G'day Punter!

In this Discussion

Who's Online

0 Members & 4 Non Members

Ascot Preview, March 30th

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts

Race 1 - Maiden Madness

A nurofen start to the day, with an absolute nightmare of a maiden to dissect. The only positive being it is an extremely competitive betting medium.

There should be a reasonable amount of speed on here with the awkwardly drawn Tovarich, Nerodio and Wakan Tanka all likely to want to race on top of the speed. Nerodio has impressed this campaign, but just cannot draw a hole with this being his third double digit gate from three career starts. Wins one very soon when the barrier bribe is transferred to the correct RWWA account.

I was one of many punters who gobbled up the early $4 for Megazone first up, when I thought it was a mega gift. The price was right, with him jumping at $2, but running more like a $22 pop. In his defence he did use a bit of fuel early and never raced truly. On previous race and trial form he’s worth forgiving. Blinkers go off from the good gate, so look for him to pop just in behind the speed.

Advocator is the other one which will be hard to miss for race and trial replay enthusiasts. Final two trials before her race debut were absolutely top shelf, but despite this she went around at $101. At worst should have ran a minor placing after finding trouble over the final 100m. She does appear a horse with some quirks. Oddly, despite the immaturity of the horse Kersley sticks with an apprentice jockey, albeit one of the states leading apprentices. Jade will need to be at her absolute best on a horse who jumps more like Dwayne Leverock than Lebron James.

Those two are around the $10 mark. Not going to suggest a play here, but those with itchy fingers could do a lot worse than betting around those two.

Selections

8 Megazone
15 Advocator
13 Ribbon Of Gold
7 Nerodio

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 2 - Second Stringers

With the states premiere two-year-old feature event only seven days away, we see the second string youngsters do battle for a nice little $41,300 winners cheque.

There does not appear to be much at all between most of these runners with luck in running and the best ride to play a major part. I liked the win of Pretty Style on debut, when she was able to find the outside of the speed. I don’t know if she possesses the early toe to do that here from the sticky gate. Whiting is riding well at the moment, so I will put her on top.

Marcee A Lady has finally drawn a gate and can race a lot handier. Is the one mapped to win, but I have not been convinced by her efforts to date, despite the awkward alleys. The Dig Deep form could look pretty good in a weeks time.

The Neville Parnham duo appear to have minimal between them. We’ll keep the powder dry again here.

Selections

6 Pretty Style
3 Warfish
1 Downforce
2 Pure Dynamite

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 3 - Weekend At Bernie’s

Can’t really see any reason to tip against Bernie Miller’s Cup Night here. He looked a pretty good thing first up with luck and Carbery obliged with a ten out of ten ride. If he’s able to emulate anywhere that type of performance in the saddle, then he will win again.

Really did hold them strongly to the line and while Zetorio does draw the inside alley, meaning he won’t have to make the same sustained run around the field, I cannot see him turning the tables with even luck. It’s important to continue emphasising ‘with even luck’ for a horse who can do a few things wrong.

Henty Gal was a nice run and ride from the awkward gate a fortnight ago, but again they’ve drawn the river. From a speed map point of view, I can’t really see how she wins. Classic Pro is the biggest danger, coming off three huge runs against the older horses. Should have won at least one of those. Andrew Castle, fresh off a treble at Pingrup replaces Lisa Staples and she brings the ‘point of difference form’. Cristal Dane is one who will improve up to 1400m.

I do have a very high opinion of Cup Night and the $2.70 on offer is enough for me to get involved. One of a few shorties I like today.

Selections

2 Cup Night
6 Classic Pro
4 Zetorio
5 Cristal Dane

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Cup Night (2).

 

Race 4 - Night Turns To Knight

Going to tip the Night double, with Rebel Knight looking a standout in this restricted handicap.

Settled further back than they would have hoped a fortnight ago when a fast finishing third behind Yeah Bravo and Express Flirt, who both had the suck on speed runs. This race is no harder, with the only question mark being Rebel Knight’s ability to run out a strong 1800m. If he does, he wins. The 54.5kgs is a genuine luxury weight, being a three year old and Chris Parnham is a more than adequate replacement for Mitch Pateman who can’t ride at the 54.5.

