WA Harness Handicapping ProposalHarness & Greyhounds

aussiebattler

At Racing WA, we’re making a focused effort to create more competitive racing, improve racing opportunities and consequentially increase wagering turnover on WA harness racing.

Over the past two months or so, our new dynamic approach to race programming has seen increased field sizes and consistent 10-race programs at Gloucester Park on Friday evenings.

While this has been a fantastic result and led to a spike in turnover, it’s important we continue to innovate to improve and optimise the product and subsequently attract further wagering.

That’s why Racing WA is proposing we embrace the national ratings handicapping system starting from January 1, 2025.

The Dumesny Report has highlighted the shortcomings of our current handicapping system, especially in comparison to the national standards. The national ratings system proved its effectiveness since its inception, and in 2023:

• Only 6.75% of races featured favorites priced at $1.30 or worse, compared to 17.49% in WA.
• Similarly, 18.35% of races had favorites priced up to $1.60, as opposed to 35.8% in WA.
• And 31.8% of races featured favorites priced up to $1.90, while in WA, this figure stood at 53.9%.

Utilising the national ratings system is projected to lead to a significant reduction in short-priced favorites in WA, ultimately driving higher turnover.

It also offers us the opportunity for a complete programming reset as we work towards improving the manner in which we program to the population, to seasonality, to differing levels of ability and to juveniles.

To ensure a smooth transition and to gather valuable insights from all stakeholders, I – with the support of the team at Racing WA – will conduct handicapping and programming consultation sessions.

The dates for these sessions will be announced shortly, however, I encourage your active participation and involvement.

One crucial aspect that we'll address in these discussions is juvenile programming, particularly focusing on developing a comprehensive calendar for our two-year-old horses.

It's imperative we nurture young talent and provide them with the best platform to showcase the top-quality standardbreds we have on offer in WA.

I’d like to emphasise the adoption of the national ratings system will maintain a 'net-neutral' impact. Racing WA is committed to working with Harness Racing Australia and other states to ensure the fair distribution of ratings points.

I look forward to your support and discussing this with you further at the upcoming sessions.

Cameron Brown

Racing WA Head of Harness and Special Projects

aussiebattler

One thing worth Noting is that WA points were Locked so no horse dropped below 50 I think they will need to review that when it comes to transitioning to the NR 

Gilgamesh

I hope it is a positive step for them, one of many lets go for.

Betonme

Love it or hate it, think this was just a matter of time...

Out of interest, where is the Dumesny report published? Or is it only for RWWA, and not shown to stakeholders?

aussiebattler

Errors evident in the system even now and you still have horses below 50 points racing in WA while others have been locked. 

171 -12-12-5

$78,222

NR42 L10 

Best Wining MR 1:56.6 

Chopchop43

I mean Cam Brown, the current general manager I believe it is, did help create the NR system over there so was always a chance of happening, but if you talk to the people in the eastern states they hate the NR system as much as we hate the HWOE system over there so I don't know if this is necessarily going to be a good thing

Chariotsonfire

Trotting people have always hated change as much as they hate things staying the same.

Markovina

Well you can only wait to see what happens re after they bring in the NR to WA , like they say the proof in the pudding is in the eating 

Personally i think it will  be minimal affect re the City class horses at GP on a Frid night  - where the track bias is everything , where a horse drawn gate 1 is thus  $1.40 - same horse draws gate 9 it is $25- so i just think the very short price favourites - (and alot of them are only that short because they have gate 1 ) will continue saluting 

And if that is the occurence , Cam will go to Michael Radley and say look mate - ive cranked my brain into 1st gear , and handicapping isnt the major problem for the saturation of odds on fave at GP , its the biased screaming leaders 800 metre track with rattshit cambering 

Then it will be very interesting what Cam says next 

lick

Gee - only 5 odds on favourites tonight (on fixed odds).

getthechange

Chopchop43 said:

I mean Cam Brown, the current general manager I believe it is, did help create the NR system over there so was always a chance of happening, but if you talk to the people in the eastern states they hate the NR system as much as we hate the HWOE system over there so I don't know if this is necessarily going to be a good thing

concerning indeed - NR handicapping - see attachment

JayJay

Tri Royale Brigade LTE $144k, 10 wins, Level 11...starting in a L5$LT$4k community race on Tuesday.

getthechange

JayJay said:

Tri Royale Brigade LTE $144k, 10 wins, Level 11...starting in a L5$LT$4k community race on Tuesday.

