what a last 18 holes of viewing. By far, this was the best tournamnt for the year. Hands down.
I tuned in as Scottie teed off, and it was a pretty lack lustre start fro him. He parred the first 3 holes and he really should have been 1 or 2 under after those holes to be any chance. Number 2 is a birdie chance and he had a short look at 3. He stepped onto 4 and i was about to swithch off, as I thought it was a bridge too far being 5 back with 15 to play. He pipes a drive down the middle of the hole and then he proceeds to hole out from 100 yards in what was an amazing approach shot and it got me out of my chair and all lathered up, as that eagle putr him 3 back. He birdies 5 and then it was on like Donkey Kong.
A few more birdies and he turns in 31 and all of a sudden he has erased the deficiet. The leaders were going along fine and birdied holes where they had to, but nothing special. Coming to the back nine, its Xnader by 1 shot with Clark and Harman and scheffler all only 1 back. With scorable holes to come, Scheffler missed a couple of short ones and then coming to the easiest hole number 16, he prompty birdies that hole and then steadily pars 17 and 18 to get in at 20 under.
Xander and Clark were only on hole 14 at this stage and Harman was on hole15 and to be honest, I didnt think 20 was enough.
Xander has 2 bogeys in a row. Clark has got the bad case of the "lefts" and is missing greens. Harman couldnt buy a putt.
Xander made a clutch birdie at 16 and Clark had an 11 footer for eagle to get one back. He singes the cup and makes easy birdie to then set the stage for hole 17. Clark is 2 back and Xander is one back.
Both absolutely stuff their shots and unbeleivably, there were only 3 birdies all day?? Xander steps up and MISSES! Clark prompty brushes the ball in and coming to the last, both are at -19 and all the while Harman is on the green for 2 with a birdie putt.
Harman just misses and statys at -19.
Its all down to the last two.
Xander misses the fairway and Clark is down the middle. Xander from the pine straw goes long on the green and has a 60 footer to force a playoff. Clark from the middle of the fairway is short but has a 17 footer tie force the playoff. Xander expectedly missed and he stays at -19.
Its all down to Clark. He lines up, strokes the absolute perfect roll, its heading dead centre and then unbeleivably it takes a full 360 around the cup where the ball literally half disappeared. Even Clark had the fist pump all wound up as he thought it was down and was ready for the playoff.
But alas it was not to be and Scheffler wins back to back Players Championships. The first ever in tournmant history in 50 years. He also tied the course record and it was the biggest comeback ever in Players history.
It was late, but i lobbed 5 units at $12 on Scheffler which at the time, was a very speculative bet at that price. But true to form, he is the only guy that had the capability to do this.
Out this week -14.5
Back this week +60
Overall -131.71 units
Slowly clawing things back!!
Valspar is in 3 days. Some good sleeps in the next few days then back into it !
A donut last week unfortunately. JT was leading the tournament after 37 holes. Then played his next 17 holes.in +8 to eject in style. He lost over 7 strokes alone on the greens. To put that in perspective, it was the 31st worst putting performance in the 250000+ measured rounds recorded in the shot link era. You read that correctly. 31st. Ever.
We are in Texas the next two weeks. Scottie Schefflers home town. And he is playing the next two weeks. He might just win both and the Masters for good measure over the next 3 weeks.
He opens 3.50 favorite for the Houston Open. We haven't seen these odds since Tiger.
The Texas Childrens Hospital Houston Open starts tonight!
Memorial Park Golf course, Par 70 at 7435 yards, plays long but very forgiving comparable to the Florida swing we just have.
Tony Finau is defending here but is in a form slump. Asa mentioned above, Scheffler is all guns blazing at the moment and is coming off two wins. Can he be beaten.
Ofcourse. But the odds makers say he is going to be damn hard to beat opening at 3.50 pre tournament. While it is never a put in and take out job, its the closest you'll come to for some time. If you are inclined to have one bet only for the win, he fits the bill.
Leads in all facets of the game except putting, however, that seemingly has been fixed if the last two starts are anything to go by.
If you look at the top 15 in strokes gained TOTAL for the PGA Tour this season, ofcourse Scheffler is light years ahead.