Strong Heart is the horse who will give the rest of the field value. Haven’t been completely convinced by this Reset gelding to date, but when you get the Pike/Peters combo on an up and coming youngster from a good alley, they’ll always be well in the market. He can win, but the current quote is more a reflection of the silks he wears than what he has achieved, or promised to achieve in his career to date.

The value in the early markets is clearly with Bucktorio. Nearly $30 the win and $7 the drum is available for a horse who ran second to Bella’s Idol last time out and didn’t have much luck in the run. This field doesn’t have a huge amount of depth after Rebel Knight and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t run a top 5 race. The horse goes well for Shaun O’Donnell who retains the mount.

Beaucount goes around again, in what is becoming one of the worst managed horses in WA. A big win 16 starts ago when leading by half the track, has seen those tactics adopted wherever possible since without success. This horse actually has ability and can finish off a race. It’s probably time to ride it like a racehorse. From barrier 3, with some speed drawn out wide there is a chance it could be crossed and their hand may be forced.

Keen on Rebel Knight at around the $3 mark, though for roughie backers, the value definitely is around Bucktorio @ $27 best. We’ll have something on both.

Selections

10 Rebel Knight
7 Bucktorio
8 Laufey
16 Strong Heart

Suggested Bet: 60 wins Rebel Knight (10). 20 wins Bucktorio (7).

 

Race 5 - Race Of The Day

Molten, Diablerie, Little Fish, Regal Moon & Special Reward bring five differing and extremely intriguing form lines together in one of the better 64+ sprints you’ll see midweek. The winner would have deserved their cheque.

I question if Molten is going to be the same horse in WA when having to work around a bend (his two WA wins have been down the Pinjarra chute), while I think the barrier will catch up with Little Fish in a stronger field. That leaves us with three live chances.

Special Reward returns off a very hot trial, but we saw that last campaign when he never really returned to the highs expected from his two year old days. The blinkers are removed here suggesting he’ll be ridden with a degree of patience by Chris Parnham. Should settle in the first six and any type of betting move might be a big tell with this son of Demerit. Always wary about a horse who shows their best as a two year old but then has a failed campaign. A lot of horses peak young and never return the same. Until he shows something on the track, we’ll wait.

That leaves Diablerie who is the bullet proof galloper under Brock Lewthwaite. Barrier mannerisms have improved and breaking a long losing drought could see a little picket fence develop next to his name. From barrier 2, Pike should have him not far from the speed at all. I am going to put a mare I have a stack of time for on top and that is Regal Moon. Bob Peters sold this horse to Steele Casey at a dispersal sale and I really do believe Steele Casey has taken this horse to another level.

Mollie Clark rode him last campaign and it has probably been decided, that a horse who can do a little bit wrong out of the machine and drift back in her races might need a more experienced hoop. Shaun O’Donnell is an in-form adequate replacement with a recent trial being soft as butter. Will likely settle three or four back the fence which is never an easy spot to be, but with Diablerie, Special Reward also drawn inside gates, there could be runs appearing on one of their backs. If she sees clear room for the final 200m and isn’t 10 lengths off them she’ll smash the line.

$8.50 each way is enough for a horse who tends to be pretty strongly supported in her races. Will need a good steer.

Selections

10 Regal Moon
2 Diablerie
12 Special Reward
3 Little Fish

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Regal Moon (10).

 

Race 6 - Pym’s And Pateman

The barrier draw has not been overly kind to the Fernie’s in recent visits to Ascot, but this draw could not have been any better. Pym’s Royale was a brilliant winner three weeks ago, when making ground on a track that not many did. While this is a hefty step up in class, he drops serious weight and is drawn to park right over the speed. Looks extremely progressive.

While the barrier draw has favoured the Kalgoorlie visitor in his own alley, it has also assisted in putting his biggest rival out in the cheap seats, with Electric Light drawing 11. Pike is likely to try and follow Great Again across and get his back, but I don’t think Mitch will be too keen to let him in. The last time they met, Electric Light took the camp on Pym’s Royale who did all the bollocking work, defeating him by under a length. That was at the start of Electric Light’s winning run and Pym’s Royale now meets him 6kg’s better. Couple that with the barrier draw and current form he is in, the $3 on offer looks like a gift. Clearly my best bet of the day.

