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Handicapping/Allocation of points = little wonder we lose all the good horses, seriously.

West Australian Racing
After the Black Heart Bart Stakes these were the outcomes:
Stageman(1st place) gets 4 points.
Cup Night (2nd place) 3 points.
Dance Music (3rd place) 0 points.
Vital Silver (5th place) MINUS 2 points

This outcome is questionable at best. How can Cup Night get 3 points? If he gets 3 points, surely Stageman gets 5 or 6? After all, Cup Night carried 2.5kg more. This bloke hasn't been to a big race handicap yet and the "handicapper" is making it almost an impossible assignment already. Little wonder Perth racing loses all the up and comers and the quality.... its not going to change anything and we're not going to be any better off going forward whilst there are 10 races all year that the better horses can compete in.

Next, Surely this means Dance Music gets a point? Someone please explain to me why it doesn't?

Now for the fun stuff- how the bloody hell does Vital Silver lose 2 points for running 5th??? It ran an ok race in a scenario where it didn't get the best run and it finished 5th!! It shouldn't lose 1 point, let alone 2!

In my opinion all of the above is completely wrong. I'd love to hear any reasonable explanation for this. Is it to look after Bob Peters? (Suspect yes). Is it to assist Vital Silver artificially so he stays here? (Suspect yes).

Comments

  • NgawyniNgawyni    571 posts
    edited September 2020
    I can tell you the logic. You may not agree with all of it.

    It’s based on an assessment of their performance, handicap rating and the weight they carried.

    Vital Silver’s handicap rating was 111. In a true handicap he should have carried 8kgs more than Cup Night who had a rating of 95. But he carried only 1kg more and was well beaten by it. In other words Vital Silver ran well below his handicap rating which is why his rating dropped. That’s fair enough. Vital Silver will never win a handicap with a 111 rating.

    Cup Night and Stageman were both 95 raters going into the race yet Cup Night had to give Stageman 2.5kgs and they finished together. On that basis alone Cup Night deserved a little more than the usual penalty for second. Plus Cup Night beat home Vital Silver despite being badly
    handicapped against it.

    Stageman was the best weighted horse in the race other than for Flower of War. They were the two who were weighted to win based on their previous ratings which he did, just. So he doesn’t deserve any more than the 4 points for winning.

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  • ChrisChris    4,574 posts
    I thought that was a cracking run by Cup Night all things considered, be a shame if he doesn't get in well for a Railway.

    Interesting hearing Pike talk about how Stageman only ever gives 80% of what he can do. Wonder how much we saw on Saturday.
  • FlandersFlanders    809 posts
    Ok so if Ngawyni is on the money and I have to assume that he is, how do they make it better so that there are races for these horses here in WA longer-term? ie. We'll lose these nice types like RedCanMan, Cup Night, Stageman, etc etc well before we've had a couple of seasons of them all competing.

    Not so long ago a horse could have two or three cracks at the Railway for example. Now, if you go alright, you get one. And even then, you'll probably be weighted right up to your potential and it probably curtails your chance of winning.

    I love when we have high quality racing here in WA. The Black Heart Bart Stakes looked awesome on paper and the build up was so good to see. After all of those boring winter listed races its great to be back on the cusp of the good stuff, but it is still a new flush of up-and-comers that make it exciting and next year they'll be gone just like last year.
    I'd love to see these good ones able to compete for 2 or 3 years, more often and without having to lump the grandstand
  • FlandersFlanders    809 posts
    Whilst looking into the Hannan's Handicap field, I noticed the fave Massimo had a period where it ran 2nd on 5 consecutive occasions in prime metro races and it only copped a total of 2 points increase in it's rating. One of those races was the listed Lee-Steere Stakes and it got ZERO points for running 2nd. @Ngawyni cam you please help me understand how this works? Or anyone else?

    https://cris.rwwa.com.au/horse.aspx?horse=5045271

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  • NgawyniNgawyni    571 posts
    edited September 2020
    The Lee Steere at the end of Massimo's last prep was a set-weights and penalties race (like Saturday's Black Heart Bart Stakes) where Massimo (like Vital Silver) was favourably handicapped under the conditions of the race. He was a 79 rater going into the race and in a normal handicap would have given Sanabreanna (a 68 rater) 5.5 kgs. He gave her only 4 kgs and was beaten. So in that sense he didn't run up to his rating which is probably why his rating didn't go up.

    However the next 4 times Massimo ran second, all this prep, were all in genuine handicaps so the above reasoning doesn't apply. He carried his proper weight, as did most of the others in each race (a few would have been out of the handicap). And in the last 2 of those races (on 6 June and 11 July) Massimo received no penalty at all for running 2nd. I'm guessing that's because, as he wasn't winning at the time, the handicapper felt Massimo had reached his mark and used his 'discretion' not to penalise him for running second, leaving him on each occasion as an 81 rater.

    Turned out the handicapper was very wrong because Massimo has gone on to record 4 wins and a second from his subsequent 5 starts and is now a 98 rater.

