Well strike me pink. A day is a long day in the golf world.
As of 10 pm last night, a notification came through to my phone saying that the PGA tour, the DP world tour and the Saudi PIF have come to an agreement that will unify world golf as we know it, with the major investor being the Saudi Public Investment Fund, a 750 billion dollar entity.
Here is the release
23H AGO PGA TOUR, DP World Tour and PIF announce newly formed commercial entity to unify golf 5 Min Read
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PGA TOUR, DP World Tour and PIF announce newly formed commercial entity to unify golf Agreement establishes common goal to promote and grow the game globally for the benefit of all stakeholders, ends litigation
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Florida – The PGA TOUR, DP World Tour and the Public Investment Fund (PIF) today announced a landmark agreement to unify the game of golf, on a global basis. The parties have signed an agreement that combines PIF’s golf-related commercial businesses and rights (including LIV Golf) with the commercial businesses and rights of the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour into a new, collectively owned, for-profit entity to ensure that all stakeholders benefit from a model that delivers maximum excitement and competition among the game’s best players.
In addition, PIF will make a capital investment into the new entity to facilitate its growth and success. The new entity (name TBD) will implement a plan to grow these combined commercial businesses, drive greater fan engagement and accelerate growth initiatives already underway. With LIV Golf in the midst of its second, groundbreaking season, the PGA TOUR, DP World Tour and PIF will work together to best feature and grow team golf going forward.
Notably, today’s announcement will be followed by a mutually agreed end to all pending litigation between the participating parties. Further, the three organizations will work cooperatively and in good faith to establish a fair and objective process for any players who desire to re-apply for membership with the PGA TOUR or the DP World Tour following the completion of the 2023 season and for determining fair criteria and terms of re-admission, consistent with each Tour’s policies.
“After two years of disruption and distraction, this is a historic day for the game we all know and love,” said PGA TOUR Commissioner Jay Monahan. “This transformational partnership recognizes the immeasurable strength of the PGA TOUR’s history, legacy and pro-competitive model and combines with it the DP World Tour and LIV – including the team golf concept – to create an organization that will benefit golf’s players, commercial and charitable partners and fans. Going forward, fans can be confident that we will, collectively, deliver on the promise we’ve always made – to promote competition of the best in professional golf and that we are committed to securing and driving the game’s future.
“We are pleased to move forward, in step with LIV and PIF’s world-class investing experience, and I applaud PIF Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan for his vision and collaborative and forward-thinking approach that is not just a solution to the rift in our game, but also a commitment to taking it to new heights. This will engender a new era in global golf, for the better.”
“Today is a very exciting day for this special game and the people it touches around the world,” said PIF Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan. “We are proud to partner with the PGA TOUR to leverage PIF’s unparalleled success and track record of unlocking value and bringing innovation and global best practices to business and sectors worldwide. We are committed to unifying, promoting and growing the game of golf around the world and offering the highest-quality product to the many millions of long-time fans globally, while cultivating new fans.
“There is no question that the LIV model has been positively transformative for golf. We believe there are opportunities for the game to evolve while also maintaining its storied history and tradition. This partnership represents the best opportunity to extend and increase the impact of golf for all. We look forward to collaborating with Jay and Keith to bring the best version of the game to communities around the world.”
Under the terms of the agreement, the Board of Directors of the new entity will oversee and direct all the new entity’s golf-related commercial operations, businesses and investments. The new entity will work to ensure a cohesive schedule of events that will be exciting for fans, sponsors and all stakeholders. PIF will initially be the exclusive investor in the new entity, alongside the PGA TOUR, LIV Golf and the DP World Tour. Going forward, PIF will have the exclusive right to further invest in the new entity, including a right of first refusal on any capital that may be invested in the new entity, including into the PGA TOUR, LIV Golf and DP World Tour. The PGA TOUR will appoint a majority of the Board and hold a majority voting interest in the combined entity.
Separately, PGA TOUR Inc. will remain in place as a 501(c)(6) tax exempt organization and retains administrative oversight of events for those assets contributed by the PGA TOUR, including the sanctioning of events, the administration of the competition and rules, as well as all other “inside the ropes” responsibilities, with Jay Monahan as Commissioner and Ed Herlihy as PGA TOUR Policy Board Chairman. PIF’s Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan will join the PGA TOUR Policy Board. The DP World Tour and LIV Golf will retain similar administrative oversight of events on their respective Tours.
The Board of Directors of the new commercial entity will include Al-Rumayyan as Chairman and Monahan as Chief Executive Officer; the new entity’s Board will also include an Executive Committee comprising Al-Rumayyan, Monahan, Herlihy and PGA TOUR Policy Board member Jimmy Dunne. The full Board will be announced at a later date, and it is anticipated that all three founding members will have representation.
Keith Pelley, Chief Executive of the DP World Tour, said “This is a momentous day. We are delighted to be able to not only reignite our relationship with PIF, but also to have the opportunity to build on our current Strategic Alliance partnership with the PGA TOUR. Together we will be stronger than ever and well positioned to continue to bring the game to all corners of the globe. To partner in this new entity and influence the growth of the game for all our DP World Tour members is energizing and exciting.”
All parties will work in the months to come to finalize terms of the agreement, with details to be announced in due course.
Wow,.just wow. So much to unpack here. I will attempt to bring the main points across in the next few posts.
The PGA tour is a player run entity. No players were privvy to the backroom discussions between Monahan and the Saudis. Hence, a lot of players are not happy with how this has all went down.
Monahan, after decrying the Saudis terroists and having blood money to spend, all while imploring to his players to not take the bag, has done just that and to add insult to injury, has claimed this to be a victory for the tour.
Players like Rory, who was the spokeperson on behalf of the tour, have been played a fool. He, along with other like Tiger, Rahm, Hideki, Spieth etc have all bypassed the large sums of cash to stick loyal to the PGA tour. In the end, the money won out and the tour (monahan) caved in and is rightfully so beng called a hypocrite.
The players that took the risk going to LIV, has paid off. No more than Phil Mickleson, who ironically, in the biggest punt of his life, has come out a winner here, after all his comments and gambling issues that came out and were forgiven by his new Suadi bosses.
The merge, as it is being called, is not a merge. It is allowing the Saudi PIF to be the major investor of the tour and have first right or refusal on any other investments made. They essentially have bought the game of golf. What is the number? Nobody knows as yet. IT HAS TO BE A 20+ billion dollar deal. It just has to be,to justify this 180 degree turn.
What does this all mean? LOTS.
Firstly, the three main tours will somehow have to coordinate events to suit players.
Then, there has to be conditions as to where players can and will have to commit to play.
The newly formed designated events were set up for the best players to play, with the biggest purses, to please the sponsors of the event and draw crowds. These events, if continued, would have to be in the 50 million per tournament category.
Lesser event, like to John Deere etc, would have to have an injection of funds and bring them up to 20 million dollar purses. Again, this has to be done to justify the investment by the Saudis and please the current membership.
The team golf aspect would have to be altered, to fit the tour schedule and to conform to OWGR requirements. Under a unified tour, there needs to be a unified world ranking system. This can only be achieved by standardising events.
The Ryder Cup is open slather again and it is expected that all the best players are now again eligible for selection in Rome during September. all the debacle about Stenson resigning as Captain, Sergio not available, Brooks and DJ being left out, all meant nothing. They can and should be elegible to play at Marco Simone GC for the Ryder Cup
Monahan gets a payrise and promotion, becoming the commisioner of the unified tour initiative. Saudi represntatives will sit on the new board. Seemingly, the players will get paid, as will all the administration. The fans get to see the best in the world in a more unified setup. And all the while, poor old Greg Norman is out of the picture, not even a mention in any release or chatter.
The majors are happy that there is a resolution to all this, even though they were fine all along, as they are separate entities unto themselves. They will only get stronger and more exclusive you would think.
The DP world tour would be happy with this. They keep their alliance with the tour and get a massive cash injection. Their purses will increase significantly and again, the players on this tour will benefit greatly and give much needed attention to the Euro tour.
While the Saudis have bought the game of golf, there are still a lot of people that are not happy with the sportswashing aspect of all this, due to their terrible human rights records over history. This may be true, HOWEVER, people forget that their own backyards have many a skeleton in the closet and that no country is immune from either participating or dealing with countries with questionable moral and ethical values. Im not here to say what is right and wrong, but in the end, everyone has a price. And the Saudis found the tours price. They had to, and some.
