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GOLF PGA Tour Season 23/24

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H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
Well here we are again. Brand new thread for a brand new season!

 As stated in the last seasons thread, it was a profitable year for the third in a row. This has everything to do with trawling and stratifying the statistics from all angles, thanks to Rick Gehman from rickrungood.com. Ive found this to be an invaluable statitical package which allows you to parse out and find nuggest of gold within the deep recesses of the PGA tour fields week to week. 

This year, Ive opted not to employ any changes from last season. Last season, I did away with the first round leader betting, as, while fun, is even more of a lottery and I found was wasting hard earned profits from the sweats from outright wins.

So just as last year, the main concentration will be on the PGA Tour season, with a sprinkling of the LPGA girls and the DP World tour, who are ramping up with their Race to Dubai end of season championship.

So with that, lets dive into the first week of the new season!

Comments

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Week 1, we are back baby!

    Fortinet Championship, Silverado GC.

    Par 72 - 7126 yards

    Reigning Champ - Max Homa

    It was an absolutely bizarre finish last season in the Fortinet. Coming down the last hole, Danny Willet held a 1 shot lead over Max Homa standing on 18 tee. Willet finds trouble off the tee and Homa blasts one down the centre. Willet chips out and then sticks his 3rd shot to 3 feet. Homa, needing to find the green in 2, comes up short into the bunker. Needing what looks to be a hole out to win, fluffs one short of the green. With par looking inevitable and a near miss secod placing, Homa strides up and chips in for an unexpected birdie 4. Still Willet has a 3 footer for birdie and the win. In what was probably the melt down of the year last season, Willet proceeds 3 putt from 3 feet and take a bogey 6, which puts him one behind at the end and give Homa the back to back victory

    This year, Homa returns just 2 weeks before a Ryder Cup start in Rome. Incidentally, he and Thomas (also playing) were in Rome literally 48 hours ago. Will this affect their preparation? Probably not, as golf isnt as taxing physically as some of the other professional sports. These guys fly private and get the rest and support they need, not like us mere mortals. But are you willing to take $8 about Max (and $15 for Thomas) to find out? Short answer for me, NO.

    So i am bypassing the two big names which means room to play a few guys for the first event of the fall swing. I am playing 6 blokes who fit the category of a player who has excellent recent and course history with respect to approach and putting. There are a few form lines coming into this event as always, with european events and Korn Ferry tour events all coming together along with extended breaks for those who didnt play in the tour championship weeks. The course, while narrow, isnt penal if missing the fairway off the tee (short rough) and lends itself to guys that have a good approach game and especially wedge game from 150 yards and closer, whether it be rough or fairway.

    In odds order

    Cam Davis $26
    JJ Spaun $36
    Eric Cole $36
    Doug Ghim $51
    Davis Thompsom $51
    Scott Stallings $131

    You can play all 6 guys at these prices for a return of around $7.10.

    To start the season, im playing 25 units to return 177.48.

    Season 0 units

    This week -25

    Overall -25 units.

    Best of luck!

    Gilgamesh, jum likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    3 rounds down and we have our first sweat of the year. Cam Davis sits 2 off the lead and Eric Cole 3 off the lead behind Sahith going onto round 4. Davis rattled home late with 4 birdies to shoot 65 on Saturday and make the final grouping while Cole who was solid, stumbled on 16 with a short miss for par.
    Splitting them is a resurgent Justin Thomas who is also only 2 off the lead. Will be a great last round at a pretty friendly viewing time.

    If you like some early evening viewing, the euro tour at the BMW will also be a great last round with all the big dogs chasing down new sensation Ludvig Aberg en route to the Ryder cup in 2 weeks. Early bets should be around Europe, they look a great chance to keep their record over in Europe in tact against a stacked US team.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    A bit late with the update this week. Unfortunately both Cam Davis and Eric Cole slipped up on the last round and allowed Sahith to get out to too much of a break. Davis finished 3rd while Cole finished 4th, with Sahith Theegala winning his maiden PGA tour victory by 2 shots. It wasn't all plain sailing for him, but down the stretch he was the most consistent and he rolled the pitts in when he needed to. That win means a lot to him, securing his card through the next 2 seasons, qualifying for all the big designated events and also gains exemptions from the majors. Not to mention the 1.5 million into the kick.