But consider this. His strokes gained approach number alone would sit at number 4 against all other players TOTAL and his off the tee numbers are good enough to sit 11th overall.
It cannot be overstated the dominance and mind blowing numbers this guy continues to go at.
Only Wyndham Clark and Sahith Theegala are closest to him odds wise. Clark has finished runner up to Scheffler in his last two wins and looks to aquit himself well again.
Im actually leaning towards Theegala here in what looks to be a forgiving course. Theegala has been playing very well and been therabouts in these big foeld and signature events, but his slight erraticness and enigmatic approacgh sees him just fall short.
Here, I think he can show up. Can he win? Always a chance. Im more a proponent of thinking he can be close up and figure in the finish only to have Scheffler just kill them off on the back nine of Sunday.
Theegala is $21 to win pre tournment. 2.5 units here is worth a dabble in case Scheffler oesnt show up.
Im pretty keen on the finishing position.
Top 5 $5
Top 10 $3.50
Im a bit conservative and there is a greater probability of there being ties in the top 5 which severely reduces your potential collect, hence the higher odds of course.
I think a top 10 at this number is enticing so will have a stab for 10 units at $3.50
Lastly, have a go at the forecast (Top 2)
Scheffler to beat Thegala in order $81. 1 unit here.
Overall this week 13.5 unts out for collects potentially of 52.5, 35 and 81 units.
1st round in the books.and well, it could be over. Scheffler sits 1 back at -5.
I watched his whole round. He hit 11 greens in regulation all day. Without a bogey on the card he had 7/7 up and down from tricky spots, gained over 2 shots on the field on the greens alone all while having his worst approach round on some time. He finds his approach again well shit the door.
Sahith was disappointing, even though he had the tougher afternoon wave. He finished even, so 6 shots back, but he lost over 2.5 shots on the green, and missed a few easy birdie chances coming in. Hopefully that can turn around in round 2 which is about to get under way.
Scheffler is now 2.20. The opening 3.50 looks nice now but still 3 rounds to go.
3 rounds in the books and we have a 5 way tie for the lead at -9.
Scheffler is one of the 5, who was 4 back after two rounds where all the leaders faultered while he was steady as she goes, shooting 4 under with what was an interesting round. 8 birdies. 2 bogeys. A double. 7 pars. Not often you'll have 8 birdies and shoot 4 under. His double was a little unlucky, he stuffed it on the par 3 and then got an incredible amount of spin which put him back in the water.
Sahith had a -2 round and he unfortunately has struggled with putting this week. He has looked very frustrated/annoyed all week and he hasn't anywhere been near it, yet he sits 7 back.
One I have my eye on is Tom Hoge. Great ball striker and is going under the radar. He sits 4 back and has the potential to go very low on Sunday. He is $126 and I think this look like a good little price.
Also, Scheffler is now $2.54 favorite to win after being 3.50 pre tournament. Again, there is never a put in and take out scenario but let's be honest, it's pretty close to it here. He shares the lead with Skinns, Detry, Tosti and Jaeger. Not exactly behemoths in the golfing world.
I'm having 1 unit Hoge at $126 and another 5.5 units Scheffler at $2.54 to add to my other bets this week.
For those playing at home, Scheffler missed a 5 footer on the last hole to force a playoff with ultimate winner Jaeger
No collect last week again.
I'm away at the moment so no preview this week at Texas Valero
Rory heads a good field here leading into the Masters. I don't mind Horshal on face value this week with a strong showing last week. Players will be getting their reps in before Masters week next week.
Will have a decent preview early next week for The Masters.
Back in range from a beautiful part of the world, Manjimup.
Round 1 in the books for Texas and it's Akshay Bhatia carding a 9 under 63 to lead by 3 shots from the rest. He was bogey free.
Surely he can't keep the pace.
So must have a bet.
Looking through the highlights and round 1 stats, I like 3 blokes at good prices. They are a fair way back but I'm counting the lead as 6 under right now.