While the golf twitter world blew up last night, in time i think this will prove to be a momentous moment for the game and purses around the world. It may even bring golf to the absolute fore front of professional sport. Entities such as the LPGA and so forth would also have to benefit untimately from this deal and they would be silly to distance themselves from this.
Interestingly, there has been no comment from Tiger thus far on all of this, especially as he sets to launch his own branded TGL sports brand with the likes of Rory and other of golfs superstars. I wonder now if there is room for this with what has transpired over the last 24 hours.
This is all still early days, with this new unified tour not having a name as such as yet. Ive only mentioned a few things however there are endless things to consider going forward. For me, I think this resolves the fracture that has been world golf over the past two years, and if it translates to all players playing the best tournaments around the world, for large purses, then thats fine with me.
Anyway, the are a few tournamentts this week to dive into, so my thoughts going forward are up next!
This week heads to Canada for the RNC Candian Open. It was here, last year, that Monhan sprouted his disdain for LIV and the Saudi terroists. Oh how things change in 12 months.
The tour heads to Oakdale Golf and Country Club, a place where it has not hosted a PGA tour event. Throw the course history and metrics out the window, as there are none!
Looking at the latest form lines and tournaments, we can only be guided by those performances.
Standouts for me have been all the europeans. Rory, Hatton, Rose, Fitzpatrick and to a lesser extent Fleetwod, have all been thereabouts lately. It is no suprise that these blokes all dominate the betting, especially Rory who opens at 5.50 and is going for a 3 peat of the Cnadian Open and will defend last years win. As you know, this is way to short for me. He isnt in top gear with his wedge play, after being contention last week, he dropped the ball (again) and is proving hard to get over the line. The same can be siad for the others, but they arent in the same pricing category.
To cut a long story short, plus im sick of typing, Ive gone an each way single bullet this week with Tyrrell Hatton. Yes, back to the well of the angry leprachaun, but his strokes gained numbers over the last 6 tournaments are by fay and away the best and he is double the price of Rory, who has to be feeling it this week more than most, given what has transpired. Rory either misses the cut or wins by 10. Im betting the former and have had the following
In the spirit of merge, Ive had a crack at the Euro tour and the LPGA.
In the mixed event Scandi Masters, Ive gone an each way bet on Alexander Bjork. 5 units at $17 outright and 5 units top 10 at $3.
10 units out for 100 return. He sits as the best strokes gained across the board against the whole field and has played some pretty good golf of late.
In the ladies, I have a blackboker from last week. Ashley Buhai, finished with a Sunday 64 last week to make the top 5 and is playing in the form that won her the British and Australian Opens last season. 1.5 units each way (3 units total) at $17/4.50 (top 6) to collect 33 units back
Overall, im plowing 33 units out for plenty back.
Ive had a small cheeky throw at the stumps for the outright treble and the top 10 treble just in case they all perform.
If the outright treble gets up, looking at a cool 40K return for $10. I wont hold my breath!
In the RBC Canadian Open overninght, Tyrell Hatton shot a lack lustre Even par round to sit 5 shots off the leaders, whom there are 4 tied at -5. Aaron Rai, Justin Lower, Corey Connors and Chesson Hadley lead the way.
Other notables Fitzpatrick shot -4, Rose limped home after starting fast at -3 and Rory is at -1. New professional Ludvig Aberg impressed with a front 9 32 before coming home in 37 nto finish at -3.
Tyrell needs to do something overnight. He will be in the afternoon wave and Even par sits right on the cut line.
Over in Europe, Bjork was -2 through 3 holes and thats the way it stayed after 18, sitting 5 back of the leaders at -7.
The ladies tee of this evening sao there is still time to get on board the Buhai train!
Hatton overnight redeems himself, carding a best of the day 64 to sit now 1 off the lead of Carl Yuan. He had 9 birdies and a bogey and looked on from shot one. Pleasing to see and hopefully he can keep it going.
In Europe, Dale Whitnall shot an amazing 11 under 61 to go 6 clear and looks to be hard to beat from here. Bjork finished at -5 and is 12 off the lead but only 2 off a top 10.
Finally in the ladies, Ashley Buhai had an up and down day finishing at -2 which is 4 off the lead. She had 5 birdies but had 3 bogies unfortunately, but is well placed.
Buhai gets it done in the LPGA. A wonderful 6 under in round 3 got her the one shot win, not without a scare in the end with Hyu Joo Kim needing an eagle.on the last to force a playoff. Her third shot on 18 missed the hole by cms and had me turning away in disgust on the first bounce as I thought it was in.
Bjork had a decent last round to scrape into the top 10, which I needed for a top 10 multi across my picks.
The Canadian Open is going to a playoff between Taylor and Fleetwood. But oh what could have been for Hatton. Shot a last round 64 with a double bogey and misses.by one shot. He shot 72-64-72-64. Just galling as he should have won by miles. Still pays on the top 10.
A fair week on the punt and a few sheckles jump back in, just in time for the US Open this week
Here we are at the third of the majors for the year. The 2023 US Open at LA Country Club.
Field notes, from PGAtour.com
Matt Fitzpatrick will head from coast-to-coast to try to successfully defend his U.S. Open title at LACC. The last player to go back-to-back at the U.S. Open was Brooks Koepka (2017-18), breaking a near 30-year drought of repeat champions (Curtis Strange, 1988-89)… World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is looking for his second major triumph. Scheffler won THE PLAYERS earlier this year and has two TOUR titles so far this season. Scheffler is in the midst of an all-time ball-striking season, sitting first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee, and Approach the Green… World No. 2 Jon Rahm, is looking to win his second major of the season, after taking the Masters in April. Rahm has four victories already in 2023 and a runner-up at the Mexico Open at Vidanta… Rory McIlroy hasn’t won a major in almost a decade but he’s seemingly done everything else on the PGA TOUR since then. The reigning FedExCup champion missed the cut at the Masters but finished tied for seventh at the PGA Championship… The final six spots in the field will be determined Monday after the RBC Canadian Open via the Official World Golf Ranking. If there are still open spots, the USGA will determine entry via alternate lists across Final Qualifying sites… Four of the world's top 10-ranked players are all looking for their first major win in Patrick Cantlay (No. 4), Viktor Hovland (No. 5), and a pair of California kids in Xander Schauffele (No. 6) and Max Homa (No. 7)… Another Californian with some ties to the host venue is Collin Morikawa, who has finished in the top 10 in seven of his last 12 majors and was part of the winning U.S. squad (with Scheffler) at the 2017 Walker Cup at LACC.
Course notes
For the third time in six seasons, the U.S. Open will be played in California, but for the first time since 1948, Los Angeles will be the host city. A field of 156 players, exempt or qualified, will take on Los Angeles Country Club and its famed North Course to determine the 123rd winner. Created in 1921 by W. Herbert Fowler, updated by George C. Thomas in 1928, and renovated by Gil Hanse in 2010, LACC (North) will play 7,423 to Par-70 and hosts for the first time.
The course is one of extreme contrasts. From a gigantic 290+ yard par 3 to a 78 yard par 3. The unforgiving rough 1 foot off the fairway to the rock hard fast greens. This is set up to be one of the greatest tests of the year, as it should for a National Open.
Statistically, its hard to stratify what constitutes the best combination of play, given the lack of course history. But one thing remains. You need to be elite in all areas.
The statistical package I use has been able to parse out ranked statistical metrrics based on hole distances and grass compositions. Significantly, the rough is bermuda grass which when grown out creates a nightmare to hit out of. The greens are bent grass.
Statistical metrics that rate highest are Off the Tee (OTT), driving accuracy (DI) and approach. Taken together, one can assume that an elite tee to green game is probably the way to go. The fairways are fairly wide, but its the angles which willl be the problems for the players off the tee. Looking at the hole by hole analysis, fairways run towards rough areas so being deadly precise off the tee is paramount.
Well, enough jibber jabbin. Lets find the winners.
Taking everything int account, plus my eye test, Ive come up with the following tips and plays for the tournament.
Scheffler ($7.50) - This is rock bottom for a US Open. He is the favorite with next best in line Rahm at $11. but there are many reasons he is favorite. If you have been following the thread, you'll know that Scheffler excels in every area possible, except putting. His Tee to Green numbers are historic, only better by 2000 Tiger. And those that know golf know that 2000 Tiger was God Mode stuff. Couples with these Tee to green numbers, he ranks 3rd overall in Off the Tee, 1st in Approach and 2nd around the greens. He leads to tour with Greens in Regulation at over 73% and avaerages 315+ off the tee. Its amazing stuff. Except that putter. He ranks mid 100s with the putter. He gained over 17 shots in his last 2 starts and finished 3rd, reason being he finished last statistically on the greens. Its super frustrating for those watching, I cant imagine what its like for him. He should have won 5 times this season and it could be said he is under performing, given his elite statistical profile. I'm going to the well again. He has a "new" Scottie Cameron putter in the bag, could this be the blade that gets him the US Open. All he needs to do is not finish last in putting and he will win. THATS IT. If he has a nuetral putter to the field this week, he could win by 6 shots. You know he'll be there on Sunday afternoon.