    This week -25

    Season -25

    No PGA Tour this week, only Euro tour and LIV this week with a semi decent field contesting the French open and the normals going around at LIV Chicago. Hardest to beat in France is Tom Kim and Min Woo Lee while over in LIV, Cam Smith and Patrick Reed look two good hopes.

    Looking forward to the Ryder Cup next week in Rome. Oh to be in Italy next week!

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    And we are back baby, did you miss me?

    After a classic Ryder Cup and European win in historic Roma, we head back to the tour this week to the Sanderson Farms Championship at Jackson Country club, won last year by Candian Mackenzie Hughes.

    Ludvig Aberg heads the field at a very short $13 and I am salivating at taking him on. surely Ludvig had a few too many after the win and is still on a high after the weekend. Im hoping this is a hang over and he plays average.

    Statistically, it takes good approach and putting to succeed here, coupled with an overall strokes gained game. the computer has spat out the follwing blokes, who I have to say, are at a decent little price when coupled together for around an $8.05 return on your money

    Eric Cole $23
    Mark Hubbard $41
    SH Kim $41
    Sam Ryder $51
    Alex Noren $81

    All rank highly in the above mentioned metrics except for Ryder, who has decent course and recnt history and is worth a stab. The tournament lends itself to first time winners on tour (being so early on in the season AND because of this a lees than stellar field). to be honest, this looks like the perfect setup for Eric Cole and if you were going to go one out like a mad man then he would be the play. 

    Alas, my castagnas arent that big so i'll play all 5 for a result

    The customary 25 units out for 201.25 return. Lets get it early in the season!!

    Good luck

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Well after 3 fairly quiet, lacklustre rounds for the Sanderson Farms, things sure did heat up in the last round.

    If you like chaos, watch the last hour or two of the last round.

    I'm the end, Luke List wins a 5 man playoff by dropping a 40 foot bomb to take out Griffen, Norlander, Aberg and Stallings.

    Coming down the stretch, my guy, Hubbard, who started the day 8 back, was on an absolute heater on the back 9, getting the 19 under with 3 holes to play. He parred 16 and was 1 off the lead but I thought of he could get to 20 then it's game on, with the leaders stumbling and not scoring as prolifically.

    On 17, Hubbard is on for 14 feet from the hole. He rams his first putt 5 feet past the hole and then proceeds to do the same again. A gutting 3 putt to put him back to -18.

    Needing a birdie on the last (I thought), he stumbles again and bogies the last hole to move back to 17 under.

    Guttingly, the 5 that were in the playoff ended up finishing at 18 under. Absolute sick bag material going down by a shot when you bogey the last two holes.

    Leader Ben Griffen gave up a 3 shot lead and bogies the last hole to force the 5 man playoff. His 8 footer to win just veered right of the hole, catching the lip and denying the young man his first tour win.

    So many crazy things happened on that back nine, too many to list here.

    But in the end, it's a no collect this week, which is all that matters

    Season to date = -50 units

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    edited October 2023
    Rinse and repeat this week as the tour heads to the Shriners. The field is very similar to last week with this "fall swing" initiative with a couple of notable additions from the tour championship and Europe. Reigning champ Tom Kim returns after getting the job done for us last year against Patrick Cantlay in a playoff.

    The Shriners relies primarily on the putter this week. Because of the similarities in the field from last week, recency bias is always a factor but is well regarded given the quick turnaround.

    This week I'll be playing 7 blokes for a return of $4.85 Investing 30 units

    Aberg $15
    Schenck $29
    Poston $31
    Norrman $46
    NeSmith $71
    Stallings $91
    Dou $111

    A good spread of prices here. A couple of guys returning in Schenck and Poston after successful Tour Championship performances. Vincent Norrman has been in great form as well as Aberg. NeSmith, Stallings and Dou all showed up with the putter last week and I expect that to continue. Let's hope for a result this week

    Good luck


    detonator likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    A mixed bag overnight, the best being JT Poston sitting 2nd and well placed at -8. He had a great morning especially being first up from a spell.

