Hi mate, yes I have a small crack each week on Draftstars AU. The data package I have goes in major depth on this but I dont use it at all near its full capability. In the past year I have actually won overall once (about $1000 back for $15 entry). I literally play 2-3 teams but people play up to 150 teams! Its a rabbit hole ive been down but never committed to. People are doing this as their "job".
My wheelhouse is the rapidfire section of draftstars, normally released day off the tournament. Its basically a head to head matchup bet where 3/5 correct will gross 1.8x your money while a 5/5 correct will get you 20x your money back. These to me seem the more realistic option for long term success.
The world of fantasy golf (well fantasy anything) is MASSIVE in the US.
If you are keen I can certainly run a few things to give you an idea of lineups that might be worth playing. As you know, when there is a salary cap involved it makes things more reliant on luck with the lower owned and costed players in the field.
Alright, Texas Valero. The prelude to THE tournament, THE MASTERS.
This years renewal doesnt have the field it has had previously, which is a consequence of these designated events. Most of the big dogs are taking this week to do their final preps for Augusta. but for one lucky person, the Valero is a chance to make the field, as JJ Spaun did last season.
TPC San Antonio presents one of the most challenging tee-to-green tests of the season. This has lead to breakout performances from relative unknowns, last year no exception.
The betting is lead by the angry leprachaun, Tyrrell Hatton at a very skinny $12. This is based on his great finish at the Players a few weeks back. He didnt get out of his group at the MatchPlay and had some hand/wrist issues. He might well win, but he is a massive fade for mine this week. Im looking further down the board with some old favorites and some new blood.
Best metrics to success here lie with around the green game and putting. Ive also incorporated an accuracy and greens in regulation metric in my analysis to try and stratify the field further.
My lineup and prices as follows
Rickie Fowler $21 Si Woo Kim $23 JJ Spaun $36 Andrew Putnam $41 Nicolai Hojgaard $61 Sam Ryder $61
Chop out price here is $5.90. Spending 20 units total for 118 units returned.
Its last chance for Fowler to get into the Masters. It would be the fairytale his fans are after, he comes he with 9 cheques in a row and played well at the Matchplay, beating Rahm. Hes been in semi contention in the designated events and finds an easier assignment here. He has flourished since changing caddie AND his irons. Similarly, Si Woo has been playing well and rates well in metrics tested. JJ Spaun a semi auto bet being the defiending champ and also putting on a ball striking clinic at the match play. The results didnt translate but he was hitting as well as anyone. The last 3 are a bit of a gamle, Putnam rates well overall here specifically, Hojgaard put in a classy 2nd placing last week and makes the list due to his green in regulation, length and accuaracy stats where he leads the field. +80% greens in reg with an average 324 off the tee is filthy stuff. Finally, the best rated putter in the filed by my analysis is Ryder, who almost won the Farmers if it werent for a rampaging Jon Rahm.
There it is. We come Majors season, hopefully with a fill up this week.
Round 1 finally in the books and Corey Connors sets the pace with a blistering 64. He is 2 shots clear of the rest of the field.
Best of my blokes is SiWoo, he is at -3 but could easily have been a -6 round of it weren't for a few putts going down and some careless shot making. JJ Spain sits at -2 while the rest are at -1 with Hojgaard at Even.
Sam Ryder worth a spec in my opinion. He started terribly yesterday and came home with 4 birdies in the last 5 holes, which should have been 5 in a row idf not for a 3 foot miss. A lot of work for them all though to catch CorCon.
Yet another close call overnight, with Sam Ryder finishing T3, 2 shots behind winner Corey Connors. He had his chance too, missing a 3 foot putt with a bogey on 13 and then parring the easy par 5 14th. He then had 2 birdies coming in but unfortunately when you are a few back you cannot make even one error.
So once again close but no cigar and we just move on. .
Masters week. Will be delving into things tonight.
Nantz will be signing off this year after 32 years in the game. Also returning to the chair is Nick Faldo to complement regulars Trevor Immelman and Ian Baker Finch.
As with any major, the elite of the elite have come together in a reduced field 87 man event. The field is headlined by none other than last years winner Scheffler, who returns in a vein of from not dissimilar to last season. Rory and Rahm round out the top 3 and then we have a swathe of players between the 15 and 41 mark, all with some winning hope.
Augusta National plays a par 72 and this year will play a longer at 7545 yards. This is due to the lengthening of the Par 5 13th hole with a new tee that sits 40 yards back from the previous tee box. Players will now have to thread the needle through a chute created by trees on both sides of the tee box. This stops players from trying to cut the corner as previous and last year, the hole played the easiest on the course. I expect this will change this year with players likely to have to play to a number rather than going for the green in 2.
