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  • Chopchop43Chopchop43    305 posts
    JayJay said:

    Getting Inbox and private emails telling me I am doing it all wrong, I should be doing this, I should be quoting the average starting price of the favourite, I should be eliminating outriders both short and long priced, I should be showing a graph with Standard deviation, the data sample is too small, should be doing it track by track, class by class, should be comparing PBD with RBD, should be quoting last years figures etc etc etc. So taking all that gratuitous advice on board, I'll leave it to the experts. 

    <br/ I was just asking the question out of curiosity, I mean out the end of the day I guess the best measurement of how successful the NR system is or isn't will only be known once they release turnover figures in the future
  • warrenrobinsonwarrenrobinson    262 posts
    Interesting facts, the 2.28 handicap model worked you win you take a handicap no dropbacks pretty simple, MCR failed, HWOE failed so now we have NR so from day one some industry participants aren't happy eg GP owners association, GP and people who were involved with the introduction of the models that have failed so let me give you a little advice f...off and find another hobby.

    JimmyPop likes this post.

  • FrogFrog    115 posts
    No birdcage interviews Monday & Tuesday, is this also
    a new change in 2025 ???
  • Chopchop43Chopchop43    305 posts

    Interesting facts, the 2.28 handicap model worked you win you take a handicap no dropbacks pretty simple, MCR failed, HWOE failed so now we have NR so from day one some industry participants aren't happy eg GP owners association, GP and people who were involved with the introduction of the models that have failed so let me give you a little advice f...off and find another hobby.


    so if it worked why is it non existent now ?? Or did it only work in your opinion??? Remember we don't work on opinions we just work on facts. I think people are entitled to like or dislike what they want if, everyone was to just 'fuck off' as your high iq response suggests then we most likely wouldn't have an industry, I'll openly admit I'm not optimistic about the nr system, if it was so good why is it that well known that it's nationally hated by the majority of participants over east ?? And to that point what makes people think it's going to work over here. Or is it a case of it's just the lesser of 2 evils so support it ???

    TimmyBee likes this post.

  • MarkovinaMarkovina    3,085 posts
    edited January 22
    Ive been consistent in my view all along that handicapping systems have very little  affect on Trots turnover 

    One thing i would possibly look at - last Sunday i think it was i was betting on a few Swan Hill Trots races , and on my computer i caught the last 200 metres of a gallops race at Sha Tin - i dont follow them or bet on them , but i saw the last 200 metres vision , it was the race Purton got hopelessly pocketed on the fave who ran 3rd

    A $16 pop won the race , the 2nd horse paid $15 a place , and all dividends Vic/Super - NSW and QLD/Unitab were identical 

    So i looked up that race on TAB.Com , and i was staggered by the pool sizes eg 7 million in the quinella which paid over $500 on the race - so im assuming all the Aust money accross the 3 totes is in with the local HK Money and there is just one giant pool and even at 5 HK Dollars to 1 Aussie its still $1.4 mil Aust in that quinella pool 

    The bottom line in Aust just have 1 big Trots tote pool comprising Vic/Super - NSW and Unitab/qld - they can still have and run their own fixed odds book - but if there was just one big Trots Tote pool - and especially with quin/tri/1st 4 - those pools might hold serious  money which punters love betting into and thus Trots turnover might get a bit of a jolt

    Offthebit, JimmyPop likes this post.

  • meatpiemeatpie    534 posts
    Markovina said:

    Ive been consistent in my view all along that handicapping systems have very little  affect on Trots turnover 


    One thing i would possibly look at - last Sunday i think it was i was betting on a few Swan Hill Trots races , and on my computer i caught the last 200 metres of a gallops race at Sha Tin - i dont follow them or bet on them , but i saw the last 200 metres vision , it was the race Purton got hopelessly pocketed on the fave who ran 3rd

    A $16 pop won the race , the 2nd horse paid $15 a place , and all dividends Vic/Super - NSW and QLD/Unitab were identical 