    The rest were fairly average. A spread between -2 and +3. The cut will be around 5 or 6 so lots of work to be done I think
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    It was an incredibly frustrating weekend of golf for the bets this weekend and again the nett result is a 0 collect. 

    JT Poston leaving the 15th hole on Saturday was tied for the lead at 15 under par, looking solid as a rock to take the 3rd round lead. Frustrations of mine were already high, as up to that point, while leading the tournament, he had had 8 bogies to offset his low scoring. 

    Stepping onto the easy 16th Par 5, he pipes one down the left with a long iron in for two. An easy birdie, if not eagle coming. In true gut punching fashion, he proceeds to dump 2 balls in the water and walks off with a triple bogey 8. UNBELEIVABLE. 

    He salvages a birdie on the way in and finishes at -13, 2 shots behind a rampaging Tom Kim, Adam Hadwin and Lanto Griffen.

    Looking at the odds overnight and trying for more value, I noticed my old mate Eeric Cole was 7 shots back. A quick scorer, i wondered what his odds were and was very suprised to see him at 500-1.

    I promptly placed a 5ver on him at these odds and had an early night, hoping to awaj=ke toa JT Poston resurgence.

    What a suprise when I wake up and see Eric Cole is now leading the tournamnet at -17 and is 8 under through 14 holes! The leaders werent doing too much, including Poston, who was only 2 under on his round after 9 holes and 3 back of the leader Cole. As if the golfing punting gods were just waiting for me to wake up, Eric Cole proceeds to par the 15th by missing a 5 foot putt, then parring the asy par 5 16th. A birdie on 17 put him at -18 but in my mind I knew 20 was the number. He missed a 13 footer for birdie on the last to get to at least 19, which in the ned wasnt enough, but alas he was stuck as clubhouse leader at -18 and would require a meltodwn from Tom Kim and Adam Hadwin who had now also joinged him at 18 under with holes to play.

    JT Poston my only remaining hope, couldnt get the round going as he did on day 1. He birdied 12 to get to -16 and really needed to play the last 6 holes in 4 under. A tall task but very possible in the closing stretch. Unfortunately, he parred the par 5 13th, missed a couple of makeable putts on 14 and 15 and all was lost. UNTIL he EAGLES 16 with a sublime second shot into the par 5 where he took an 8 yesterday. Now at -18 with 2 to play, I was invigorated again and hoped for a birdie-birdie finish. It wasnyt to be and unfortunately he was also stuck at -18 leaving Hadwin and Kim to battle it out.

    In the end it was Tom kim who was able to prevail by 1 shot, over a game Hadwin, who made a very costly mistake on 16 dumping an easy second shot into the water. Hadwin made my shortlist initially for this tournamnt but scribbed him at the last minute for some extra juice. Its always the way, the first instinct is usually right.

    Anyway, that was a long winded way of saying im frusutrated and disappointed. But will regroup this week. The tips may be late or not at all with work commitments out of state, but I'll do my best!

    Season to date  -75 units

    detonator, Voodoo likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Have had a couple.of pre tournament bets on the Zozo championship starting today

    Sungjae Im $15
    Min Woo Lee $17
    Eric Cole $34

    Just 10 units out this far for 65 back.

    jum likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Absolute carnage today in Japan with the wind causing havoc with most. Cole the best of mine shooting +1 and being at -4, 3 shots behind big beau hossler. Sungjae also got away with a +1 for the day and is -2 while Min Woo struggled a bit carding a +3 and being at +2.

    There's no cut, so there's still a chance!
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    The last round has started in Japan and Eric Cole is a top of the leaderboard with Justin Suh and Collin Morikawa at -9.

    There are plenty of chaser so it's going to a full on round. Even Min Woo Lee who is 6 back could get hot, he started with and eagle on the rough par 4. You never know

    But we on the Cole Train today toot toot
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    9 holes down and it appears it's Morikawa to lose.