As usual with majors, and specifically at The Masters (because this is where they ONLY PLAY this tournmant), a deep dive into the course metrics provides a couple of metrics that clearly stand out. First an foremost, weighted strokes gained TEE to GREEN is the most important statistic by a mile here, rating 2 overall against 50 correlated stats to success on the PGA Tour. Following this, Around the Green rates at 6 and then Off the tee rates a 7 in importance.
Using these statistical metrics, it is clear and cut who is abouve the rest. And it is not even close.
Overall, Scheffler rates on top of the pile when it comes to strokes gained overall and tee to green. His adjusted fit score of 5.84 is far and away the best here.
At $8 for the win and $2.30 for a top 7 finish, you could just stop right there and happily get a run for your money. Nothing suggest that Scheffler wont be contending come Sunday, having an elite course history, recent history and statistical ranking.
Outside of Scheffler, there are a couple of players that have caught my interest based on stats and also history.
Obviously Rahm and Rory both rate highly in different categories, but there just seems to be a chink in their armour at the moment and the prices do not really reflect this. Rory at $8 is poison I feel. He played well at the match play ad hasnt really put a foot wrong other than a missed cut at the players and a couple of top 30 finishes before that. Likewise, Rahmbo has stuggled last 3
starts, not getting out of his group at the matchplay, WDing from the Players and a T39 at the API. At $10 he is also worth the risk. I will say that being dynamic in this situation can have its benefits. They might be worth a sheckle or two after round one or is they make the cut on the number.
One guy I backed last year and intrigues me is Cameron Smith. He has been a bit of a out of sight, out of mind for me as I do not follow the LIV Golf closely. His results are a little scratchy so its hard to make out what his game is doing at the moment. What we can see is that he has elite course history here with 4 top 10s from 6 starts. His putter is unbeleivable. Reports are his driver is going really well. We also know his ball striking is as good as anyone going around. While the LIV golf results dont inspire confidence, I think getting back to a scenario here at the Masters where he is comfortbale and has great history could be a spark this week. At $26 I'm willing to have him in my line up this week.
The third guy im going to back is Sungjae Im. He had a fair matchplay tournament, which is hard to gauge, but before that he was killing it, with a T6 at the Players and a T21 at the API. He opened with a 75 at the Players and still managed to finish righ up there, whicle at API he was solid across the board. He is a player that can be going along under the radar and then in the space of nine holes can be right up there in the firing line. When he gets hot he is hot. He is ranked 3rd in Par 5 scoring average overall, which is vital because par 5 scoring at Augusta is one of the single most impotant statistics to success.
The last guy im adding is up on the odds board, but it is more to do with feeling rather than hard data. Im adding Spieth to the mix. He is an enigma and a previous winner here. How he hasnt won more I do not know, maybe thats the whole enigma thing. Before the match play, he absolutely crushed it Tee to Green in his previous 3 starts and it just seems to be a lapse in concentration and focus at a point which doesnt necesarily derail him, but is enough to stop him from winning. I can see him being there art the end on Sunday and he is one of those plays that I have to add as I could not handle him being in contention Sunday without my money on.
Some statistical nuggest provided by Justin Ray on Twitter can be found here
So in all, we cant back them all and there are certainly a ton of players i havent mentioned. Also, there are a ton of opportunities with top 20s etc and the dreaded "same tournmant multis" now available!
But here is my plays
40 units out
Scheffler 20.8 units at $8
Spieth 8.75 units at $19
Smith 6.4 units at $26
Sungjae Im 4.05 units at $41
Returns 166.33 units.
Year to date +513.2
This week -40
Overall +473.2 (40 alive)
Will have some draftstars thoughts and lineups later in the week for thos with an interest in fantasy betting. Until then
Round 1 in the books and I watched every second of it.
There are 3 tied for the lead at -7, Victor Hovland, Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka.
Hovland went bang early in the round with an eagle at the second hole, backing this up with a rejuvenation of his short game, both with the chipping and the putting. It was a masterclass. Can he keep it up? The bookies think not and have him at $10.
RAHMBO had a disaster of a start. He double bogeyed the first hole, however he was on the green in 2. He 4 putted the first hole! From there, a fire was lit, and he went 9 under through his next 17 holes. He now is installed the 3.25 favourite.
Lastly, it was a return to Majors form for Brooks. He played near flawless golf which looked casual and comfortable, and we saw that swagger return. He was backed from $90+ during last week's LIV event into mid 30s and duly saluted. Now fit, he looks to have rekindled that old spark. He is at $6 now.
My 4 guys finished under par, the best being Scheffler at 4 under. Unbelievably, he LOST 3.5 strokes to the field with the putter and couldn't hit a putt to save his life. His approach game was unbelievable, giving himself tons of birdie chances. He just could not hit a putt. If he rectifies this he will win by 5 shots. No doubt. Currently around 4.50 now.
