Looked at the leader board and statistics and I like Lucas Glover at $23 each way (5.40 the place top 5). He sits at -7 and is 5 off the lead, but the real lead is @ -10.
He was the best putter on day 1 and had uncharacteristically bad approach. I expect him to remedy this and keep the putter hot.
Glover is 7 shots back of Davis Thompson at -21. He is no chance...unless.he shoots at 60. He is $101 now.
Thompson has a 2 shots lead over Aaron Rai and Eric Cole going into round 4 tonight.
I like the way Eric Cole has been trending the last few weeks. With a spot in the Open Championship on the line, I like him to topple Thompson and get his first PGA Tour win.
Bomber how do you feel watching the run of the mill PGA events nowadays??
I was watching some replays this morning, granted i am only a casual observer and it was not a classic tournament being played in Detroit but there would have been lucky to be a handful of names that i knew.
It was still presented really well - i've caught a bit of live golf on random mornings and I find they dont actually show enough shots, possibly a product of not having the same size production team/limoted cameras but far too kuch standing around instead of cutting from group to group BUT it makes such a difference watching players you know.
Short and sweet again this week with multiple tournaments on all over the place
The main gig is the Scottish Open at the Rennaisance Club. Rory is defending after an unbeleivable last few holes win last year over Bob MacIntyre.
He returns after the beating he took at the US Open, so you could be getting anything. He is favorite at 7.50 and the only way i can suggest backing him is to have a short priced favorite to boost his odds. I have done that and am on him at around $17. This would be my suggestion.
Outside of him, its a very open event, with multiple form lines and the start of the links golf season.
Im going outside the box here.
Im backing Hideki Matsuyama at $31. Low key playing well and comes off a break. He is t one that jumps off the page with his links form but his short game is immaculate and I have a beit of a feeling this week.
5 units here at $31
Ive had a few same tournament multis for some interest and will flag them if they are any hope into the last round.
Less and less time I am finding at the moment. At least the golf coverage will be at a much friendlier time slot for the next few weeks!!
Bomber how do you feel watching the run of the mill PGA events nowadays??
I was watching some replays this morning, granted i am only a casual observer and it was not a classic tournament being played in Detroit but there would have been lucky to be a handful of names that i knew.
It was still presented really well - i've caught a bit of live golf on random mornings and I find they dont actually show enough shots, possibly a product of not having the same size production team/limoted cameras but far too kuch standing around instead of cutting from group to group BUT it makes such a difference watching players you know.
For me, the run of the mill events still offer me interest, as long as they are at a time that is watchable. Previous to last year, we in Australia were able to subscribe to the Golf Channel as well as KAYO for all the golf watching needs. Gold channel was excellent value at 9.99 per month and for me was the primary telecast I watched, simply because most tournaments started around 7pm WA time and the early group covereage started from the first tee off. I can watch anyone play really, as long as the coverage and commentary is good. Which it was.
Then Golf Channel ceased operating in Australian jusristiction and was not available anymore to subscribe to. Simultaneously, Kayo added featured group and hole coverage to their repetiore, however, the main feeds wouldnt start till the aftrenoon waves, which for me was very frustrating.
Come the shakeup of the PGA tour and the addition of Signature events etc, the model has taken away from the casual fan and started the sport down a pathway similar to tennis, in that there is multiple tours available but the Majors are the ones that most people will tune into. The PGA tour Signature events have become a little monotonous it has to be said, mainly for reasons of reduced fields and no cut events, all the issues that wrre pointed at the LIV tour. These exclusive signature events have the same fields every week because they are based on the FEDEX cup points system and also wins from previous seasons for exemption. Hence there is no massive field changes week to week. And hence why they have been dominated of late by Scheffler.
I liked the Signature events early on. The best players on the PGA Tour and the winners were competing against each other and it gave a feel of a meritocritus competition. Now though, same field, different course doesnt really cut it. Yes, the better, more well known players are competing which gives gravitas to the casual fan who wants to see the names play. Unfortunately though, the "mules" now get a reduced chance to compete in these alternate events, coupled with obscure qualification rules, Monday qualifiers and also the rise of the amatuer and college players. These young guns come out of college (or are still in college) complete, well rounded professionals, put through a development system that makes it hard for older, more seasoned PGA Tour players to compete with. This isnt a bad thing, but it does then lend itself toward large fields will relatively unknown players. Unless you follow the Korn Ferry tour or are into the golf collegiate system, these guys literally come out of nowhere.
