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GOLF PGA Tour Season 23/24
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Well here we are again. Brand new thread for a brand new season!
As stated in the last seasons thread, it was a profitable year for the third in a row. This has everything to do with trawling and stratifying the statistics from all angles, thanks to Rick Gehman from rickrungood.com. Ive found this to be an invaluable statitical package which allows you to parse out and find nuggest of gold within the deep recesses of the PGA tour fields week to week.
This year, Ive opted not to employ any changes from last season. Last season, I did away with the first round leader betting, as, while fun, is even more of a lottery and I found was wasting hard earned profits from the sweats from outright wins.
So just as last year, the main concentration will be on the PGA Tour season, with a sprinkling of the LPGA girls and the DP World tour, who are ramping up with their Race to Dubai end of season championship.
So with that, lets dive into the first week of the new season!
Comments
Fortinet Championship, Silverado GC.
Par 72 - 7126 yards
Reigning Champ - Max Homa
It was an absolutely bizarre finish last season in the Fortinet. Coming down the last hole, Danny Willet held a 1 shot lead over Max Homa standing on 18 tee. Willet finds trouble off the tee and Homa blasts one down the centre. Willet chips out and then sticks his 3rd shot to 3 feet. Homa, needing to find the green in 2, comes up short into the bunker. Needing what looks to be a hole out to win, fluffs one short of the green. With par looking inevitable and a near miss secod placing, Homa strides up and chips in for an unexpected birdie 4. Still Willet has a 3 footer for birdie and the win. In what was probably the melt down of the year last season, Willet proceeds 3 putt from 3 feet and take a bogey 6, which puts him one behind at the end and give Homa the back to back victory
This year, Homa returns just 2 weeks before a Ryder Cup start in Rome. Incidentally, he and Thomas (also playing) were in Rome literally 48 hours ago. Will this affect their preparation? Probably not, as golf isnt as taxing physically as some of the other professional sports. These guys fly private and get the rest and support they need, not like us mere mortals. But are you willing to take $8 about Max (and $15 for Thomas) to find out? Short answer for me, NO.
So i am bypassing the two big names which means room to play a few guys for the first event of the fall swing. I am playing 6 blokes who fit the category of a player who has excellent recent and course history with respect to approach and putting. There are a few form lines coming into this event as always, with european events and Korn Ferry tour events all coming together along with extended breaks for those who didnt play in the tour championship weeks. The course, while narrow, isnt penal if missing the fairway off the tee (short rough) and lends itself to guys that have a good approach game and especially wedge game from 150 yards and closer, whether it be rough or fairway.
In odds order
Cam Davis $26
JJ Spaun $36
Eric Cole $36
Doug Ghim $51
Davis Thompsom $51
Scott Stallings $131
You can play all 6 guys at these prices for a return of around $7.10.
To start the season, im playing 25 units to return 177.48.
Season 0 units
This week -25
Overall -25 units.
Best of luck!
Gilgamesh, jum likes this post.
Splitting them is a resurgent Justin Thomas who is also only 2 off the lead. Will be a great last round at a pretty friendly viewing time.
If you like some early evening viewing, the euro tour at the BMW will also be a great last round with all the big dogs chasing down new sensation Ludvig Aberg en route to the Ryder cup in 2 weeks. Early bets should be around Europe, they look a great chance to keep their record over in Europe in tact against a stacked US team.
This week -25
Season -25
No PGA Tour this week, only Euro tour and LIV this week with a semi decent field contesting the French open and the normals going around at LIV Chicago. Hardest to beat in France is Tom Kim and Min Woo Lee while over in LIV, Cam Smith and Patrick Reed look two good hopes.
Looking forward to the Ryder Cup next week in Rome. Oh to be in Italy next week!
Gilgamesh likes this post.
Gilgamesh likes this post.
If you like chaos, watch the last hour or two of the last round.