Spieth was also a nightmare and finished with -3. He put two in the water on the back nine with some dumb decisions and asni said in the preview, he is an enigma for that very reason. Can be brilliant one minute then a total spid the next. He too can win from here if he just listens to his caddie Greller. It's a tough watch the Speith experience.
Cam Smith played solid. Putted well, missed maybe 1 or two from range that could have easily fallen in. With the first round done hopefully it has calmed a few nerves if any and will be more free flowing like his mullet on Day 2.
Lastly, Sungjae was OK, shooting -1 for the day and having a few careless bogies here and there. I expect him to make the cut but with the later tee time with Smith on Day 2 they might cop the weather incoming.
Well Rd 2 in the books finally on day 3. Absolute carnage with the conditions with the cut out to +3...
Scheffler,in the better conditions, shoots +3 and continued the putting woes. He sits at -1 and has played himself out the tournament
Spieth scraped a -2 on the day and sits my best at-5, 7 behind Koepka.
Sungjae made the cut on the number at +3, so he is dead as far as outrights are concerned. Smith bogeyed the last for a 72 and sits -2.
Round 3 has just started, so let's hope Spieth exhibits his enigmatic game to make up shots on the leaders. Should be another round of absolutely horrible conditions!
It was his 4th win this season and 1st major. Hindsight shouldacoupdawoulda
"He is the best player and Im tipping him to have a massive year. I reckon he can win 5 times and get a major somewhere. He can start fast and keep the foot on the gas, but he can also have an early "bad" round and still explode on the weekend, such is his elite game. The Top 5 price is what sold me with Tabtouch, being the best out there."
Unfortunately, no go at the Masters. It was a memorable last round still, even for my blokes.
Jordan Spieth proved my enigma tag in spades. He shot a Sunday 66 to get to -7 and that was with a bogey on the last hole. He made a couple of errors on the back nine and could have easily got to clubhouse leader at -10. But alas, he draws you in and then slaps you in the dick, making fatal mistakes at crucial moments. His playing partner Phil Mickleson was even more impressive, getting to the clubhouse lead at -8. At 52 years of age, he finished T2 in the masters 31 years after first competing. As someone put it, thats like Jon Rahm finishing T2 in the Masters of 2048. Amazing and won back a few hearts i reckon this week gone.
Scheffler also continues to play out of his skin and lose it on the greens. After12 holes in the last round Sunday, he got to -6 with 6 holes to play and I was absolutely frothing at his come back and I actually held hope for him if he could come home with some birdies and an eagle. He then had a double soon after which killed his chances.
Sungjae Im amazingly also had his chances in the back nine. He was on fire as well. But faltered when mattered most.
It proves you can make mistakes late.
Thats exactly what Brooks did with a final round 75. I actually dont think he choked per se, but he was definitely hampered by slow play in front of him by Patrick Cantlay. Brooks is renowned for playing quickly and keeping his mojo but was waiting on every single shot. This is a proven strategy against him, him admitting Phil used it against him in the 2021 PGA Championship. Whatever Brooks has done in the last few years, his injuries, move to LIV etc, it is super awesome to have "Majors Brooks" back in town, now injury "free".
But the spoils went to the bull, Rahm. He 4 putted the first hole of the masters and then never looked back. I watched him do that and almost rang up to have a bet on the $21 on offer. Hindsight 20/20. He was relentless, winning by 4 in the end and he had the "bad" side of the draw. I said earlier in the year I was bullish on him and while I have won twice with him, Ive also missed him twice, most annoyingly the major I predicted. But I stick to my guns when I say I absolutely got bent over a barrel with Scheffler this week on the greens. He lost nearly 4 shots putting and was last in the field. Notable, he had his best tee to green and ball striking rounds of the season and he had his second best off the tee, around the green and appraoch numbers. Literally if he putts to tour average he wins, plain and simple.
Facts remain, though, he didnt win. And we move on.
These entries are in the PGA 20K+ Masters tournament. Each entry is $15
Team 1 ($99,710) Sungjae Im Jordan Spieth Harris English Scottie Scheffler Cameron Smith Scott Stallings
Team 2 ($99,690) Chris Kirk Jordan Spieth Min Woo Lee Scottie Scheffler Cameron Smith Kazuki Higa
Team 3 ($98,080) Sungjae Im Jordan Spieth Mito Pereira Min Woo Lee Cameron Smith Kurt Kitayama
Team 4 (99,900) Scottie Scheffler Sungjae Im Jordan Spieth Kurt Kitayama Chris Kirk Tom Kim
Also having a crack at the RAPIDFIRE competition. 3/5 wins 1.8x money while a clean sweep 5/5 gets you 20x your money.
$50 on 3/5. $20 on 5/5.
Scheffler to beat McIlroy Spieth to beat Cantlay Smith to beat Day Schauffele to beat DJ Morikawa to beat Hovland
For those interested, Team 1 came 377th out of 2111 people with 401.5 points and $30.96. Team 4 came 500th and also netted $30.96 with 389 points. The other two teams didnt score enough to register a return.