    So i looked up that race on TAB.Com , and i was staggered by the pool sizes eg 7 million in the quinella which paid over $500 on the race - so im assuming all the Aust money accross the 3 totes is in with the local HK Money and there is just one giant pool and even at 5 HK Dollars to 1 Aussie its still $1.4 mil Aust in that quinella pool 

    The bottom line in Aust just have 1 big Trots tote pool comprising Vic/Super - NSW and Unitab/qld - they can still have and run their own fixed odds book - but if there was just one big Trots Tote pool - and especially with quin/tri/1st 4 - those pools might hold serious  money which punters love betting into and thus Trots turnover might get a bit of a jolt
    It's called World Pool

    Most of Australia's biggest thoroughbred races and pretty sure a large number of the feature Australian meetings bet into the World Pool, very prevalent at Spring Carnival.

    Markovina likes this post.

  • getthechangegetthechange    338 posts

    JayJay said:

    13 race meetings now run, 102 races, average winning starting price still holding way above the direct comparison fro 2024 at $6.11.

    18 of the 102 races won by concession/junior drivers, opportunities escalating, 4 of the 9 runners in the featured $20,000 Albany Cup, including the winner, utilised concession claims.

    Only 22 winners under $2.00 and just 4 under $1.20 with 20 winners at $10 or better.

    just out of curiosity wouldn't a better indication of whether or not the nr system is working turnover wise (all be it in such a small sample size) be the average price of each favourite, rather than average price each winner, I mean all good to have an ever shortening $6.11 average winners, but I feel from a punting point of view more people will invest there hard earned on races where there isn't a favourite in the red , hard to make the comparison with the gallops but I feel the reason people invest more frequently into them is the fact your not seeing as many $1.90 or less pops , I guess we'll only know once they have released turnover figures whether or not nr is really making a difference but yes great to see the jnrs get a fair crack

    Interesting facts, the 2.28 handicap model worked you win you take a handicap no dropbacks pretty simple, MCR failed, HWOE failed so now we have NR so from day one some industry participants aren't happy eg GP owners association, GP and people who were involved with the introduction of the models that have failed so let me give you a little advice f...off and find another hobby.


    so if it worked why is it non existent now ?? Or did it only work in your opinion??? Remember we don't work on opinions we just work on facts. I think people are entitled to like or dislike what they want if, everyone was to just '**** off' as your high iq response suggests then we most likely wouldn't have an industry, I'll openly admit I'm not optimistic about the nr system, if it was so good why is it that well known that it's nationally hated by the majority of participants over east ?? And to that point what makes people think it's going to work over here. Or is it a case of it's just the lesser of 2 evils so support it ???
    assessment system - it was changed because
    2yos commenced racing at 2:38 mark and could win eight races and be on a 2:30 mark which was where 3yos maidens commenced racing
    3yos could win two races and be on a 2:28 mark which was where 4yo maidens commenced racing
    from memory 2yos could win 5 metro 2yo races and 3yos could win four metro 3yo races and one metro 4yo race and still be eligible for a qualifying stakes race (replaced by M0 under MC which was the fore runner to MCR)
    there were a lot of short priced runners and the WATA committee wanted to introduce graded races which was rejected by the industry. BOTRA put forward the MC system which removed a lot of the "free races" which was adopted and was showing a reduction in odds on favs until vested interest  infiltrated the committee and the system was undermined

    Chopchop43, TimmyBee likes this post.

  • Chopchop43Chopchop43    305 posts

    JayJay said:

    13 race meetings now run, 102 races, average winning starting price still holding way above the direct comparison fro 2024 at $6.11.

    18 of the 102 races won by concession/junior drivers, opportunities escalating, 4 of the 9 runners in the featured $20,000 Albany Cup, including the winner, utilised concession claims.