I'm the end, Luke List wins a 5 man playoff by dropping a 40 foot bomb to take out Griffen, Norlander, Aberg and Stallings.
Coming down the stretch, my guy, Hubbard, who started the day 8 back, was on an absolute heater on the back 9, getting the 19 under with 3 holes to play. He parred 16 and was 1 off the lead but I thought of he could get to 20 then it's game on, with the leaders stumbling and not scoring as prolifically.
On 17, Hubbard is on for 14 feet from the hole. He rams his first putt 5 feet past the hole and then proceeds to do the same again. A gutting 3 putt to put him back to -18.
Needing a birdie on the last (I thought), he stumbles again and bogies the last hole to move back to 17 under.
Guttingly, the 5 that were in the playoff ended up finishing at 18 under. Absolute sick bag material going down by a shot when you bogey the last two holes.
Leader Ben Griffen gave up a 3 shot lead and bogies the last hole to force the 5 man playoff. His 8 footer to win just veered right of the hole, catching the lip and denying the young man his first tour win.
So many crazy things happened on that back nine, too many to list here.
But in the end, it's a no collect this week, which is all that matters
Season to date = -50 units
Gilgamesh likes this post.
The Shriners relies primarily on the putter this week. Because of the similarities in the field from last week, recency bias is always a factor but is well regarded given the quick turnaround.
This week I'll be playing 7 blokes for a return of $4.85 Investing 30 units
Aberg $15
Schenck $29
Poston $31
Norrman $46
NeSmith $71
Stallings $91
Dou $111
A good spread of prices here. A couple of guys returning in Schenck and Poston after successful Tour Championship performances. Vincent Norrman has been in great form as well as Aberg. NeSmith, Stallings and Dou all showed up with the putter last week and I expect that to continue. Let's hope for a result this week
Good luck
detonator likes this post.
The rest were fairly average. A spread between -2 and +3. The cut will be around 5 or 6 so lots of work to be done I think
detonator, Voodoo likes this post.
Sungjae Im $15
Min Woo Lee $17
Eric Cole $34
Just 10 units out this far for 65 back.
jum likes this post.
There's no cut, so there's still a chance!
There are plenty of chaser so it's going to a full on round. Even Min Woo Lee who is 6 back could get hot, he started with and eagle on the rough par 4. You never know
But we on the Cole Train today toot toot
He leads at -10, 2 ahead of Cole and the rest. The other teasers have faultered and a few chasers are starting to appear.
A good back nine coming
It's over.
Eric Cole finished second again, a whopping 6 shots back. His day could not have started better, birdie on the first hole and equal leader. Then it all went to shite and he finished the day even and on -8. While unlucky in a few areas, his approach and short game weren't what it was over the first 3 days.
In truly annoying fashion, Min Woo Lee charged home with a Sunday 65 and finished T6, with literally one bad round spelling the end for his week. Granted it was a 3 over on the toughest day of the 4 but frustrating nonetheless. He looks to get another win somewhere soon and also looks to have secured his PGA tour card for 2024. I look forward to burning more cash on him soon.
Sungjae was there about for the first two days. Maybe a little rust set in on him with such an extended break. He's one to keep an eye on.
And when it's all said and done, it's another 0 return after 4 x fall events.
A week off this week and then back into it next week.
May have a few LPGA thoughts for the coming weekend as we can't just sit on our hands can we.
jum, H-BOMBER likes this post.
=))
detonator likes this post.
Oh man that is absolutely siiiick. 59 off the stick?! Farkin hell
Araluen too, beast of a course. I played the blacks there a few months back when it's was torrential rain and wind, shot 100
If one of your guys suddenly does or.gets very I'll please consider your old mate :D
jum likes this post.
LPGA
Ewart-Shadoff $34
Lydia KO $34
Jennifer Kupcho $51
Perrine Delacore $101
Qatar Masters
Marcel Siem $34/8.50 each way
Good luck
detonator likes this post.