Got 3/5 in the rapid fire, returning $90 for the 3/5 and $0 back for the 5/5.
Scheffler BEAT Mcilroy 73 - 24
Spieth BEAT Cantlay 97.5 - 59.5
Smith LOST to Day 58.5 - 59.5
Schauffele BEAT Johnson 70 - 52.5
Morikawa LOST to Hovland 68-85
so $130 invested for $152 returned. Not terrible, could have been better but could have been a lot worse.
No major hangover here, with another newly designated event for the players worth a cool 20 million. Most of the big dogs are showing up with a notable WD from Rory.
Last year, Spieth came from behind to beat Cantlay in a playoff win for the plaid tartan jacket after a mediocre Masters. He finished T4 at the Masters and spoiler alert, I won't be on him this week. normally means a W incoming. But Im willing to risk, especially after his comments about his hectic schedule and playing too much. He sounds like he is showing up because he us defending and it is now a designated event. A missed cut wouldn't surprise. Nor would a win.
But i digress. The biggest of dawgs, Rahm and Scheffler are playing. Their competitive nature won't allow them to fail here and they are a top of the odds board at 8.50 and10 respectively. Another spoiler alert. They are in the selections this week.
Course key metrics here are Approach rated 4/50 and then driving accuracy, at 11/50, which i lump into Off the tee category. It is essentially a ball strikers paradise.
Looking at the numbers, it becomes fairly clear fairly quickly. Scheffler and to a lesser extent Rahn are far and away the best in all categories. Notable Scheffler is way ahead of Rahm in most categories...except putting of course. Oh and now major wins.
Im taking Rahm for a save here this week. He might well win again, and why not? But the 8.50 is short coming off a Masters slog in the last group. He is worth the save and I am risking 4.71 units for 30 return.
Now the non save bets. My guys are as follows
Scheffler 11.02 units at $10 for 110.17 return
Morikawa 5.35 units at $21 for 110.17 return
Max Homa 4.79 units at $23 for 110.17 return
Cam Young 4.24 units at $26 for 110.17 return
Going again with Scheffler. He is striking it amazing. His putter is ice cold, but he returns to POA greens after having his best putting tournament of the year by winning WM Pheonix (POA), Second best putting tournament this year? Genesis Invitational at Riviera, also POA greens. I'm clutching maybe here, but as a pro I assume he can work **** out this week. He just needs to 0 putt to win. Can't be that hard, right?
Morikawa is an iron striking machine, also with flat stick issues. But give a guy like that enough chances and he will win soon. Has shown glimpses this year.
Max Homa can't be denied, having a 2 win season already. He rates best on approach HERE at this tournament, so cannot be ignored. Overall for the season, he rates second best in approach overall to Scheffler and in front of Morikawa. That speaks volumes to his chances.
Lastly, I'm adding Cameron Young as a speculative bet. He rates #1 off the tee and his latest results fantastic and playing in a vein of form that is comparable to the best in the world. He hasn't won on tour yet, but like Zalatoris last year, he can have his first win a big tournament like this no problem. He was there abouts last week at Augusta and just faultered late.
Homa has played deplorable and missed the cut. He was dead from hole 1 on Thursday, just looked drained and in need of a break.
All my group started slowly. Rahm was +1 after round 1 and Scheffler was at -3. Morikawa was also +1 and lastly Cam Young was around even.
Round 2 Rahm and Scheffler turned up with rounds of the day of -7 and -6 to sit -6 and -9. Morikawa finished at -2 and Cam Young birdied 4 of the last 6 holes to make the cut (-2).
Now, Morikawa started with a bang being -3 through 5 holes and getting to -5. He has given a few back and the putter is killing him. He is rated near last in putting, missing absolutely everything. He now sits at -3 through 11 today. Can Young at -1 through 4 holes today and is at -4 overall....he has killed his game by not scoring on the par 5s, which with his length should be an advantage. I'm hoping he can fire up for a top 5 finish with top 5 being the last leg of a 3 leg racing multi today.
My hopes lie with Scheffler and Rahm and ideally Scheffler beats Rahm in a playoff.
Cam Young stumbles to -4 after getting to -6 early on. Forget him.
Morikawa sits at -7, 7 back of leader Matt Fitzpatrick. A frustrating watch mid round, he was on way then a few bogies brought him back to earth after 9 holes. Reeled off 4 birdies in a row on the back and could have easily been a few more. Too far back to win I feel.
Rahm started with 3 straight birdies and looked like he was going to go full terminator mode. Then he has a double bogey on hole 4 to undo all that way work. He plugged home to finish -2 for the day and be sitting at -8. Still a chance at 6 shots back. Only Rahm though could win from here.