Spieth $71/$15 top 5 - he sits at +1. It was the Spieth of all Spieth cards where he had 7 pars, 5 bogeys, a double bogey, 4 birdies and a hole in one for good measure! All for a 73. He is what he is and he is off early tonight and has the ability to have a 62 or an 82. I'm hoping the former and had 1 unit each way at the price.
Lucas Glover $51 - sits at -2 and 7 back, he started with 3 bogeys and then reeled off 4 birdies in a row on the back nine. He found something that side and hopefully it's enough to keep the momentum. Excellent ball striker and worth a play. 1 unit win.
Adam Svensson $51 - sits at -3. A very good round and has been showing up on leaderboards lately and is I nthe hunt here. The Canadian can keep it going and the price is right. 1 unit win.
Having a novelty play as well for interest. I reckon the leaderboard will be packed come Sunday and I reckon a playoff ensues. $5 for this to happen and I've got 3 units here.
Looking forward to sitting down in the next hour and watching the early groups. Best of luck.
Adam Svensson shoots +3 to go back to Even. He makes the cut but forget him.
Glover had an even round and stays at -2. He was dreadfully unlucky with the putter with many looks but shaving the cup.
Spieth came.oit breathing fire. He was 3 under through 3 holes and was 4 under through 5 holes. He stabilized and stumbled at the turn with bogey/birdie/bogey and then had an absolute sloppy bogey on the last with a missed 3 footer. He sits at 3 under and is now 8 off the lead of Bhatia, who to his credit, bounced back after a very shakey start to post -11.
He is 5 ahead of the pack. I'll stand by my call of he can't keep it going, but he looks like he needs a couple of 70s on the weekend and he might be home.
Spieth is now $29 so will be cheering him for a Saturday 65 and then you never know.
In true Speith form, he had a very interesting day out.
He bogies the first two holes. Then he played the next 15 holes 4 under. Then he played what could be said to be the most obscure hole of the year, making double bogey on the last par 5, one of the easiest holes on the course.
He went wide. He played from a drain. He hit the ball intentionally on a roof. He 3 putted. Then went and signed autographs for an hour.
He could win the Masters next week.
He is 11 back, but now 4 shots out of 5th place. A birdie on 18 would have him T6. Alas his double dropped him back to T17th.
Bhatia $1.89 on the fair as they tee off on the 18th . You get the feeling that Indian money is still being bet on him because McCarthy should be the fav instead of $2.10
What a finish with Akshay getting it done wire to wire!
I woke up with 3 holes to play. It was a great finish with both going blow for blow, Denny birdies the last 7 holes regulation and makes Bhatia have to nail an 11 footer to tie. He was as much as 6 in front with 9 holes to play till Denny went on a tear. The playoff ended when Denny finally stumbled and chunked a wedge into the water leaving Bhatia with a 2 putt only to win. He needed one and secured his second PGA tournament win and a birth in the Masters.
I salvaged something in the end with the playoff. 15 units jumps in the pot making it a +8 unit week
Here it is. The biggest week on the golfing calender for the Mens professional game. 89 players will come down Magnolia Lane and tee it up in the 88th Masters. This year we see the shortest price favorite in many years, Scottie Scheffler.
Weve all seen the countless videos of highlights over the years, none more than from Greg Normans capitulation to Nick Faldo and of course, the most iconic of all, the Tiger chip in which essentially looked like an add for the Nike Swoosh, sitting on the cup and dropping in.
Well, who will win? As with all Majors, the field is stacked with quality and the cream always rises to the top. The Masters is a little different, in that its the only Major played at the same venue every year. Also, the field is reduced to 89 starters, making the cut top 50 and ties.
If you want an excellent preview elimianting players one by one to find an eventual winner, based on certain statistics and facts, the PGA Tour website offers this at the follwing
Long story short if you dont want to visit, they have narrowed the field to Xander Schauffele winning. Some very interesting facts to consider
In 44 years, no Masters debutant has won the Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Incidently, those who are superstitious would be thrilled to know when this happened, it was the LAST FULL SOLAR ECLIPSE. For those not in the know, we had a full solar eclipse yesterday, the first in 44 years....
