Melbourne Cup 2023East Coast Racing

SLIPPERGOLDEN

Racing Post's Robbie Wilders early selection and assessment of O'Brien's entries. Tower Of London Lexus Melbourne Cup Flemington, November 7 1pt each-way at 16-1 with bet365, 12-1 generally....As at 20/09/23

If there was a horse to take out of Saturday’s St Leger with the rest of the season in mind, aside from impressive winner Continuous, I suspect it is the keeping-on fourth Tower Of London.   The brother to former St Leger winner Capri was off my radar for the Doncaster Classic due to the soft ground as the family all prefer it fast, and his previous two efforts on a slow surface resulted in two disappointing efforts relative to market expectations.   However, this was a promising display on his return from 65 days off after his unlucky second in the Bahrain Trophy when Ryan Moore dropped his whip, and he looks an ideal type for the Melbourne Cup. The 16-1 about him for the Flemington showpiece in November is worth taking now each-way for four places at a quarter of the odds.   Tower Of London is one of five O’Brien-trained entries for the Melbourne Cup and I make him by far the likeliest contender of that group in a race the yard is desperate to win for the first time. Broome is a candidate to make the trip to Australia but appears to be regressing as a seven-year-old, while three-year-olds Alexandrapoulis and Denmark are rated too low to get a run and Greenland, another youngster, has stamina to prove as he is yet to race over further than 1m4f.   The ground at Flemington is likely to be much more to Tower Of London’s liking and O’Brien has been knocking on the door in this race, with the last three three-year-olds he has saddled (Tiger Moth, Il Paradiso and Rostropovich) finishing second, third and fifth from 2018-2020.   It is easy to imagine this son of Galileo going off close to favourite if getting the nod to run. He has proven his stamina for marathon trips, keeps progressing and is clearly Group 1 class.

PC

Future History wins the G3 The Bart Cummings and wins a ticket into the Melbourne Cup. Future History will be liable for a weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup at the discretion of the handicapper.

The Bart Cummings/Melbourne Cup Double

2016: Almandin

2000: Brew

1970: Baghdad Note

Melbourne Cup Winners to Run in the Bart Cummings Since 1970

1989: Tawriffic
3rd: The Bart Cummings
1st: Melbourne Cup

1985: What A Nuisance
2nd: The Bart Cummings
1st: Melbourne Cup

1972: Piping Lane
4th: The Bart Cummings
1st: Melbourne Cup

Other Information

2022: High Emocean
6th in the Bart Cummings
3rd in the Melbourne Cup

2014: Who Shot TheBarman
1st: The Bart Cummings
3rd: Melbourne Cup

1983: Mr Jazz
1st: The Bart Cummings
3rd: Melbourne Cup

Race Name Changes

2004 - 2022: The Bart Cummings
2001 - 2003: Banjo Paterson
1994 & 2000: Japan Trophy
1999: VRC Membership Quality
1966 - 1987 & 1989 - 1992 & 1995 - 1998: Navy Day Handicap
1993: Queen's Cup
1988: Seoul Olympics Handicap
1965: Lord Mayor's Plate

Thunderstruck

Gold Trip just now was ENORMOUS wowee.
Caulfield Cup absolutely at his mercy if they go there.
Might go to the CP and still smash them all there too?

thefalcon

all hinges on the handicapper..i reckon, miss the cc and go for the cox and then the mc.

PC

Turnbull Stakes/Caulfield Cup Double

2021: Incentivise
2020: Verry Elleegant
2004: Elvstroem
2002: Northerly
1999: Sky Heights
1991: Let's Elope
1975: Analight
1974: Leilani
1963: Sometime
1954: Rising Fast

Turnbull Stakes/Cox Plate Double

2018: Winx
2017: Winx
2005: Makybe Diva
2002: Northerly
1993: The Phantom Chance
1990: Better Loosen Up
1979: Dulcify
1966: Tobin Bronze
1964: Sir Dane
1962: Aquanita
1954: Rising Fast