Brooks Koepka ($13) - Majors Brooks is back, whether anyone likes it or not. He should have won the Masters. He did win the PGA. The ultimate IDGAF guy, plays exhibition golf every other week and now fit and healthy, his game can come to the fore. Last year, he failed as he was genuinely on one leg. This year has shown that a fit Brooks is a danger. The PGA championship was a crowning moment for him and that confidence holds him in good stead to take another one, or two majors this year. The price is short, but the dogs were barking at the Masters when he was 80s into 35. He was still a healthy 25-1 for the PGA championship but now the books have closed him right up and not taking any risks. I can see him being in contention from the get go, so a bet before the tournament is the play.
Viktor Hovland ($19) - He is one of the best players on the tour at the moment. He ground out the win last start, which was inevitable, given I was on him the week before, after a bold showing at the PGA Championship. He has elevated his game in the last 12 months, more so this calender year, going from one of the worst around the green games to one of the best. He admittingly was playing too agressively at pins earlier i n his career, and his maturity and patience in the last 12 months have seen him finish in the the top 7 in the last 3 majors. He was in the final groups of the Open Championship and the PGA Chamionship and was contending at the Masters. The Major form lines are excellent. The game is mature and patient. It might just be Viktors time to take a Major Championship.
Justin Thomas ($51) - This is a hail mary play. 2 months ago, he was $15 to win this event. He has lost it of late, not being in contention and just going through the motions it seems. His numbers dont lie, he is horrible by JT standards and has no reason contending in this tournament. But lest be honest, we all love the overs and $51 for this bloke is outrageous. The guy hasnt forgot how to play golf. He will be constesting a very tough setup, which I think plays into his hands somewhat. This wont be a birdie fest, but a long grind where i think the winning score will be around -7 total. His experience and resume are enough for him to find something this week. If he can make the cut, he can definitely contend over the weekend. He comes off a short break and the chatter ahs been non existent with him. To me, this is the perfect storm for him to re establish and remind everyone of his talent, at a juicy price.
Ofcourse, I havent mentioned other elite players such as Rahm, Spieth, Cantlay etc etc. As I say at every major, you cant back them all.
At the prices above, you can get away with about $3.54 for the arbitrage. I havent bet yet and am hoping for a little drift here or there to get around the $4 mark for all 4.
Whatever the case will drop 30 units on the outrights this week for hopefully around 120 units returned.
Round one is in the books overnight and there are two standouts at the top, Xander Schaufele and Ricky Fowler, both shooting 62s overnight to be at -8, 2 shots clear of Dustin Johnson and Wyndham Clarke at -6 and Rory Bryan Harman at -5, then a stack of players at -3, including my guy Scottie Scheffler.
It was a great comeback by Scheffler, who started with a bogey, then had 7 straight pars. He kicked into gear, reeling of 5 birdies in the next 10 holes and stumbled with a bogey at the last.
Similarly Hovland, who finished at -1, was in trouble early at +3. He entered the harder 9 of the two and holed out eagle on 11 and reeled off a few.more birds to finish under par.
Brooks finished at +1 and was typical nonchalant Brooks, but he did look to be getting frustrated at times with the long waits. It's a similar story to both the Masters and the PGA, where he had a slow start, but worked his stuff out after the first round and went on with it from there.
JT finished at +3 and was actually a little unlucky throughout. He has some work to do if he is to make the cut
If you are betting now, DJ is a great bet at $11 in some places. He has the early tee time today and should get conditions to suit.
I'll predict a cut of +3 on the day. The pin positions are very hard compared to day 1 and should sort the field out a bit more in round 2.
Followers of the thread would be interested to see that midway through round 2 in the LPGA this week, Ashley Buhai on the backup leads the field at -8.
I've backed Buhai at $19 and MinJee Lee at $21 this week. MinJee is at -4 and yet to start round 2.
Round 3 in the books in the 2023 US Open, and what a last round it promises to be.
Leaders Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clarke have kept their lead at -10, now only 1 shot in front of a consistent Rory McIlroy at -9 and a lurking Scottie Scheffler at -7.
Fowler and Clarke both dropped shots on the way in. The difference being that Fowler went par-bogey and Clarke went Bogey-Birdie. With 2 holes to play, both were on -11.
Rory parred in from 14. He looks set to be right there at the end. As good a player he is, he needs this. He has done minimal media and looks laser focused.
The one they have to beat is a charging Scheffler. He is incredible. All week, he has been nowhere near the lead. But champions hang tough and grind it out, waiting to strike when the time is right. And strike he did.
At -4 with 2 to play, he was 7 shots back.
He proceeds to hole out eagle for a 2 on hole 17, the HARDEST hole on the course. He blasted a 320 yard drive down the middle and then absolutely flushed a 6 iron 196 yards to trickle into the hole and gain about 3 shots on the field in one shot! Then he comes to the last, absolutely murders a driver down the centre and puts another 6 iron to 22 feet. Steps up and nails the putt to get to -7 and now 3 shots back. Oh how quickly it can change.
He is now paired with Rory in the second last group. Absolutely perfect.
Over on the LPGA, Ashley Buhai had a ripping day, she shot a 6 under 66 which includes an eagle at the last, to now sit 1 shot behind in second place. She looks very well placed to take her second win in as many weeks. MinJee Lee was less impressive, shooting even par. The thing is, she rattled off 5 birdies but neutralized them with 3 bogies and a double. She is 6 off the lead and has the capacity to go low on day 4, she'll need a 62 to win. Might be one for the blackbook for the following weeks PGA championship.
So, sweating Scheffler and Buhai overnight. Oh and yes I have the double running at 150-1. If they both manage to win, a new set of irons will be on the table [-O<
Well what a great last round but also what a let down again from Scheffler, who definitely had his chance to steal this on the back nine.
Once again, the putts just weren't dropping when they needed to. He missed at least 4 putts under 10 feet and one from 3 feet to go down by 3 shots in the end in 3rd spot, 2 behind Rory and 3 behind winner Wyndham Clarke.
Clarke was the best in the end, with a steady hand up until 15 and 16 where he started to wobble with consecutive bogies. But the winning break was enhanced with a Scheffler bogey late and Rory parring the easy par 5 with a very short miss then finding bunker trouble on the next. Rory got in at -9 and Clarke just needed to par the last, which he did with a great 2 pitt from 70 feet.
Lots of stars flew up the leaderboard late, Fleetwood had round of the day, Min Woo Lee went bogey free and Cam Smith and Rahmbo had a 67 and 65, all too late though.
All attention now heads to the Travellers Championship, a new designated event where all the big dogs will front up again.
Over in the LPGA, Buhai couldn't emulate last start with a final round +1 to finish 8 shots back of Leona Maguire. MinJee sizzled on day 4 with -4 and -13 total and she'll be cherry ripe for the LPGA Championship this week at Baltrasol.
0 back this week for an update of +307.5 units for the season.
No rest for the wicked as the tour heads to yet another, and its last, designated event for the season, at one of my favorites, the Travellers Championship.
Playing short at 6800 yards, this will be a birdie fest. Last year, Xander won from a game Sahith Theegala by 2 shots at -19. I would expect more of the same, and then some this year, with all the big dogs chiming in before they all get on a plane and head across for the Scottish Open and the Open Championship next month.
Because its a "desi" event, we get a stacked fiedl. I have to admit, ive found it very hard to stratify and parse out the fields as they are so major like. So many good players, you have to start splitting hairs to find a winner. Unfortunately, my hair splitting has been a little off this season. But we shall overcome.
Being the week after a major, youd be forgiven if you had no clue this was on. I a) didnt realise it was a designated event and b) didnt realise the strength of the field. In fact, Id already had a cheeky little bet on Austin Eckroat on Monday at $176 because of his great last round of the US Open. Hes atua;lly been backed from as much as 250-1 into about 100 now. The cream rises to the top and I dont think Eckroat is really in "cream" territory at the moment. But we shall see.
Best stats here are driving accuracy and off the tee.