L5$LT $4k is lowest race he can get into in WA

last 8 starts in this type race for two 3rds 

 not eligible for levels 1 - 10 in HWOE races 

will always be a higher level than non winners 

will always be higher than level 10 horses

will always be higher than a horse having its first start

currently the above applies but when NR comes in

he can drop to 30 and be 20 points below a first starter

NR makes HWOE drop backs look mild

you have bagged the WA system relentlessly for drop backs on steroids which was justified in some parts but now you are defending NR for drop backs on super duper steroids 

at least be consistent 

aussiebattler

Horses L6 and below need more protection in either system for it to be
more successful

 

last 8 starts in this type race for two 3rds Two sets of rules for this
start type at the moment some selected top-down others selected bottom-up but
all still eligible to drop back, if they were Balloted, they would have to look
at Level Races as another option - so many variables to Navigate but there are
some trainers that have the system down pat and avoid going back into the Level
Races

 

not eligible for levels 1 - 10 in HWOE races Irrelevant when hasn't
started in HWOE LEVEL races since 17 June 22 can compete against lower L class
horses in the L5$LT races. 

 

will always be a higher level than non-winners There will still be Maiden
Races and races programmed for horses with no more than X number of wins if
they are then selected based on NR it could possibly create an even
field. 

will always be higher than level 10 horses Irrelevant if you don't
compete in the HWOE LEVEL

will always be higher than a horse having its first start

 

currently the above applies but when NR comes in

he can drop to 30 and be 20 points below a first starter Irrelevant if they use horses with no more than X number of wins as race condition. 

NR makes HWOE drop backs look mild You missed out Mentioning
L5$LT here if it was just comparing NR and HWOE that would be correct but when
you throw in the L5$LT in to the mix we have L11 (10 wins) competing against L4
(2 wins) and there has to be a better way of compiling fields than that even
with what we have - I've always thought the L5$LT would have been better used
as a field selection condition rather than an entirely separate handicapping
Model within the Level System eg L1/4 L5$LT4 , L5/L8 L5$LT4 ,L9+ L5$LT4
and ELIMINATE
ANY DROP BACK  

Chopchop43

I keep saying it both systems need to go jump in the trash can

JayJay

Tri Royale Brigade's NR is 57. A long way off reaching a theoretical NR 30, and I suggest, a far more realistic assessment, as opposed to racing in community race fields. That is not a criticism of his placement, we all race our horses under the system that is in place at the time.

Drop backs on steroids or super steroids? A subjective assessment.

Both systems are overtly generous on drop backs. You used a theoretical drop back to NR 30 as an example. 

Here's another one, an actuality.  In the metro L5$LT25k and 20k races where theoretically you can earn in excess of $15 to $17k by running 5 consecutive seconds or thirds and still drop back into a lower class, is a "super duper steroidal drop back" that would not happen under NR.

That is not being inconsistent, that is reality. Under the conditioned system $L5 races, there are far too many horses dropping back and far too few going up. It is true that the same idiom applies to NR but the above anomaly in $L5 is what I have consistently labelled as drop back on steroids.

aussiebattler

Chopchop43 said:

I keep saying it both systems need to go jump in the trash can

both systems seem to revert back to MCR conditions on the races anyway so I dont see how its alot different to what we had 

L1 = Maiden = C0/R0

L2= C0/R1

L3=C1/R2

NR programmed for horses with no more than 2 wins  = CO/C2 with field selected on FSP instead of NR

Jay Jay your correct with the NR for Tri Royal Brigade, his NR is probably a good example initial rating as of 01 May 2019 50 reached a max rating of 79 and has dropped to 57 , hasn't reached the WA points lock cap of 50, on transition could possibly stay at NR57. 

The horses affected by the Points Lock would Possibly be the ones negatively affected in transition and may need to be reviewed and adjusted. It will be interesting to see what they do as for example. 

Swanbourne Spunk L6(4 wins (Basically 2 C Class and 2 R Class wins)- 

NR Points Timeline

Initial Rating 01 May 2019 NR40 

3YO seasonal adjustment Sept 19 +10 = NR50 

Dropped to NR47 points by 11 June 21 

Drop back adjustment 17 June 21 +3 points when the points lock came in so Back to NR50 

Had -36 points based on unplaced performances and + 10 points for wins in the time since then.

Does that transition to him being -26 points being Taken from his Current NR51? making him NR25 how do they anticipate to transition horses like that - what is a fair outcome? now we are entering a National System Late against horses that have been in the system since 2019?  

warrenrobinson

The drop back system has never been successful and never will, as long as we keep recycling and not refresh we will fail. No Handicap No Turnover No Future.