    He leads at -10, 2 ahead of Cole and the rest. The other teasers have faultered and a few chasers are starting to appear.

    A good back nine coming
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    And an unlucky bogey for a Cole puts him back to -7 and 4 back.

    It's over.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    As mentioned, Morikawa won in a canter in the end. It could not have been a more obvious and expected win by Morikawa, with punters who were willing to bet on the 2 time.major winner rubbing their hands after 9 holes. The simple fact of the matter was that all his opposition were non winners on the tour. He showed the maturity and experience to go bogey free for the day while his opponents were all scared of winning.

    Eric Cole finished second again, a whopping 6 shots back. His day could not have started better, birdie on the first hole and equal leader. Then it all went to shite and he finished the day even and on -8. While unlucky in a few areas, his approach and short game weren't what it was over the first 3 days.

    In truly annoying fashion, Min Woo Lee charged home with a Sunday 65 and finished T6, with literally one bad round spelling the end for his week. Granted it was a 3 over on the toughest day of the 4 but frustrating nonetheless. He looks to get another win somewhere soon and also looks to have secured his PGA tour card for 2024. I look forward to burning more cash on him soon.

    Sungjae was there about for the first two days. Maybe a little rust set in on him with such an extended break. He's one to keep an eye on.

    And when it's all said and done, it's another 0 return after 4 x fall events.

    A week off this week and then back into it next week.

    May have a few LPGA thoughts for the coming weekend as we can't just sit on our hands can we.

  • jumjum    3,527 posts
    How good is golf Bomber.  :x :x <:-P
    A few mates and I won the WA PGA Scramble at Araluen yesterday.
    Won an all-expenses trip to the Gold Coast. in 6 weeks', time.
    Playing and staying at the Sanctuary Cove country club.
    4 days of golf and 2 days of leisure. Cant wait
  • detonatordetonator    4,375 posts
    Well done Jum. Very envious. 
    Thought I would share my golf story.
    Played in one of those corporate "ambrose" golf days at Joondalup.
    The winning team came in with a net score that started with a 4.
    I worked it back and all the team would have to have been on a 27 hcp and their team score would have to have been 18 under par. Youngest person in their group would have been late 40`s at best.
    The guy who accepted the trophy (after they got the coldest reception I have ever seen or heard) opened with "geez we had a good day". Hahahahaha =))

    jum, H-BOMBER likes this post.

  • jumjum    3,527 posts
    edited October 2023
    detonator said:

    Well done Jum. Very envious. 

    Thought I would share my golf story.
    Played in one of those corporate "ambrose" golf days at Joondalup.
    The winning team came in with a net score that started with a 4.
    I worked it back and all the team would have to have been on a 27 hcp and their team score would have to have been 18 under par. Youngest person in their group would have been late 40`s at best.
    The guy who accepted the trophy (after they got the coldest reception I have ever seen or heard) opened with "geez we had a good day". Hahahahaha =))

    =))
    That is a very good day. We had an honest 59 of the stick. 13 birdies and one eagle. worst part is we had eagle putts on all the par 5s and only nailed 1 
    Won by .1 so you could say we were kissed on the ....

    detonator likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    jum said:

    How good is golf Bomber.  :x :x <:-P

    A few mates and I won the WA PGA Scramble at Araluen yesterday.
    Won an all-expenses trip to the Gold Coast. in 6 weeks', time.
    Playing and staying at the Sanctuary Cove country club.
    4 days of golf and 2 days of leisure. Cant wait


    Oh man that is absolutely siiiick. 59 off the stick?! Farkin hell

    Araluen too, beast of a course. I played the blacks there a few months back when it's was torrential rain and wind, shot 100

    If one of your guys suddenly does or.gets very I'll please consider your old mate :D

    jum likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Some bonus content for the sickos among us

    LPGA

    Ewart-Shadoff $34
    Lydia KO $34
    Jennifer Kupcho $51
    Perrine Delacore $101

    Qatar Masters

    Marcel Siem $34/8.50 each way

    Good luck

    detonator likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Had a double after round 1 with the LPGA and Qatar

    Hannah Green
    Daniel Hiller

    80-1

    Also had a small spec on Alvaro Quiros at $251

    That will do.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    The tour is headed to Mexico this week to a Tiger designed course. It's fair to say, I'm sure Tiger didn't have the tour in mind when designing this resort course, but with LIV stealing Mayacoba from the tour schedule then it's El Cardonal at Diamante this year.