A cheeky watch on More Aces who is yet to lead comfortably this campaign. Is not a horse who can be ridden with a sit and with Saracino likely to look for cover in this event, the rail is wide open for Jason Brown to take advantage of and run them along. Nearly a year ago to the day, he won a race involving Belter, Lockroy, The Celt & Gee Boss. If he leads and runs them along he is the blowout.

Very keen Pym’s Royale and I suspect it won’t be missed in betting.

Selections

10 Pym’s Royale
11 More Aces
5 River Dance
7 Electric Light

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Pym’s Royale (10).

 

Race 7 - Pike’s Power

William Pike will be the first to admit he probably got it a little wrong with Regal Power a fortnight ago in the Roberts Stakes, when he was a touch too patient over the 1800m. When he got out late he absolutely monstered the line and I’d expect he will be a little more aggressive from the more favourable alley in an attempt to have him midfield at worst.

Platoon is the only logical danger from their last outing after finally hitting form third up from a spell. The win really was quite devastating and if Steve Parnham can find the right gaps from the inside alley, he can cause the upset again.

Only Cockney Crew looks capable of springing a real upset on the favoured two. Hyperspace isn’t entered here, which should allow Shaun O’Donnell to take this son of Maschino straight to the top and probably try and put a gap on the field before the bend. I expect he’ll get very tired late, but those catch me if you can tactics do have merit at Ascot.

Regal Power should just win this. Anywhere near even money is enough for me.

Selections

2 Regal Power
1 Platoon
4 Cockney Crew
2 Blackwood River

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Regal Power (2).

 

Race 8 - Pike’s Pick

On face value, it looked like an obvious choice for Pike to switch allegiances with his choice of the cerise and white runners, but apparently it was unsurprising to Bob Peters that Pike chose to stick with Adornment over Dark Choice. What makes this even more interesting is that the last two WA Oaks have BOTH been won by Chris Parnham on a Bob Peters horse which was not Pike’s first elect (Very Tempting & Special Alert). How’s that for a bit of Thursday trivia?

Adornment won the 1000 Guineas in a race run at a complete dawdle. It was not a real horse race and the win can’t really be measured properly. I felt her effort in the Natasha, despite drifting a long way back was only plain to the line with Assetro and Dark Choice’s chasing efforts far superior. I shouldn’t question the Wizard’s choices, but history is against him in this event.

Dark Choice still does a lot wrong, but if Chris Parnham can hold a spot midfield from the good gate and produce the same turn of foot she showed over the 2200m last time out, she looks hard to hold out.

Assetro has finally drawn a gate after being forced to settle a long way back in all lead up races. Could hold a spot in the first six and from there and does appear to be building towards this very nicely. She’s the one I am going to put on top with minimal confidence.

Jedaffair won at a nice quote in the Natasha and there is absolutely no reason why she can’t win again for Joey Azzopardi who postponed his Singapore stint for this ride. Ping Me Another would be a win for the battlers and if I am to go poorly this race, I hope she is the one to knock us off.

Not going to suggest a bet here, but really intrigued to see how this all plays out.

Selections

1 Assetro
11 Dark Choice
2 Jedaffair
6 Ping Me Another

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 9 - Eye Witness

9 of the 15 runners from this event, met a fortnight ago in a race you could nearly throw a blanket over them at the finish. I suspect this will again come down to the best ride and luck in the run to determine a winner from that bunch.

Touch Of Silver was arguably the best run of that lot after sitting three and four deep the trip, but still attacking the line. He’s ran big races all campaign without much luck. For a get back horse from the inside hole, he’ll need a Star Exhibit type effort from the Cups King, but that is not an impossibility. Arctic Stream was arguably the second best run of the race and should settle a lot handier from the better gate, while there is no reason Special Delivery can’t win again. While it was a pearler of a ride, the horse only did get out late and really attacked the line again. $9 each way is really tempting for a horse who owes many nothing.

