Full Belmont Preview 29th July

PerthTurfTalk · July 2017

Race 1 - Punter's Pet

With 6-15mm of rain forecast for both Friday and Saturday it is likely we will see the Belmont track somewhere around the Soft6 mark. I've been horribly wrong before, but I'll allow for that anyway.

Teacher's Pet has gone up the rank outsider with all bookmakers in this field, but I have no hesitation putting her on top. This Frost Giant fillies last effort was huge when she was no better than 3 or 4 deep throughout and still gave a good kick on straightening. The appointment of the stronger jockey and better barrier draw should allow her to be ridden a little more aggressively and hopefully, closer to the speed. At around the $17 she looks well over the odds as an each way play.

Lob City looks to have found the right race while Honorfic is continually underrated by punters and will be the one coming hard late.

Selections

7 Teachers Pet
2 Lob City
1 Honorfic

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places Teachers Pet (7)

Race 2 - Pocket Aces

Jim Taylor looks to have a good hand in this 1000m scamper with More Aces improving dramatically second up. From barrier 1, you would suspect the plan will simple be to jump and run and as long as he can hold the front he should be difficult to get past. The horse named after Wayne Carey's off field antics 'Belter' should get the camp just off the speed and will appreciate the drop to 54kg's.

I'm not quite willing to forgive Atacama Sky, but it would not surprise me to see a complete form reversal in the space of 7 days. Bells Tower is the only one of the 7 I am happy putting a line through (get on).

Selections

2 More Aces
7 Belter
1 Agarchar Cruz

Suggested Bet: 60 wins More Aces (2)

Race 3 - A Johnny Williamson Classic

I've just googled 'Rosewood Hill' to learn it is a John Williamson classic. A very fitting line in the song goes: 'They said we'd fetch a million dollars, for our little Rosewood Hill'. While the million might currently look ambitious, this should add another $36,000 to the tally. At the $1.50 from the widest gate, I won't be making her a suggested bet as she will have to come from last. Always a risk if she doesn't get the right cart up.

I'd like to see Respondent ridden with a sit and I think he will here. His last 3 starts he has raced without cover and I don't think it his go. He could be one for the exotics.

Selections

4 Rosewood Hill
3 Respondent
2 North Ridge

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 4 - Lacking Conviction

High Conviction returned in a blaze of glory after a year off racing, before going from punters pal to nemesis with an erratic display second up. The lugging bit has been fitted to attempt to rectify that problem. If this Snitzel filly is on her best behaviour then she should be winning this with a degree of comfortability. After seeing her display last week, I won't be hopping in at the $2.

Kensington Abbey is a horse I have a lot of time for. Some of her wins have been phenomenal when parked wide and seemingly never in the race. Being first up for a small yard does makes her a very speculative investment, though Arthur Mortimer does know how to get his horses fit. She won first up last campaign in a 72+ and besides High Conviction, this is no harder. She will go around a very big price.

Selections

11 High Conviction
6 Kensington Abbey
1 Helm's Gate

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 30 places Kensington Abbey (6)

Race 5 - Bob's Your Owner

Bob Peters looks to have another exciting youngster here in Royal Command. If he is successful, I can't wait for the enthusiasm he brings to his post race interviews. The Andy Murray of WA racing. She should settle midfield from the draw, though navigating the rise in class does pose a few question marks. It will be interesting to see how she handles it. The form from her last win doesn't look overly strong with no horses behind her going on to run a place since. But, you can only beat what is in front of you.

Get Over It was brilliant first up before running out of condition late. This is a class drop on that effort and she should strip fitter, though from gate 11 she will probably be coming from a long way back. Atlanta Blue is flying and can go on with it after a very strong win. Along with General Husson, they look the four main players in this.

Selections

9 Royal Command
1 Atlanta Blue
8 Get Over It

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 6 - Race Of The Day

While this isn't the feature, I really feel this is the most intriguing event of the day. If Steve Wolfe has Minus Looks nicely freshened up after a failed Guineas tilt, the Belmont Park specialist should be very hard to hold out from the good draw. You'd, expect him to take the trail from A Knight Of Pro. The big question mark is exactly how well the Wolfe yard has him ticking along.

I don't think Friaresque or Royal Missile are suited at the drop back to 1300m and both will probably be giving a few smart gallopers a bit too much of a head start. Rogan Scent only won a maiden last start, but her effort against Salorsci three starts back showed this level is not beyond her. Really like the appointment of the CJP, which sees her carry only 52.5kg's from a good alley. Think the winner will come from those two and at $7 (Minus Looks) and $10 (Rogan Scent), I am happy having a small win bet on both.