    Only 22 winners under $2.00 and just 4 under $1.20 with 20 winners at $10 or better.

    just out of curiosity wouldn't a better indication of whether or not the nr system is working turnover wise (all be it in such a small sample size) be the average price of each favourite, rather than average price each winner, I mean all good to have an ever shortening $6.11 average winners, but I feel from a punting point of view more people will invest there hard earned on races where there isn't a favourite in the red , hard to make the comparison with the gallops but I feel the reason people invest more frequently into them is the fact your not seeing as many $1.90 or less pops , I guess we'll only know once they have released turnover figures whether or not nr is really making a difference but yes great to see the jnrs get a fair crack

    Interesting facts, the 2.28 handicap model worked you win you take a handicap no dropbacks pretty simple, MCR failed, HWOE failed so now we have NR so from day one some industry participants aren't happy eg GP owners association, GP and people who were involved with the introduction of the models that have failed so let me give you a little advice f...off and find another hobby.


    so if it worked why is it non existent now ?? Or did it only work in your opinion??? Remember we don't work on opinions we just work on facts. I think people are entitled to like or dislike what they want if, everyone was to just '**** off' as your high iq response suggests then we most likely wouldn't have an industry, I'll openly admit I'm not optimistic about the nr system, if it was so good why is it that well known that it's nationally hated by the majority of participants over east ?? And to that point what makes people think it's going to work over here. Or is it a case of it's just the lesser of 2 evils so support it ???
    assessment system - it was changed because
    2yos commenced racing at 2:38 mark and could win eight races and be on a 2:30 mark which was where 3yos maidens commenced racing
    3yos could win two races and be on a 2:28 mark which was where 4yo maidens commenced racing
    from memory 2yos could win 5 metro 2yo races and 3yos could win four metro 3yo races and one metro 4yo race and still be eligible for a qualifying stakes race (replaced by M0 under MC which was the fore runner to MCR)
    there were a lot of short priced runners and the WATA committee wanted to introduce graded races which was rejected by the industry. BOTRA put forward the MC system which removed a lot of the "free races" which was adopted and was showing a reduction in odds on favs until vested interest  infiltrated the committee and the system was undermined

    sounds like it wasn't as perfect as what some people made it out to seem, end of the day there is never going to be a perfect system but you at least want the majority of participants on board with whatever system we are handed

    TimmyBee, JimmyPop likes this post.

  • getthechangegetthechange    338 posts
    as pointed out by chariots the average starting price of winners can be misleading
    eg 9 favs winning at $1.20 and a roughie winning at $100 gives an average of $11.08

    the sweet spot refers to the preferred starting price range of favorites which RWWA believe will  maximise turnover 

    I have no intention of updating the attachments and agree that it is a very small sample but are posted as a matter of interest
    image
    docx
    docx
    2024 - 2025 comparison.docx
    22K

    TimmyBee likes this post.

  • Chopchop43Chopchop43    305 posts

    as pointed out by chariots the average starting price of winners can be misleading

    eg 9 favs winning at $1.20 and a roughie winning at $100 gives an average of $11.08

    the sweet spot refers to the preferred starting price range of favorites which RWWA believe will  maximise turnover 

    I have no intention of updating the attachments and agree that it is a very small sample but are posted as a matter of interest
    image

    that's what I was getting at before, would the average starting price of favourites be a better way to measure the success to a degree of the nr system rather than average price of the winner
  • TimmyBeeTimmyBee    22 posts

    JayJay said:

    13 race meetings now run, 102 races, average winning starting price still holding way above the direct comparison fro 2024 at $6.11.

    18 of the 102 races won by concession/junior drivers, opportunities escalating, 4 of the 9 runners in the featured $20,000 Albany Cup, including the winner, utilised concession claims.