I’m going to look a little further afield and tip one who didn’t do battle in that race a fortnight ago and that is Witness In Court. Effort in the Narrogin Cup (1900m) was huge when given no peace from the runner on it’s outside before they attacked the highly unsuitable 2400m on a leader bias track. This horse is an out and out miler, so the drop back to the mile looks ideal. Efforts before the Narrogin Cup were unlucky and showed the horse was building to peak form and fitness. There will be question marks on how the horse has handled a potential gut buster over 2400m, and the drop back to 1600m but I really do think this horse is capable of finishing over the top of these. Will be a big, big quote.

Alan Kennedy cannot try and ride him cute, with his strength being a sustained run down the outside of the track. He’s a momentum horse, not an acceleration runner.

A watch on No Say In It who was set an almighty task in the Bunbury Cup. His run before that was phenomenal, while Midnight Sky deserves favouritism. Pike will save her for the one late run and we know what tends to happen in the last…

Very happy sticking with the value and point of difference runner in the last in Witness In Court. He’s currently $35 - I wouldn’t be surprised to see him jump at upwards of $50 on betfair.

Selections

12 Witness In Court
8 Touch Of Silver
2 Special Delivery
9 Midnight Sky

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Witness In Court (12).
  
+1 -1

rooboy likes this post.

Comments

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,494 posts
    Ive been banging on about using the top 4 selections in the early and late quaddies from our man and how the results have been fantastic. Far be it for me to have backed them but here is the last month of outlays and quaddie results since ive been noticing this

    Date Outlay Result/outcome
    2/3/19 256 $11865/win
    2/3/19 256 $90.10/loss
    9/3/19 256 $864.30/win
    9/3/19 256 $11327/win
    16/3/19 256 $5123/loss
    16/3/19 256 $7830/win
    23/3/19 256 $2197/win
    23/3/19 256 $4403/loss

    Totals
    $2048 $34083.30

    Profit a staggering $32035.30 in the last 4 weeks

    Could this week throw up some more results??

    Chris, Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • hashhash    6,443 posts
    murphy's law says this week throws up 4 donuts 

    H-BOMBER, thefalcon likes this post.

  • jumjum    2,622 posts
    edited March 30
    hash said:

    murphy's law says this week throws up 4 donuts 



    Will now
    X_X

    I've put these numbers on for 40% 

    Courtesy of Markovinas tip last night on the trots thread that paid $21

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

  • JellJell    994 posts
    I fancy a few today at juicy odds.

    R4: Bucktorio & Make Mine Champers
    R5: Star Glitter (small spec bet each way).
    R9: Special Delivery & Witness In Court
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,494 posts
    How did Beaucount only pay 4.60? Have I missed something obvious?
  • hashhash    6,443 posts
    LATE SCR of Rebel Knight 
  • paraleticparaletic    3,232 posts
    Was backed overnight from $17s into 5
  • thefalconthefalcon    16,016 posts
    row row row your boat ……... :-B

    jum likes this post.

  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,041 posts
    That fall in the Oaks looked horrible
  • sonnysonny    619 posts
    Any fall is horrible..
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,494 posts
    De ja vu for durrant with Jewelled years ago
  • spinkingspinking    2,235 posts
    Any update on the jock
  • hashhash    6,443 posts
    fractured T12 vertabrae, unsure how long but he's on the sidelines for some time 
  • spinkingspinking    2,235 posts
    Unfortunate He was riding super
  • paraleticparaletic    3,232 posts
    edited March 31
    Once again disgraceful comments on social media from animal activists towards Mitch. Complete and utter fuckwits that need to be wiped out.

    spinking, jum likes this post.

  • TheDivaTheDiva    11,742 posts
    Will we ever get a replay of the race or will it be a blackout?
  • spinkingspinking    2,235 posts
    Blackout I think Diva. More so to keep it from the fcukwits. That Para has mentioned above as using it as fodder to advance there cause
  • JellJell    994 posts
    paraletic said:

    Once again disgraceful comments on social media from animal activists towards Mitch. Complete and utter fuckwits that need to be wiped out.


    Social media has just become an avenue for people to hurl abuse behind the safety of their keyboards. I’d bet 99% of them are too spineless to say these things in person.

    Most of them are the kind of hypocritical people posting #banhorseracing while tucking into a filet mignon.

    hash likes this post.