Turnbull Stakes/Melbourne Cup Double

2012: Green Moon
2005: Makybe Diva
1991: Let's Elope
1954: Rising Fast
1950: Comic Court

Caulfield Cup Winners who ran in Turnbull Stakes - Since 1990

2021: Incentivise - 1st
2020: Verry Elleegant - 1st
2016: Jameka - 2nd
2013: Fawkner - 3rd
2011: Southern Speed - 4th
2010: Descarado - 14th
2009: Viewed - 7th
2004: Elvstroem - 1st
2002: Northerly - 1st
2000: Diatribe - 3rd
1999: Sky Heights - 1st
1995: Doriemus - 2nd
1991: Let's Elope - 1st

Cox Plate Winners who ran in Turnbull Stakes - Since 1990

2018: Winx - 1st
2017: Winx - 1st
2008: Maldivian - 6th
2007: El Segundo - 6th
2005: Makybe Diva - 1st
2002: Northerly - 1st
2000: Sunline - 2nd
1993: The Phantom Chance - 1st
1990: Better Loosen Up - 1st

Melbourne Cup Winners who ran in Turnbull Stakes - Since 1990

2022: Gold Trip - 5th
2021: Verry Elleegant - 4th
2019: Vow And Declare - 4th
2013: Fiorente - 4th
2012: Green Moon - 1st
2007: Efficient - 11th
2005: Makybe Diva - 1st
2004: Makybe Diva - 7th
2003: Makybe Diva - 4th
1995: Doreimus - 2nd
1991: Let's Elope - 1st

PC

thefalcon said:

all hinges on the handicapper..i reckon, miss the cc and go for the cox and then the mc.

As the Turnbull Stakes is a Set Weights Plus Penalties race, the winner (Gold Trip) can not be given a weight penalty for the Caulfield Cup or Melbourne Cup.

Gilgamesh

Im on Gold Trip for Cox and am not happy with all this Caulfield Cup talk

Thunderstruck

Gilgamesh said:

Im on Gold Trip for Cox and am not happy with all this Caulfield Cup talk

So is Mark Zahra lol he is committed to Without A Fight.

Have to wait and see but with 58.5 he wins it if he goes that way imo..and by a space if it's wet.

Gilgamesh

Praying for 30 degree days and sunshine for 2 weeks then a week of rain!

Thunderstruck

Weather is so shit there lol barely a day over 17 next week and it's what nearly 6 weeks into spring ..

Sting out and I'm loading up on him, wfa or handicap idgaf which.

thefalcon

don't get too carried away, thunder. grab a carlton dry and have a good long think.

did you cop the run of the pommie horse?

Thunderstruck

I did mate, but if it doesn't get an Aussie jock on(p.s it wont)he will balls it up again somehow :D
*Spencer rode Gold Trip in the Cox last year and didn't exactly give it a peach if I recall correctly.

I'm bullish as can be, this horse does his best work in spring and that win was absolutely exceptional imo, so be it Cox Plate or CC i think Gold Trip can win either.
Idk if they would try for both as weather/track conditions will play a part..and it might be too much with the MC a target again as well.
I'll bet with a good deal of confidence especially if it's a nice soft deck.

PC

Past 40 Years - Trainers to Win Multiple Melbourne Cups

5 - Bart Cummings
5 - Lee Freedman
2 - Joseph O'Brien
2 - Dermot Weld

PC

No penalty, will remain on 50kg for the Cup

https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/news/2023-10-09/future-history-melbourne-cup-penalty-decision

thefalcon

thanks for all the work you put in PC..... =D>

Thunderstruck

What do you think of its chances PC?
I Always respect the trainer but not their top seed I don't think.Being way down in the weights is to advantage.

PC

Thunderstruck said:

What do you think of its chances PC?
I Always respect the trainer but not their top seed I don't think.Being way down in the weights is to advantage.

Usually Melbourne Cup winners who have been down in the weights have been good.

Future History didn't win by much and that's why the handicapper decided not to give him a weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup - he will stay on 50kg. The handicapper also said that Future History will have to go to another level to win the Melbourne Cup. Will that happen, I'm not sure.