Rocket_Reign

The drop back system definitely has positives, keeps plenty of horses in the State/Aus that would otherwise be out of here

warrenrobinson

The facts and the figures suggest your wrong Rocket.

getthechange

aussie

I agree that more protection is needed mostly as a result of 25% and 75% penalties 

under NR 3yo+ take 100% and 2yos effectively 50% penalties and I think they have that right

two sets of rules for Lt$4k and LT$8k - think the logic behind this is ok - triroyale brigade has been ballotted from the bottom up  and but can get a start in the top down race - effectively a weaker and sttronger division - going to the level/HWOE race isnt an alterntive as he gets a start level of 11 and gets penalised just for starting - his future is in L5$LT$4k and $8k races

one of the selling points was that NR would be easy to understand - punters could just look at the NR races they were in - quite a lot of no NR races which is effectively another handicapping system

my biggest beef with the L5$LT races is horse with good form being able to drop a level -  agree with the logic of not being eligible if placed higher in last three starts but think it should be if placed twice from last five starts because it gives some flexibility - Sidstrepo is a level 8 racing in L5$LT$8k races and would start in L7/8 but if placed he cant start in the l5$Lt48k for a minimum iof three starts

11 wins competing against 4 wins - the L5$Lt races are the only races drop back races in the system and allow horses to get back - the L4 to L8 can start in the L races against horse without drop backs but they choose to start in the drop back races instead - the alternative is to drop them back like in MCR with higher horses dropping back in the L levels onto the lower horses

you use triroyale brigade as an example and suggest he wouldnt get back but

Iamawingate L11   16 wins    $118k stakemoney    $35k last season  - wins at 43 points 46,43,45,45,47,45   the 4 wins last season were in 0-50    30-45    30-45   - 30-50

getthechange

jay jay - you started  with triroyale brigaade

Sarge - foritudo both on 30 points and $100k earners  lotakevi  -  my ultimate romeo  -  krafty boy all L10+ and on 39 points

only 189 horses -would be interesting to know how many high earners are  on low points

I did say some of the back on steroids comments were justified

getthechange

question

why does NR start on 50 and allow horses to drop to 30 

when the following seems to be more logical

starting at 30 and adding win points only until reaching 50 with 50 after that being the lowest to which a horse could drop 

30 would be a maiden and protection for horses up to 50 

aussiebattler

Iamawingate L11   16 wins    $118k stakemoney    $35k last season  - wins at 43 points 46,43,45,45,47,45   the 4 wins last season were in 0-50    30-45    30-45   - 30-50

side by side comparison

lifetime Summary  

IMAWINGATE 163-16-24-24 $118,160     TRIROYALE BRIGADE 126-10-19-18 $144,159

Initial Rating as of 01 May 2019 NR50 TRB Initial Rating NR50 as of 01 May 2019

Max rating reached NR62                   TRB Max Rating NR76

Current Rating NR46                          TRB Current Rating NR57 hasn't reached points lock level 50 but with 7 more 6th to last placings it might get there by 1 Jan 2025 Lower number of lifetime starts for higher earnings. 

lifetime Summary 163-16-24-24 $118,160     TRB 126-10-19-18 $144,159

Lifetime Average earnings per start $724.90       TRB $1144.10 LT average per start.

Last Season Average earnings per start $671.90 TRB $763.40 LS average per start 

This Season Average earnings per start $766.40 TRB $328.85 TS average per start 

looks like he's done some hard yards to earn an average return on investment, without a full review of the NR and what his opposition has been it is hard to judge the system. But he has obviously gone up and down in NR and has been below NR50 since 28 Nov 2022

I certainly dont thing they have the NR sorted but I don't think TRB would need to have his NR reduced when transitioning. 

I do think they will need to implement the win range/NR for it to be able to work in WA and possibly reverse the Points lock and apply it to any interstate/overseas horses that come into WA for a period of adjustment of 2-3 years so that we don't have an influx of lower rated horses coming into the state. Alot will depend on how we transition across and what our NR will be when we change over.

Markovina

The NR system has got holes galore in it - and in some instances horses do drop back far too quickly - about 6 mths back i gave the example at Redcliffe - a proven horse 200 starts , 20 wins 60 places about 175k in stakes and a NR of 38 compared to a 3yr old filly in the same race - 4 starts done very little and got a NR of 43 - so that is utter garbage 

However on the other side of the coin , i think the most obscenely unfairly handicapped horse ever under the NR system has to to be the poor old ex WA Pacer Robbie Rocket , Huston had it in WA , Pizzuto now owns it and trains it in NSW- it just ran at Newcastle , blew from 7-4 to 5s and ran 7th 

Its overall record is nothing flash 70 starts , 10 wins 28 placings 142k in stakes , and only 2 wins where it banked over 10k as the winner and they were just over 10k 

Has not done much in NSW  now 18 starts for  three  2nds  four 3rds and 20k in stakes 

That race at Newcastle tonight was for NR up to 90 that is a hard mark - a couple of the Menangle races it ran in , they were NR races up to 95 , and a couple of others were no NR - so i imagine they are free for alls 

Its currently got a NR of 83 - for what that horse has actually done i think it is miles too high