Im in a bit of limbo with being able to allocate time to watching tournaments and if i am going to sit and enjoy the coverage, it better be good. Last weeks John Deere I quite enjoyed, moreso than the Travellers the week beforehand. The ealry main feed was covered and was headed by commentary by Johnathan Coachman (aka The Coach) whom i enjoy listening to, along with his co hosts.
You get the no names but you get increased shots shown with these alternate field events. What you also get is the storylines for the guys that a grinding hard to get a win and change their life. i like that aspect seeing the emotion. Something you get a lot of on the Euro tour.
In terms of advertisments, we are lucky in Australia as we seem to miss alot of the ads that poison the coverage, mainly from pharmaceutical companies.
LIV this week will also be easier to watch as it is in Spain at Valderamma. Because of this friendly timeslot ill definately be tuning in and the coverage is growing on me, if you can ignore the faux hype regarding its historical significance. They do a good job of showing plenty of action and household names, which to be fair is what they have done to capture the dwindling PGA tour audience, who want good coverage and plenty of action.
As said above, the game will ultimately in my opinion mimic the tennis in that nobody really cares about anything but the majors. Everyone loves the majors more and more now becuase everyone is competing against eachother instead of the fractured sport at the "lower tiers. Good for the majors, but this spells bad news for all the tours (except LIV) who rely on corporate funding for sponsorship. If there are no eyes on the product, corporate sponsorship dwindles and the tours die a slow death.
Hideki finished +1, which is terrible but actually not bad given the way he was playing. He looked completely uncomfortable and lost out there, not sure what was going on. He'll need a 65 today to make the cut with scoring being pretty low. That, or good morning conditions and then a significant weather change for the afternoon waves.
Justin Thomas leads all comers with an 8 under 62. He was the exact opposite, very comfortable and in his element. A big surprise given his recent form, especially in the UK.
Rory is lurking 3 shots back. To the front nine to get going and then came home in 31 to sit at -5.
Aberg could easily have shot 8 under. He hit an approach straight over the flagstick that would have been a great birdie chance except for the fact it landed on his fellow competitor's ball and shot off into the rough leading to a bogey.
You can put your life on Hideki next week at the Open.
I've never seen a worse putting performance from him. Today alone he missed at least 3 putts under 3 foot. His 1 foot miss for bogey on hole 2 (his 11th hole) will make him miss the cut. Absolutely sickening
If he is statistically in the top 100 this week in putting I will be very surprised.
Yes, definately a lucky break for McIntyre, which he has copped alot of mixed reactions online.
At the end of the day, he has played within the rules. The calls of "Cheat" are childish, at best.
Not to mention he has hit a most incredible shot to set up that eagle. Then he birdies the last with a bomb of a putt. Scott had his chances as well on the last with a 14 footer to get in on the winning score.
Anyway, we move on to this weeks Open Championship at Royal Troon.
Last time they were here, it was an absolute two horse war between Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickleson, who cleared out from the field entirely. In the end, Stenson prevailed.
The course is famous for its Postage Stamp hole. Also, hole 11 this year is expected to be the toughest hole the players will face on the PGA Tour schedule this season.
Its a tale of two very different 9 holes.
The front nine is "easy" and it wouldn't be unexpected to see someone post an early low 9 holes round of 4 or 5 under. But come the second nine, this is where it changes dramatically.
On the front side, there ar no par 4 holes more than 440 yards. For these blokes, its driver and gap wedge all day. Point and shoot so to speak.
On the back, all the par 4s are over 440yards and there is a monster par 5 of 623 yards to deal with. More long irons and accuracy required on this side and if you can play the back nine in even par or better you are gaining strokes on the field.
So who is going to win?
The usual suspects up on top dominate the market, with Scheffler as low as $5 in some places, followed by Rory at $8.50.
Scheffler hasnt been seen for 3 weeks and comes in fresh off a spell here. This shouldnt be an issue for the world number 1. One does not forget how to play golf. He has the complete game and throroughly deserves favoritism. He has the long and short game which are both required here in spades. Ill go out on a limb and say that you can garauntee a top 5 finish.
Rory, we know what we will get. We'll get 54 good holes and 18 mediocre hole. Thats the normal these days. Last week at the Scottish Open, he had his chance and just could not get it going all day on Sunday, after a lack lustre back nine on the saturday as well. If you like him this week, have a crack at the first round leader market with him. Thats about where it is at for me with him.
As with any major, there is quality everywhere and hence some value.
Here are my pre tournamnet plays this week. Playing 10 units across 6 golfers at the following prices for a 171.4 unit return
Hideki Matsuyama $51
Adam Scott $56
Davis Thompson $101
JT Poston $201
Chris Kirk $251
Marcel Siem $501
I have put in 3 good chances and 3 whale bomb chances, for interest.