Selections

2 Minus Looks
10 Rogan Scent
5 Royal Missile

Suggested Bet: 30 wins Minus Looks (2). 20 wins Rogan Scent (10).

Race 7 - Fresh As A Dezzie

The only blemish on Dezzie's Dream first up card came at her very first career start in New Zealand. From there, Colin Barnett traded her for Luke Ronchi and Western Australia has been all the better for it. I do not think she is the sharpest of the cerise and white team, but I do think she is a quality sprinter. Every attempt to get her out to 1400m or beyond has ended poorly and I think she will be kept purely to sprinting assignments this campaign. She recently trialled brilliantly and has drawn the inside gate. She ticks a lot of boxes. The $8.50 on offer looks like a huge each way price.

Profit Street will appreciate the big weight drop and looks the biggest danger. It is highly likely Pike was offered both mounts which is another plus despite his allegiances to Bob Peters.

First Among Equals will improve second up, but he is currently a shorter price than he was first up. Meteoroid, Profit Street & Dezzie's Dream are all added to this field from that run. I suspect he might start closer to the $3.50 mark. He had every conceivable chance first up.

Selections

3 Dezzies Dream
8 Profit Street
1 First Among Equals

Suggested Bet: 50 wins and 50 places Dezzie's Dream (3)

Race 8 - Quaddie = Field

If you're having a rough old day on the punt and are relying on the last to get out, then I dare say you are f... in trouble. Double Digit is currently the second emergency and regular jockey Alan Kennedy is booked elsewhere, but if this Demerit gelding does get a run, he should go close. He dropped back to 1400m last start when he absolutely savaged the line midweek and was something beaten. He is back to the mile here.

From there it is a complete lottery. By Decree and Gomer Wipple have drawn complete opposite sides of the track but are both holding form well.

If you are prone to a last race 'go' after a few too many frothies then go sober for the day as it will end poorly.

Selections

18 Double Digit
4 Gomer Wipple
5 By Decree

Suggested Bet: No bet

Gray · July 2017

Am I being cheeky by adding this info here?? I just cannot see the point of making a 2nd thread for Saturdays.

Scott’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on July 28, 2017 | Posted by Scott Embry

Scott Embry’s Preview

Race 1

SNITZATUNE has trialed well for a youngster stepping out over 1400m and off a soft run could give cheek on debut. LOB CITY has form alongside Salubrious which should account for most of these. ASCOT GOLD leads or box seats. HONORFIC could be a risk back in trip.

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – SNITZATUNE EACHWAY

Race 2

POP HERO is the noted wet track specialist in the field. Down sharply in weight he will come from midfield with a wet sail. MORE ACES improved sharply second up and back to 1000m looks awfully hard to catch. TWO SILVER TREES should get a gun run from the alley. LOCKROY was strong in the Beaufine.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 8 – 3

Suggested Bet – POP HERO EACHWAY

Race 3

ROSEWOOD HILL picks herself on current form. Only needs to reproduce recent runs to win. THE FORGOTTEN ONE was excellent first-up and flat second-up. Forgiving him. NORTH RIDGE should slide forwards into a prominent position. SHINTA MANI will improve with a sit.

Numbers: 4 – 9 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet – ROSEWOOD HILL WIN

Race 4

HELMS GATE has produced strong form lines all preparation, tipping him in a mini boil-over. HIGH CONVICTION went under as a well supported favorite, if she can reproduce her best she’ll take a stack of beating. SPECIAL DELIVERY should box seat from his gun draw. SHOWY CHLOE goes back and charges home.

Numbers: 1 – 11 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet – HELMS GATE EACHWAY

SuperPick - Race 4 No. 1 HELMS GATE - Money Back – Run 2nd

Race 5

ROYAL COMMAND could be one of Bob Peter’s better youngsters. He is lightly raced and looks full of potential. GET OVER IT ran a cracker first-up from a long absence in a strong form race. ATLANTA BLUE should sit leaders back and go close again. DIA DE LA RAZA backs up from Wednesday and has claims.

Numbers: 9 – 8 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet – ROYAL COMMAND WIN

Race 6

MINUS LOOKS will be very dangerous from leader’s back with a month between runs. Goes gangbusters at Belmont Park fresh. A KNIGHT OF PRO was extraordinarily strong off a hot tempo. That looks a good form race. GUNNAGO could lob a perfect spot just behind the leaders. FRIARESQUE may be looking for further now.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet – MINUS LOOKS EACHWAY

Race 7

PRETENTIOUS CHANT is racing very well and gets a genuine crack at a Listed win. FIRST AMONG EQUALS was super in the Beaufine under the enormous weight, he goes close again. PROFIT STREET drops sharply in weight and is all class. DEZZIES DREAM is drawn soft and has a brilliant first-up record.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 8 – 3

Suggested Bet – PRETENTIOUS CHANT EACHWAY

Race 8

BY DECREE should get an identical run to when she won last start. Consistent as they come and loves the rain. GOMER WIPPLE will do it tough from the gate but he is flying. ANVIL GREEN was never given a chance last start when continuously shuffled back in running. JASPARA should enjoy run of the race.

