, lost everywhere and if there was a cut he wuld have been gone), last start he eeked out a T11 at Amex where looking at his numbers he gained absolutely everywhere and consolidated his game after knocking off the rust at Sentry. A big showing would not surpise here and am bullish on him. Should be half the price, 

    Playing these 4 for 35 units at around $5.16 for a return of 180.58 units.

    Season +219.8

    This week -40

    Overall +179.8 units (40 alive)

    Good luck


    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    Approach seems to be the higehst rating metric. Closely followed by Tee to Green.






    Scheffler currently leads round 2 at -10, 2 shots clear from RAHMBO.

    Scheffler is rated 2nd on approach, 1st on tee to green and gaining 1 shot on the greens.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    We after a decent enough third round, Scheffler now leads by 2 shots from Rahm and Nick Taylor, with a further shot back from Adam Hadwin and Spieth. My other tip that made the cut, Burns sits back at -8 and will need a Sunday 62 to get anywhere near it. 

    So we cheering home Scheffler, who leads in approach, tee to green and Strokes gained overall. Significantly though, he is gaining nearly a stroke to the filed with the putter and that has been the difference, as I mentioned above

    "He putts to tour averages and he is right up there at the end"

    So cmon Scotty, make me a hero!!


    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Scottie goes back to back at WM Pheonix.


    It was a hard fought last round of golf. Canandian Nick taylor wasnt going away and was square with Scheffler coming to the par 5 13th hole. Taylor dutifully takes a birdie and goes 1 shot up. Then Scheffler bangs in a 22 foot eagle to take the lead by 1 shot and never be headed for the rest of the day, ultimately winning by 2 shots. It wasnt all plain sailing though. 

    On 15, the second par 5 on the back nine, Rahm dumped one into the water, pushing for the eagle as he was 4 shots back. That was his ending for the day. Taylor layed up and made a solid par, as did Scheffler. Big missed opportunity for Taylor. At the famous 16th, both taylor and scjheff went left of the green with Scottie pulling out an unbeleivable up and down to put the pressure on taylor, who duly missed a 6 footer for par and putting him 2 back.

    The last chance was the driveable par 4 17th. Scheffler bombs one up near the green, as does Tayloy. Taylor comes up shoirt on his pitch leaving himslef 12 feet for birdie. Scheffler sticks one to 3 feet. The nail in the coffin for Taylor came when hi putt which was roilling dead centre, veered at the last cm and did a full 360 out of the cup, emblematic of the last few holes and giving Scheffler a comfortable walk down 18 to go back to back at Pheonix. 

    This was a particularly satifying win from my perspective. Scheffler needed to do something with the putter this week to show up. He again lead the field in approach and tee to green metrics, which he has been doing consistently. After 2 rounds, he gained 1 shot on the filed on the greens. At the end of the tournament, he gained a whopping 4.157 strokes to the field on the greens. Inversley, he was only 53% in driving accuracy, which rings true for the saying, drive for show, putt for dough.

    And with that, a nice healthy injection of funds to the accounts with another 180.58 units jumping in and this is the 6th outright hit this season from 16 tournaments. 

    Season +179.8

    This week +180.58

    Overall  +360.38

    MASSIVE week coming up with the Genesis invitational at Riviera where the GOAT Tiger Woods will tee it up in his first PGA tour event since 2020. 

    More soon!


    detonator, Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Genesis Invitational - Riviera

    A big week again for the big dogs, another of the elevated events and a great primer for the Players Championship the following week. 

    As with last week, there needs to be a whole lotta nit picking going on to reveal who might show up this week. 

    Specific to the Riviera layout, Around the Green is one metric thats stands out as being impotant for low scoring. Also, greens in regulation and tee to green metrics are paramount. With these in mind a few names already spring to mind. 

    Course history for me also a big one. Horses for course isnt just an expression and there are a few of the big dogs who love it around here. Inversley, there a few who dont like it at all. 