As usual, Scheffler leads all comers in every single statistic, except putting. That putter has cost him many events this year. Im a sucker and will be launching into him this week. It HAS to come good soon. HAS to. Im sure ill be here on Monday morning lamenting another top five finish and close call. But im here for it!
23.5 units on the big dog at 7.50 for 176 return.
Because of the Scheffler launch, only having a little on a couple of others who i think will play well
Hideki $46 - He is now injury free it seems and is trending in the right direction. His statistical profile last week was off the charts if it werent for the putter. Nothing dropped for him. I think he'll show a bit and have a good end to the year.
3.83 units at $46 - 176 collect
Min woo Lee $91 - A top 5 at the US Open along with his last group appearance at the Players Championship, he is playing wonderful golf. Finished Round 4 bogey free and launched up the leaderboard to take home a cool 1.2 million for T5. he is certainly building to a favorite time of the year for him with the Scottish Open around the corner (he won 2 years ago).
1.94 units at $91 - 176 collect
Lastly, as mentioned, have a unit on Eckroat at $176.
The ladies go to Baltrasol for the Womens PGA Championship.
As mentioned previously, Im all in for Minjee Lee this week. Great finsih alst week and only blemish was her third round. She is a proven major winner and proven to handle the pressure. 1.5 units each way at $34 for 62.4 back.
And with that, I HAD to have the Min Woo($91)/Min Jee ($34) double.
0.5 units at 3094-1 makes for a 1547 unit collect!
Well we are half way done at the Travellers and the Women's LPGA and it's a familiar story.
At Travellers, all.mine have made the cut, not so.mich in the order I would have thought though. Scheffler has had his customary "bad" Saturday round on a Friday this week, and sits at -7. He shot even par over night and nothing dropped for him. Zilch. He opened with a -7 and was breathing fore early,.only to have it extinguished in round 2. Everyone went low around him. He sits 9 back of leader Denny McCarthy. Min Woo Lee had another.bogey free round overnight of -5 to sit at -9. Eckroat shot the same and sits at -8. Hideki had a lackluster round 1 of Even pae,.only to do the opposite to Scheffler and card a 63 in round 2. It's a very long way to go but the leaders look ahead to catch with scoring the way it is. But you aren't dead till the last putt drops.
Over in the ladies,.MinJee sits only 2 off the lead in a very tough setup for the girls. She carded a +1 in round one, which wasn't too bad BUT she made a double bogey coming in a the easier par 5. Overnight she has had equal round of the day of -4.to sit at -3, 2 shots behind last week's winner Leona Mcguire.
I'm not going to think about the Lee double till I need to.....but it would be my crowning glory..
Some nice odds on the board with the men of you are inclined to hop in now with a deficit.
3 rounds in and it's a familiar story. Scheffler had a great Saturday 63. Unfortunately everyone else played really well, headed by a round of 60 by Fowler, a 61 by Cantlay and 62 by Justin Thomas. As it stands, Scheffler.is 7 shots behind leader Keegan Bradley, who had another good day 64 to go with his 62 and 63. Yet again, one round is going to kill Schefflers chances, again it was the offending flat stick that got him. Min Woo Lee played solid with a Saturday 65 to be also 7 off the pace. I don't think they can run the leaders down but I'll be watching with interest as always.
Over in the ladies, Min Jee shat the bed with a Saturday 76, to now sit 8 behind the leader going into Championship Sunday. Such a disappointing outcome where she was 1 off the lead at one stage. Again, she can't run them down but stranger things have happened.
Another top 5 for Scheffler, who just keeps on dominating bar one day. Min Woo Lee acquired himself very well with a top 10 while Hideki and Eckroat where only thereabouts.
It was the Keegan Bradley show in the end. While he won by 3 shots and wobbled late with 3 bogies, it was done and dusted with 9 holes to play. Keegan a lot more likeable these days and good to see him happy and winning. It's his 6th tour win.
Been a while since hit an outright. But we carry on.
Had a great week on the fantasy golf building my 10 lineups around Scheffler, Cantlay and Chez Reavie. Fortunately 9 of the lineups were in the top 20 overall against 700 others, ranging from 3rd to 18th. A very nice payday which is well received for the hours put into the study.
We start on a journey to the playoffs now. We have Rocket Mortgage this week where some of the big names like JT are forced to compete to try and make it. Across the oceans the attention will be on events leading up to the open, with the Betfred Masters hosted by Nick Faldo and the Made in Himmerland and the Scottish Open.
Over in the ladies, MinJee played herself out of it late on round 2 and then completely in round 3. The last round from what I saw was a great watch with a few challenging late. Certainly going forward, players like Carlotta Ciganda and Rose Zhang will be ones to follow.
Very late preview this week with pretty much tips only. The Rocket Mortgage is not a designated event, so the field has slipped away a little. Also, there is lead ups now into the Open so players will be resting if they are qualified.
This week I'm opting for 3 players who are in form and also played last week.
Rickie Fowler $15 Hideki Matsuyama $19 Justin Thomas $23
These were pretty good prices I was able to find and bet them accordingly. 10 units out this week for 60.3 return
Have also had 8 units in first round leader for these blokes for 85.8 units back
Absolute disaster overnight in both the PGA and Europe.
Rickie Fowler shoots a 67 (-5) to be 3 off the lead. Unfortunately he bogied the last two holes after getting to -7. He needed birdie on the last two holes to clinch a fiorst round leader, but orcourse, it was not to be. At least he still is in it.
The other two spastics, JT and Hideki, shot +4 and +3 rounds, on a course giving up plenty of birdies. You can safely rule them out of the weekend. They have both lost the plot and I got severely suckered into them this week.
In europe, Keiffer was solid with a -2 round, and is 5 off the leader Justin Rose. Unfortunately again, Min Woo Lee (Even) and Jordan Smith (+1) both played very average. They would need to pull something out in round 2 if they want to be a part of the weekend.
2.5 rounds down and Fowler is my best hope, only 1 off the lead and is due to tee off in the next few hours. He followed his opening 67 with a 65 and is at -12. Hopeful of another sub 66 round and get him might in contention for a win.
Over in Europe both Min Woo and Jordan Smith were very lucky to make the cut at +1. Both were playing very average. Keiffer was my best at -2. The third round has just finished and Min was on track for round of the day and bogies the last two holes to sit at -2 now. Jordan Smith also had a good day and sits at -3. Keiffer my roughest and best hope sits at -6 and only 1 off the lead. He was flying early and was -6 after 5 holes then proceeded to give 4 back in the middle stretch, then reeling off 4 birdies in a row to get back. I had another go at Min Woo at $81 after round 2 and also Keiffer at $56. So here's hoping.
While it isn't in the bets this week, I am sweating the Rocket Mortgage/British Masters double of all the Europe boys with Fowler. The Fowler/ Keiffer double sits at 574-1....
A scintillating 64 overnight for Fowler, to put him 1 shot ahead of Canadians Adam Hadwin and 2 ahead of Taylor Pendrith. It's Fowlers.to lose. He has been in contention many a time this season, most recently at the US Open and last week at the Travellers Championship. I will be praying that he has a Sunday and holds on, but with scoring so low, he'll have to shoot another at least 67 to get it done as I think the winning score will be around -25. You never know though as there is bound to be someone bob up with a career low round.
As mentioned, Keiffer is only 1 back in Europe. He was unlucky last week and was certainly a blackbooker and it's proving true this far. He is an enigma though as yesterday's round showed. He can eagle every hole but also triple when least expecting it. Going to be a rollercoaster and a sweat tonight.
Max Keiffer entered day 4 of the British Masters 1 shot back. He was there to win it, every chance. I said in my last post how he is an enigma. We got the absolute worst of it with him on Sunday. Keiffer birdied 2 of the last 4 holes to finish with an 80. That is correct. 80. It was all over 6 holes in, where he had 2 pars, 2 bogeys and a double. Still though, the leaders weren't running away with it. Just to put the last nails in the coffin, he went a further +5 on the last 3 holes.of the front nine to card a 45 and go from 1 back to 12 back in the space of a few hours. All the leaders shat themselves when finding the lead except for NZer Daniel Hillier, who fished with a flurry of eagle/birdie/eagle/par to get to -10 and take all before him. Disappointing not to find him with T5s in his last two starts and was trending in the right direction, sometimes the eye test is the best test. No collect in Europe.
Now to the good.