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – BY DECREE WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

1,7,8,9

1,2,4,5,6

1,2,3,7,8

1,4,5.

Sticks · July 2017

Gray · July 2017

Ive tipped Teachers Pet as an outsider tip each start since coming back from a spell, was a bit disappointing last start so will romp in this week. Not sure wet weather will do favours though but i really believe has ability.

Sticks · July 2017

How are horses like fontaine's war and harlem moon allowed to come up and run in a 78+?? fontaine's war has had 24 starts without a place... at least harlem moon has won a race.... but has a worse rating ???? should be running in leinster and no where else. Will cause more harm then good in a race like this

RIO · July 2017

got get full betting field sticks, so those whingers on PTT don't give them a hard time!!!!! ;-)

TheDiva · July 2017

Sticks said:
How are horses like fontaine's war and harlem moon allowed to come up and run in a 78+?? fontaine's war has had 24 starts without a place... at least harlem moon has won a race.... but has a worse rating ???? should be running in leinster and no where else. Will cause more harm then good in a race like this

huge early move on Fontaines $1001 into $101... now back to $501.

Expect more money for it

8-}

Sticks · July 2017

TheDiva said:

Sticks said:
How are horses like fontaine's war and harlem moon allowed to come up and run in a 78+?? fontaine's war has had 24 starts without a place... at least harlem moon has won a race.... but has a worse rating ???? should be running in leinster and no where else. Will cause more harm then good in a race like this
huge early move on Fontaines $1001 into $101... now back to $501.
Expect more money for it
8-}

I think that was @OliversTwist having 94c on the win. Not even joking !!

psycho · July 2017

Sticks said:
How are horses like fontaine's war and harlem moon allowed to come up and run in a 78+?? fontaine's war has had 24 starts without a place... at least harlem moon has won a race.... but has a worse rating ???? should be running in leinster and no where else. Will cause more harm then good in a race like this

Two horses with BM ratings of 46 and 48 should NOT be allowed to race at a prime Saturday meeting EVER

thefalcon · July 2017

^^^ agree 100%, lets hope they lob in last places and stay there.

jum · July 2017

VERY surprised our own Wakaha Kid is not nominated for tomorrow :-j

OliversTwist · July 2017

Best 94c I've ever spent too @Sticks :)
If they had a market for the clerk of the course to beat home fontaine's War I'd open my wallet

Sticks · July 2017

get in early for tomorrow, hopefully not too much rain! Liking a lot of the shorties to get beat tomorrow!

1) lob city lay of the day. Currently 2.15. Will be backing honorfic and ascot gold

2) more aces

4) high conviction at 2.2 is too short. Helm's gate each way all day!

5) spewing atlanta blue is scratched - but royal command is still a big lay (currently $2). Dia de la raza / get over it

6) minus looks / a knight of pro. Very confident the winner will come from these 2. Classes above the rest

7) FAE very hard to beat. Profit street should go well

8) Depends on final fields - but all too much each way looks a good bet!

Best bet (at this stage)

2) more aces

4) helm's gate each way

RIO · July 2017

Bogenhuber to start her Saturday riding with a winner in the listed race.

rooboy · July 2017

Miller was keen about it this morning mate!

RIO · July 2017

Its got pace, it will muster across without needing to lead and it is weighted as good as anything in the race. The top 2 are there to be beaten and tomorrow a front runner with a 7kg advantage may just do it..

EDIT....Is that a warning that hes given it the kiss of death @rooboy ???
haha

rooboy · July 2017

Just a stupid Question.

Why would you have Firm and Synthetic in the form guide?

Its about as useful as having Bitumen and Road Base.!

8-}

Thumper · July 2017

Agree Lob City looks under the odds. I am following the 2 tipsters and having something on Snitzatune and Teachers Pet.

Thumper · July 2017

Gray said:
Ive tipped Teachers Pet as an outsider tip each start since coming back from a spell, was a bit disappointing last start so will romp in this week. Not sure wet weather will do favours though but i really believe has ability.