The betting favorite has not won the Masters since 2005 TIGER. So goodbye Scheffler?
Plenty other of tidbits, but here are my thoughts and picks for this year.
Rankings out of 52 in brackets.
Course key statistics focus on tee to green (3), Par 5 scoring average (6) around the green (9) and driving distance (10).
Looking at Tee to Green, Scheffeler tops the list from Niemann, Rahm, Schauffele, Dechambeau and Matsuyama. Similaraly, an overall statistically adjusted fit gives the same output, while around the green metrics lean heavily to Matsuyama, justin Thomas, Scheffler and Schaufele.
If we apply a power ranking calculation to players including course and overall strokes gained metrics, a slightly different list of players bores out, with Overall weighted strokes gained measurements rank Scheffler in number one, followed closely by Schauffele, then Aberg, Matsuyama, Theegala and Wyndham Clarke. If we parse this out to Tee to Green only (the most highly ranked staistical measuremnt for this course), again, Scheffler is a top of the pile from Schauffele, Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim and Aberg.
If we limit the statistical measurements to the last 4 years and look at overall strokes gained, then I think we get the final picture. Will Zalatoris heads the list from Rahm, Theegala, Scheffler, Schaufele and Matsuyama, with individual metrics such as Tee to Green and Around the green throwing upo the usual suspects in Scheffler, Matsuyam, Spieth, Schauffele and Rahm.
Historically, players that rate well here are Rahm with top 10s every year outside one year (5/6), ofcourse Brooks Koepka who always plays well at Majors and is the current PGA Champion and one other that always plays well here is Patrick Reed.
Lastly, one nugget i found that stood out to me was that Jordan Spieth has the highest birdies per round average and largest differential to bogies per round, closley followed by Will Zalatoris.
What does it mean? Well looking at this data, its pretty clear that Scheffler is a notch above all comers. Unfortunately his price dictates that I am not headed in his direction, certainly pre tournament. If he has a decent number on Saturday night and is with 5 shots, i might have a crack. But not at the $5 pre tournament.
My picks in (best odds) order
Xander Schaufele ($17) Hideki Matsuyama ($21) Jordan Spieth ($23) Jaoquin Niemann ($26) Will Zalatoris ($41)
Im not going to go through each as to why, where and how. But I think there is a good mix of past champions, good form and statistically relevant information. At the above prices, the combined arbitrage is around the $3.70 mark which in my book is worthwhile.
Im putting in 30 units here officially for 141 unit return.
If punting 5 blokes is not for you, I would be playing Xander Schaufele one out using the Tabtouch money back + 10% special. You can have up to $200 on him at $16.40 with money back if he finishes 10 shots or better from the winner. Kudos to WA TAB for this promo, you wont find better i would think.
Lastly, if betting Tiger is your thing, the only bet to make is him to make the cut at even money ($2), which would be a suprise given the lack of golf he has played, HOWEVER, he has never missed the cut as a professional.
Officially though, 30 units out his week on the 5 blokes. Updates after every round and suggestions.
The conditions were unbelievable. The scoring average was over 75.
There were elections left right and centre, none more than Justin Thomas, who was at Even par for the tournament with 4 holes to play. Even par was tied for 10th at the time. He played the last 4 holes 7 over, allowing the cut to move to +6 and letting in 11 guys, while simultaneously booting himself out of the tournament.
It's tied at the top with DeChambeau, Scottie and Homa all tied at -6. Only 14 blokes under par.
As mentioned, the cut was at +6. All my blokes made.it except Speith, who on resumption had a 9 on the par 5 15th and finished round 1 at +7. A +2 second round was actually gaining strokes on the field, but he was too far back in the conditions and missed.
My best bloke is Xander at a very respectable even par. Niemann and Zalatoris found the conditions very tough shooting +6 and +5 whole.Hodeki makes the cut on the number.
Anything can happen, but I'm praying Xander gets into contention.
Scottie Scheffler wins the 2024 Masters by 4 shots, from a game Ludvig Aberg, with a further 3 shots back to Morikawa, Homa and Fleetwood.
It was game.on after 8 holes, with 4 players tied for the lead at 7 under.