In short, Rickie Fowler wins the 2023 Rocket Mortgage. If you looked at the scores after round 3 and the betting, you'd think yep he just got it done. No sir-ee. Not in the slightest. Rickie came out breathing fire and was 3 under through 8 holes and going along nice and steady. The chasers were chasing, lead by Canadian Adam Hadwin and Collin Morikawa, who was on an absolute tear on the back nine. Fast forward and Morikawa has a putt for a nine under 63 on the last hole. He hits the perfect putt, curling around to shave the lip and miss. He gets into the clubhouse at 24 under with Fowler and Hadwin having still 2 holes to play at -23. The par 5 17th has played easy for these guys all week. Hadwin blasts his second shot on the green for 2 and takes an easy 2 putt for birdie and tie the lead. Fowler on the other hand, coming off 9 straight pars, is short for two with a tough over the bunker chip. He strikes the ball soft and it just gets over the bunker and dribbles on the green. He misses the putt and takes par to stay at -23. Comi g to the last there are 10 scenarios that could happen. Hadwin needs birdie to win Fowler needs birdie to tie and force a playoff if Hadwin pars Hadwin steps up and blasts a drive. Fowler much the same. Hadwin hits his second right of the green and has an up and down for par. Enter Rickie Fowler. Does the number, steps in and throws an absolute dart under pressure to 2 feet from the hole. The crown is going sick. Hadwin gets his up and down and Fowler taps in to force a 3 way playoff.
They all go to the tee. Morikawa and Hadwin both stripe on down the centre. Fowler steps up and goes way right into the crowd. Advantage Morikawa.
They get to their balls. Fowler gets relief from the TIO and drips it into the rough. He again does the number and puts his shot 11ft from the hole and the crowd are unconscious. Hadwin steps up and hits his second shot right at it but it spins way back behind fowlers ball to give him a read. A rare mistake from only 130 y. Morikawa has an even shorter shot and this is green light territory for him. He takes his wedge and plans to drop it past the hole and spin it back. He gets it too perfect and it hits the rough and stops dead, buried.
Coming to the green, Hadwin is first to play and hits a great putt which just misses the hole and gives Rickie a good teach on it. Morikawa splashes one out of the rough to just short. Both have tao in pars. Rickie assesses things. Steps up with his now famous Odyssey Jailbird Versa putter and knocks in the 11 footer to take the championship and claim his first win in +1600 days. Everyone is happy for him, non more so than the punters who have stuck loyal with him.
And with that, 60.3 units jumps back in the kit to put me at +307.1 units for the season. Let's hope this is the kick start to some momentum heading to the Scottish and British Opens and then the playoffs.
Unfortunately for John Deere, there association with this tournament is tainted as this is generally known as the worst tournamant of the season. But as they say, there is a winner in every race.
Playing 7200 yards, its not the longest course and Im fully expecting another birdie fest. I dont mind the birdie fest for these lower events. It forces players to have 4 very good days to win or contend. If you take par out of the equation it doesnt really matter how low they go.
Anyway. Looking at 4 years of data, the course lends itself to driving accuracy (6/50). The rest of the stats dont really matter and shorter hitters can get away with things.
Because accuracy is key, ive focused heavily on driving accuracy and greens in regulation.
Here is the shortlist and prices this week.
Russell Henley $15 Emiliano Grillo $31 Eric Cole $34 Doug Ghim $56 Chez Reavie $56 Kevin Yu $91
At the prices, you are looking at the $5.71 return. Henly is poison at $15 but he rates so well here and recently. Hoping to have another week !
Plunging 30 units this week en route to next weeks Scottish Open
It was a week to forget unfortunately. Kevin Yu and Doug Ghim made it interesting but in the end were too far back. Kevin you almost too the lead in the third round, but a couple of late bogeys put him 5 back going into Sunday, and thats where he finished, behind Sepp Straka, who shot a Sunday 62 with a DOUBLE BOGEY on the final hole. He was 11 under after 15 holes and on track for at least a 59. Cruel lipout on 15 and a mistake on 17 meant he needed birdie on the last for the 59. He took double and still managed to hold onto the lead from the pack with still an hour of golf to go.
So no return this week as we now head to a glorious few weeks in the UK with this weekd Scottish Open and then The Open.
The Barbasol Chamionship happens in the US this week and it is a horrible field, as expected with all the big (and medium) dogs in the UK now. But as always, theres a winner in every field!
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Well strike me pink. A day is a long day in the golf world.
As of 10 pm last night, a notification came through to my phone saying that the PGA tour, the DP world tour and the Saudi PIF have come to an agreement that will unify world golf as we know it, with the major investor being the Saudi Public Investment Fund, a 750 billion dollar entity.
Here is the release
23H AGO
PGA TOUR, DP World Tour and PIF announce newly formed commercial entity to unify golf
5 Min Read
Latest
PGA TOUR, DP World Tour and PIF announce newly formed commercial entity to unify golf
Agreement establishes common goal to promote and grow the game globally for the benefit of all stakeholders, ends litigation
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Florida – The PGA TOUR, DP World Tour and the Public Investment Fund (PIF) today announced a landmark agreement to unify the game of golf, on a global basis. The parties have signed an agreement that combines PIF’s golf-related commercial businesses and rights (including LIV Golf) with the commercial businesses and rights of the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour into a new, collectively owned, for-profit entity to ensure that all stakeholders benefit from a model that delivers maximum excitement and competition among the game’s best players.
In addition, PIF will make a capital investment into the new entity to facilitate its growth and success. The new entity (name TBD) will implement a plan to grow these combined commercial businesses, drive greater fan engagement and accelerate growth initiatives already underway. With LIV Golf in the midst of its second, groundbreaking season, the PGA TOUR, DP World Tour and PIF will work together to best feature and grow team golf going forward.
Notably, today’s announcement will be followed by a mutually agreed end to all pending litigation between the participating parties. Further, the three organizations will work cooperatively and in good faith to establish a fair and objective process for any players who desire to re-apply for membership with the PGA TOUR or the DP World Tour following the completion of the 2023 season and for determining fair criteria and terms of re-admission, consistent with each Tour’s policies.
“After two years of disruption and distraction, this is a historic day for the game we all know and love,” said PGA TOUR Commissioner Jay Monahan. “This transformational partnership recognizes the immeasurable strength of the PGA TOUR’s history, legacy and pro-competitive model and combines with it the DP World Tour and LIV – including the team golf concept – to create an organization that will benefit golf’s players, commercial and charitable partners and fans. Going forward, fans can be confident that we will, collectively, deliver on the promise we’ve always made – to promote competition of the best in professional golf and that we are committed to securing and driving the game’s future.
“We are pleased to move forward, in step with LIV and PIF’s world-class investing experience, and I applaud PIF Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan for his vision and collaborative and forward-thinking approach that is not just a solution to the rift in our game, but also a commitment to taking it to new heights. This will engender a new era in global golf, for the better.”
“Today is a very exciting day for this special game and the people it touches around the world,” said PIF Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan. “We are proud to partner with the PGA TOUR to leverage PIF’s unparalleled success and track record of unlocking value and bringing innovation and global best practices to business and sectors worldwide. We are committed to unifying, promoting and growing the game of golf around the world and offering the highest-quality product to the many millions of long-time fans globally, while cultivating new fans.
“There is no question that the LIV model has been positively transformative for golf. We believe there are opportunities for the game to evolve while also maintaining its storied history and tradition. This partnership represents the best opportunity to extend and increase the impact of golf for all. We look forward to collaborating with Jay and Keith to bring the best version of the game to communities around the world.”
Under the terms of the agreement, the Board of Directors of the new entity will oversee and direct all the new entity’s golf-related commercial operations, businesses and investments. The new entity will work to ensure a cohesive schedule of events that will be exciting for fans, sponsors and all stakeholders. PIF will initially be the exclusive investor in the new entity, alongside the PGA TOUR, LIV Golf and the DP World Tour. Going forward, PIF will have the exclusive right to further invest in the new entity, including a right of first refusal on any capital that may be invested in the new entity, including into the PGA TOUR, LIV Golf and DP World Tour. The PGA TOUR will appoint a majority of the Board and hold a majority voting interest in the combined entity.
Separately, PGA TOUR Inc. will remain in place as a 501(c)(6) tax exempt organization and retains administrative oversight of events for those assets contributed by the PGA TOUR, including the sanctioning of events, the administration of the competition and rules, as well as all other “inside the ropes” responsibilities, with Jay Monahan as Commissioner and Ed Herlihy as PGA TOUR Policy Board Chairman. PIF’s Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan will join the PGA TOUR Policy Board. The DP World Tour and LIV Golf will retain similar administrative oversight of events on their respective Tours.