What race were you watching? An excellent run last time out which was also on a soft track

Jell · July 2017

A couple EW I like tomorrow:

R4 - Kensington Abbey first up at big odds. It was a great win first up last prep and then she raced in harder after that win. This race is no harder, only downside is has to carry an extra 6.5kg on that effort.

Also an interesting runner in this race, Go Dutch. 8 yo from Hong Kong, over 700k in prize money and last run, ran 3rd in a 80 rated race at Happy Valley. 3 trials so far, blinkers on and has been Gelded. Could be a class above them perhaps at good odds?

R5 - Dia De La Raza EW, big fan of horses on the quick back-up. The penny has finally dropped with him and he looks up to this.

H-BOMBER · July 2017

rooboy said:
Miller was keen about it this morning mate!

Cue @dungy quip :P

Dale · July 2017

ive had a good 2 months off the punt but am back today... A few decent bets, but i have already collected on my first by having 20 on phil taylor @8 in the darts this morning. I guess its fitting as a dart is how i do the form in Perth these days. Im on kensington abbey to beat the fav in R4 and a sneaky watch on jazari in R6 in quinellas and tri's... Hopefully i can snag 1 or 2 today and collect at least ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY!!!!!!!

TheDiva · July 2017

OliversTwist said:
Best 94c I've ever spent too @Sticks :)
If they had a market for the clerk of the course to beat home fontaine's War I'd open my wallet

the ambulance has got it covered.

Lendmefifty · July 2017

Having a warm up for the tipping comp. I think this meeting is pretty hard to tip and map but here goes: (I'm not betting, so take them with a grain of salt)

R1 No. 8 EW 1,2,4,8 Tri and Quartet

R2 No. 2 W 2 from 4,5,8 Tri

R3 No. 2 W

R4 10,11 - 5,6,7,8,10,11 - S2 Tri Will be watching War Ksar very keenly and may have a bet on it next start.

R5. No. 2 EW and No. 5 W

R6 No. 11 W/P 2:7

R7 No. 7 W/P 2:7

R8 No. 8 W but big watch on 15 Makaties Keeper in the Get Out Stakes. If this horse parades well, I may punt on it but at this stage I'm keeping my money in the pocket.

dannybrennan · July 2017

BELMONT (HEAVY 8)

RACE 1 LOB CITY / HONORFIC/UNCLE CON

RACE 2 POP HERO

RACE 3 ROSEWOOD HILL/THE FORGOTTEN ONE

RACE 4 HIGH CONVICTION

RACE 5 ROYAL COMMAND/DIA DE LA RAZA

RACE 6 ROGAN SCENT/MINUS LOOKS/KNIGHT OF PRO

RACE 7 FIRST AMOUNG EQUALS/PROFIT STREET

RACE 8 GOMBER WIMPLE/BY DECREE/ROMELO

RIO · July 2017

Practicing for the tipping comp

R1 #1 Honorfic

R2 #8 Two Silver Trees

R3 #4 Rosewood Hill

R4 #3 Showy Chloey

R5 #8 Get Over It..Best Bet

R6 #11 Rogan Scent

R7 #5 Meteroid

R8 #12 Just Elated

trevydards · July 2017

Pretty keen Showy Chloe in race 4. Loves it wet and last run got smashed in the straight. If she gets clear running should be flying home $12/$3 is a good each way bet.

Chelsea · July 2017

Really like 2 silver trees in race 2

RIO · July 2017

Chelsea said:
Really like 2 silver trees in race 2

3 or 4 week break is the key yo this horse..taken a while to work out but going well....Watch it flop now that i sprouted it before the race!!!!

RIO · July 2017

RIO said:

Chelsea said:
Really like 2 silver trees in race 2
3 or 4 week break is the key yo this horse..taken a while to work out but going well....Watch it flop now that i sprouted it before the race!!!!

This is no slur on Tayla Stone..Good young apprentice and improving regularly. But gee i wish they could ride them a bit stronger to the line...Glad i went e/w

Jell · July 2017

Sticks said:
How are horses like fontaine's war and harlem moon allowed to come up and run in a 78+?? fontaine's war has had 24 starts without a place... at least harlem moon has won a race.... but has a worse rating ???? should be running in leinster and no where else. Will cause more harm then good in a race like this

Apparently Race 4 has been delayed to allow for Fontaine's War and Harlem Moon to finish the race :)) :)) =)) =))

G'day Punter!

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Full Belmont Preview 29th July

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Scott’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Scott Embry’s Preview

Race 1

Race 2

Race 3

Race 4

SuperPick - Race 4 No. 1 HELMS GATE - Money Back – Run 2nd

Race 5

Race 6

Race 7

Race 8

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)