Hannah Green
Daniel Hiller
80-1
Also had a small spec on Alvaro Quiros at $251
That will do.
New course means no course metrics. Can be a good thing and purely focus on recent play and standout player metrics. One thing I do know. This resort course is going to be eaten alive by these blokes and a record scoring week would certainly not surprise. I'd be even bullish to say that the over/under winning score might be in the -30 range. Couple this with absolutely massive landing areas on the fairways and no rough to speak of, even wayward shots can fall safely and a long way down. It might just come down to the putter this week, as Rahm would say, "fucking putting competition".
We shall see. The market is top heavy, dominated by Ludvig Aberg and Cameron Young. Quote simply, these two are the cream and in the fall swing series the cream has certainly risen to the top, with names like Tom Kim, Morikawa and Theegala getting the job done as favorite or bear enough to.
I think you can attack this tournament a couple of ways. If you like the top 2, keep the money in the pocket till after round 1 at least. It's rare to see a wire to wire winner and to be honest, you might get the same price after round 1 if the leaderboard is jammed and they are a few back. Alternative to this, of they open with a 63 they'll be unbackable at $2, but I'm willing to risk that wire to wire is off the table.
The guys who aren't the favs who I like this week are as follows
Hossler $26 - in wonderful form
Bhatia $36 - loves the tropics with close up finishes in all his Mexican and South of the border starts
Cam Champ $51 - bomber that will relish the wide fairways and no rough what so ever.
If you play these 3 with the top 2 favs, you get a price of 3.88. To be honest, this isnt horrible. In a fall swing where I haven't yet hit the target, it might be the way to go to get the runs on the board.
30 units at 3.88. = 116.4 return.
Season to date (including this week) = -115 units
Good luck
detonator, Gilgamesh likes this post.
We land in Bermuda this week for the Butterfield Bermuda championship. Historically, this is one of those weeks where not much attention is paid to this lowly event and generally the field is blasted by the lovely Caribbean weather, none more so then when Lucas Herbert won a few years ago in weather that was literally a hurricane. We should expect the weather to be a factor again this week but you can control that.
What we can control is the strategy in playing this tournament. Desperate times call for desperate measures and this week I will be changing things up in an attempt to reignite my wavering interests in what has been a dismal start.
The course is shorter than last week by about 600 yards, but the difference here is that it's a more typical PGA tour setup, making this a more positional course. The metrics favour many of the past winners in the field, of which there are many, extending back to 2009 when Lucas Glover too the title. Guys like Glover and Adam Scott are here to get the rep in for the coming signature events later in the season. Well, that's what I've decided anyway.
Past winners like Herbert, Power etc will be looking at this event and expecting a bold showing with knowledge they've played well before.
Newcomers like Bhatia are gagging to get another taste of victory. Unfortunately he has carried my weight a few times since his win at Barracuda and has fallen short. He is also $15 favorite in this field, absolute poisonous odds. I love the guy but not at $15.
With the course being positional and short, I've focused on wedge play within 125 yards, coupled with driving accuracy and putting.
A bevy of names are spat out of the machine, but a little surprised to see one name at the top of the list.
And that's where things change this week. In consultation with a few other sickos in this space, the pivot is to have one pre tournament bet and re assess after each round, adding players which look like they are feeling it this week but also statistically crushing it. Sticking to the weekly spend limit of 20-30 units, but it might not even come to that.
The saying is if it ain't broke don't fix it. But it seems a little broke at the moment so here we go.
Pre tournament I'm having 1.5 units on one Harry Hall at $67 to collect 100.5 units. Hall rates well in the above analysis and while others (like Griffen) look tasty and have been there abouts, this guy fits the profile at a great pre tournament number. Plus we have some wiggle room to add more when or if required.
So good luck of having a punt, we'll reconvene after rounds one and two and see where we are at.
This week -1.5
Overall to date -115
Season psition -116.5units
jum, detonator likes this post.