Scheffler is up there T4 and -11. A late bogey dropped him back a shot so he sits three back. That dropped shot was disappointing as he would have been paired in the second last grouping with Spieth. On the plus side he can sit in the back ground and if he gets it rolling early and puts the pressure on, he can win. A very live chance.
Been a semi lean patch of late so please Scottie, beam me up!
Well no go AGAIN this week and I feel I was pretty stiff!
Eventual winner Fitzpatrick and Spieth fought out a 3 hole playoff with all the drama you could ask. They both finished at -17 and on the first playoff hole, Spieth lips out an absolute heartbreaker that looked in the whole way and would have gave him the back to back win. Similarly on the second playoff hole, he just missed by the barest of margins again to win after putting his tee shot within about 15 feet. To the third playoff hole and both players drive their ball in the fairway and it was Fitzpatrick who stick a nine iron to under a foot to put the pressure on Spieth. It was too great, he squirted his shot long and then missed the return 25 footer to give Fitzpatrick his second PGA tour win.
I wasn't too upset that Fitz won, he's not one of mine. I would have spewed if Spieth won. But ultimately, Scheffler absolutely knifed himself out of things by his own hand (or putter that is).
Never mind the display for the first three days, where he was rated near last on the greens, but still only 3 back. Come round 4, he started with a tap on birdie to get to -12. Then he stiffs one to 3 feet on the par 5 for 3, only to miss the short putt to get to -13. Hole 3, he nails a 15 footer for birdie. Come th par 3 4th, he puts his tee shot 13 feet from the hole to miss that and then coming to the 5 th hole par 5, he again has a tap on birdie which he misses. Literally 2 feet. Those two short misses alone puts him tied for the Elad after 5 holes and the motivation is certain to be different. Instead, he plods in and shoots -1 for the day, finishing 5 back. Mega frustrating as he is by far the best tee to green player in the world by a mile.
RAHMBO was just too far back to challenge and the other plodders did just that. Morikawa showed glimpses of brilliance but ultimately he isn't firing like to upper echelon of the Rahma and Schefflers. Cam Young was deplorable on the end. The guy can beat anyone in the world on his day but this was not a tournament he seemed comfortable with at any stage, mainly on the greens.
And with that, we go to a lull and the Zurich Classic team event. It should be the Cantlay/Schaufele benefit and will be interested to see what price they come up with. Their challenges will be the team of Burns/Horshal and the new Homa/Morikawa (Homakawa) team.
Short and sweet this week, on the road again but South this week!
Zurich classic. I've been saying it's the Cantlay/Schaufele benefit and I'm sticking to my guns.
20 units at $4.35
87 return.
These two gel so well and are coming off a very close finish at Heritage. Single bullet week.
Value lies with Burns and Horshal at $21 if that's more your jam. Or to a lesser extent, Homa/Morikawa at $8, who certainly have the ability but have let me down of very recently.
A few bonus bets that will be included in the kitty
LPGA Chevron Championship My girl Atthaya Thitikul has a great chance to get back in the winners circle off a short break. 2 units at $13 for 26 collect.
LIV Adelaide The circus comes to town and I'm having an each way go at the top clown, Phil Mickelson at $67. Comes off a Master's second and is striking it as well as ever. 1.5 units each way for 121.8 collect
Any idea who is showing the LIV tournament Bomber?
No great odds and only because it's in Oz I'll be having a punt on Smithy, i probably should back cupcake(Koepka)too but I'll stay loyal and just back our bogan Aussie.
Fair to say other than popping my head in here once in a while i haven't followed or watched any golf at all.
Apologies for the late recaps, I'm still feeling from still puking in the sickbag across the 3 bets I've had this week
1. Cantlay and Schaufele. Lose by 4 strokes. Have the lowest score in the alternate shot section compared to the best ball section in history of tournament, never done before. The best ball part is the easy part and they played that across two rounds in -12. The top 10 average was -17. They lose by 4. They also played the 4 x par 5s in +1. Compared to other teams who at least birdied 3/4 of them.
2. Phil Mickelson. Cruising at -11 in the last round and in the top 10, he has 11 holes to play. 2 x Double bogeys in succession put him back to -7. Plays the final 9 holes in -5 to finish at -12. 1 shot out of the top 10 and 3 shots out of outright 2nd. Plays the double bogeys holes in even and he runs second.
3. Atthaya Thitikul on the LPGA Chevron championship. Backed her at $13. She is 3 back going to the last round. After 9 holes she is leading at -10. Gets to hole 18 still at -10 and is 1 behind the leader who is in the final group 2 holes back. The group on front has Lila Vu, who birdied the last two holes to be in the clubhouse at -10. Thitikul needs at worse a par to tie the clubhouse lead going into the east last hole, a par 5. Bombs a drive to the rough. Lays up to a perfect wedge number. Has a 125 yard wedge shot over water into the par 5 for 3, with a massive grandstand behind the green, which she can use as a backboard, because of temporary immovable obstruction relief, whereby if she goes long and is up against it, gets a free drop. Ie it's the play to make when hitting over water. Proceeds to put her wedge into the water and then takes double bogeys and falls to -8. The nail in the coffin is that the leader in the last group shits the bed and does the same thing, forcing a playoff at -10, which she loses to Lila Vu.
