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Ascot Preview, 3rd Dec 2016
West Australian Racing
R1. Amelia Park Beef Handicap - Scott Embry
Just Act Natural looks extremely well placed to simply Just Lead and Win. From barrier 1 he has the gate speed to hold up and with Mr African likely to lumber across from barrier 10 and sit outside him they control the tempo and he gets a very good chance of a first-up victory. Red Paddy looks as though he will find the position leader's back and can pounce late off a soft run. His trial was very good and in typical Simon Miller fashion trialled without blinkers which will be worn raceday. On Trend is undefeated first-up but mainly has Belmont Park form and 1200m form. Just concerned he will get too far out of his ground and I have a fair few questionmarks over some of his formlines.
3. JUST ACT NATURAL - 8. RED PADDY (NZ) - 1. ON TREND
SUGGESTED BET - 3. JUST ACT NATURAL $100
Just Act Natural looks extremely well placed to simply Just Lead and Win. From barrier 1 he has the gate speed to hold up and with Mr African likely to lumber across from barrier 10 and sit outside him they control the tempo and he gets a very good chance of a first-up victory. Red Paddy looks as though he will find the position leader's back and can pounce late off a soft run. His trial was very good and in typical Simon Miller fashion trialled without blinkers which will be worn raceday. On Trend is undefeated first-up but mainly has Belmont Park form and 1200m form. Just concerned he will get too far out of his ground and I have a fair few questionmarks over some of his formlines.
3. JUST ACT NATURAL - 8. RED PADDY (NZ) - 1. ON TREND
SUGGESTED BET - 3. JUST ACT NATURAL $100
+1 -1
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Comments
This looks a very evenly graded bunch of 3 year olds and I am going for the best value of the winning chances in Spangled Impact. Willing to put a line through last preparation and say that she is simply an Ascot only proposition. Back to Ascot I think we will see a different horse and all her 2 year old form around Whispering Brook is easily strong enough to win this race. Dainty Tess should appreciate the weight relief afforded to her care of Jordan Turner's 1.5kg claim. She is drawn awkwardly but is versatile enough to position up or be ridden with cover. Badge of Courage looks the likely leader on paper with Leitfaden sitting on his back. Those 4 are the winning chances in my opinion, Fairie Whisper will need to be very good from barrier 10 to win.
3. SPANGLED IMPACT - 1. DAINTY TESS - 7. BADGE OF COURAGE
Taking a stance against The Forgotten One here from barrier 11, carrying 59kg after the claim of apprentice Clint Johnson-Porter. Ben Paterson and team Durrant/Miller have found the key to the Blackfriars 5 year old in recent times, however, he rises sharply in weight and is drawn very awkwardly. Unless CJP can weave some magic early and find a position one off the fence The Forgotten One looks destined to be three wide throughout or dragged back to last in a race where Fathoms of Gold is likely to string the field out he will have a lot of ground to make up and lumping that big weight won't help. I have settled on three horses who can all be backed to beat the favourite in Magic Rocket, off a 7 day back up from a fast finishing sixth; Fathoms of Gold, who should run them along out in front and make it a genuine staying test; Our Mate Al, who should impove sharply at his second start over a distance this preparation. Willing to risk Mosseratti who is having his first test at a trip.
4. MAGIC ROCKET - 3. FATHOMS OF GOLD - 6. OUR MATE AL
SUGGESTED BET - 4. MAGIC ROCKET $50 x $50
Caipirinha is having her final hit out for this preparation and drawn barrier 7 with some noted speed horses underneath her it will make things very interesting. She has shown before that she is more than capable of seeing out the trip when run down late in the Burgess Queen by talented filly Ellicazoom but this could be an intriguing test of tactics. Rich Red always rolls forward to race on speed and Lusaha drawn in barrier 2 is expected to make Caipirinha work for the lead and then take a sit. This opens up the possibility of Azzopardi finally taking a sit on Caiprinha and allowing her to test her turn of foot late. Not a race I am willing to gamble in because I think Caipirnha will prove too strong but is well under a quote I could consider taking. Stored Energy is an attractive places proposition from barrier 1 and Chin Strap gets to a trip most have been waiting a long, long time for.
8. CAIPIRINHA - 9. STORED ENERGY - 3. LUSAHA
This is easily the hardest race on the card and the winner looks very well hidden on paper. I wouldn't bet in this race with stolen money but from a tipping perspective I have settled on Viking Forrest. Ran an exceptionally quick final 600m when finding traffic behind Chinetti and Furious Dame last start and should get an economic run one off the fence for new rider Lucas Camilleri. Chinetti broke a long injury caused drought and can definitely go on with it. Expecting Delicate Miss and Secret Nova to kick up underneath him but as we saw last start with Furious Dame, it will take a lot of early speed to keep him out because he is simply awesome out of the gates. Roger the Roman won a much weaker race than this last start but retains the services of one of Australia's best in Damien Oliver. Happy to risk Volkoff because while there is no doubt she is the class mare of the field, barrier 1 is a huge concern. Do not like get-back types from the inside gate. It is a recipe for traffic and nightmares.