Then the cream definitely rose to the top.
Morikawa, double bogey on holes 9 and 11. Water ball on 11 put paid to his chances.
Aberg, water ball also on 11, caused him to stumble. He was able to get those shots back in the end but it was a bridge too far.
Finally Homa, negotiated the hard 11th and then over shot the green on 12 and had to take unplayable, only to take double bogey as well.
All the while, Scheffler was just parring and birdieing away as he does. The inevitable was delayed by a hole.or two at 11 and 12, but with the par 5s coming his tournament was safe.
It was a demolition job in my opinion, seeing off all comers from the outset, nothing worries this bloke in the slightest. He continues on a historic year and he could actually win 8 times this season. Not seen since the likes of prime Tiger. The Masters is his 4th win of the season and since the mallet change, he has gone 4 starts for 3 wins and a very close second.
It's always easy after the fact, but 5.50 was available for Scheffler at the jump with a 10 shot money back buffer. Sometimes.you can't see the forest from the trees.
My out rights all failed, but Zalatoris showed some fight on Day 4, which puts him in a good position going forward for the season. Xander disappointed as usual, he was there at -2 and a couple.of early bogies destroyed his chances. He ended up at -1 for the tournament and those that actually read these previews hopefully we're smarter than me and took my advice of a one out single bullet with the 10 shot money back guarantee. He finished exactly 10 back.
Also, hopefully someone got on the even money Tiger to make the cut. A phenomenal effort and the weekend showed how much it took out of him, finishing +16 in the end and 27 shots from the winner. Unfortunate I think it's is time for the big cat to make arrangements for the Champions tour and get cart relief where he can. We want to see him win again but it ain't going to be on the big boy tour anymore. He has nothing to prove.
And with that, we capitulate again to -194 units for the season. It has been a rough one and in the last 3 years it has been positive at this point of the year. The fields have become more and more even with plenty of value to be had, it's just that the golfers that have been winning have had fairly lack lustre form coming in and seem to pop for a week. But trust the process, or just back Scheffler every start now haha
This week there is no respite, no major hangover. We have a signature event at Hilton Head for the RBC Heritage where all of the big dogs are playing (at the moment) and we have an adjacent event at Corales Punta Cana where the mules will fight it out.
Currently, Scheffler is $4.50 for Heritage while at Corales, Alex Noren heads a very even field of middle.of the roaders at around the $10 mark.
Comments
The most brutal lip out you will ever see to tie and force a playoff.
Update later but do yourself a favor and watch the closing 4 holes.
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Valspar at Innisbrook. The Copperhead Course. Ho.e.of the famed Snakepit.
Course history, approach and scrambling all important here.
I'm with the following for 20 units
Justin Thomas $17
Brian Harman $23
Doug Ghim $46
Mathew NeSmith $126
Best of luck!
We are in Texas the next two weeks. Scottie Schefflers home town. And he is playing the next two weeks. He might just win both and the Masters for good measure over the next 3 weeks.
He opens 3.50 favorite for the Houston Open. We haven't seen these odds since Tiger.
More soon
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I watched his whole round. He hit 11 greens in regulation all day. Without a bogey on the card he had 7/7 up and down from tricky spots, gained over 2 shots on the field on the greens alone all while having his worst approach round on some time. He finds his approach again well shit the door.
Sahith was disappointing, even though he had the tougher afternoon wave. He finished even, so 6 shots back, but he lost over 2.5 shots on the green, and missed a few easy birdie chances coming in. Hopefully that can turn around in round 2 which is about to get under way.
Scheffler is now 2.20. The opening 3.50 looks nice now but still 3 rounds to go.
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Scheffler is one of the 5, who was 4 back after two rounds where all the leaders faultered while he was steady as she goes, shooting 4 under with what was an interesting round. 8 birdies. 2 bogeys. A double. 7 pars. Not often you'll have 8 birdies and shoot 4 under. His double was a little unlucky, he stuffed it on the par 3 and then got an incredible amount of spin which put him back in the water.