Comments
Gilgamesh likes this post.
This years renewal doesnt have the field it has had previously, which is a consequence of these designated events. Most of the big dogs are taking this week to do their final preps for Augusta. but for one lucky person, the Valero is a chance to make the field, as JJ Spaun did last season.
TPC San Antonio presents one of the most challenging tee-to-green tests of the season. This has lead to breakout performances from relative unknowns, last year no exception.
The betting is lead by the angry leprachaun, Tyrrell Hatton at a very skinny $12. This is based on his great finish at the Players a few weeks back. He didnt get out of his group at the MatchPlay and had some hand/wrist issues. He might well win, but he is a massive fade for mine this week. Im looking further down the board with some old favorites and some new blood.
Best metrics to success here lie with around the green game and putting. Ive also incorporated an accuracy and greens in regulation metric in my analysis to try and stratify the field further.
My lineup and prices as follows
Rickie Fowler $21
Si Woo Kim $23
JJ Spaun $36
Andrew Putnam $41
Nicolai Hojgaard $61
Sam Ryder $61
Chop out price here is $5.90. Spending 20 units total for 118 units returned.
Its last chance for Fowler to get into the Masters. It would be the fairytale his fans are after, he comes he with 9 cheques in a row and played well at the Matchplay, beating Rahm. Hes been in semi contention in the designated events and finds an easier assignment here. He has flourished since changing caddie AND his irons. Similarly, Si Woo has been playing well and rates well in metrics tested. JJ Spaun a semi auto bet being the defiending champ and also putting on a ball striking clinic at the match play. The results didnt translate but he was hitting as well as anyone. The last 3 are a bit of a gamle, Putnam rates well overall here specifically, Hojgaard put in a classy 2nd placing last week and makes the list due to his green in regulation, length and accuaracy stats where he leads the field. +80% greens in reg with an average 324 off the tee is filthy stuff. Finally, the best rated putter in the filed by my analysis is Ryder, who almost won the Farmers if it werent for a rampaging Jon Rahm.
There it is. We come Majors season, hopefully with a fill up this week.
Current +533.2
This week -20
Overall +513.2 Units (20 alive)
Best of luck
Gilgamesh likes this post.
Best of my blokes is SiWoo, he is at -3 but could easily have been a -6 round of it weren't for a few putts going down and some careless shot making. JJ Spain sits at -2 while the rest are at -1 with Hojgaard at Even.
Sam Ryder worth a spec in my opinion. He started terribly yesterday and came home with 4 birdies in the last 5 holes, which should have been 5 in a row idf not for a 3 foot miss. A lot of work for them all though to catch CorCon.
So once again close but no cigar and we just move on.
.
Masters week. Will be delving into things tonight.
Gilgamesh likes this post.
jum, Gilgamesh, detonator likes this post.
H-BOMBER, Gilgamesh likes this post.
These entries are in the PGA 20K+ Masters tournament. Each entry is $15
Team 1 ($99,710)
Sungjae Im
Jordan Spieth
Harris English
Scottie Scheffler
Cameron Smith
Scott Stallings
Team 2 ($99,690)
Chris Kirk
Jordan Spieth
Min Woo Lee
Scottie Scheffler
Cameron Smith
Kazuki Higa
Team 3 ($98,080)
Sungjae Im
Jordan Spieth
Mito Pereira
Min Woo Lee
Cameron Smith
Kurt Kitayama
Team 4 (99,900)
Scottie Scheffler
Sungjae Im
Jordan Spieth
Kurt Kitayama
Chris Kirk
Tom Kim
Also having a crack at the RAPIDFIRE competition. 3/5 wins 1.8x money while a clean sweep 5/5 gets you 20x your money.
Spieth to beat Cantlay
Smith to beat Day
Schauffele to beat DJ
Morikawa to beat Hovland
Gilgamesh likes this post.
There are 3 tied for the lead at -7, Victor Hovland, Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka.
Hovland went bang early in the round with an eagle at the second hole, backing this up with a rejuvenation of his short game, both with the chipping and the putting. It was a masterclass. Can he keep it up? The bookies think not and have him at $10.
RAHMBO had a disaster of a start. He double bogeyed the first hole, however he was on the green in 2. He 4 putted the first hole! From there, a fire was lit, and he went 9 under through his next 17 holes. He now is installed the 3.25 favourite.
Lastly, it was a return to Majors form for Brooks. He played near flawless golf which looked casual and comfortable, and we saw that swagger return. He was backed from $90+ during last week's LIV event into mid 30s and duly saluted. Now fit, he looks to have rekindled that old spark. He is at $6 now.