The Board of Directors of the new commercial entity will include Al-Rumayyan as Chairman and Monahan as Chief Executive Officer; the new entity’s Board will also include an Executive Committee comprising Al-Rumayyan, Monahan, Herlihy and PGA TOUR Policy Board member Jimmy Dunne. The full Board will be announced at a later date, and it is anticipated that all three founding members will have representation.
Keith Pelley, Chief Executive of the DP World Tour, said “This is a momentous day. We are delighted to be able to not only reignite our relationship with PIF, but also to have the opportunity to build on our current Strategic Alliance partnership with the PGA TOUR. Together we will be stronger than ever and well positioned to continue to bring the game to all corners of the globe. To partner in this new entity and influence the growth of the game for all our DP World Tour members is energizing and exciting.”
All parties will work in the months to come to finalize terms of the agreement, with details to be announced in due course.
Wow,.just wow. So much to unpack here. I will attempt to bring the main points across in the next few posts.
The PGA tour is a player run entity. No players were privvy to the backroom discussions between Monahan and the Saudis. Hence, a lot of players are not happy with how this has all went down.
Monahan, after decrying the Saudis terroists and having blood money to spend, all while imploring to his players to not take the bag, has done just that and to add insult to injury, has claimed this to be a victory for the tour.
Players like Rory, who was the spokeperson on behalf of the tour, have been played a fool. He, along with other like Tiger, Rahm, Hideki, Spieth etc have all bypassed the large sums of cash to stick loyal to the PGA tour. In the end, the money won out and the tour (monahan) caved in and is rightfully so beng called a hypocrite.
The players that took the risk going to LIV, has paid off. No more than Phil Mickleson, who ironically, in the biggest punt of his life, has come out a winner here, after all his comments and gambling issues that came out and were forgiven by his new Suadi bosses.
The merge, as it is being called, is not a merge. It is allowing the Saudi PIF to be the major investor of the tour and have first right or refusal on any other investments made. They essentially have bought the game of golf. What is the number? Nobody knows as yet. IT HAS TO BE A 20+ billion dollar deal. It just has to be,to justify this 180 degree turn.
What does this all mean? LOTS.
Firstly, the three main tours will somehow have to coordinate events to suit players.
Then, there has to be conditions as to where players can and will have to commit to play.
The newly formed designated events were set up for the best players to play, with the biggest purses, to please the sponsors of the event and draw crowds. These events, if continued, would have to be in the 50 million per tournament category.
Lesser event, like to John Deere etc, would have to have an injection of funds and bring them up to 20 million dollar purses. Again, this has to be done to justify the investment by the Saudis and please the current membership.
The team golf aspect would have to be altered, to fit the tour schedule and to conform to OWGR requirements. Under a unified tour, there needs to be a unified world ranking system. This can only be achieved by standardising events.
The Ryder Cup is open slather again and it is expected that all the best players are now again eligible for selection in Rome during September. all the debacle about Stenson resigning as Captain, Sergio not available, Brooks and DJ being left out, all meant nothing. They can and should be elegible to play at Marco Simone GC for the Ryder Cup
Monahan gets a payrise and promotion, becoming the commisioner of the unified tour initiative. Saudi represntatives will sit on the new board. Seemingly, the players will get paid, as will all the administration. The fans get to see the best in the world in a more unified setup. And all the while, poor old Greg Norman is out of the picture, not even a mention in any release or chatter.
The majors are happy that there is a resolution to all this, even though they were fine all along, as they are separate entities unto themselves. They will only get stronger and more exclusive you would think.
The DP world tour would be happy with this. They keep their alliance with the tour and get a massive cash injection. Their purses will increase significantly and again, the players on this tour will benefit greatly and give much needed attention to the Euro tour.
While the Saudis have bought the game of golf, there are still a lot of people that are not happy with the sportswashing aspect of all this, due to their terrible human rights records over history. This may be true, HOWEVER, people forget that their own backyards have many a skeleton in the closet and that no country is immune from either participating or dealing with countries with questionable moral and ethical values. Im not here to say what is right and wrong, but in the end, everyone has a price. And the Saudis found the tours price. They had to, and some.
While the golf twitter world blew up last night, in time i think this will prove to be a momentous moment for the game and purses around the world. It may even bring golf to the absolute fore front of professional sport. Entities such as the LPGA and so forth would also have to benefit untimately from this deal and they would be silly to distance themselves from this.
Interestingly, there has been no comment from Tiger thus far on all of this, especially as he sets to launch his own branded TGL sports brand with the likes of Rory and other of golfs superstars. I wonder now if there is room for this with what has transpired over the last 24 hours.
This is all still early days, with this new unified tour not having a name as such as yet. Ive only mentioned a few things however there are endless things to consider going forward. For me, I think this resolves the fracture that has been world golf over the past two years, and if it translates to all players playing the best tournaments around the world, for large purses, then thats fine with me.
Anyway, the are a few tournamentts this week to dive into, so my thoughts going forward are up next!
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In Europe, Dale Whitnall shot an amazing 11 under 61 to go 6 clear and looks to be hard to beat from here. Bjork finished at -5 and is 12 off the lead but only 2 off a top 10.
Finally in the ladies, Ashley Buhai had an up and down day finishing at -2 which is 4 off the lead. She had 5 birdies but had 3 bogies unfortunately, but is well placed.
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Bjork had a decent last round to scrape into the top 10, which I needed for a top 10 multi across my picks.
The Canadian Open is going to a playoff between Taylor and Fleetwood. But oh what could have been for Hatton. Shot a last round 64 with a double bogey and misses.by one shot. He shot 72-64-72-64. Just galling as he should have won by miles. Still pays on the top 10.
A fair week on the punt and a few sheckles jump back in, just in time for the US Open this week
This week -38.5
Collect +127.5
Overall +337.5
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Field notes, from PGAtour.com
Matt Fitzpatrick will head from coast-to-coast to try to successfully defend his U.S. Open title at LACC. The last player to go back-to-back at the U.S. Open was Brooks Koepka (2017-18), breaking a near 30-year drought of repeat champions (Curtis Strange, 1988-89)… World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is looking for his second major triumph. Scheffler won THE PLAYERS earlier this year and has two TOUR titles so far this season. Scheffler is in the midst of an all-time ball-striking season, sitting first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee, and Approach the Green… World No. 2 Jon Rahm, is looking to win his second major of the season, after taking the Masters in April. Rahm has four victories already in 2023 and a runner-up at the Mexico Open at Vidanta… Rory McIlroy hasn’t won a major in almost a decade but he’s seemingly done everything else on the PGA TOUR since then. The reigning FedExCup champion missed the cut at the Masters but finished tied for seventh at the PGA Championship… The final six spots in the field will be determined Monday after the RBC Canadian Open via the Official World Golf Ranking. If there are still open spots, the USGA will determine entry via alternate lists across Final Qualifying sites… Four of the world's top 10-ranked players are all looking for their first major win in Patrick Cantlay (No. 4), Viktor Hovland (No. 5), and a pair of California kids in Xander Schauffele (No. 6) and Max Homa (No. 7)… Another Californian with some ties to the host venue is Collin Morikawa, who has finished in the top 10 in seven of his last 12 majors and was part of the winning U.S. squad (with Scheffler) at the 2017 Walker Cup at LACC.
Course notes
For the third time in six seasons, the U.S. Open will be played in California, but for the first time since 1948, Los Angeles will be the host city. A field of 156 players, exempt or qualified, will take on Los Angeles Country Club and its famed North Course to determine the 123rd winner. Created in 1921 by W. Herbert Fowler, updated by George C. Thomas in 1928, and renovated by Gil Hanse in 2010, LACC (North) will play 7,423 to Par-70 and hosts for the first time.
The course is one of extreme contrasts. From a gigantic 290+ yard par 3 to a 78 yard par 3. The unforgiving rough 1 foot off the fairway to the rock hard fast greens. This is set up to be one of the greatest tests of the year, as it should for a National Open.
Statistically, its hard to stratify what constitutes the best combination of play, given the lack of course history. But one thing remains. You need to be elite in all areas.
The statistical package I use has been able to parse out ranked statistical metrrics based on hole distances and grass compositions. Significantly, the rough is bermuda grass which when grown out creates a nightmare to hit out of. The greens are bent grass.
Statistical metrics that rate highest are Off the Tee (OTT), driving accuracy (DI) and approach. Taken together, one can assume that an elite tee to green game is probably the way to go. The fairways are fairly wide, but its the angles which willl be the problems for the players off the tee. Looking at the hole by hole analysis, fairways run towards rough areas so being deadly precise off the tee is paramount.