    It's certainly arguable when Massimo beat Majinika by 0.5 lengths on 18 July that Massimo got in at least 1kg (2 ratings points) light, and that may have affected the outcome, as a result of Massimo not being penalised for his seconds on 6 June and 11 July. For the same reason, its arguable Massimo continues to get into every race at least 1kg light.

    I don't agree with the handicapper exercising his discretion in that way. It's arbitrary, is based on his subjective opinion and unfairly favours some horses (who have already banked the prizemoney for running 2nd) and disadvantages their opponents in future races (some of whom, like Majinika, may not have too many chances to win another race). 

    A few years ago I posted about a similar thing happening to Settler's Creek. It ran 5 consecutive Saturday seconds in December 2016 and January 2017 and was penalised a total of 2 ratings points (1 kg) while earning $60,000 in prizemoney (horses receive a standard 3 ratings points and sometimes more for winning a midweek race and earning $14,750). Again we could only assume the handicapper had felt that because Settler's Creek wasn't winning it had reached its mark and so decided not to penalise it for its 3 consecutive Saturday seconds between 31 December 2016 and 21 January 2017, leaving it as a 74 rater. The handicapper was wrong on that occasion as well. Settler's Creek went on to win 2 more Saturday races that prep and another 3 in its career after that, the last as an 80 rater.



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  • NgawyniNgawyni    571 posts
    edited September 2020
    I also don't agree with the handicapper exercising his discretion to give a horse 5 or 6 or more ratings points for winning because of the size of the margin. 

    This'll Testya received 9 points (2 of those were because he was a 58 rater and out of the handicap) for winning a 60+ handicap on 7 December and another 5 for winning a 60+ handicap on 29 August. That's 14 points for earning $59,000. 

    Massimo has run second 5 times this prep picking up 3 points and earning $56,000. Settler's Creek got 2 points for his 5 seconds earning $60,000.

    Gilgamesh, savethegame likes this post.

  • FlandersFlanders    809 posts
    Ngawyni said:

    I also don't agree with the handicapper exercising his discretion to give a horse 5 or 6 or more ratings points for winning because of the size of the margin. 


    This'll Testya received 9 points (2 of those were because he was a 58 rater and out of the handicap) for winning a 60+ handicap on 7 December and another 5 for winning a 60+ handicap on 29 August. That's 14 points for earning $59,000. 

    Massimo has run second 5 times this prep picking up 3 points and earning $56,000. Settler's Creek got 2 points for his 5 seconds earning $60,000.


    So is it his judgement do you think? Or could it be a case of "its not what you know but who you know"?
    Maybe a look back through some other horses that carry the same colours might reveal a pattern? Now that would be a cracker of a thread
  • TheDivaTheDiva    12,602 posts
    if that type of discretion is being exercised... then the system is broken. 

    Flanders likes this post.

  • Shouldn’t be any discretion in handicapping at all
  • NgawyniNgawyni    571 posts
    I've no reason to think it's anything other than the handicapper exercising his judgment in good faith. 

    I just don't agree with the logic or the unfairness which results from one horse being given an advantage at the expense of others or from a horse being handicapped on potential rather than on what it has won.


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  • TheDivaTheDiva    12,602 posts
    And who is to say the handicapper is a good judge?
  • Speaking of handicapping. If ihtsahymn is a 109 rater shouldn’t he have 63-5 kgs in the Kal cup?
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,875 posts
    edited October 2020
    Assume you meant Come Play With Me who is on 109, Itsahymn 102.
  • RodentRodent    5,892 posts
    Quality Handicap max topweight 62kg. I like it. Encourages the better horses to run. If you can't beat something carrying 62kg, you should target easier races.

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  • Yep wrong horse sorry
  • RodentRodent    5,892 posts
    So Black Shadow was out of the handicap last start being a 71 rater in a 72+. How the hell did he drop 2 points back to a 69 rater? Seriously, the horse ran 3rd to Montelena as a 73 rater and drops 4 points in 2 runs.
     Talk about the handicapper being kind. I was under the impression that if you race out of the handicap you aren't supposed to shed ratings points.

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  • RodentRodent    5,892 posts
    If I were Steve Wolfe I'd be on the phone to find out why Black Shadow dropped 2 points yet Lordhelpmerun who finished behind Black Shadow only dropped 1 point. Discretion, yeah right.

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  • thefalconthefalcon    17,549 posts
    rodent, it amazes me that trainers who perceive being hard done by do not demand a pow-wow with the handicapper.
  • ManchildManchild    273 posts
    Handicapper...... I think not.
  • shothrushothru    55 posts
    thefalcon said:

    rodent, it amazes me that trainers who perceive being hard done by do not demand a pow-wow with the handicapper.

    They do. Its pretty much a waste of time
  • FlandersFlanders    809 posts
    shothru said:

    thefalcon said:

    rodent, it amazes me that trainers who perceive being hard done by do not demand a pow-wow with the handicapper.

    They do. Its pretty much a waste of time

    Yep I've heard the same. Sums up their attitude towards transparency
  • thefalconthefalcon    17,549 posts
    bloody awful attitude if thats the case.
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