My 4 guys finished under par, the best being Scheffler at 4 under. Unbelievably, he LOST 3.5 strokes to the field with the putter and couldn't hit a putt to save his life. His approach game was unbelievable, giving himself tons of birdie chances. He just could not hit a putt. If he rectifies this he will win by 5 shots. No doubt. Currently around 4.50 now.
Spieth was also a nightmare and finished with -3. He put two in the water on the back nine with some dumb decisions and asni said in the preview, he is an enigma for that very reason. Can be brilliant one minute then a total spid the next. He too can win from here if he just listens to his caddie Greller. It's a tough watch the Speith experience.
Cam Smith played solid. Putted well, missed maybe 1 or two from range that could have easily fallen in. With the first round done hopefully it has calmed a few nerves if any and will be more free flowing like his mullet on Day 2.
Lastly, Sungjae was OK, shooting -1 for the day and having a few careless bogies here and there. I expect him to make the cut but with the later tee time with Smith on Day 2 they might cop the weather incoming.
Gilgamesh likes this post.
Scheffler,in the better conditions, shoots +3 and continued the putting woes. He sits at -1 and has played himself out the tournament
Spieth scraped a -2 on the day and sits my best at-5, 7 behind Koepka.
Sungjae made the cut on the number at +3, so he is dead as far as outrights are concerned. Smith bogeyed the last for a 72 and sits -2.
Round 3 has just started, so let's hope Spieth exhibits his enigmatic game to make up shots on the leaders. Should be another round of absolutely horrible conditions!
Spieth has shat the bed, is +3 through 8 holes. No surprised really.
Scheffler is -2 and sits at -3 for the tournament
Im is -3 for the day through 8 holes and is back to even.
Cam Smith is +1 on the day and is at -1.
They all have to catch Brooks at -13 who is now 4 shots ahead of Rahm at -9.
Could not be going any worse for me really for this tournament!
I was on Brooks last year. He was 90 into 36 this year after the LIV win. The writing was on the wall!
It was his 4th win this season and 1st major. Hindsight shouldacoupdawoulda
"He is the best player and Im tipping him to have a massive year. I reckon he can win 5 times and get a major somewhere. He can start fast and keep the foot on the gas, but he can also have an early "bad" round and still explode on the weekend, such is his elite game. The Top 5 price is what sold me with Tabtouch, being the best out there."
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detonator, Gilgamesh likes this post.
Homa has played deplorable and missed the cut. He was dead from hole 1 on Thursday, just looked drained and in need of a break.
All my group started slowly. Rahm was +1 after round 1 and Scheffler was at -3. Morikawa was also +1 and lastly Cam Young was around even.
Round 2 Rahm and Scheffler turned up with rounds of the day of -7 and -6 to sit -6 and -9. Morikawa finished at -2 and Cam Young birdied 4 of the last 6 holes to make the cut (-2).
Now, Morikawa started with a bang being -3 through 5 holes and getting to -5. He has given a few back and the putter is killing him. He is rated near last in putting, missing absolutely everything. He now sits at -3 through 11 today. Can Young at -1 through 4 holes today and is at -4 overall....he has killed his game by not scoring on the par 5s, which with his length should be an advantage. I'm hoping he can fire up for a top 5 finish with top 5 being the last leg of a 3 leg racing multi today.
My hopes lie with Scheffler and Rahm and ideally Scheffler beats Rahm in a playoff.
Cam Young stumbles to -4 after getting to -6 early on. Forget him.
Morikawa sits at -7, 7 back of leader Matt Fitzpatrick. A frustrating watch mid round, he was on way then a few bogies brought him back to earth after 9 holes. Reeled off 4 birdies in a row on the back and could have easily been a few more. Too far back to win I feel.
Rahm started with 3 straight birdies and looked like he was going to go full terminator mode. Then he has a double bogey on hole 4 to undo all that way work. He plugged home to finish -2 for the day and be sitting at -8. Still a chance at 6 shots back. Only Rahm though could win from here.
Scheffler is up there T4 and -11. A late bogey dropped him back a shot so he sits three back. That dropped shot was disappointing as he would have been paired in the second last grouping with Spieth. On the plus side he can sit in the back ground and if he gets it rolling early and puts the pressure on, he can win. A very live chance.
Been a semi lean patch of late so please Scottie, beam me up!
Scheffler right there. Sungjae charging. Spieth doing Spieth things. It's on like Donkey Kong
Eventual winner Fitzpatrick and Spieth fought out a 3 hole playoff with all the drama you could ask. They both finished at -17 and on the first playoff hole, Spieth lips out an absolute heartbreaker that looked in the whole way and would have gave him the back to back win. Similarly on the second playoff hole, he just missed by the barest of margins again to win after putting his tee shot within about 15 feet. To the third playoff hole and both players drive their ball in the fairway and it was Fitzpatrick who stick a nine iron to under a foot to put the pressure on Spieth. It was too great, he squirted his shot long and then missed the return 25 footer to give Fitzpatrick his second PGA tour win.
