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Satuday Preview with Crippa
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
The first metro meeting of the new season has unfortunately produced what looks to be a very quiet betting affair. Some uninspiring races mixed in with the chance of a thunderstorm, it may be a better afternoon to be a duck than a punter. I went to bed last night thinking the Aussies were on the way to being rolled for 150 odd and that I’d be going back to the well and tipping one in the last with a degree of confidence. It was beautiful awakening to the news of Sir Steven’s heroics but on the flip side seeing the price of FREE TRADE had done a Houdini. He looked a nice bet at close to $4 but the new quote of $2.30 is poison and I couldn’t back him with stolen money in a race that has plenty of depth.
The rail goes to the 2m position which should ensure an even track with all runners getting their chance dependant on the tempo. I’d imagine race 1 will be run on a soft5 but could deteriorate throughout the meeting as the rain comes. On a day I found it difficult in finding some suggested bets, there is one absolute special on the card that we can have a crack at, chips in anyone?
Race 5- Master vs Apprentice
Not a heap of speed in this race and for that reason I’m happy to side with the likely leader PLAY HARD. Dropped back to the mile after a decent effort in the Aquanita Stakes, on that occasion he beat all bar the in form Lordhelpmerun. He drops in grade and is well weighted after Mollie Clark’s claim who has a good relationship with the galloper. From gate 12 Mollie should be able to work across to take up the running and from there he will be pretty hard to get past.
If they are making ground then FOUR WHITE FOX looks to be the main danger. He put in a real eye catcher first up with the apprentice engaged and then it was no surprise to see him further elevate second up with Pike jumping on. He was probably a good thing beat that day after finding some traffic issues in the straight. The fact he was scratched from a winnable race last week is a slight concern but Durrant is the master of keeping them fit and providing he is ready to go then look for Pike to be settling off them and rattling home at the business end of proceedings.
BLACK SHADOW broke through for a much deserved win last start after a luckless preparation. Jason Brown might even try and hold the front from the inside marble otherwise elect to sit behind the leader, he should get every chance from either scenario while MULGA got caught deep last start and is more than capable of pinching a race like this at big odds if he produces his best.
There are a couple of queries in the race so it’s not a huge confidence play but at the current prices or better I’m happy to have a wager on PLAY HARD and to a lesser extent FOUR WHITE FOX.
Selections:
PLAY HARD
FOUR WHITE FOX
BLACK SHADOW
MULGA
Betting Strategy:
$50 wins PLAY HARD and $20 wins FOUR WHITE FOX
Race 6- All In
On a tough betting day there is an absolute stand out. They should motor here with AY TEE EMM attempting to cross the goldfields galloper WOCKNWOLL.
This sets the race up perfectly for LIPSTICK FLICKERS. She looked the winner last start in a narrow defeat finishing next to horses like Flower Of War and Essential Spice, both would be a short price favourite in a race like this. From barrier 3 the in form Brodie Kirby will have her just behind the hot speed and she looks superbly weighted in this grade after the claim.
The obvious second pick is UNI TIME. He backed up a solid trial with an encouraging first up victory, while he was suited by the track bias that day he definitely won with a bit in reserve. He is another runner who will appreciate the genuine tempo and look for him to finish hard. One that could be the knock out hope is WHY CHOOSE HER. She would have gone into a lot of black books off her last start effort where she exploded after finally finding some clear galloping room. While her starting price profile isn’t great she can run a big race at an each way quote for those looking to bet around the top two in the market. They look the three hopes, I’ll throw AY TEE EMM in for fourth as he is the likely leader and ran well on the severely inferior inside pad last start.
I can’t find a chink in armour of LIPSTICK FLICKERS. Has a clear ratings edge on this field, maps to perfection, will appreciate any sting out of the ground and is thrown in at the weight after the claim. She is currently fighting UNI TIME for favouritism with both gallopers around the $2.70 mark. I expect her to be a clear elect come tomorrow. Beg, borrow and steal.
Selections:
LIPSTICK FLICKERS
UNI TIME
WHY CHOOSE HER
AY TEE EMM
Betting Strategy:
$100 wins LIPSTICK FLICKERS
The rail goes to the 2m position which should ensure an even track with all runners getting their chance dependant on the tempo. I’d imagine race 1 will be run on a soft5 but could deteriorate throughout the meeting as the rain comes. On a day I found it difficult in finding some suggested bets, there is one absolute special on the card that we can have a crack at, chips in anyone?
Race 5- Master vs Apprentice
Not a heap of speed in this race and for that reason I’m happy to side with the likely leader PLAY HARD. Dropped back to the mile after a decent effort in the Aquanita Stakes, on that occasion he beat all bar the in form Lordhelpmerun. He drops in grade and is well weighted after Mollie Clark’s claim who has a good relationship with the galloper. From gate 12 Mollie should be able to work across to take up the running and from there he will be pretty hard to get past.
