No luck last week, Henley stumbled on the back nine to finish top 10.
This week, there are a couple of tournaments on. The Dubai Desert Classic has a host of big euro names playing and will be a good watch with Rory, Rahm, Hovland, Hatton etc etc
In the US, the AMEX starts tonight, won by then amateur Nick Dunlap.
The first week was fresh and new. The second week had the Tiger factor.
I didn't watch it this morning but watched the Kayo Mini and really, I was thinking this is actually a little boring. The players just have no personality and anything they do seems forced. I guess that what you get when you need to be serious all the time.
The Farmers Insurance at Torrey Pines starts tonight, a Wednesday to Saturday tournament I think due to College football.
Anyway, haven't dived deep here as a lot of the field have pulled out. This is because of a few reason. Firstly, because of the fires, the Genesis will now be in three weeks at a different venue which throws a lot of schedules around. The other is actually the timing of TGL. Can you believe it. Also, next week, Pebble Beach is a signature event, so every second week seems to be a "mule" event where none of the big dogs want to play.
With a decimated field, the odds are headed by Ludvig Aberg and Hideki Matsuyama. They are at $10 each and really, they are the best in the field now with guys like Xander and Scottie out, a long with in form players like JT.
It's played at the North and South courses of Torrey Pines and after a 36 hole cut will end on the South Course. With classic historical holes,.it's a shame that the timing of things has reduced this field to just an event instead of the classic it has been in the past.
So in saying that, I won't be going deep here.
I've had 1 unit each way on Camillo Villegas.
Tabtouch were kind enough to give me $601 for the win and $101 for the place (top 6).
Ok, he won't win. But this is well overs. He played well last week finishing near the top of the leaderboard. He shot 10 under on one of the days last week at La Quinta. I don't care who you are, but if you shoot 10 under on one day and finish t7 at 19 under, you are in form. When he previously won, he played well the week before after a long run of average form.
No good for Villegas, who played his last 8 holes in 4 over to miss the cut.
Me old mate Harris English got up to win which was a bit of a dagger as I have been on him this season already and he was trending. If I have to be honest I've been a bit lazy in January and need to lift. He could have been easily found as a previous winner and someone who has been playing well
Had 6 weeks off over November and December with holidays.
Came back with a flurry. This year I am down to a 12 now after consistently shooting low 80s in comp. Second game back, holed out from 173m at Seaview for an eagle. A couple of weeks ago around Maylands, had my lowest comp round ever with a 78 which included a double on the first. Then last week, while I hit the ball horribly, I had only 24 putts for an 82 and 37 points.
Golf is such a game of high and lows. I shot 78 and was on cloud 9 and then 3 days later shot an atrocious round of 90.
I'm in my late 50s and recently got my HCP down to a new pb of 3.4 Shot 3 under with 7 birdies. P.b to par and birdie tally. 4.2 was previous pb. Got fitted for driver and irons and 3 under came in just 2nd comp with the new sticks. This time last year hcp was 6.1
This number way too good to pass up. I'm not putting too much stock in the Scheffler time off/injury. He is automatic top 5 and all reports are he flushed it in his practice round yesterday. Rory, who is also playing well should be there when the whips are cracking.
The first Signature event of the season is here, the Pebble beach Pro Am.
Known throughout the years for its wealth of celebrity star power along with stars on the course. This year is no different, being a Signature event, all but 2 of the Worlds Top 10 tee it up at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill over rounds 1 and 2, finishing at Pebble Beach for the final 2 rounds. Its a no cut event for 80 players, so the odds are compressed, as it also brings more players into the mix over 4 rounds.
COURSE: The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am reverted to a two-course rotation for 2025 with the smaller Signature Event field.
Pebble Beach: Par 72, 6,972 yards.
Spyglass Hill: Par 72, 7,041 yards.
72-HOLE RECORD: 265, Brandt Snedeker (2015)
18-HOLE RECORD:
Pebble Beach record: 60, Wyndham Clark (third round, 2024)
Spyglass Hill record: 62, Phil Mickelson (first round, 2005), Luke Donald (first round, 2006)
The main players are at the top of the markets, with Scheffler a firm $6 favorite from Rory $10 and Justin Thomas $13.