    Only 22 winners under $2.00 and just 4 under $1.20 with 20 winners at $10 or better.

    just out of curiosity wouldn't a better indication of whether or not the nr system is working turnover wise (all be it in such a small sample size) be the average price of each favourite, rather than average price each winner, I mean all good to have an ever shortening $6.11 average winners, but I feel from a punting point of view more people will invest there hard earned on races where there isn't a favourite in the red , hard to make the comparison with the gallops but I feel the reason people invest more frequently into them is the fact your not seeing as many $1.90 or less pops , I guess we'll only know once they have released turnover figures whether or not nr is really making a difference but yes great to see the jnrs get a fair crack

    Interesting facts, the 2.28 handicap model worked you win you take a handicap no dropbacks pretty simple, MCR failed, HWOE failed so now we have NR so from day one some industry participants aren't happy eg GP owners association, GP and people who were involved with the introduction of the models that have failed so let me give you a little advice f...off and find another hobby.


    so if it worked why is it non existent now ?? Or did it only work in your opinion??? Remember we don't work on opinions we just work on facts. I think people are entitled to like or dislike what they want if, everyone was to just '**** off' as your high iq response suggests then we most likely wouldn't have an industry, I'll openly admit I'm not optimistic about the nr system, if it was so good why is it that well known that it's nationally hated by the majority of participants over east ?? And to that point what makes people think it's going to work over here. Or is it a case of it's just the lesser of 2 evils so support it ???
    assessment system - it was changed because
    2yos commenced racing at 2:38 mark and could win eight races and be on a 2:30 mark which was where 3yos maidens commenced racing
    3yos could win two races and be on a 2:28 mark which was where 4yo maidens commenced racing
    from memory 2yos could win 5 metro 2yo races and 3yos could win four metro 3yo races and one metro 4yo race and still be eligible for a qualifying stakes race (replaced by M0 under MC which was the fore runner to MCR)
    there were a lot of short priced runners and the WATA committee wanted to introduce graded races which was rejected by the industry. BOTRA put forward the MC system which removed a lot of the "free races" which was adopted and was showing a reduction in odds on favs until vested interest  infiltrated the committee and the system was undermined

    sounds like it wasn't as perfect as what some people made it out to seem, end of the day there is never going to be a perfect system but you at least want the majority of participants on board with whatever system we are handed

    don’t be too harsh, the memory does start to go…
  • sonnysonny    1,302 posts
    Yes it is true that it is misleading  but how many 100/1 chances win on a 10 race programme..and I agree the average s.p of the favs would be better in my opinion
  • Chopchop43Chopchop43    305 posts
    sonny said:

    Yes it is true that it is misleading  but how many 100/1 chances win on a 10 race programme..and I agree the average s.p of the favs would be better in my opinion


    not too many that's for sure, but usually there 100/1 for a reason and most wouldn't of had a cent on them
  • MoonrakerMoonraker    102 posts
    A question that has been on my mind the last few weeks....

    Why at GP fridays are they they running 2 not full FFA races at $31k? obvious answer is to get race numbers up.

    But wouldnt it make more sense to to make one full field and have the lower assessed horses race in other eligable races?

    or alternatively have the weaker of the 2 races race for a a lower stake? 

    JimmyPop, LightningJake likes this post.

  • MuldoonMuldoon    423 posts

    as pointed out by chariots the average starting price of winners can be misleading

    eg 9 favs winning at $1.20 and a roughie winning at $100 gives an average of $11.08

    the sweet spot refers to the preferred starting price range of favorites which RWWA believe will  maximise turnover 

    I have no intention of updating the attachments and agree that it is a very small sample but are posted as a matter of interest
    image

    that's what I was getting at before, would the average starting price of favourites be a better way to measure the success to a degree of the nr system rather than average price of the winner
    GP Tues 6 fav. won in 7 races      Ave Fav Price $ $1.74 Ave Winner $ 1.84 High Win $3.80
    Bun Mon 4 fav. won in 8 races     Ave Fav Price $ 1.65   Ave Winner  $2.96 High Win $6.
    Alb Sat   2  Fav. won in 7 races    Ave Fav Price $ 2.13 Ave Winner $ 5.08 High Win $16.

    Chopchop43, JimmyPop likes this post.