Hideki just needed the putter to work last week. Outside of that, he was hitting the ball well. i am very willing to go again at hime and expect a much biggeri improvement this week.
Scott was unlucky not to be in a playoff last week, if not win. I think he can keep it going, especially with his around the green game which is a must around here. He is still very long off the tee and his swing lends itself to elite iron play.
Davis Thompson was in it a long way last week. He had a few bumps in the road on Saturday and sunday, but essentially, he is coming off a dominant win in the US and handled himself well last week, leading early on for 36 holes. Definitely an each way hope for this future major winner.
JT Poston hasnt been too bad at all this year, recently though has been a little out of sorts. This price is about 3 times more than i expected to see for him and had to have a sheckle or two on at the $200+. Similar with Chris Kirk, the price is crazy for the Sentry winner. He can score quickly and regularly but also has the calm demeanor to deal with adversity this course will throw at them.
Lastly, my old mate Marcel, again, $501 is a silly price for the Italian open winner 2 starts ago. He made the weekend last week and is not with a hope. An each way play at worst.
Hopefully we get a few through to the weekend and the smart money is to assess after each round and look for statistically good golfers who havent scored as well as expected and find the value.
with 10 alive this week, sitting at -104.5 units currently. Time is running out and the annual streak of 3 positive years is coming close to an end !
Geez I was going to have a crack at Aaron Rai for top 10 top 20 but the price has gone off. Was $4 for top 20 early in the week but the best i can find now is $2.50.
I've had a play at draft stars for sh!+$ and giggles so see how I go.
Rd 1 done and dusted and it's Shane Lowry on top at -6 with Dan Brown. Who you say?
Brown plays on the DP world tour and really hasn't done much this season. He qualified for the Open through the qualifying events. At 200+ in the world it was a surprise to see his name at the top.
These guys are 3 clear of Justin Thomas, who did well to post this score, with early indications showing that the PM/AM will have the advantage. He will tee off this afternoon and will have last week firmly in the back of his mind, where he lead after 18 holes and finished 62nd.
Lots of big names out of it
Rory +7 Fleetwood +5 Bryson +5 Sahith +4 Aberg +4
They will have to pull something special out of the bag to make the cut.
My blokes are pretty cooked, the best are Adam Scott and Chris Kirk, both in the AM/PM wave, will find the conditions tough this afternoon. Praying they can keep it together.
Scheffler finished at -1 and remains favorite still. With good reason, he made absolutely nothing but completely dominated the ball striking and tee to green categories. Alot of the leaders made absolutely crazy amounts of putts, which is unsustainable.
If diving in now, Scottie, while $5 is a good one out bet
If higher odds are more your thing, both Brooks Koepka (-1/$17) and Adam Scott (-1/$29) should give you a run your money.
Is it just me or is the coverage incredibly frustrating. I would have watched on and off for about 3 hours last night, 30 plus groups of 3 on the course and i would have been lucky if i saw double figure players hit a shot.
Same players over and over.
Jason Day put together a 3 under round while i was watching, didnt see one shot of it.
I did however see every one of Tigers many many shots.
Also watched a lot of vision of him and the select handful of others just walking or standing around. I dont mind a bit of pre shot banter if you can get in to hear them but when they are just waiting for a green to clear go to someone who is actually hitting the thing!
Is it just me or is the coverage incredibly frustrating. I would have watched on and off for about 3 hours last night, 30 plus groups of 3 on the course and i would have been lucky if i saw double figure players hit a shot.
Same players over and over.
Jason Day put together a 3 under round while i was watching, didnt see one shot of it.
I did however see every one of Tigers many many shots.
Also watched a lot of vision of him and the select handful of others just walking or standing around. I dont mind a bit of pre shot banter if you can get in to hear them but when they are just waiting for a green to clear go to someone who is actually hitting the thing!
Agree
Moving away from a sports coverage to a magazine style. No issue with some coverage of Tiger but way over the top for someone 10 over or more.
The 4th, and best major is done and dusted and has been won by Xander Schauffele, who played one of the finest rounds of golf you will see in the final round of a major championship.
Conditions, as expected, were not easy. Rahm and a host of others came out breathing fore, particularly Rahm who birdied 4 of his first 5 holes and got to -3, only 2 off the lead. But as most people experienced, the back nine slowed them right down.
Adam Scott birdies the first hole and I thought here we go. He was 3 off the lead but then proceeded to play par golf. He was semi still in it after 9 holes, bit a sloppy double bogey on 10 ruined his changes from there on.