    New course means no course metrics. Can be a good thing and purely focus on recent play and standout player metrics. One thing I do know. This resort course is going to be eaten alive by these blokes and a record scoring week would certainly not surprise. I'd be even bullish to say that the over/under winning score might be in the -30 range. Couple this with absolutely massive landing areas on the fairways and no rough to speak of, even wayward shots can fall safely and a long way down. It might just come down to the putter this week, as Rahm would say, "fucking putting competition".

    We shall see. The market is top heavy, dominated by Ludvig Aberg and Cameron Young. Quote simply, these two are the cream and in the fall swing series the cream has certainly risen to the top, with names like Tom Kim, Morikawa and Theegala getting the job done as favorite or bear enough to.

    I think you can attack this tournament a couple of ways. If you like the top 2, keep the money in the pocket till after round 1 at least. It's rare to see a wire to wire winner and to be honest, you might get the same price after round 1 if the leaderboard is jammed and they are a few back. Alternative to this, of they open with a 63 they'll be unbackable at $2, but I'm willing to risk that wire to wire is off the table.

    The guys who aren't the favs who I like this week are as follows

    Hossler $26 - in wonderful form
    Bhatia $36 - loves the tropics with close up finishes in all his Mexican and South of the border starts
    Cam Champ $51 - bomber that will relish the wide fairways and no rough what so ever.

    If you play these 3 with the top 2 favs, you get a price of 3.88. To be honest, this isnt horrible. In a fall swing where I haven't yet hit the target, it might be the way to go to get the runs on the board.

    30 units at 3.88. = 116.4 return.

    Season to date (including this week) = -115 units

    Good luck

    detonator, Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    With a new week comes a renewed sense of optimism in what has been a disastrous start to the PGA tour season. No excuses, just tough fields to parse out and not hitting the dart board at all. As I said, this week is a new week so LFG.

    We land in Bermuda this week for the Butterfield Bermuda championship. Historically, this is one of those weeks where not much attention is paid to this lowly event and generally the field is blasted by the lovely Caribbean weather, none more so then when Lucas Herbert won a few years ago in weather that was literally a hurricane. We should expect the weather to be a factor again this week but you can control that.

    What we can control is the strategy in playing this tournament. Desperate times call for desperate measures and this week I will be changing things up in an attempt to reignite my wavering interests in what has been a dismal start.

    The course is shorter than last week by about 600 yards, but the difference here is that it's a more typical PGA tour setup, making this a more positional course. The metrics favour many of the past winners in the field, of which there are many, extending back to 2009 when Lucas Glover too the title. Guys like Glover and Adam Scott are here to get the rep in for the coming signature events later in the season. Well, that's what I've decided anyway.

    Past winners like Herbert, Power etc will be looking at this event and expecting a bold showing with knowledge they've played well before.

    Newcomers like Bhatia are gagging to get another taste of victory. Unfortunately he has carried my weight a few times since his win at Barracuda and has fallen short. He is also $15 favorite in this field, absolute poisonous odds. I love the guy but not at $15.

    With the course being positional and short, I've focused on wedge play within 125 yards, coupled with driving accuracy and putting.

    A bevy of names are spat out of the machine, but a little surprised to see one name at the top of the list.

    And that's where things change this week. In consultation with a few other sickos in this space, the pivot is to have one pre tournament bet and re assess after each round, adding players which look like they are feeling it this week but also statistically crushing it. Sticking to the weekly spend limit of 20-30 units, but it might not even come to that.

    The saying is if it ain't broke don't fix it. But it seems a little broke at the moment so here we go.