  • warrenrobinsonwarrenrobinson    262 posts
    Interesting stat, HWOE 318 Fridays no full programs, NR 5 Fridays this week full fields long way to go but encouraging.
  • FrogFrog    115 posts
    I remember the days you had to be a C4 to get off a float at GP on a Friday night,
    this Friday great meeting with maidens going around for $20k plus prize money.
    Tuesday a must stay home programme 6 races god bless the trotters and 5 horse 
    field and 2 7 horse fields, cancel all other options Tuesday night must watch.
    2 yrs / 3 yrs / R 0 / C 0 / M 0, what a great and easy grading system.
    Now 3 yrs 4 yrs, off to the USA in record numbers and we are left with full
    fields at the second meeting and Pinjarra now looks like Collie / Williams 
    meetings.

    warrenrobinson likes this post.

  • FrogFrog    115 posts
    After Busso and Albany the GP Friday nights fields may look 
    like this for some time. Hasn't been many new horses from the 
    East or NZ lately. Sign of the time with prize money talks.

    cisco likes this post.

  • warrenrobinsonwarrenrobinson    262 posts
    Frog said:

    I remember the days you had to be a C4 to get off a float at GP on a Friday night,

    this Friday great meeting with maidens going around for $20k plus prize money.
    Tuesday a must stay home programme 6 races god bless the trotters and 5 horse 
    field and 2 7 horse fields, cancel all other options Tuesday night must watch.
    2 yrs / 3 yrs / R 0 / C 0 / M 0, what a great and easy grading system.
    Now 3 yrs 4 yrs, off to the USA in record numbers and we are left with full
    fields at the second meeting and Pinjarra now looks like Collie / Williams 
    meetings.


  • warrenrobinsonwarrenrobinson    262 posts
    I keep saying it RWWA and the WATA before it have failed our industry the figures state that, friday night GP looks good with full fields for the first time in 6plus years but as you mentioned a lot of country horses. Play a reserve football team from the country at Optus on a friday and see how many attend. 
  • Chopchop43Chopchop43    305 posts
    Frog said:

    After Busso and Albany the GP Friday nights fields may look 

    like this for some time. Hasn't been many new horses from the 
    East or NZ lately. Sign of the time with prize money talks.
    <br/ just to expensive to get them over anymore, especially from nz, always found it rather exciting when a high priced export landed and got to racing over here
  • warrenrobinsonwarrenrobinson    262 posts
    Interesting story on RWWA re Harness new NR first month's figures certainly promising.
  • FrogFrog    115 posts
    It does sound promising on paper, BUT if you look at Busso
    results the new NR systems have made the standing starts
    much  more even with more chances in every race, look at 
    Trotters cup Friday and Pinjarra Monday and GP Tuesday 
    (rare GP stand) There is value to be had in the stands with
    the new system. The mobiles are mostly odds on favs with
    some you wouldnt back with your worst friends money. So
    down to turnover figures to tell the real story.
    With Albany and Busso about to finish this could turn the 
    tables on what looks good. More stands are the go for average 
    price winners.
  • BetonmeBetonme    217 posts
    Agree somewhat on the stands but they are running 3 different stand types.
    One based on NR, one based on discretionary, and the other based on how many lifetime wins.
    My personal opinion is they stick to the first two.
  • FrogFrog    115 posts
    Plus more of them , at least one a meeting.
    GP when on top of its game had 2 , country 
    front 2,100 mts and metro front 2,500mts,
    maybe an easy way to increase turnover.

    savethegame likes this post.

  • FrogFrog    115 posts
    Years ago the best 3 races stands.
    Thanks to A H and F K now mobiles.
    Freo cup, Hunter cup and Kilmore cups.
    Now days have odds on pops leading  all
    the way mobiles.
    Plus Inters and Miracle mile.

    savethegame likes this post.

  • Chopchop43Chopchop43    305 posts
    1 months figures isn't enough of a sample size either side of the argument you may sit on , let's see turnover figures in a year's time before we pass judgement
  • warrenrobinsonwarrenrobinson    262 posts
    Surely we understand the meaning of update.
  • Chopchop43Chopchop43    305 posts
    Well just like rwwa using statistics and the media to pump up the HWOE system updates without a substantial amount of data are really meaningless at this point of time
  • warrenrobinsonwarrenrobinson    262 posts
    HWOE updates?
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