Of the final groups, it was Justin Rose and Thriston Lawrence who were pouring the pressure on the final paring of Horshal and Brown. Brown capitulated early and was out of it come the run, while Horshal was well and truly in the mix. Lawrence lead by 2 shots from Xander, Horshal and Rose.
And then the killer X did his thing.
The back nine on Sunday alone was playing 3 shots over par. Yes, that is correct. It was hard.
Xander makes the only birdie of the day on 11, which in itself gained about 2 shots on the field alone. He birdies 13-14-16 and makes tap in pars for the rest of the holes to shot a closing 32 and gained over 7 shots to the field. Amazing stuff.
Rose was brave in defeat. He shot 67 for the day and of you told him that at the start of Sunday play he would take that and think it would have been enough. Similar to Horshal, who shot 68. They both finished on -7, 2 shots back.
Xander wins his second major of the year and of his career, defining stuff for him whom was thought to be a non closer of majors. Je finished 8th-1st-7th-1st in the four majors this year. In the majors, 2 x top 10s and 2 majors wins in a season has only been done by the greats, Nicklaus, Player, Sneed, Palmer, Tiger and Spieth. He now goes to the Olympics to defend his title and then to a FedEx cup where he is known as the king of Eastlake. It will be him and Scheffler fighting it out in the next 6 weeks or so.
No luck for me on the betting front. It was a nice tournament for Scott finishing Even par for the championship and a top 10, which gets him an invite back next year. The rest all went backwards.
YTD -104.5 UNITS
Back soon for the preview of the 3M open which starts Thursday.
Extra bonus this week if you like you American events. In the Barracuda "mule" event, there are two I like to go well this week
Patrick Rodgers $26
Neil Shiply $36
Have a crack at both for 5 units and around 75 units return
Good luck!
In the opposite field event, it was a close call. Patrick Rodgers charged home on Sunday the miss but 5 points in the modified stableford competition. A birdie on the last would have made him clubhouse leader, but alas it was a bogey and Nick Dunlap eagles the 15th to sew up his second win of the season and his career. Not bad since turning pro only earlier this season minus 5 more units here. .
Comments
As @Rodent says, you couldn't have drawn it up any worse for my bets.
Akshay misses a 4 footer for the playoff. And the potential wire to wire winner.
Min Woo was charging, but doubles the par 5!
Anyway, no cigar again this week. We March on
Hopefully Min Woo goes to the John Deere this week. Love to see him win his first PGA tour event.
I'll have some thoughts after round 1 of the John Deere.
I like JT Poston this week in my worldwide one and some competition. See how he fairs.
Scoring should be ultra low this week. More soon!
He was the best putter on day 1 and had uncharacteristically bad approach. I expect him to remedy this and keep the putter hot.
2.5 units each way here.
Thompson has a 2 shots lead over Aaron Rai and Eric Cole going into round 4 tonight.
I like the way Eric Cole has been trending the last few weeks. With a spot in the Open Championship on the line, I like him to topple Thompson and get his first PGA Tour win.
5 units at $6.
Good luck!
I was watching some replays this morning, granted i am only a casual observer and it was not a classic tournament being played in Detroit but there would have been lucky to be a handful of names that i knew.
It was still presented really well - i've caught a bit of live golf on random mornings and I find they dont actually show enough shots, possibly a product of not having the same size production team/limoted cameras but far too kuch standing around instead of cutting from group to group BUT it makes such a difference watching players you know.
Rodent likes this post.
Gilgamesh likes this post.
Gilgamesh likes this post.
Justin Thomas leads all comers with an 8 under 62. He was the exact opposite, very comfortable and in his element. A big surprise given his recent form, especially in the UK.
Rory is lurking 3 shots back. To the front nine to get going and then came home in 31 to sit at -5.
H-BOMBER, Gilgamesh likes this post.
I've never seen a worse putting performance from him. Today alone he missed at least 3 putts under 3 foot. His 1 foot miss for bogey on hole 2 (his 11th hole) will make him miss the cut. Absolutely sickening
If he is statistically in the top 100 this week in putting I will be very surprised.
H-BOMBER likes this post.
Gilgamesh likes this post.
I've had a play at draft stars for sh!+$ and giggles so see how I go.
Rai
Min Woo
Bryson
Hideki
Zach Johnson.
H-BOMBER likes this post.
Scott
Morikawa
Matsuyama
Thompson
Siem
Bryson
Bryson currently +5!
Brown plays on the DP world tour and really hasn't done much this season. He qualified for the Open through the qualifying events. At 200+ in the world it was a surprise to see his name at the top.
These guys are 3 clear of Justin Thomas, who did well to post this score, with early indications showing that the PM/AM will have the advantage. He will tee off this afternoon and will have last week firmly in the back of his mind, where he lead after 18 holes and finished 62nd.