Disappointingly, Harry Hall scratched out a -2 on the day to sit 8 back. He is now $251.
So parsing through the day 1 data, one bloke stands out to me who fits the data mould and also is a decent price.
Davis Riley shot an opening 65 (-7) to be 3 back in 6th position. He hit 11/14 fairways and ranked highly in putting for the day. His round had 7 birdies, an eagle and a double bogey, where he made a mistake of 16 tee and found the hazard. He won't be the last bloke to so this this week and hopefully he got his mistake out the way early. He didn't have to scramble too much on the day and if he keeps hitting fairways he should continue to be right up there till Sunday .
Davis Riley 5 units at $17 to collect 85 units
This week now sits at -6.5 units
YTD -121.5
Have added Camillo Villegas to the lineup. He is playing well last two weeks and hopefully we don't stop him..
3.7 units at $23
This week now 10.2 units out
See you after round 3
This could be the start of a golf punting revolution
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Lots of Euro tour to keep us interested with tournaments in South Africa and here at home with the Aus Open this week. For those interested ive had something on Zander Lombard in south Africa and Marc Leishman in the Aussie Open.
But I digress.
The tour returns tonight affctionately know as the Hit and giggle Hero World Tour Championship
hosted by the Big Cat himself, Tiger Woods. Woods is playing but has got no hope what so ever, more will be made if he gets through the 72 hole, flattest course on tour, hang out with your mates, no cut event in Albany.
There are some metrics around this event and the only one that seems to stand out is around the green, which rates #1 out of all the courses tested.
But really, with so many colliding formlines and players coming off extended breaks, anything is possible.
I gone for more the eye test and those that have actually been swinging a club competitively.
The short list comprises of Hovland, Morikawa, Homa, with some creedence given to players like Justin Thomas and Wyndham Clarke.
This is a pretty easy stratification for me.
I cant have JT on his current form slump, even if he is paired with his best mate Tiger in round 1. Windy C has been competing (well playing) in europe but isnt doing enough for mine and has bigger targets in the new year.
Morikawa, not one of mine for a while now, especially after blowing a 5 shot lead 2 years ago on the verge of becoming number 1 in the world.....since then he has been in the wilderness however showed up in Japan last start (a month ago) with an emphatic 7 shot victory. Lots of Sake and Omakase I would have though over the last month makes for more of an appearance and catch up rather than a win.
That leaves my boy Hovland and Homa. In my opinion, Hovland is the best player in the world at the moment. He was a little disappointing down the stretch in the DP world Tour championship and was knocked off by a rampaging Nicolai Hojgaard. His short game rates extremely well now and has become a weapon rather than a weakness. He is though the 4.50 favorite, with good reason.
Then its Max Homa, who has come off a dominant 4 shot victory in South Africa for the Nedbank Sth African Open. He came into the event off a break hoping for the best. what he got was a mature and sublime game coming off the break which I could only think is a benefit coming into this. While the competition on Sth Africa wasnt the strongest, the course still rated hard and he did it with veritable ease.
So really, its come down to these two for me.
Ive taken the Tabtouch special of $30 for 10% plus and money back to get within 5 shots of the winner. I think this is an extrely safe but smart way to play this tournament and have odds of 9.25 for a collect of 27.75 units.
You could have 6.2 units on Hovland at $4.5 for the same collect above, which would give you a return of about 3-1 if either of then salute
I think we'll do that, so as follows
Homa 3 units at 9.25 (money back within 5 shots)
Hovland 6.1 units at 4.5
Collect 27.75 units
Standing at -55.25 units for the year with 9.1 out in this tournamnet
Good luck
jum likes this post.
Not so good for Hovland who stumbled late to +1.
Leaders at -5.
Tiger was in the mix with 4 holes to play and proceeded to play those last 4 holes in +4 to be at +3.
Poor old Zalatoris back from injury, had high hopes but capitulated to a +9 and sits DFL by a mile.