Because this is a two course rotation, Im electing to wait after round 2 to look at the combined course strokes gained metric to get a more realistic feel as to what players are doing what well and how this translates to Pebble for the last two rounds.
In any case, Pebble beach requires players to put a premium on hitting the fairway AND taking less than driver on more than a few ocassions. Players with superior iron play fro the tee should be well suited here and those hitting the most fairways will be able to attack pins on the small postage stamp greens.
Scheffler, while coming of an extended layoff after injuring his hand on Christmas, may seem vulnerable first up.
It is in my opinion that he is 100% ready to go. Whispers of his excellent practice round have circulated and its seems the world number 1 player is full steam ahead now, after foregoing last weeks Farmers Insurance Open to give himself one more week. Lets not forget that just before Christmas, Scheffler dominated the Hero World Challenge and won by 6 shots.
The $6 might look juicy come the weekend, but Im happy to sit out rounds 1 and 2. If he leads after 26 holes, well itll be a no outright bet for me this week.
Last season and early this season has proven tough to find an outright winner, coupling the dominance of Scheffler with the reduced field nature of the signature events. It seems that anyone can win a tournament on any given day and parsing data to solve the riddle of the week has become much much harder. So will change it up this week and see if that is helpful
The only bet alive this week, thus far, is Scheffler AND Rory top 5 (inc ties) at $10.
Scheffler is the bet here, well around him anyway.
Statistically, it's his best course. 2 wins and a third in the last 3 years, where last year he couldn't hole a putt to save his life and yet he still nearly won.
Last week, comes off an extended layoff with a hand injury, shoots 15 under and another top 10.
With the run under his belt, I think he wins hard held here. If it's your thing, load up on the $3.80
I'm playing around this for some interest.
Some same tournament multis
Scheffler top 5 Straka and Glover top 20 2.5 units at $17.79
Scheffler Win Staka and Glover top 20 2.5 units at $36.35
Scheffler First round leader 2.5 units at $11
Dual forecast any order Scheffler/Thomas 2.5 units at $21
Scheffler shot a very up and down -2 overnight which could have easily been +2 if not for some second nine brilliance. He sits 5 off the pace.
He leads the field in approach as usual, lost significantly with the putter and did look a little rusty. He teed off in the arvo groups which was the harder wave.
He is now 5.50 to win. I think this represents excellent value for a couple of reasons.
He tees off early AM on the second round. This will be an easier wave. Secondly, his statistical profile around TPC Scottsdale is unmatched when it comes to morning wave rounds. He averages 65.5 when teeing off early and if this is the norm tomorrow, then he will be right in the mix after round 2.
He left a ton of shots out there and it would be surprising to see that happen again.
Over in LIV, Hatton had a great first round of -6. It seems the course played easy with Meronk out in front with an opening 62.
He sits as $6 favorite now.
So saying all that, Ive had 2.5 units at $33 for both Scheffler and Hatton to keep on their winning ways
Scheffler proving the statisticians right over night. Shoots a bogey free 66 to be still 5 shots off the lead, behind Thomas Detry, who is no danger of winning this tournament.
He retains $5 favoritism and expect him to be one or two back after round 3.
Over in LIV, Hatton played well again over night, bit not well enough it seems. Meronk seems to have found something and leads at -16, 2 shots clear of nearest rival and 5 clear of Hatton. Big ask for Tyrrell to run Meronk down in the current form he is in.
Well a "disappointed" -3 for Scheffler overnight who sits now at -10, a whole 8 shots back from Detry who continues to streak the field. He leads his nearest rival by a whopping 5 shots.
Those who follow the game know that Detry is a perennial non winner, not having won on the PGA or DP world tour as yet, even though he is regarded as one of the better players in the world. It's staggering that he hasn't won, with his lone pro win coming on the Sunshine Tour in South Africa many moons ago.
A testament to this is that he is still a juicy $1.50 to win even with a 5 shot lead.
Scheffler is $17 and would realistically need a 63 and Detry to absolutely shit the bed. With no financial windfall in this tournament for me, I hope Detry can get it done.