Lots of big names out of it
Rory +7
Fleetwood +5
Bryson +5
Sahith +4
Aberg +4
They will have to pull something special out of the bag to make the cut.
My blokes are pretty cooked, the best are Adam Scott and Chris Kirk, both in the AM/PM wave, will find the conditions tough this afternoon. Praying they can keep it together.
Scheffler finished at -1 and remains favorite still. With good reason, he made absolutely nothing but completely dominated the ball striking and tee to green categories. Alot of the leaders made absolutely crazy amounts of putts, which is unsustainable.
If diving in now, Scottie, while $5 is a good one out bet
If higher odds are more your thing, both Brooks Koepka (-1/$17) and Adam Scott (-1/$29) should give you a run your money.
Action for round 2 starts shortly
H-BOMBER likes this post.
Unfortunately he has dropped 4 shots in the next 7 holes.
Cut looks like it will go to +5 at this stage.
Same players over and over.
Jason Day put together a 3 under round while i was watching, didnt see one shot of it.
I did however see every one of Tigers many many shots.
Also watched a lot of vision of him and the select handful of others just walking or standing around. I dont mind a bit of pre shot banter if you can get in to hear them but when they are just waiting for a green to clear go to someone who is actually hitting the thing!
Gilgamesh likes this post.
Lowry let them all back in yesterday. After he got to -8, he proceeded to drop 7 shots coming in.
Leader.is at -4 Billy Horshal, from a group of players at -3.
I have two sweats tonight. Best os Adam Scott at Even par and 4 behind the leader and $250-1 shot Chris Kirk who is at +2 and just teed off.
Will be a ripping 5-6 hours coming up. Cheering home another Aussie in the Open in Scott. Hopefully he gets off to a hot start
Conditions, as expected, were not easy. Rahm and a host of others came out breathing fore, particularly Rahm who birdied 4 of his first 5 holes and got to -3, only 2 off the lead. But as most people experienced, the back nine slowed them right down.
Adam Scott birdies the first hole and I thought here we go. He was 3 off the lead but then proceeded to play par golf. He was semi still in it after 9 holes, bit a sloppy double bogey on 10 ruined his changes from there on.
Of the final groups, it was Justin Rose and Thriston Lawrence who were pouring the pressure on the final paring of Horshal and Brown. Brown capitulated early and was out of it come the run, while Horshal was well and truly in the mix. Lawrence lead by 2 shots from Xander, Horshal and Rose.
And then the killer X did his thing.
The back nine on Sunday alone was playing 3 shots over par. Yes, that is correct. It was hard.
Xander makes the only birdie of the day on 11, which in itself gained about 2 shots on the field alone. He birdies 13-14-16 and makes tap in pars for the rest of the holes to shot a closing 32 and gained over 7 shots to the field. Amazing stuff.
Rose was brave in defeat. He shot 67 for the day and of you told him that at the start of Sunday play he would take that and think it would have been enough. Similar to Horshal, who shot 68. They both finished on -7, 2 shots back.
Xander wins his second major of the year and of his career, defining stuff for him whom was thought to be a non closer of majors. Je finished 8th-1st-7th-1st in the four majors this year. In the majors, 2 x top 10s and 2 majors wins in a season has only been done by the greats, Nicklaus, Player, Sneed, Palmer, Tiger and Spieth. He now goes to the Olympics to defend his title and then to a FedEx cup where he is known as the king of Eastlake. It will be him and Scheffler fighting it out in the next 6 weeks or so.
No luck for me on the betting front. It was a nice tournament for Scott finishing Even par for the championship and a top 10, which gets him an invite back next year. The rest all went backwards.
YTD -104.5 UNITS
Back soon for the preview of the 3M open which starts Thursday.
Gilgamesh likes this post.
In the opposite field event, it was a close call. Patrick Rodgers charged home on Sunday the miss but 5 points in the modified stableford competition. A birdie on the last would have made him clubhouse leader, but alas it was a bogey and Nick Dunlap eagles the 15th to sew up his second win of the season and his career. Not bad since turning pro only earlier this season minus 5 more units here. .
-109.5 units
I'm in Bali with the fam and have just discovered golf TV channel - want to lut a draft stars team together.
3M Open on and have had something on Rico Hoey for the tournament at $81.
Had 1.5 units here.
Also had 0.5 at $71 for First round leader
2 units out this week so far
Gilgamesh likes this post.
Horshal
Davis
Lashley
Wallace
Knapp
Hoey
Finau
Silverman
Rodgers
Van Rooyen
Lawrence
Higgo
Gilgamesh likes this post.