If they are making ground then FOUR WHITE FOX looks to be the main danger. He put in a real eye catcher first up with the apprentice engaged and then it was no surprise to see him further elevate second up with Pike jumping on. He was probably a good thing beat that day after finding some traffic issues in the straight. The fact he was scratched from a winnable race last week is a slight concern but Durrant is the master of keeping them fit and providing he is ready to go then look for Pike to be settling off them and rattling home at the business end of proceedings.
BLACK SHADOW broke through for a much deserved win last start after a luckless preparation. Jason Brown might even try and hold the front from the inside marble otherwise elect to sit behind the leader, he should get every chance from either scenario while MULGA got caught deep last start and is more than capable of pinching a race like this at big odds if he produces his best.
There are a couple of queries in the race so it’s not a huge confidence play but at the current prices or better I’m happy to have a wager on PLAY HARD and to a lesser extent FOUR WHITE FOX.
Selections:
PLAY HARD
FOUR WHITE FOX
BLACK SHADOW
MULGA
Betting Strategy:
$50 wins PLAY HARD and $20 wins FOUR WHITE FOX
Race 6- All In
On a tough betting day there is an absolute stand out. They should motor here with AY TEE EMM attempting to cross the goldfields galloper WOCKNWOLL.
This sets the race up perfectly for LIPSTICK FLICKERS. She looked the winner last start in a narrow defeat finishing next to horses like Flower Of War and Essential Spice, both would be a short price favourite in a race like this. From barrier 3 the in form Brodie Kirby will have her just behind the hot speed and she looks superbly weighted in this grade after the claim.
The obvious second pick is UNI TIME. He backed up a solid trial with an encouraging first up victory, while he was suited by the track bias that day he definitely won with a bit in reserve. He is another runner who will appreciate the genuine tempo and look for him to finish hard. One that could be the knock out hope is WHY CHOOSE HER. She would have gone into a lot of black books off her last start effort where she exploded after finally finding some clear galloping room. While her starting price profile isn’t great she can run a big race at an each way quote for those looking to bet around the top two in the market. They look the three hopes, I’ll throw AY TEE EMM in for fourth as he is the likely leader and ran well on the severely inferior inside pad last start.
I can’t find a chink in armour of LIPSTICK FLICKERS. Has a clear ratings edge on this field, maps to perfection, will appreciate any sting out of the ground and is thrown in at the weight after the claim. She is currently fighting UNI TIME for favouritism with both gallopers around the $2.70 mark. I expect her to be a clear elect come tomorrow. Beg, borrow and steal.
Selections:
LIPSTICK FLICKERS
UNI TIME
WHY CHOOSE HER
AY TEE EMM
Betting Strategy:
$100 wins LIPSTICK FLICKERS
Comments
oldhendo likes this post.
I think there is a good one in it.
Two then :P
jum likes this post.
H-BOMBER, jum, thefalcon, oldhendo likes this post.
Uttsy likes this post.
1. The famous colours of wily trainer Bob Turrell going around in the first race so am having something on first starter Alien From Mars.
2. Something outlandish - a future Railway Stakes horse running tomorrow - Uni Time.
3. Backed this horse 7 times in a row last campaign before he went for a spell and 7 times in a row was unplaced...tomorrow first up from a spell, goes over 1000 metres and can get well back in the field....he's actually going around as one of the favourite's :-O he's 8 yrs. old too, but does have Pike aboard, it's crazy but am going to front up to him again - Profit Street.
I'm gonna say what everyone's thinking. And its a bit of a whinge for something we all get for free.
But why is the heading called "Saturday Preview" and we only get Crippa's thoughts on two races. I understand he might not be keen on anything else over the meeting. But we do like reading other peoples thoughts on how races are run and giving us punters a differing view. Just put No Bet in Betting Strategy.
I did enjoy putting on the previous tipsters 4 selections in for the Quaddies for something to listen too when playing golf.
Uttsy likes this post.
jum likes this post.
X_X
Just close ur eyes and pretend this race doesn't exist
:-j
H-BOMBER, thefalcon likes this post.
Also a little each way on Grey Enigma in the same race. Might have just got the confidence after the Kal win
Saracino backed overnight, was keen at the 9.50 now 5.00
Good punting
That's Funny Az @jum :D
jum likes this post.
Ok Falc!Just for you and me...dont tell anyone else!
Awkward barrier main issue
Perfect ride by the hoop too.
Couldn't quite work out the fuss about Broome ? Wasn't it on Sky2 ? It's difficult enough to call one race at a time.
Got a good slice of the quarter thanks to Terry as well
Life is good
TheSwooper, Ridersonthestorm33, Gilgamesh, oldhendo likes this post.