Well, enough jibber jabbin. Lets find the winners.
Taking everything int account, plus my eye test, Ive come up with the following tips and plays for the tournament.
Scheffler ($7.50) - This is rock bottom for a US Open. He is the favorite with next best in line Rahm at $11. but there are many reasons he is favorite. If you have been following the thread, you'll know that Scheffler excels in every area possible, except putting. His Tee to Green numbers are historic, only better by 2000 Tiger. And those that know golf know that 2000 Tiger was God Mode stuff. Couples with these Tee to green numbers, he ranks 3rd overall in Off the Tee, 1st in Approach and 2nd around the greens. He leads to tour with Greens in Regulation at over 73% and avaerages 315+ off the tee. Its amazing stuff. Except that putter. He ranks mid 100s with the putter. He gained over 17 shots in his last 2 starts and finished 3rd, reason being he finished last statistically on the greens. Its super frustrating for those watching, I cant imagine what its like for him. He should have won 5 times this season and it could be said he is under performing, given his elite statistical profile. I'm going to the well again. He has a "new" Scottie Cameron putter in the bag, could this be the blade that gets him the US Open. All he needs to do is not finish last in putting and he will win. THATS IT. If he has a nuetral putter to the field this week, he could win by 6 shots. You know he'll be there on Sunday afternoon.
Brooks Koepka ($13) - Majors Brooks is back, whether anyone likes it or not. He should have won the Masters. He did win the PGA. The ultimate IDGAF guy, plays exhibition golf every other week and now fit and healthy, his game can come to the fore. Last year, he failed as he was genuinely on one leg. This year has shown that a fit Brooks is a danger. The PGA championship was a crowning moment for him and that confidence holds him in good stead to take another one, or two majors this year. The price is short, but the dogs were barking at the Masters when he was 80s into 35. He was still a healthy 25-1 for the PGA championship but now the books have closed him right up and not taking any risks. I can see him being in contention from the get go, so a bet before the tournament is the play.
Viktor Hovland ($19) - He is one of the best players on the tour at the moment. He ground out the win last start, which was inevitable, given I was on him the week before, after a bold showing at the PGA Championship. He has elevated his game in the last 12 months, more so this calender year, going from one of the worst around the green games to one of the best. He admittingly was playing too agressively at pins earlier i n his career, and his maturity and patience in the last 12 months have seen him finish in the the top 7 in the last 3 majors. He was in the final groups of the Open Championship and the PGA Chamionship and was contending at the Masters. The Major form lines are excellent. The game is mature and patient. It might just be Viktors time to take a Major Championship.
Justin Thomas ($51) - This is a hail mary play. 2 months ago, he was $15 to win this event. He has lost it of late, not being in contention and just going through the motions it seems. His numbers dont lie, he is horrible by JT standards and has no reason contending in this tournament. But lest be honest, we all love the overs and $51 for this bloke is outrageous. The guy hasnt forgot how to play golf. He will be constesting a very tough setup, which I think plays into his hands somewhat. This wont be a birdie fest, but a long grind where i think the winning score will be around -7 total. His experience and resume are enough for him to find something this week. If he can make the cut, he can definitely contend over the weekend. He comes off a short break and the chatter ahs been non existent with him. To me, this is the perfect storm for him to re establish and remind everyone of his talent, at a juicy price.
Ofcourse, I havent mentioned other elite players such as Rahm, Spieth, Cantlay etc etc. As I say at every major, you cant back them all.
At the prices above, you can get away with about $3.54 for the arbitrage. I havent bet yet and am hoping for a little drift here or there to get around the $4 mark for all 4.
Whatever the case will drop 30 units on the outrights this week for hopefully around 120 units returned.
Overall +337.5
This week -30
Total +307.5 Units
Best of luck and happy US Open week!
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It was a great comeback by Scheffler, who started with a bogey, then had 7 straight pars. He kicked into gear, reeling of 5 birdies in the next 10 holes and stumbled with a bogey at the last.
Similarly Hovland, who finished at -1, was in trouble early at +3. He entered the harder 9 of the two and holed out eagle on 11 and reeled off a few.more birds to finish under par.
Brooks finished at +1 and was typical nonchalant Brooks, but he did look to be getting frustrated at times with the long waits. It's a similar story to both the Masters and the PGA, where he had a slow start, but worked his stuff out after the first round and went on with it from there.
JT finished at +3 and was actually a little unlucky throughout. He has some work to do if he is to make the cut
If you are betting now, DJ is a great bet at $11 in some places. He has the early tee time today and should get conditions to suit.
I'll predict a cut of +3 on the day. The pin positions are very hard compared to day 1 and should sort the field out a bit more in round 2.
I've backed Buhai at $19 and MinJee Lee at $21 this week. MinJee is at -4 and yet to start round 2.
Leaders Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clarke have kept their lead at -10, now only 1 shot in front of a consistent Rory McIlroy at -9 and a lurking Scottie Scheffler at -7.
Fowler and Clarke both dropped shots on the way in. The difference being that Fowler went par-bogey and Clarke went Bogey-Birdie. With 2 holes to play, both were on -11.
Rory parred in from 14. He looks set to be right there at the end. As good a player he is, he needs this. He has done minimal media and looks laser focused.
The one they have to beat is a charging Scheffler. He is incredible. All week, he has been nowhere near the lead. But champions hang tough and grind it out, waiting to strike when the time is right. And strike he did.
At -4 with 2 to play, he was 7 shots back.
He proceeds to hole out eagle for a 2 on hole 17, the HARDEST hole on the course. He blasted a 320 yard drive down the middle and then absolutely flushed a 6 iron 196 yards to trickle into the hole and gain about 3 shots on the field in one shot! Then he comes to the last, absolutely murders a driver down the centre and puts another 6 iron to 22 feet. Steps up and nails the putt to get to -7 and now 3 shots back. Oh how quickly it can change.
He is now paired with Rory in the second last group. Absolutely perfect.
Over on the LPGA, Ashley Buhai had a ripping day, she shot a 6 under 66 which includes an eagle at the last, to now sit 1 shot behind in second place. She looks very well placed to take her second win in as many weeks. MinJee Lee was less impressive, shooting even par. The thing is, she rattled off 5 birdies but neutralized them with 3 bogies and a double. She is 6 off the lead and has the capacity to go low on day 4, she'll need a 62 to win. Might be one for the blackbook for the following weeks PGA championship.
So, sweating Scheffler and Buhai overnight. Oh and yes I have the double running at 150-1. If they both manage to win, a new set of irons will be on the table
[-O<
jum, Gilgamesh likes this post.
Once again, the putts just weren't dropping when they needed to. He missed at least 4 putts under 10 feet and one from 3 feet to go down by 3 shots in the end in 3rd spot, 2 behind Rory and 3 behind winner Wyndham Clarke.
Clarke was the best in the end, with a steady hand up until 15 and 16 where he started to wobble with consecutive bogies. But the winning break was enhanced with a Scheffler bogey late and Rory parring the easy par 5 with a very short miss then finding bunker trouble on the next. Rory got in at -9 and Clarke just needed to par the last, which he did with a great 2 pitt from 70 feet.
Lots of stars flew up the leaderboard late, Fleetwood had round of the day, Min Woo Lee went bogey free and Cam Smith and Rahmbo had a 67 and 65, all too late though.
All attention now heads to the Travellers Championship, a new designated event where all the big dogs will front up again.
Over in the LPGA, Buhai couldn't emulate last start with a final round +1 to finish 8 shots back of Leona Maguire. MinJee sizzled on day 4 with -4 and -13 total and she'll be cherry ripe for the LPGA Championship this week at Baltrasol.
0 back this week for an update of +307.5 units for the season.
Gilgamesh likes this post.
The ladies go to Baltrasol for the Womens PGA Championship.
As mentioned previously, Im all in for Minjee Lee this week. Great finsih alst week and only blemish was her third round. She is a proven major winner and proven to handle the pressure. 1.5 units each way at $34 for 62.4 back.
And with that, I HAD to have the Min Woo($91)/Min Jee ($34) double.
0.5 units at 3094-1 makes for a 1547 unit collect!
So with that extra 3.5 units out we are at
+274.8 (32.7 alive)
Good luck!
Gilgamesh likes this post.
At Travellers, all.mine have made the cut, not so.mich in the order I would have thought though. Scheffler has had his customary "bad" Saturday round on a Friday this week, and sits at -7. He shot even par over night and nothing dropped for him. Zilch. He opened with a -7 and was breathing fore early,.only to have it extinguished in round 2. Everyone went low around him. He sits 9 back of leader Denny McCarthy.