    Rahm is a super skinny $7 favorite, from Rory $11 and Scheffler $12. Its hard to fathom that even after last week, Rahm continues to dominate the odds board after being, what I would say, was soundly beaten by Scheffler. Rahm is having some very minor off the tee issues and this alone puts me off these odds. Sure, at Sentry he was $7, but that was a 30 man field. This is 138 strong which leads to a heap more variance. To some extent its similar with Rory. There arent many holes in the game but he was woeful with the putter last week. statistical this shouldnt happen twice in a row for him, but at $11 coming off a T32 at Pheonix, no thanks. Also, he is paired with Tiger first few days and has openly talked about while he loves playing with the GOAT, it is extremely distracting.

    Ive settled on 3 guys this week near the top of the leaderboard to try and hit a second week running.

    Scheffler $12 - His all round game is now in sync and it is officially Scottie Season. 12 months ago he went on a tear, culminating in the Masters victory. Future me says this script plays out once again. He is playing too well to leave off an outright roster, as mentioned previously, his tee to green, approach and GIR are number 1 and now that the putter is confident, watch out, we could be in for another run like last year.

    Justin Thomas $19 - Ultra good price about Thomas, who last week, on quick inspection was very good with an outright 4th at Pheonix, 6 behind Scheffler. Dive a little deeper and his game steadily improved across the week ending with a sublime final round 65. After a disappointing round 1, he hit the range hard and i reckon worked a few things out which will hopefully traslate to a win here this week. He is paired with Tiger and Rory first two rounds and this i feel is a positive. 

    Max Homa $21 - Going back to the well with Max, who limped home last week in a frustrating last 2 weekend rounds by his standards (71-72). Has an excellent course history here and around the grren game to match. If he can keep it in the fairway off the tee, the rest will work itself out. 

    35 units here will nett gross you back 190.6 units returned.

    **BONUS BOMB**

    There has been a lot of talk about Jason Day this week and his resurgence back to some great form. While this is true, with a great 4 rounds last week getting him outright 5th place. His down fall was round 2 with a 71. His statistical metrics all where the best they have been for a long time. But he still couldnt get close to the winner. Diving deeper, he has a horrible record around here, with 4 missed cuts and a t64 and t62. This is horrible reading and I feel the hype around his game at the moment, while warranted, lends itself to finding some value if his history here was to continue.

    5 units J Day Miss Cut at 3.25. Gross 16.25 units return

    Overall +360.38

    This week -40

    Nett +320.38 (40 alive)

    Good luck

    Gilgamesh, detonator likes this post.

  • GilgameshGilgamesh    4,779 posts
    Great start Bomber.

    detonator likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Thanks Gilga

    A very nice round by Homa over night and carded a first round leading 64, to be equal with Kevin Mitchell. It was a shaky start for Max, who found him self in the green side bunker for 2 on the driveable par 4 - 10th hole. Looking at potential bogey, he chipped in to get his round off to a flyer.
    JT carded a 68 and Scheffler a 70. JT was solid enough and handled to crowds and spotlight that Tiger brings to their group. Scheffler putter was cold and I expect a few hours on the green after the round were had.

    Speaking of Tiger, he birdied his last 3 holes to finish -2 for the day. If you get a chance, watch the replay of the last few holes, stirring viewing. Another decent round and he'll amazingly make the cut.

    And speaking of cut, Day carded a +1 score today to be sitting 2 shots out of the cutline. While I love J Day, I love money better and him to miss the cut would be a nice mid round boost of funds.

    Tiger off way so will get some viewing in before midnight.

    detonator, Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    3 rounds down and Rahm has taken charge of the tournament with a 3 shot lead after 54 holes.

    Homa held a 1 stroke lead over Rahm at the halfway mark, compounding with a bogey to finish to let the big man get closer.

    It was all square after 13 holes in round 3, with Rahm playing the last 5 holes -1 while Homa stumbled with a couple of bogies. It must be noted, Rahm has been unbelievably lucky this whole tournament, getting favourable bounces of trees, lies and even free drops left right and centre.

