G'day Punter!

Sign In Register

In this Discussion

Who's Online

0 Members & 19 Non Members

Narrogin 17-2-19

West Australian Racing
RodentRodent    7,038 posts
West Australian Racing
Jim Taylor too good. The shorty flops and they win with the stablemate at big odds.
+1 -1

Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

Comments

  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    @Ridersonthestorm33 ^^^ 

    the old switcheroo... we remember who used to be the master at that old trick over east

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited February 2019
    Did you notice in the Winx race - with all the stablemates who ran 3rd and 4th - Egg Tart and Patrick Erin - his two longest priced runners! Can't believe that first four paid $224.40 - it's floored me.

    Back to Jim Taylor - very few have a rule of thumb with but he's a trainer you practically need to always include. When takes them to Narrogin its their last hurrah.

    The stablemate situation - it's an old one - but it's a good one.

    +1 -1
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,249 posts
    Golgotha for me in the Cup
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited February 2019
    Have to stick to the theory ( have a look at Yogi and Venguer Masque in Melbourne recently ).

    Doesn't always work out of course, but staying with the system and going the top weight Brothers Keeper. Small the win ($2) and huge the place ($10) b-(
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited February 2019
    Tab fixed odds back on board, still at withering heights % wise though.

    Non competitive tote ( it's gone downhill - even Tabcorp admit that ) and corporates ( look at Racing.Com when they have the market % down the bottom of screen ) that when on their way to the barrier are still set at 120-130%.
    +1 -1
  • JellJell    1,201 posts
    edited February 2019
    Witness In Court for me, should be suited to the long Narrogin straight since he's the kind of horse that likes to wind up a long way from home.

    Surely it's a mistake that he opened 26's on TABtouch? If not then someone royally screwed up, kudos to anyone that got on at that price $-)
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    Just noticed still has a message that "fixed odds unavailable" so perhaps not up and running after all.
    +1 -1
  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    Ridersonthestorm33 said:

    Have to stick to the theory ( have a look at Yogi and Venguer Masque in Melbourne recently ).

    Doesn't always work out of course, but staying with the system and going the top weight Brothers Keeper. Small the win ($2) and huge the place ($10) b-(

    Yogi and more so Venguer Masque are class horses though, VM ran in the Melb cup and the lead ups last year... a horse like VM you can justify it carrying 60kg in the field it won in on saturday but Brothers Keeper in today's even field carry 60kg? no disrespect but he's no world beater 
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited February 2019
    Too true Hash hence the $2 by $10.
    The examples with Yogi and Venguer Masque - both were around $8 - $10 - and exactly what your saying is correct - they were good chances at the weights despite carrying number one saddlecloths considering the quality of horses they've competed against.

    Anybody who has punted awhile and say over 45 years of age must see that in comparison to "yesterday" horses like Yogi and Venguer Masque are thrown in at the weights - when running in those types of events.
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited February 2019
    It's only theory, ( and just the stayer type of events ) but apart from Yogi and Venguer Masque recently, we have the top weighted Who Shot The Barman win the Sydney Cup at about 16/1, an "out of form" Star Exhibit very close to top weight win the Perth Cup and the other top weight Gatting was terrific.

    There was a horse just recently in Adelaide running at Gawler - Olympic Academy carried 64kgs - it's run against quality Sydney stayers - bolted in.

    Good honest run Brothers Keeper - thought had the chocolates - beaten by the lightweight haha.
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited February 2019
    Sort of what I'm saying too is that in a Melbourne Cup horses like Yogi ( he just missed a run ) and Venguer Masque there poorly in at the weights even though down the bottom of the scale - there running against the best in the world - those 2 are handy but nowhere near that quality however when they run in these weakish races you'll hear the media people say words to the effect of "tut tut too much weight" - like heck - it won't be the weight stopping them. It's more a case of if there right to go.

    Conversely in a Melbourne Cup - heard quite a few say Venguer Masque great lightweight chance but in my opinion no he isn't - he's poorly in.

    As a I say it's nowhere near a foolproof system. Will have to keep stats, but it happens often. Esperance Cup a small example - saddle cloth winning numbers were 1,2,3.
    Today Brothers Keeper and Witness In Court top two numbers - 2nd and 3rd. Just very small exampes.

    The whole theory though just rests on one thing - the top weighted horses in these type of races - but only in comparison to the 1970s through to the 1990s - are in so much better and conversely bottom weighted ones not so good.

    There was a Melbourne Cup whereby think ( before my time ) Rising Fast carried 63kgs and was beaten a nose by Toparoa carrying 44kgs!
    Will have to check the exact of what they carried but it was something like that.
    Today Rising Fast would have 58kgs or 59 max and Toparoa into the 50s - when considering only a nose between them... Rising Fast would beat Toparoa by 10 lengths - yet you'd still hear some go - yep good lightweight chance Toparoa.

    Only call it as I see it though.
    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    Somehow missed seeing the Albany Cup last week - the top three in the weights were Red Army, Prying Tom and The Big Show - got first and third there.

    Even in the 1400 metre plus races - can only just remember and been told about him - but there was a horse called Detonator he would be carrying 64-65kgs and winning whilst the bottom weights carried 46 and 48kgs.

    Overall today think top weighted horses are in much better at the weights from Narrogin Cups to Group One handicaps. Doesn't mean their going to win though.

    However how would a Detonator go today with a much more compressed weight scale ? He'd be invincible.
    +1 -1
  • loose_gooseloose_goose    2,069 posts
    Was at Cup today, well run by the Narrogin Club, Danny Miller was special guest of club, and involved in presentations & think got some award as well. Great ride by S.Altieri to win the Cup with an old Peters horse

    Desperado, squid69, Ridersonthestorm33, jum likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • detonatordetonator    4,366 posts
    Ridersonthestorm33 said:

    Somehow missed seeing the Albany Cup last week - the top three in the weights were Red Army, Prying Tom and The Big Show - got first and third there.

    Even in the 1400 metre plus races - can only just remember and been told about him - but there was a horse called Detonator he would be carrying 64-65kgs and winning whilst the bottom weights carried 46 and 48kgs.

    Overall today think top weighted horses are in much better at the weights from Narrogin Cups to Group One handicaps. Doesn't mean their going to win though.

    However how would a Detonator go today with a much more compressed weight scale ? He'd be invincible.


    I would have to change my name to Winx ;)

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited February 2019
    Haha and what changed things for me in regards to weights and got me thinking was a certain Railway Stakes winner - his second one - remember saying to a fellow "well one horse you can put a line straight through is Luckygray it's got no chance" and he agreed with a comment along the lines of "yep too much weight for a start" that got me later grabbing the Bible - no not the good bible - something better - The Millers Guide - and delved back in time looking at weights from the past - he wasn't treated badly at all in fact was in extremely well.

    Didn't back - still didn't think could win haha - but made me sit up and realise - if you can get a top weight into form there in very well at the weights. ( Compared to the past ).

    No better example than Star Exhibit - past Perth Cup winner - A Group One Doomben Cup place getter - he was fair dinkum thrown in - look at how little weight a horse like Brothers Keeper received from him.

    The secret is to have them right on the day and Star Exhibit was as was Sydney Cup top weight Who Shot The Barman he was rough too - for some reason they often are.

    thefalcon likes this post.

    +1 -1
  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    7,761 posts
    Jell said:

    Witness In Court for me, should be suited to the long Narrogin 
    A short run in at Narrogin Jell
    +1 -1
Sign In or Register to comment.