11. VIKING FORREST - 5. CHINETTI - 7. ROGER THE ROMAN
Backing 2 horses in the opening leg of the quaddie with Coming Back and Our Finest Moment getting the nod from me. Coming Back has an awkward barrier and a lot of weight, even after the claim for Randolf Tan but his efforts in both the Colonel Reeves over 1100m and the Carbine Club over 1400m were simply too good to ignore. Has returned a different horse this preparation and Randy Tan has already won aboard the galloper this preparation. If he can get a nice tow into the race in the three wide train or straighten for home within 3 lengths of the leader then he can zap them. The other horse I am backing and the one I am marking as the danger is Our Finest Moment. First-up run behind State Solicitor beaten 2.3 lengths was excellent and second-up at 1400m with Damien Oliver in the saddle looks perfect. There is a lack of speed in the race with Wobbegong likely to take it up and Our Finest Moment sitting to his outside, they control the race and Our Finest Moment will go close. Dendee was backed as if unbeatable first-up and duly saluted when crunched from $7 into $4.40. Barrier 1 is a slight concern and realistically I question whether that race was a true 72+ quality event but she must be respected.
2. COMING BACK - 5. OUR FINEST MOMENT - 4. DENDEE
Wink and a Nod spent a very long time as the highest rated mare in Western Australia while Perfect Reflection was over east and in the paddock and only 4 starts ago was rated a metro 105. She has since dropped 6 ratings points but certainly hasn't lost any fans. Her effort two starts ago lumping 60kg as a 7 year old mare over 1400m only beaten 2.9 lengths by Heart Starter was enormous and given a months freshen up dropping back to mares grade can certainly run a big race. I think she is way over the odds at $16 and should be much closer to $10 or even single figures. Douglas Whyte rides for Justin Warwick and the last time those two combined they produced Black Tycoon to a Listed victory before he went on to win the Perth Cup. Wink and a Nod is coming to the end of her racing career but ridden three wide with cover can definitely grab herself another black type placing. Even WA blind society would be tipping Cosmic Storm based on her last start effort, you could not miss it. Halldora is thrown into this race as a 3 year old and carries 50kg, from a gun draw could give some cheek.
1. WINK AND A NOD - 3. COSMIC STORM - 16. HALLDORA
SUGGESTED BET - 1. WINK AND A NOD $25 x $75
There is nothing that can sway me from the belief that Scales of Justice is a huge chance of going back to back and winning the Group 1 Railway Stakes, Kingston Town double. His sectionals were a lot stronger than many are suggesting and the race itself was run at a genuine gallop. Each sectional was slightly quicker than the previous and Scales of Justice simply ran rivals into the ground over a mile. Barrier 16 is no concern whatsoever because as a big striding galloper he can gradually work forwards from the outside and avoid the hustle and bustle of early positioning when the field jumps from the 1800m effectively straight onto a corner. Scales of Justice should stride forwards and find the front at about the 1400m marker and from there Douglas Whyte is in control again. Weight for Age conditions are obviously against him but I am confident the horse can both carry weight and run the distance. $6 is overs and I anticipate he will jump closer to the $5 mark. Perfect Reflection is WA's glamour mare and everything points to her running a huge race. Won this race last year carrying 50kg and can easily salute again. Disposition is one that can improve sharply. Ran the fastest final 600m in the Railway Stakes, draws a barrier and has blinkers added to race gear for the first time inh is career. Expecting him to beat home more than beat him home. Kawi is the obvious Weight for Age horse and this is clearly the most suitable race he has contested in Australia to date.
10. SCALES OF JUSTICE - 16. PERFECT REFLECTION - 5. DISPOSITION
SUGGESTED BET - 10. SCALES OF JUSTICE $50 x $50
Just like race 6 there is no suggest bet because I will be backing 2 horses: Jetoomy and Point. I have a massive opinion of Jetoomy and am excited to see him return after a bit of time away from the track. Both these horses are in their second preparation for big WA yards. Jetoomy returning at his second preparation for JT Warwick to be ridden by Douglas Whyte and Point, returning for his second WA prep with Grant & Alana Williams to be ridden by W.Pike. Both horses are currently $8 and I will be investing on both. I have those two gallopers clearly on top of the rest of the field and will happily open the wallet to back both. The myriad of gear chances on Point suggest that the stable learnt a lot about him in the last preparation and we will see a different galloper this campaign, while Jetoomy looked as though he was fighting bravely out of his weight division last campaign and should return bigger and better. Slick Mover is one who could be a blowout hope for wider quaddie participants and those like Callum Crob" Robson who would love to celebrate his 21st birthday with a 'juicy roughie'. Good luck to all punters at the final day of the WA Masters and make sure you get around the PTT Tipping Competition. ""ust like race 6 there is no suggest bet because I will be backing 2 horses: Jetoomy and Point. I have a massive opinion of Jetoomy and am excited to see him return after a bit of time away from the tra"
8. JETOOMY - 9. POINT (NZ) - 1. SLICK TALKER
Good to see Bob winning a few races at last.... 8-}
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:))
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pity though, i was hoping weir would never get another winner ever, anywhere.
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Don't be influenced by the free grog across the bar. !!!
Surely you can find about 2 inches by one more crack of the whip and pushing the horses head down. But hey I am not a jockey.
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can't wait to see the report.
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