Over in LIV, Meronk holds on from a fast finishing Rahm to claim his maiden LIV win. He leads from start to finish. Hatton had a poor third round of 2 under to ultimately finish 5 back
This week there are a couple.pf big tournaments to get your teeth into
On the PGA tour we have the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines (again) which will be a massive test for all involved. Since they played there only a few weeks back, the rough has been grown out to put an even greater premium on hitting the fairway.
On the LIV tour, they are teeing it up in Adelaide starting on Friday. Now a massive event on the Australian calendar, it's one that fans and the players look very forward to. Love to get there one year. Early days I like Mean Dean Burmester here. He played well here last year and is always around the mark. Last week under the lights he finished T4 only 3 shots back. The big Saffer will be in his element in the hot weather and the raucous crowds. He is currently $23.
Big Dean was no good over the 3 days, couldn't get out of 2nd gear offsetting a ton of birdies with too many bogies.
It was a good tournament with Niemann taking the prize by a widening 3 shots in the end.
On the PGA tour, ot was Lud the Stud Aberg winning with a birdie on the last, from.a.fast finishing Maverick McNealy and Scheffler, who had a 76 on the Saturday and lost by only 3 shots!!!
Ive been right into AI and the power it brings to everyday life. Here is my attempts for this weeks Mexico open utilising course and statistical data from various sources. Ive asked the engine to keep it casual and inject some humour so here goes!
2025 Mexico Open Preview: Betting Odds, Predictions & Who’s Bringing the Heat? The PGA Tour heads south of the border this week for the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld (Feb 20-23), a tournament known for its birdie-friendly vibes, scenic views, and some serious long drives. With no top-25 players in the field, this is a prime chance for up-and-comers (and a few seasoned vets) to grab a win and sip some margaritas in celebration.
Let’s break it down—who’s hot, who’s not, and who might just surprise us in Mexico. ????????️♂️ Course Breakdown: Vidanta Vallarta If Greg Norman designs a course, you can bet it’s going to be long. Vidanta Vallarta is a 7,456-yard, par-71 monster that favors big hitters and aggressive players. The fairways are wide, the greens are massive, and the coastal winds can spice things up like a fresh batch of salsa.
Some key things to watch out for: Bombers have the edge. Long hitters can really take advantage of the five par-5s and the driveable par-4 seventh. The 10th hole is a heartbreaker. If you're betting on a player, hope they survive this one. Low scores are coming. The last three winners finished at -17 or better. At the 2025 Mexico Open at VidantaWorld, several players stand out for their driving prowess, both in distance and accuracy.
Longest Drivers: Jake Knapp: The defending champion averaged 322.5 yards off the tee during his 2024 victory, ranking second in the field. Vincent Norrman: The Swedish golfer ranks 17th in Driving Distance on the PGA Tour, showcasing his ability to cover substantial ground off the tee. Most Accurate Drivers: C.T. Pan: Known for his precision, Pan boasts a driving accuracy of 64.4%, placing him 60th on the PGA Tour. Carson Young: While not the longest hitter, Young's accuracy off the tee has been a key factor in his consistent performances, including a second-place finish at El Cardonal in November 2024.
Vidanta Vallarta's layout, with its generous fairways and emphasis on strategic play, offers opportunities for both long hitters and accurate drivers to excel.
Who’s Favored to Win? With the big-name guys taking the week off (probably still counting their winnings from Torrey Pines), here’s a look at the favorites, sleepers, and longshots worth keeping an eye on: The Favorites: Akshay Bhatia ($13) – The young lefty is on fire after a T-9 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open and already has a solo 4th at Vidanta in 2023. He’s long, aggressive, and could definitely ride the hot hand to a win. Rasmus Højgaard ($21) – The Danish bomber has the power to dominate here, but his recent missed cut at Torrey Pines is a little concerning. If he dials it in, though, he could be a problem.Kurt Kitayama ($21) – Ball-striking machine with a win at last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. If he gets hot, he could run away with this one.