  • RodentRodent    5,003 posts
    TheDiva said:

    Will we ever get a replay of the race or will it be a blackout?

    Seems odd to not have the replay available on CRIS when it is available elsewhere.
  • TheDivaTheDiva    11,742 posts
    Where else is it? Not on tabtouch either
  • RodentRodent    5,003 posts
    The giddy goat where I live.
  • tonytony    1,836 posts
    Interesting that it is not available on Sky but is on hteir TAB site.
  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,041 posts
    Lively discussion this morning on Racing Radio regarding the fall on Saturday. The claim was made that to report it as a heart attack was incorrect. According to the Stewards Report, the filly was found deceased. An inquiry has been postponed until riders involved can give evidence, but seemingly Racing Radio know more and know better because they were lamenting the irresponsible journalism of what appeared in the paper describing the event. So if a hearing has been postponed, why should they be making public comment as the public arm of RWWA ? It's not like they have any independence in making any other Industry based comment.
  • trustygustytrustygusty    100 posts

    Lively discussion this morning on Racing Radio regarding the fall on Saturday. The claim was made that to report it as a heart attack was incorrect. According to the Stewards Report, the filly was found deceased. An inquiry has been postponed until riders involved can give evidence, but seemingly Racing Radio know more and know better because they were lamenting the irresponsible journalism of what appeared in the paper describing the event. So if a hearing has been postponed, why should they be making public comment as the public arm of RWWA ? It's not like they have any independence in making any other Industry based comment.




    It was announced on Durrant Racing's Facebook page that the filly had broken her neck in the fall. Which would have caused her death. Obviously they would be privy to the autopsy report?
  • TheDivaTheDiva    11,742 posts
    https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/wa/race-halted-by-tragic-ascot-death-ng-b881152963z

    the offending article...

    Track officials said preliminary veterinary examinations found a heart attack was the cause of Assetro's death.
  • FlandersFlanders    318 posts

    Lively discussion this morning on Racing Radio regarding the fall on Saturday. The claim was made that to report it as a heart attack was incorrect. According to the Stewards Report, the filly was found deceased. An inquiry has been postponed until riders involved can give evidence, but seemingly Racing Radio know more and know better because they were lamenting the irresponsible journalism of what appeared in the paper describing the event. So if a hearing has been postponed, why should they be making public comment as the public arm of RWWA ? It's not like they have any independence in making any other Industry based comment.




    It was announced on Durrant Racing's Facebook page that the filly had broken her neck in the fall. Which would have caused her death. Obviously they would be privy to the autopsy report?

    No way it fell because it had a heart attack that is for sure. Still makes me angry thinking about how it all happened. Should never have happened, poor horse and connections. Must be absolutely devastated

    trustygusty likes this post.

  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,041 posts
    It didn't fall as a result of a broken neck, it may have had a massive coronary attack and fell to the ground. Of course it may have also fallen as a result of hitting the heels of the horse in front of it, then fallen to the ground, broken it's neck and even subsequently had a heart attack but all of that is as a result of a chain of events.

    That is why a Stewards Inquiry is the best forum to resolve this horrible fall. It's irresponsible of on air presenter's on an Industry radio station, to enter into the discussion on a matter that has been adjourned. Yes you can simply say it is adjourned, but to laugh or pour scorn on the original story is as irresponsible, because if they too are not correct as per the upcoming inquiry, are they not trying to influence that inquiry for another purpose ?

    Quite simply they should know a whole lot better and just shut up.

    oldhendo, thefalcon likes this post.

  • sonnysonny    619 posts
    Can't believe that you guys are still listening to them....

    thefalcon likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    16,016 posts
    I NEVER listen to tab radio or whatever its called except for a race when in the car. bunch of bloody morons..
  • detonatordetonator    1,847 posts
    I reckon The Sports Daily is a great show. They have great guests like David Hayes giving us the word on Vega Magic this morning. The Karrakatta gallops live from Ascot was great listening. Tipsters like Dean Lester and Ron Dufficy and all the interviews with eastern states trainers and jockeys give great insights. Football insights from Ballantyne Shepperd reporters like Julian Destoop etc. To front up every morning and produce 3 hours of radio every day is a good effort. =D>
Sign In or Register to comment.