Maybe one for the exotic bets like trifectas and quartets. I'm not sure how strong The Bart Cummings will be in terms of form heading to the Melbourne Cup.

Only three horses have done the Bart Cummings - Melbourne Cup Double:

2016 - Almandin
2000 - Brew
1970 - Baghdad Note

PC

New rule in regards to Caulfield Cup winners carrying 56kg or more. New rule introduced either last year or year before (2021). Basically if a horse carrying 56kg or more wins the Caulfield Cup, then they won't recieve a weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup.

For your information.

https://www.breednet.com.au/news/1270/racing-victoria-changes-melbourne-cup-penalty-rules-for-caulfield-cup-winner

PC

Sorry I'll say it again as I misread it.

If a Caulfield Cup winner has Melbourne Cup Weight of 56kg or more than they won't recieve a weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup.

Thunderstruck

Yeh so when Gold Trip wins it, no penalty for the MC :D

PC

Yep that's right.

DamienWyer

When was the last time a horse won their two lead up races to a Melbourne Cup ? I haven't taken an interest in Melbourne Cups for years, so I don't know if it has happened in recent years, but it was never the case that a horse would dominate a carnival and go on to win the main event. 

Makybe Diva?

Thunderstruck

None spring to mind immediately Damien but Incentivise went very close and Verry Elleegant went close-ish the year before(was impossibly positioned to win in that fast run Cup of 2020).

What is noticeable lately is a few recent winners of the MC are doing so with bigger weights and still winning quite comfortably.

Idk if GT can actually win the two big handicaps(or a Cox Plate and a Cup)but I don't think the allotted weight will affect him too much.

SLIPPERGOLDEN

Tower of London not running but I think Harbour Wind is a great overseas entry trained by D Weld if it starts but currently looks doubtful. Another choice is the Japanese entry Breakup and it should start and can win.

PC

DamienWyer said:

When was the last time a horse won their two lead up races to a Melbourne Cup ? I haven't taken an interest in Melbourne Cups for years, so I don't know if it has happened in recent years, but it was never the case that a horse would dominate a carnival and go on to win the main event. 

Makybe Diva?

Rogan Josh won twice in campaign before Cup win. So did Brew - did the same. Makybe Diva comes to mind as well - won Turnbull and Cox Plate.

I'd have to go through and check previous winners and see how many races they won in Cup campaign before winning Cup.

PC

Thunderstruck said:

None spring to mind immediately Damien but Incentivise went very close and Verry Elleegant went close-ish the year before(was impossibly positioned to win in that fast run Cup of 2020).

What is noticeable lately is a few recent winners of the MC are doing so with bigger weights and still winning quite comfortably.

Idk if GT can actually win the two big handicaps(or a Cox Plate and a Cup)but I don't think the allotted weight will affect him too much.

I actually think the depth has been weak in terms of light weight hordes in the Cup. It means horses towards the top of the weights or top of the weights are running well

PC

A weight penalty of 0.5kg for Military Mission for the Melbourne Cup - now has 51kg.
https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/news/2023-10-16/military-mission-receives-lexus-melbourne-cup-penalty

Gilgamesh

I see theyve stated Gold Trip to Caulfield Cup. Surely does all 3 again then. SURELY!!!

Thunderstruck

Only seen the headline in one place Punters and it's a subscription deal(they can pierce off)stating that GT may not contest the MC

Reckon their bullish as hell re the other two features, I do note he has to give that Turnbull runner up another 2 kegs this Sat.
Wonder who will ride him I saw that Blake Shinn was available, few other good jocks as well.

tony

Hugh Bowman riding him in the Caulfield Cup.

savethegame

Gold Trip wouldn't surprise what they attempt two years ago was inspected by six veterinarians who were unanimous in saying he was lame. They took him to Sydney in protest as if was going to start the following week, but he didn't race for another 10 months after the 21 cox plate drama. Now the farrier has stated two weeks ago his finally happy with his feet.Bowman in the box seat for the ride in Caulfield Cup.