Min Woo Lee had another.bogey free round overnight of -5 to sit at -9. Eckroat shot the same and sits at -8. Hideki had a lackluster round 1 of Even pae,.only to do the opposite to Scheffler and card a 63 in round 2. It's a very long way to go but the leaders look ahead to catch with scoring the way it is. But you aren't dead till the last putt drops.
Over in the ladies,.MinJee sits only 2 off the lead in a very tough setup for the girls. She carded a +1 in round one, which wasn't too bad BUT she made a double bogey coming in a the easier par 5. Overnight she has had equal round of the day of -4.to sit at -3, 2 shots behind last week's winner Leona Mcguire.
I'm not going to think about the Lee double till I need to.....but it would be my crowning glory..
Some nice odds on the board with the men of you are inclined to hop in now with a deficit.
Over in the ladies, Min Jee shat the bed with a Saturday 76, to now sit 8 behind the leader going into Championship Sunday. Such a disappointing outcome where she was 1 off the lead at one stage. Again, she can't run them down but stranger things have happened.
Good ????
It was the Keegan Bradley show in the end. While he won by 3 shots and wobbled late with 3 bogies, it was done and dusted with 9 holes to play. Keegan a lot more likeable these days and good to see him happy and winning. It's his 6th tour win.
Been a while since hit an outright. But we carry on.
Had a great week on the fantasy golf building my 10 lineups around Scheffler, Cantlay and Chez Reavie. Fortunately 9 of the lineups were in the top 20 overall against 700 others, ranging from 3rd to 18th. A very nice payday which is well received for the hours put into the study.
We start on a journey to the playoffs now. We have Rocket Mortgage this week where some of the big names like JT are forced to compete to try and make it. Across the oceans the attention will be on events leading up to the open, with the Betfred Masters hosted by Nick Faldo and the Made in Himmerland and the Scottish Open.
Over in the ladies, MinJee played herself out of it late on round 2 and then completely in round 3. The last round from what I saw was a great watch with a few challenging late. Certainly going forward, players like Carlotta Ciganda and Rose Zhang will be ones to follow.
But alas, no collect here.
+274.8 units
This week I'm opting for 3 players who are in form and also played last week.
Rickie Fowler $15
Hideki Matsuyama $19
Justin Thomas $23
These were pretty good prices I was able to find and bet them accordingly. 10 units out this week for 60.3 return
Have also had 8 units in first round leader for these blokes for 85.8 units back
-18 units out this week in total
YTD +274.8
Current +256.8 total
I've backed 3 blokes there as well for some interest
Min Woo Lee $13
Jordan Smith $19
Maximilian Keiffer $41
10 units here for 50 back
-28 total this week makes
Current +246.8 YTD
Over in Europe both Min Woo and Jordan Smith were very lucky to make the cut at +1. Both were playing very average. Keiffer was my best at -2. The third round has just finished and Min was on track for round of the day and bogies the last two holes to sit at -2 now. Jordan Smith also had a good day and sits at -3. Keiffer my roughest and best hope sits at -6 and only 1 off the lead. He was flying early and was -6 after 5 holes then proceeded to give 4 back in the middle stretch, then reeling off 4 birdies in a row to get back.
I had another go at Min Woo at $81 after round 2 and also Keiffer at $56. So here's hoping.
While it isn't in the bets this week, I am sweating the Rocket Mortgage/British Masters double of all the Europe boys with Fowler. The Fowler/ Keiffer double sits at 574-1....
Best of luck!
Gilgamesh likes this post.
As mentioned, Keiffer is only 1 back in Europe. He was unlucky last week and was certainly a blackbooker and it's proving true this far. He is an enigma though as yesterday's round showed. He can eagle every hole but also triple when least expecting it. Going to be a rollercoaster and a sweat tonight.
BoL !
Gilgamesh likes this post.
Max Keiffer entered day 4 of the British Masters 1 shot back. He was there to win it, every chance. I said in my last post how he is an enigma. We got the absolute worst of it with him on Sunday. Keiffer birdied 2 of the last 4 holes to finish with an 80. That is correct. 80. It was all over 6 holes in, where he had 2 pars, 2 bogeys and a double. Still though, the leaders weren't running away with it. Just to put the last nails in the coffin, he went a further +5 on the last 3 holes.of the front nine to card a 45 and go from 1 back to 12 back in the space of a few hours. All the leaders shat themselves when finding the lead except for NZer Daniel Hillier, who fished with a flurry of eagle/birdie/eagle/par to get to -10 and take all before him. Disappointing not to find him with T5s in his last two starts and was trending in the right direction, sometimes the eye test is the best test. No collect in Europe.
Now to the good.
In short, Rickie Fowler wins the 2023 Rocket Mortgage. If you looked at the scores after round 3 and the betting, you'd think yep he just got it done. No sir-ee. Not in the slightest.
Rickie came out breathing fire and was 3 under through 8 holes and going along nice and steady. The chasers were chasing, lead by Canadian Adam Hadwin and Collin Morikawa, who was on an absolute tear on the back nine.
Fast forward and Morikawa has a putt for a nine under 63 on the last hole. He hits the perfect putt, curling around to shave the lip and miss. He gets into the clubhouse at 24 under with Fowler and Hadwin having still 2 holes to play at -23.
The par 5 17th has played easy for these guys all week. Hadwin blasts his second shot on the green for 2 and takes an easy 2 putt for birdie and tie the lead. Fowler on the other hand, coming off 9 straight pars, is short for two with a tough over the bunker chip. He strikes the ball soft and it just gets over the bunker and dribbles on the green. He misses the putt and takes par to stay at -23.
Comi g to the last there are 10 scenarios that could happen.
Hadwin needs birdie to win
Fowler needs birdie to tie and force a playoff if Hadwin pars
Hadwin steps up and blasts a drive. Fowler much the same. Hadwin hits his second right of the green and has an up and down for par.
Enter Rickie Fowler. Does the number, steps in and throws an absolute dart under pressure to 2 feet from the hole. The crown is going sick. Hadwin gets his up and down and Fowler taps in to force a 3 way playoff.
They all go to the tee. Morikawa and Hadwin both stripe on down the centre. Fowler steps up and goes way right into the crowd. Advantage Morikawa.
They get to their balls. Fowler gets relief from the TIO and drips it into the rough. He again does the number and puts his shot 11ft from the hole and the crowd are unconscious.
Hadwin steps up and hits his second shot right at it but it spins way back behind fowlers ball to give him a read. A rare mistake from only 130 y. Morikawa has an even shorter shot and this is green light territory for him. He takes his wedge and plans to drop it past the hole and spin it back. He gets it too perfect and it hits the rough and stops dead, buried.
Coming to the green, Hadwin is first to play and hits a great putt which just misses the hole and gives Rickie a good teach on it. Morikawa splashes one out of the rough to just short. Both have tao in pars.
Rickie assesses things. Steps up with his now famous Odyssey Jailbird Versa putter and knocks in the 11 footer to take the championship and claim his first win in +1600 days. Everyone is happy for him, non more so than the punters who have stuck loyal with him.
And with that, 60.3 units jumps back in the kit to put me at +307.1 units for the season. Let's hope this is the kick start to some momentum heading to the Scottish and British Opens and then the playoffs.
detonator likes this post.
Unfortunately for John Deere, there association with this tournament is tainted as this is generally known as the worst tournamant of the season. But as they say, there is a winner in every race.
Playing 7200 yards, its not the longest course and Im fully expecting another birdie fest. I dont mind the birdie fest for these lower events. It forces players to have 4 very good days to win or contend. If you take par out of the equation it doesnt really matter how low they go.
Anyway. Looking at 4 years of data, the course lends itself to driving accuracy (6/50). The rest of the stats dont really matter and shorter hitters can get away with things.
Because accuracy is key, ive focused heavily on driving accuracy and greens in regulation.
Here is the shortlist and prices this week.
Russell Henley $15
Emiliano Grillo $31
Eric Cole $34
Doug Ghim $56
Chez Reavie $56
Kevin Yu $91
At the prices, you are looking at the $5.71 return. Henly is poison at $15 but he rates so well here and recently. Hoping to have another week !
Plunging 30 units this week en route to next weeks Scottish Open
30 out for 171.3 units return
This week -30
Overall +277.1
Ive backed the following spending 25 units
Rickie Fowler $21
Matt Fotzpatrick $23
Tommy Fleetwood $23
Min Woo Lee $46
Best of luck