    Pre tournament I'm having 1.5 units on one Harry Hall at $67 to collect 100.5 units. Hall rates well in the above analysis and while others (like Griffen) look tasty and have been there abouts, this guy fits the profile at a great pre tournament number. Plus we have some wiggle room to add more when or if required.

    So good luck of having a punt, we'll reconvene after rounds one and two and see where we are at.

    This week -1.5

    Overall to date -115

    Season psition -116.5units

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Round 1 in the books and a blistering 61 from "regularly punted by me" Alex Noren sees him 2 shots clear of the pack, where low scoring was the norm. Noren is now heavy $4.50 favorite. Poison.

    Disappointingly, Harry Hall scratched out a -2 on the day to sit 8 back. He is now $251.

    So parsing through the day 1 data, one bloke stands out to me who fits the data mould and also is a decent price.

    Davis Riley shot an opening 65 (-7) to be 3 back in 6th position. He hit 11/14 fairways and ranked highly in putting for the day. His round had 7 birdies, an eagle and a double bogey, where he made a mistake of 16 tee and found the hazard. He won't be the last bloke to so this this week and hopefully he got his mistake out the way early. He didn't have to scramble too much on the day and if he keeps hitting fairways he should continue to be right up there till Sunday .

    Davis Riley 5 units at $17 to collect 85 units

    This week now sits at -6.5 units

    YTD -121.5

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Round 2 in the books and it's still Noren showing them a clean pair of heels. He sits at -15. Whole everyone was going low Davis Riley and Harry Hall both decided to just play it safe. Riley sits at -10, 5 off the lead. He shot -3 and needs a scintillating Saturday.

    Have added Camillo Villegas to the lineup. He is playing well last two weeks and hopefully we don't stop him..

    3.7 units at $23

    This week now 10.2 units out

    See you after round 3
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Round 3 done and our man Camillo shot a sublime 65 on Saturday to only sit one shot back from Noren who has lead from go to whoah. We all know that players never win wire to wire so confident Villegas can atone for last weeks near miss and get the job done for 85 units. Currently have a 10 unit cash out but I like to let it ride.

    This could be the start of a golf punting revolution
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Camilo the Colombiano gets it done in Bermuda!

    It was a battle royale in the final round between Villegas and Noren. Both were level pegging after 8 holes whe Noren stumbled twice on 9 and 10 to have 2 bogies in a row. Villegas was just making pars and the guys chasing just werent doing enough. 

    Noren got back to 1 behind with 4 holes to play. Hole 15 was a cracker, Noren sticking it to 12 feet then Villegas answers by smashing into the pin and dropping a foot from the hole. Both made birdie to stay at 1 the difference.

    Pars were made on the par 3 16th then the 17th was the nail in the coffin for Noren, who made a sloppy par while Villegas hit a beautiful bunker shot to tap in for birdie and take a 2 shot lead down the last. From there it was painless viewing and Camilo wins for the first time in 9 years.

    It was another emotional win this week as Camilo has had a tough 9 years, mainly through losing his 2 yo daughter to Glioblastoma in 2020. The silver lining is his wife and his charity now bringing awareness and raising money for the cause. 

    Well it only took 6 events and an overhaul of the strategy to get a win on the board. A real "where were you moment "
    :))

    But seriously, its very satifying to pivot and be dynamic and trust the process to try and get back on track. And thats what happened with a minimal outlay this week. 

    85 units jump into the kick and as follwos

    YTD -121.5

    this week +85

    Overall -36.5 units.

    Off to Bali at the end of the week but will still have some thoughts for the RSM Classic Starting Thursday night. Till then, viva la colombia!!

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  • jumjum    3,527 posts
    Big H is back.  <:-P

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Short and sweet this week. The tail is up and Bali bound in the morning!

    Had a few bets pre tournmant. Tne RSM is played across 2 courses on the first two days, the Seaside course and the Plantation course.

    The Plantaion course plays a lot easier thatn Seaside. 10 of the last 13 winners have strated on Plantation. You need a hot start and carry it through to the weekend, where the last two rounds are on Seaside. 