Sleepers & Value Picks:
Patrick Rodgers ($23) – Has quietly finished in the top 10 here multiple times. Could this be his breakthrough week? Jake Knapp ($36) – Your defending champ loves this course and just won in Mexico last year. Getting him at $36 feels like a solid value bet. Erik van Rooyen ($56) – The South African with the most stylish joggers in golf can get hot with the putter and go low in a hurry.
Who’s Taking Home the Trophy? Let’s be real—this one’s wide open. But based on current form, course fit, and a little gut feeling, here are some picks:
Winner: Akshay Bhatia ($13) – He’s got the momentum, the course history, and the swagger to win this thing.
Top 5 Pick: Patrick Rodgers ($23) – Mr. Consistent at Vidanta, he’s a great bet to be in the mix.
Longshot Bet: Jake Knapp ($36) – Why not? He won here last year, and we know he can go low.
Final Thoughts & Betting Strategy This tournament is perfect for betting on guys who love to go low and feast on par-5s. If you’re looking for value, don’t sleep on Patrick Rodgers or Jake Knapp. And if you want a safe bet, Akshay Bhatia seems like a guy who’s due for another win. So grab your tequila, place your bets, and get ready for a birdie-fest in Mexico. ????⛳
Comments
Henley was +2 early but came home with a flurry to post -4, even with a late bogey. And excellent recovery from early troubles.
This week, there are a couple of tournaments on. The Dubai Desert Classic has a host of big euro names playing and will be a good watch with Rory, Rahm, Hovland, Hatton etc etc
In the US, the AMEX starts tonight, won by then amateur Nick Dunlap.
I like tow blokes pre tournament
Sam Burns $17
Eric Cole $56
Spend 5 units for around 63 return
Good luck
The first week was fresh and new. The second week had the Tiger factor.
I didn't watch it this morning but watched the Kayo Mini and really, I was thinking this is actually a little boring. The players just have no personality and anything they do seems forced. I guess that what you get when you need to be serious all the time.
jum likes this post.
Anyway, haven't dived deep here as a lot of the field have pulled out. This is because of a few reason. Firstly, because of the fires, the Genesis will now be in three weeks at a different venue which throws a lot of schedules around. The other is actually the timing of TGL. Can you believe it. Also, next week, Pebble Beach is a signature event, so every second week seems to be a "mule" event where none of the big dogs want to play.
With a decimated field, the odds are headed by Ludvig Aberg and Hideki Matsuyama. They are at $10 each and really, they are the best in the field now with guys like Xander and Scottie out, a long with in form players like JT.
It's played at the North and South courses of Torrey Pines and after a 36 hole cut will end on the South Course. With classic historical holes,.it's a shame that the timing of things has reduced this field to just an event instead of the classic it has been in the past.
So in saying that, I won't be going deep here.
I've had 1 unit each way on Camillo Villegas.
Tabtouch were kind enough to give me $601 for the win and $101 for the place (top 6).
Ok, he won't win. But this is well overs. He played well last week finishing near the top of the leaderboard. He shot 10 under on one of the days last week at La Quinta. I don't care who you are, but if you shoot 10 under on one day and finish t7 at 19 under, you are in form. When he previously won, he played well the week before after a long run of average form.
2 units out for for 702 units back.
Good luck
jum likes this post.
Me old mate Harris English got up to win which was a bit of a dagger as I have been on him this season already and he was trending. If I have to be honest I've been a bit lazy in January and need to lift. He could have been easily found as a previous winner and someone who has been playing well
Anyway, we move on.
Had 6 weeks off over November and December with holidays.
Came back with a flurry. This year I am down to a 12 now after consistently shooting low 80s in comp. Second game back, holed out from 173m at Seaview for an eagle. A couple of weeks ago around Maylands, had my lowest comp round ever with a 78 which included a double on the first. Then last week, while I hit the ball horribly, I had only 24 putts for an 82 and 37 points.
Golf is such a game of high and lows. I shot 78 and was on cloud 9 and then 3 days later shot an atrocious round of 90.
That's why we love it.
jum likes this post.
Shot 3 under with 7 birdies. P.b to par and birdie tally. 4.2 was previous pb. Got fitted for driver and irons and 3 under came in just 2nd comp with the new sticks. This time last year hcp was 6.1
H-BOMBER, jum likes this post.