Sahith had a -2 round and he unfortunately has struggled with putting this week. He has looked very frustrated/annoyed all week and he hasn't anywhere been near it, yet he sits 7 back.
One I have my eye on is Tom Hoge. Great ball striker and is going under the radar. He sits 4 back and has the potential to go very low on Sunday. He is $126 and I think this look like a good little price.
Also, Scheffler is now $2.54 favorite to win after being 3.50 pre tournament. Again, there is never a put in and take out scenario but let's be honest, it's pretty close to it here. He shares the lead with Skinns, Detry, Tosti and Jaeger. Not exactly behemoths in the golfing world.
I'm having 1 unit Hoge at $126 and another 5.5 units Scheffler at $2.54 to add to my other bets this week.
Brings this week to an even 20 units out.
Best of luck.
No collect last week again.
I'm away at the moment so no preview this week at Texas Valero
Rory heads a good field here leading into the Masters. I don't mind Horshal on face value this week with a strong showing last week. Players will be getting their reps in before Masters week next week.
Will have a decent preview early next week for The Masters.
BoL
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Round 1 in the books for Texas and it's Akshay Bhatia carding a 9 under 63 to lead by 3 shots from the rest. He was bogey free.
Surely he can't keep the pace.
So must have a bet.
Looking through the highlights and round 1 stats, I like 3 blokes at good prices. They are a fair way back but I'm counting the lead as 6 under right now.
Spieth $71/$15 top 5 - he sits at +1. It was the Spieth of all Spieth cards where he had 7 pars, 5 bogeys, a double bogey, 4 birdies and a hole in one for good measure! All for a 73. He is what he is and he is off early tonight and has the ability to have a 62 or an 82. I'm hoping the former and had 1 unit each way at the price.
Lucas Glover $51 - sits at -2 and 7 back, he started with 3 bogeys and then reeled off 4 birdies in a row on the back nine. He found something that side and hopefully it's enough to keep the momentum. Excellent ball striker and worth a play. 1 unit win.
Adam Svensson $51 - sits at -3. A very good round and has been showing up on leaderboards lately and is I nthe hunt here. The Canadian can keep it going and the price is right. 1 unit win.
Having a novelty play as well for interest. I reckon the leaderboard will be packed come Sunday and I reckon a playoff ensues. $5 for this to happen and I've got 3 units here.
Looking forward to sitting down in the next hour and watching the early groups. Best of luck.
The bad first
Adam Svensson shoots +3 to go back to Even. He makes the cut but forget him.
Glover had an even round and stays at -2. He was dreadfully unlucky with the putter with many looks but shaving the cup.
Spieth came.oit breathing fire. He was 3 under through 3 holes and was 4 under through 5 holes. He stabilized and stumbled at the turn with bogey/birdie/bogey and then had an absolute sloppy bogey on the last with a missed 3 footer. He sits at 3 under and is now 8 off the lead of Bhatia, who to his credit, bounced back after a very shakey start to post -11.
He is 5 ahead of the pack. I'll stand by my call of he can't keep it going, but he looks like he needs a couple of 70s on the weekend and he might be home.
Spieth is now $29 so will be cheering him for a Saturday 65 and then you never know.
He bogies the first two holes. Then he played the next 15 holes 4 under. Then he played what could be said to be the most obscure hole of the year, making double bogey on the last par 5, one of the easiest holes on the course.
He went wide. He played from a drain. He hit the ball intentionally on a roof. He 3 putted. Then went and signed autographs for an hour.
He could win the Masters next week.
He is 11 back, but now 4 shots out of 5th place. A birdie on 18 would have him T6. Alas his double dropped him back to T17th.
Looking forward to his 63 tonight.
I woke up with 3 holes to play. It was a great finish with both going blow for blow, Denny birdies the last 7 holes regulation and makes Bhatia have to nail an 11 footer to tie. He was as much as 6 in front with 9 holes to play till Denny went on a tear. The playoff ended when Denny finally stumbled and chunked a wedge into the water leaving Bhatia with a 2 putt only to win. He needed one and secured his second PGA tournament win and a birth in the Masters.