    My wallet says that his luck has to run out sooner or later, hopefully during round 4. My head says he'll win easily as a 3 shot gap is tough to make up, let alone when you are chasing Rahm. But if Homa can get one back early and put some pressure on, that will be the key. Homa is also a previous winner. Unfortunately for Max, the first hole is a reachable Par 5 and Rahm has Eagle making form on this hole. If he does this, it's over early.

    C'mon Max, being it home.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Rahm about to seal the deal.

    Homa actually lead after 12 holes by 1 shot and it was looking great. Then a bogey on 13 squared it back up with Rahm, who then bombed a 50 footer on 14 to go 1 ahead. A neat hole in one on 16 pretty much sealed it.

    Now, max taps in for par on 17 after leaving it in the bunker and Rahm has a birdie putt. Filthy.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    2 starts ago at Farmer's I had Rahm to win and Homa got the job done.

    This week I'm on Homa and yep, Jon Rahm steals the show.

    Honda this week. Absolutely terrible field comparibly where last year I was on Daniel Berger, who squandered at 5 shot lead going into the last day.

    Where there a tournament, there are winners to find. More soon
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    The Honda is upon us.

    Not an elevated event on the PGA tour which unfortunately means a terrible field comparibly to the last few weeks. It's a shame, because Honda has been synonymous with the best players up until recently. PGA national is one of the hardest courses on tour, with the famous 3 hole bear trap bringing many a player unstuck. There are 16 of the 18 holes where a player can find the water, so nobody is safe. Again, it's a shame because the best players in the world should play the hardest courses.

    Anyway, Sepp Straka defends his title, narrowly beating Shane Lowry last year, who had an absolute brain malfunction when the rain started to come down. I was on Daniel Berger, who started the day with a 5 stroke lead but lost it early and never gained it back. But I digress, this has been long forgotten ;)

    As with any field like this,.nuggets of gold need to be found with a lot of digging. Straight up, I can't have Sungjae Im at $7. That is poison. As are most of the players in the 10-20 range.

    My team starts in the 20s and goes out to the 70s.

    Originally I was playing 5 players, however in the last 24 hours, one of them has been scratched with money refunded.

    Players as follows

    Alex Noren $26
    Chris Kirk $26
    Mon Woo Lee $29
    Lee Hodges $51
    SH Kim $71

    All rate well with the putter and off the tee. These seem to be the most important stats this week. Diving a little further, each has come into some form on their respective tours and also have history here.

    As it is an off week, I'm investing 25 units at the above prices to return 172.3 units.

    Update
    +320.38

    This week
    -25

    Overall
    +295.38 (25 alive)

    Good luck

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • detonatordetonator    4,368 posts
    Looking good Bomber.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    It's de ja vu from last year.

    Chris Kirk holds a 2 shot lead heading into round 4 and is now the 2.10 favourite. This lead can evaporate in the blink of an eye and he will need all his nerve to hold off the challenges. He did look shaky coming in after his third round, even though he birdied the last two holes, he missed some sort putts and got really lucky with a drop on the last after basically shaking it into the grandstand.

    C'mon Chris, be a hero for me !
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    9 holes down and Kirk maintains a 2 shot lead. He has been playing solidly. Hi playing partner Cole is putting his lights out to stay in the hunt, having 7 one putts on the front holing over 100 feet already.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    And only after 3 holes on the back, Kirk now trails by 1 shot with him going +1 and Cole -2

    Game over and the de ja vu kicks in
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Absolute shambolic last few holes from both players. We are headed to a playoff.

    Kirk with a one shot lead on the last, blasts a driver down the middle. All he needs to do is lay up with a long iron and get up and down, or at worst, a par. Instead, takes the fucking wood out and puts it in the drink.
    Similarly, Cole is Greenside for 2 and knocks his chip over the green, luckily been stopped by the rough. He gets a 5. Kirk narrowly misses a 16 footer to win and now they are going to a playoff.


    What a sweat.

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

Sign In or Register to comment.