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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    You forgot The Gong, @thefalcon and don't even get me started on The Golden Eagle :-q
  • paraleticparaletic    3,750 posts
    edited November 2020
    Someone made a good point on this thread or another a couple of days ago about “weak” group races and i really appreciated it. So i pose the question -
    Ever tried to win a weak group 1? 8->

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  • detonatordetonator    2,644 posts
    I reckon Group 1 status is overplayed in modern times. 
    Is the Group 1 Winterbottom any more or any less prestigious than a "non" group Everest ?
    Nice to have Group 1 on the resume and for breeding purposes etc etc I suppose. 
    And it is something to aspire to when nominating your horse on the off chance it gets into the field and hope for a miracle.
    After all, Stephen Bradbury did win an Olympic Gold Medal and will never be considered in the Top 500 Australian athletes of our time.
    B-)
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited November 2020
    detonator said:

    After all, Stephen Bradbury did win an Olympic Gold Medal and will never be considered in the Top 500 Australian athletes of our time.
    B-)
    That's a tad harsh. Without checking, can you name any of our other winter Olympic medallists?  They didn't need good fortune yet are still largely anonymous.
  • detonatordetonator    2,644 posts

    detonator said:

    After all, Stephen Bradbury did win an Olympic Gold Medal and will never be considered in the Top 500 Australian athletes of our time.
    B-)
    That's a tad harsh. Without checking, can you name any of our other winter Olympic medallists?  They didn't need good fortune yet are still largely anonymous.
    The only reason I know Stephen Bradbury is a winter Olympic Gold Medalist is because that joke never gets old !!!
    It was just an analogy off the top of my head to show that some Group 1s are fair dinkum and some are not. Take yesterdays Japan Cup for example. What is Japanese for FAIR DINKUM ?
    What was the name of that horse that won the Victorian Derby at 150 to 1 ridden by Brenton Avdulla. Can`t remember that one either let alone some down hill skier.
  • NgawyniNgawyni    571 posts
    edited November 2020
    Lasqueti Spirit, VRC Oaks
  • detonatordetonator    2,644 posts
    Ngawyni said:

    Lasqueti Spirit, VRC Oaks

    Thanks Ngawyni.....and you were one of my favourite horses. :x

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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited November 2020
    The VRC Oaks is a time honoured race-it's not going to be downgraded any time soon. As for LS's win-it was the beneficiary of a dreadful on pace bias, which did the odds on fav, Yankee Rose(3rd to Winx in the CP at its previous start), no favours at all.
  • detonatordetonator    2,644 posts
    Reckon I was on the favourite that day. No wonder I couldn’t remember the winners name. 
    A bottle of bourbon took care of that nightmare. 
    X_X

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    8,667 posts
    Here i was thinking there might be 5 or 6 x 3 yos in the race and be a great spectacle. In the end we get 2 colts and a filly. Dom to Shoot and Watch me Dance are arguable the best two of their sexes I guess. Where is Em Yee Aye and Magical Dream? Thought they might get a run.

    Dom and Dance would be the only 2 that could beat the favorite based on the Railway. Looks like another trophy for the Peters juggernaut.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,875 posts
    Probably right, I think Dom will chop up the filly over 1800(sorry Wolfey)and is a real live chance.

    TCTS will have some other leaders to contend with and get hindered by otherwise i would nearly declare him to beat the shorty..but if Joey can breeze or lead at his rolling good tempo will take some catching.
    There the two I like probably won't butter up on IG.
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    Barrier draw is crucial imo. The 1800m start doesn't give them that much time to find their positions and it typically favours on pacers unless they overcook it. IG gets 2kg from TCTS but would want to jump on terms with them(she missed the start in the Asian Beau) or could be in trouble.
  • FlandersFlanders    809 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    Here i was thinking there might be 5 or 6 x 3 yos in the race and be a great spectacle. In the end we get 2 colts and a filly. Dom to Shoot and Watch me Dance are arguable the best two of their sexes I guess. Where is Em Yee Aye and Magical Dream? Thought they might get a run.

    Dom and Dance would be the only 2 that could beat the favorite based on the Railway. Looks like another trophy for the Peters juggernaut.