I wasn't too upset that Fitz won, he's not one of mine. I would have spewed if Spieth won. But ultimately, Scheffler absolutely knifed himself out of things by his own hand (or putter that is).
Never mind the display for the first three days, where he was rated near last on the greens, but still only 3 back. Come round 4, he started with a tap on birdie to get to -12. Then he stiffs one to 3 feet on the par 5 for 3, only to miss the short putt to get to -13. Hole 3, he nails a 15 footer for birdie. Come th par 3 4th, he puts his tee shot 13 feet from the hole to miss that and then coming to the 5 th hole par 5, he again has a tap on birdie which he misses. Literally 2 feet. Those two short misses alone puts him tied for the Elad after 5 holes and the motivation is certain to be different. Instead, he plods in and shoots -1 for the day, finishing 5 back. Mega frustrating as he is by far the best tee to green player in the world by a mile.
RAHMBO was just too far back to challenge and the other plodders did just that. Morikawa showed glimpses of brilliance but ultimately he isn't firing like to upper echelon of the Rahma and Schefflers. Cam Young was deplorable on the end. The guy can beat anyone in the world on his day but this was not a tournament he seemed comfortable with at any stage, mainly on the greens.
And with that, we go to a lull and the Zurich Classic team event. It should be the Cantlay/Schaufele benefit and will be interested to see what price they come up with. Their challenges will be the team of Burns/Horshal and the new Homa/Morikawa (Homakawa) team.
More soon!
Zurich classic. I've been saying it's the Cantlay/Schaufele benefit and I'm sticking to my guns.
20 units at $4.35
87 return.
These two gel so well and are coming off a very close finish at Heritage. Single bullet week.
Value lies with Burns and Horshal at $21 if that's more your jam. Or to a lesser extent, Homa/Morikawa at $8, who certainly have the ability but have let me down of very recently.
Good luck!
detonator, Thunderstruck likes this post.
LPGA Chevron Championship
My girl Atthaya Thitikul has a great chance to get back in the winners circle off a short break. 2 units at $13 for 26 collect.
LIV Adelaide
The circus comes to town and I'm having an each way go at the top clown, Phil Mickelson at $67. Comes off a Master's second and is striking it as well as ever. 1.5 units each way for 121.8 collect
Thunderstruck, Gilgamesh likes this post.
This week -25
Overall +418.2
No great odds and only because it's in Oz I'll be having a punt on Smithy, i probably should back cupcake(Koepka)too but I'll stay loyal and just back our bogan Aussie.
Fair to say other than popping my head in here once in a while i haven't followed or watched any golf at all.
Gilgamesh, Thunderstruck likes this post.
Smith shot -3 and reckons he was nervous throughout(fn played like it lol)
Gooch at -10 and 4 clear it looks all over although has he some choke in him?? not sure of his form tbh.
Race day tomoz so won't see Rd 2 but I'd be inclined to watch again on Sunday whilst nurturing a decent few cans :D
1. Cantlay and Schaufele. Lose by 4 strokes. Have the lowest score in the alternate shot section compared to the best ball section in history of tournament, never done before. The best ball part is the easy part and they played that across two rounds in -12. The top 10 average was -17. They lose by 4. They also played the 4 x par 5s in +1. Compared to other teams who at least birdied 3/4 of them.
2. Phil Mickelson. Cruising at -11 in the last round and in the top 10, he has 11 holes to play. 2 x Double bogeys in succession put him back to -7. Plays the final 9 holes in -5 to finish at -12. 1 shot out of the top 10 and 3 shots out of outright 2nd. Plays the double bogeys holes in even and he runs second.
3. Atthaya Thitikul on the LPGA Chevron championship. Backed her at $13. She is 3 back going to the last round. After 9 holes she is leading at -10. Gets to hole 18 still at -10 and is 1 behind the leader who is in the final group 2 holes back. The group on front has Lila Vu, who birdied the last two holes to be in the clubhouse at -10. Thitikul needs at worse a par to tie the clubhouse lead going into the east last hole, a par 5. Bombs a drive to the rough. Lays up to a perfect wedge number. Has a 125 yard wedge shot over water into the par 5 for 3, with a massive grandstand behind the green, which she can use as a backboard, because of temporary immovable obstruction relief, whereby if she goes long and is up against it, gets a free drop. Ie it's the play to make when hitting over water. Proceeds to put her wedge into the water and then takes double bogeys and falls to -8. The nail in the coffin is that the leader in the last group shits the bed and does the same thing, forcing a playoff at -10, which she loses to Lila Vu.
:-&
Didn't back him last year based on those odds. Not sure what I'll do this week.