I salvaged something in the end with the playoff. 15 units jumps in the pot making it a +8 unit week
Update -172.21
This week +8
Overall -164.21 units.
Masters week has begun. Previews coming soon
Augusta National - 7555 yards
Reigning champion - Jon Rahm (-12)
Here it is. The biggest week on the golfing calender for the Mens professional game. 89 players will come down Magnolia Lane and tee it up in the 88th Masters. This year we see the shortest price favorite in many years, Scottie Scheffler.
Weve all seen the countless videos of highlights over the years, none more than from Greg Normans capitulation to Nick Faldo and of course, the most iconic of all, the Tiger chip in which essentially looked like an add for the Nike Swoosh, sitting on the cup and dropping in.
Well, who will win? As with all Majors, the field is stacked with quality and the cream always rises to the top. The Masters is a little different, in that its the only Major played at the same venue every year. Also, the field is reduced to 89 starters, making the cut top 50 and ties.
If you want an excellent preview elimianting players one by one to find an eventual winner, based on certain statistics and facts, the PGA Tour website offers this at the follwing
https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-dfs/2024/04/08/from-89-to-1-a-step-by-step-guide-to-identifying-the-masters-winner-eliminator-fantasy-golf-advice-tips-picks-augusta-national-scottie-scheffler
Long story short if you dont want to visit, they have narrowed the field to Xander Schauffele winning. Some very interesting facts to consider
In 44 years, no Masters debutant has won the Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Incidently, those who are superstitious would be thrilled to know when this happened, it was the LAST FULL SOLAR ECLIPSE. For those not in the know, we had a full solar eclipse yesterday, the first in 44 years....
The betting favorite has not won the Masters since 2005 TIGER. So goodbye Scheffler?
Plenty other of tidbits, but here are my thoughts and picks for this year.
Rankings out of 52 in brackets.
Course key statistics focus on tee to green (3), Par 5 scoring average (6) around the green (9) and driving distance (10).
Looking at Tee to Green, Scheffeler tops the list from Niemann, Rahm, Schauffele, Dechambeau and Matsuyama. Similaraly, an overall statistically adjusted fit gives the same output, while around the green metrics lean heavily to Matsuyama, justin Thomas, Scheffler and Schaufele.
If we apply a power ranking calculation to players including course and overall strokes gained metrics, a slightly different list of players bores out, with Overall weighted strokes gained measurements rank Scheffler in number one, followed closely by Schauffele, then Aberg, Matsuyama, Theegala and Wyndham Clarke. If we parse this out to Tee to Green only (the most highly ranked staistical measuremnt for this course), again, Scheffler is a top of the pile from Schauffele, Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim and Aberg.
If we limit the statistical measurements to the last 4 years and look at overall strokes gained, then I think we get the final picture. Will Zalatoris heads the list from Rahm, Theegala, Scheffler, Schaufele and Matsuyama, with individual metrics such as Tee to Green and Around the green throwing upo the usual suspects in Scheffler, Matsuyam, Spieth, Schauffele and Rahm.
Historically, players that rate well here are Rahm with top 10s every year outside one year (5/6), ofcourse Brooks Koepka who always plays well at Majors and is the current PGA Champion and one other that always plays well here is Patrick Reed.
Lastly, one nugget i found that stood out to me was that Jordan Spieth has the highest birdies per round average and largest differential to bogies per round, closley followed by Will Zalatoris.
What does it mean? Well looking at this data, its pretty clear that Scheffler is a notch above all comers. Unfortunately his price dictates that I am not headed in his direction, certainly pre tournament. If he has a decent number on Saturday night and is with 5 shots, i might have a crack. But not at the $5 pre tournament.
My picks in (best odds) order
Xander Schaufele ($17)
Hideki Matsuyama ($21)
Jordan Spieth ($23)
Jaoquin Niemann ($26)
Will Zalatoris ($41)
Im not going to go through each as to why, where and how. But I think there is a good mix of past champions, good form and statistically relevant information. At the above prices, the combined arbitrage is around the $3.70 mark which in my book is worthwhile.
Im putting in 30 units here officially for 141 unit return.