    So saying that, Ive gone for a few blokes starting on Plantation. Driving accuracy and putting is a must.

    Favorites are Aberg and Harman and while they are the ones to beat, at $13 and $15 I cant have them. If aberg was to win one this year, this is it.

    Ive gone a lot wider

    As follows

    Brendan Todd $34
    Camillo Villegas $67
    Will Gordon $126
    Troy Merrit $226

    All these blokes are accurate and putt well and start on Plantation (except Villegas). Villegas is more of a sentimental bet this week after last week, no reason he cant win again.

    7.5 units out for approx 125 units back

    Also had a double across the DP world tour championship

    Aberg (RSM) and Hovland (DP Champ) 1.5 units at 80-1

    Good luck!

    This week

    -9 units

    Overall -45.5 units

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    edited November 2023
    Very quiet on the PGA tour front with the fall swing completing 2 weeks ago with "Lud The Stud" getting the W in emphatic fashion.

    Lots of Euro tour to keep us interested with tournaments in South Africa and here at home with the Aus Open this week. For those interested ive had something on Zander Lombard in south Africa and Marc Leishman in the Aussie Open.

    But I digress.

    The tour returns tonight affctionately know as the Hit and giggle Hero World Tour Championship
    hosted by the Big Cat himself, Tiger Woods. Woods is playing but has got no hope what so ever, more will be made if he gets through the 72 hole, flattest course on tour, hang out with your mates, no cut event in Albany.

    There are some metrics around this event and the only one that seems to stand out is around the green, which rates #1 out of all the courses tested.

    But really, with so many colliding formlines and players coming off extended breaks, anything is possible.

    I gone for more the eye test and those that have actually been swinging a club competitively.

    The short list comprises of Hovland, Morikawa, Homa, with some creedence given to players like Justin Thomas and Wyndham Clarke.

    This is a pretty easy stratification for me.

    I cant have JT on his current form slump, even if he is paired with his best mate Tiger in round 1. Windy C has been competing (well playing) in europe but isnt doing enough for mine and has bigger targets in the new year.

    Morikawa, not one of mine for a while now, especially after blowing a 5 shot lead 2 years ago on the verge of becoming number 1 in the world.....since then he has been in the wilderness however showed up in Japan last start (a month ago) with an emphatic 7 shot victory. Lots of Sake and Omakase I would have though over the last month makes for more of an appearance and catch up rather than a win.

    That leaves my boy Hovland and Homa. In my opinion, Hovland is the best player in the world at the moment. He was a little disappointing down the stretch in the DP world Tour championship and was knocked off by a rampaging Nicolai Hojgaard. His short game rates extremely well now and has become a weapon rather than a weakness. He is though the 4.50 favorite, with good reason.

    Then its Max Homa, who has come off a dominant 4 shot victory in South Africa for the Nedbank Sth African Open. He came into the event off a break hoping for the best. what he got was a mature and sublime game coming off the break which I could only think is a benefit coming into this. While the competition on Sth Africa wasnt the strongest, the course still rated hard and he did it with veritable ease.

    So really, its come down to these two for me.

    Ive taken the Tabtouch special of $30 for 10% plus and money back to get within 5 shots of the winner. I think this is an extrely safe but smart way to play this tournament and have odds of 9.25 for a collect of 27.75 units.

    You could have 6.2 units on Hovland at $4.5 for the same collect above, which would give you a return of about 3-1 if either of then salute

    I think we'll do that, so as follows

    Homa 3 units at 9.25 (money back within 5 shots)
    Hovland 6.1 units at 4.5

    Collect 27.75 units

    Standing at -55.25 units for the year with 9.1 out in this tournamnet

    Good luck


    jum likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Good start for Max being only 2 back after round 1.

    Not so good for Hovland who stumbled late to +1.

    Leaders at -5.

    Tiger was in the mix with 4 holes to play and proceeded to play those last 4 holes in +4 to be at +3.

    Poor old Zalatoris back from injury, had high hopes but capitulated to a +9 and sits DFL by a mile.
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