Scheffler AND Rory top 5 INC ties
5 units at $10
This number way too good to pass up. I'm not putting too much stock in the Scheffler time off/injury. He is automatic top 5 and all reports are he flushed it in his practice round yesterday. Rory, who is also playing well should be there when the whips are cracking.
More soon
No cigar this week
I backed Rory for the Masters before this tournament at $10, I'm pretty keen on him this year. He is still $10.
Other futures
Hatton for the Open $34
Scheffler US Open $6.50
Scheffler is the bet here, well around him anyway.
Statistically, it's his best course. 2 wins and a third in the last 3 years, where last year he couldn't hole a putt to save his life and yet he still nearly won.
Last week, comes off an extended layoff with a hand injury, shoots 15 under and another top 10.
With the run under his belt, I think he wins hard held here. If it's your thing, load up on the $3.80
I'm playing around this for some interest.
Some same tournament multis
Scheffler top 5
Straka and Glover top 20
2.5 units at $17.79
Scheffler Win
Staka and Glover top 20
2.5 units at $36.35
Scheffler First round leader
2.5 units at $11
Dual forecast any order
Scheffler/Thomas
2.5 units at $21
Scheffler/Straka
2.5 units at $51
12.5 units out this week at Phoenix. Good luck
jum likes this post.
A couple of bets here
Hatton first round leader
2.5 units at $12
Same tournament multi
Hatton/Bryson Win
Niemann and Rahm top 10
2.5 units at $12.74
5 units here
He leads the field in approach as usual, lost significantly with the putter and did look a little rusty. He teed off in the arvo groups which was the harder wave.
He is now 5.50 to win. I think this represents excellent value for a couple of reasons.
He tees off early AM on the second round. This will be an easier wave. Secondly, his statistical profile around TPC Scottsdale is unmatched when it comes to morning wave rounds. He averages 65.5 when teeing off early and if this is the norm tomorrow, then he will be right in the mix after round 2.
He left a ton of shots out there and it would be surprising to see that happen again.
Over in LIV, Hatton had a great first round of -6. It seems the course played easy with Meronk out in front with an opening 62.
He sits as $6 favorite now.
So saying all that, Ive had 2.5 units at $33 for both Scheffler and Hatton to keep on their winning ways
Good luck and good viewing
He retains $5 favoritism and expect him to be one or two back after round 3.
Over in LIV, Hatton played well again over night, bit not well enough it seems. Meronk seems to have found something and leads at -16, 2 shots clear of nearest rival and 5 clear of Hatton. Big ask for Tyrrell to run Meronk down in the current form he is in.
Those who follow the game know that Detry is a perennial non winner, not having won on the PGA or DP world tour as yet, even though he is regarded as one of the better players in the world. It's staggering that he hasn't won, with his lone pro win coming on the Sunshine Tour in South Africa many moons ago.
A testament to this is that he is still a juicy $1.50 to win even with a 5 shot lead.
Scheffler is $17 and would realistically need a 63 and Detry to absolutely shit the bed. With no financial windfall in this tournament for me, I hope Detry can get it done.
The penny may have dropped.
H-BOMBER likes this post.
On the PGA tour we have the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines (again) which will be a massive test for all involved. Since they played there only a few weeks back, the rough has been grown out to put an even greater premium on hitting the fairway.
On the LIV tour, they are teeing it up in Adelaide starting on Friday. Now a massive event on the Australian calendar, it's one that fans and the players look very forward to. Love to get there one year. Early days I like Mean Dean Burmester here. He played well here last year and is always around the mark. Last week under the lights he finished T4 only 3 shots back. The big Saffer will be in his element in the hot weather and the raucous crowds. He is currently $23.
More soon
5 units at $23.
Will wait till the cut at Genesis I think
It was a good tournament with Niemann taking the prize by a widening 3 shots in the end.
On the PGA tour, ot was Lud the Stud Aberg winning with a birdie on the last, from.a.fast finishing Maverick McNealy and Scheffler, who had a 76 on the Saturday and lost by only 3 shots!!!