If punting 5 blokes is not for you, I would be playing Xander Schaufele one out using the Tabtouch money back + 10% special. You can have up to $200 on him at $16.40 with money back if he finishes 10 shots or better from the winner. Kudos to WA TAB for this promo, you wont find better i would think.
Lastly, if betting Tiger is your thing, the only bet to make is him to make the cut at even money ($2), which would be a suprise given the lack of golf he has played, HOWEVER, he has never missed the cut as a professional.
Officially though, 30 units out his week on the 5 blokes. Updates after every round and suggestions.
Best of Luck!
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The conditions were unbelievable. The scoring average was over 75.
There were elections left right and centre, none more than Justin Thomas, who was at Even par for the tournament with 4 holes to play. Even par was tied for 10th at the time. He played the last 4 holes 7 over, allowing the cut to move to +6 and letting in 11 guys, while simultaneously booting himself out of the tournament.
It's tied at the top with DeChambeau, Scottie and Homa all tied at -6. Only 14 blokes under par.
As mentioned, the cut was at +6. All my blokes made.it except Speith, who on resumption had a 9 on the par 5 15th and finished round 1 at +7. A +2 second round was actually gaining strokes on the field, but he was too far back in the conditions and missed.
My best bloke is Xander at a very respectable even par. Niemann and Zalatoris found the conditions very tough shooting +6 and +5 whole.Hodeki makes the cut on the number.
Anything can happen, but I'm praying Xander gets into contention.
Round 3 is about to get under way.
Scottie Scheffler wins the 2024 Masters by 4 shots, from a game Ludvig Aberg, with a further 3 shots back to Morikawa, Homa and Fleetwood.
It was game.on after 8 holes, with 4 players tied for the lead at 7 under.
Then the cream definitely rose to the top.
Morikawa, double bogey on holes 9 and 11. Water ball on 11 put paid to his chances.
Aberg, water ball also on 11, caused him to stumble. He was able to get those shots back in the end but it was a bridge too far.
Finally Homa, negotiated the hard 11th and then over shot the green on 12 and had to take unplayable, only to take double bogey as well.
All the while, Scheffler was just parring and birdieing away as he does. The inevitable was delayed by a hole.or two at 11 and 12, but with the par 5s coming his tournament was safe.
It was a demolition job in my opinion, seeing off all comers from the outset, nothing worries this bloke in the slightest. He continues on a historic year and he could actually win 8 times this season. Not seen since the likes of prime Tiger. The Masters is his 4th win of the season and since the mallet change, he has gone 4 starts for 3 wins and a very close second.
It's always easy after the fact, but 5.50 was available for Scheffler at the jump with a 10 shot money back buffer. Sometimes.you can't see the forest from the trees.
My out rights all failed, but Zalatoris showed some fight on Day 4, which puts him in a good position going forward for the season. Xander disappointed as usual, he was there at -2 and a couple.of early bogies destroyed his chances. He ended up at -1 for the tournament and those that actually read these previews hopefully we're smarter than me and took my advice of a one out single bullet with the 10 shot money back guarantee. He finished exactly 10 back.
Also, hopefully someone got on the even money Tiger to make the cut. A phenomenal effort and the weekend showed how much it took out of him, finishing +16 in the end and 27 shots from the winner. Unfortunate I think it's is time for the big cat to make arrangements for the Champions tour and get cart relief where he can. We want to see him win again but it ain't going to be on the big boy tour anymore. He has nothing to prove.
And with that, we capitulate again to -194 units for the season. It has been a rough one and in the last 3 years it has been positive at this point of the year. The fields have become more and more even with plenty of value to be had, it's just that the golfers that have been winning have had fairly lack lustre form coming in and seem to pop for a week. But trust the process, or just back Scheffler every start now haha
This week there is no respite, no major hangover. We have a signature event at Hilton Head for the RBC Heritage where all of the big dogs are playing (at the moment) and we have an adjacent event at Corales Punta Cana where the mules will fight it out.
Currently, Scheffler is $4.50 for Heritage while at Corales, Alex Noren heads a very even field of middle.of the roaders at around the $10 mark.
Thoughts and previews on both ASAP.