Ive been right into AI and the power it brings to everyday life. Here is my attempts for this weeks Mexico open utilising course and statistical data from various sources. Ive asked the engine to keep it casual and inject some humour so here goes!
2025 Mexico Open Preview: Betting Odds, Predictions & Who’s Bringing the Heat?
The PGA Tour heads south of the border this week for the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld (Feb 20-23), a tournament known for its birdie-friendly vibes, scenic views, and some serious long drives. With no top-25 players in the field, this is a prime chance for up-and-comers (and a few seasoned vets) to grab a win and sip some margaritas in celebration.
Let’s break it down—who’s hot, who’s not, and who might just surprise us in Mexico. ????????️♂️
Course Breakdown: Vidanta Vallarta
If Greg Norman designs a course, you can bet it’s going to be long. Vidanta Vallarta is a 7,456-yard, par-71 monster that favors big hitters and aggressive players. The fairways are wide, the greens are massive, and the coastal winds can spice things up like a fresh batch of salsa.
Some key things to watch out for:
Bombers have the edge. Long hitters can really take advantage of the five par-5s and the driveable par-4 seventh.
The 10th hole is a heartbreaker. If you're betting on a player, hope they survive this one.
Low scores are coming. The last three winners finished at -17 or better.
At the 2025 Mexico Open at VidantaWorld, several players stand out for their driving prowess, both in distance and accuracy.
Longest Drivers:
Jake Knapp: The defending champion averaged 322.5 yards off the tee during his 2024 victory, ranking second in the field.
Vincent Norrman: The Swedish golfer ranks 17th in Driving Distance on the PGA Tour, showcasing his ability to cover substantial ground off the tee.
Most Accurate Drivers:
C.T. Pan: Known for his precision, Pan boasts a driving accuracy of 64.4%, placing him 60th on the PGA Tour.
Carson Young: While not the longest hitter, Young's accuracy off the tee has been a key factor in his consistent performances, including a second-place finish at El Cardonal in November 2024.
Vidanta Vallarta's layout, with its generous fairways and emphasis on strategic play, offers opportunities for both long hitters and accurate drivers to excel.
Who’s Favored to Win?
With the big-name guys taking the week off (probably still counting their winnings from Torrey Pines), here’s a look at the favorites, sleepers, and longshots worth keeping an eye on:
The Favorites:
Akshay Bhatia ($13) – The young lefty is on fire after a T-9 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open and already has a solo 4th at Vidanta in 2023. He’s long, aggressive, and could definitely ride the hot hand to a win.
Rasmus Højgaard ($21) – The Danish bomber has the power to dominate here, but his recent missed cut at Torrey Pines is a little concerning. If he dials it in, though, he could be a problem.Kurt Kitayama ($21) – Ball-striking machine with a win at last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. If he gets hot, he could run away with this one.
Sleepers & Value Picks:
Patrick Rodgers ($23) – Has quietly finished in the top 10 here multiple times. Could this be his breakthrough week?
Jake Knapp ($36) – Your defending champ loves this course and just won in Mexico last year. Getting him at $36 feels like a solid value bet.
Erik van Rooyen ($56) – The South African with the most stylish joggers in golf can get hot with the putter and go low in a hurry.
Who’s Taking Home the Trophy?
Let’s be real—this one’s wide open. But based on current form, course fit, and a little gut feeling, here are some picks:
Winner: Akshay Bhatia ($13) – He’s got the momentum, the course history, and the swagger to win this thing.
Top 5 Pick: Patrick Rodgers ($23) – Mr. Consistent at Vidanta, he’s a great bet to be in the mix.
Longshot Bet: Jake Knapp ($36) – Why not? He won here last year, and we know he can go low.
Final Thoughts & Betting Strategy
This tournament is perfect for betting on guys who love to go low and feast on par-5s. If you’re looking for value, don’t sleep on Patrick Rodgers or Jake Knapp. And if you want a safe bet, Akshay Bhatia seems like a guy who’s due for another win.
So grab your tequila, place your bets, and get ready for a birdie-fest in Mexico. ????⛳
Bhatia $14.2
Kitayama $21
Rodgers $23
Van Rooyen $61
Norrman $81
5.8 units out for 30 return
Year to date -47 units