    Em Tee Aye connections decided not to go to KT. Apparently it will go to a race next Saturday.
    Speaking of 3yos, I don't think they are doing the right thing by Wolfey's filly by going to the well again. She's done an enormous job.
    She still might win but will she come back? I guess the lure of the big purse is hard to resist though.
  • paraleticparaletic    3,750 posts
    I dont get the love affair with Dom To Shoot. 12 starts for 3 wins, most races in its own age group, doesnt really tickle my pickle. Happy to eat humble pie but Bob quinellas the race with IG winning very very easily.
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited December 2020
    @paraletic I was thinking pretty much the same last night altho I think it's more likely the same quinella as the Railway. If the pace is drawn wide again then it's hard to see Too Close The Sun reversing the result. 
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    If you look at both the Guineas and the Railway

    Watch Me Dance(1:35.80) first 1000m 60.82, last 600m 34.98
    Dom To Shoot(1.35:95); first 1000m 61.75, last 600m 34.75

    Inspirational Girl(1:33.79) first 1000m 59.33, last 600m  34.46
    Too Close The Sun(1:34.08) first 1000m 58.87, last 600m 35.21


    Dom To Shoot has gone thru the first 1000m almost 2 seconds slower than IG, yet STILL run the last 600m 2L slower and the mare was untouched over the concluding stages


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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    8,667 posts
    Em Tee Aye a Perth Cup nominee :-?
  • ElitistElitist    358 posts

    If you look at both the Guineas and the Railway


    Watch Me Dance(1:35.80) first 1000m 60.82, last 600m 34.98
    Dom To Shoot(1.35:95); first 1000m 61.75, last 600m 34.75

    Inspirational Girl(1:33.79) first 1000m 59.33, last 600m  34.46
    Too Close The Sun(1:34.08) first 1000m 58.87, last 600m 35.21


    Dom To Shoot has gone thru the first 1000m almost 2 seconds slower than IG, yet STILL run the last 600m 2L slower and the mare was untouched over the concluding stages


    A "direct" comparison like that should also include the weight swing of 8.5kg? as well though.
  • GilgameshGilgamesh    3,664 posts

    If you look at both the Guineas and the Railway


    Watch Me Dance(1:35.80) first 1000m 60.82, last 600m 34.98
    Dom To Shoot(1.35:95); first 1000m 61.75, last 600m 34.75

    Inspirational Girl(1:33.79) first 1000m 59.33, last 600m  34.46
    Too Close The Sun(1:34.08) first 1000m 58.87, last 600m 35.21


    Dom To Shoot has gone thru the first 1000m almost 2 seconds slower than IG, yet STILL run the last 600m 2L slower and the mare was untouched over the concluding stages





    Those figures clearly indicate IG was the better run last week Kramer BUT does that mean she is going to bounce from that run and go better than him again??
  • Precision1Precision1    200 posts
    I’ve been thinking more and more about Uni Time.  First look at the mile and runs a career best, who’s to say he doesn’t improve again at the 1800m.  Railway run reminded me a bit of that of Pounumu who was then unwanted in the Kingston Town.
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited December 2020
    Gilgamesh said:

    If you look at both the Guineas and the Railway


    Watch Me Dance(1:35.80) first 1000m 60.82, last 600m 34.98
    Dom To Shoot(1.35:95); first 1000m 61.75, last 600m 34.75

    Inspirational Girl(1:33.79) first 1000m 59.33, last 600m  34.46
    Too Close The Sun(1:34.08) first 1000m 58.87, last 600m 35.21


    Dom To Shoot has gone thru the first 1000m almost 2 seconds slower than IG, yet STILL run the last 600m 2L slower and the mare was untouched over the concluding stages





    Those figures clearly indicate IG was the better run last week Kramer BUT does that mean she is going to bounce from that run and go better than him again??
    I think it suggests that Dom To Shoot probably can't run a closing sectional run any faster and if they put him up on the speed he's likely going to run his last 600m slower than he did in the Guineas. Remember he was maxed out late whereas Pike was kind to the mare. The weight won't matter as far as ability to sprint is concerned-where it becomes an advantage is by going forward off a moderate tempo and the backmarkers being set too much of a task. In that scenario, it probably favours Too Close The Sun or one of the other on pacers, but TCTS, was still firing late in the Railway whereas the others went backwards

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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,875 posts
    edited December 2020
    And had the best unimpeded run you will ever see.

    As you mentioned TRK the barrier draw will play a big part for a few runners including DTS.
    He has been going well this prep with a win, 2nd and a 3rd plus had no luck in the Fairetha yet still broke 34 when wide throughout.
    He drops 4.5kg on the last run IG goes up 4kg so that will have some bearing plus he had some traffic issues cost him in the guineas..has a good chance i reckon if he draws a good gate is a lock for top 3.
    Kay Cee had NIL exposure in open company last year yet beat them all god bless her.
    Reasonably similar comparisons can be drawn from last year's Guineas and the Railway re overall sectionals so i won't be writing off the 3yos on that factor, they notoriously do well in this race just not usually the trainers with ones given a chance this year.

    At 2.15 I won't be backing up on the fave unless the other two draw crapola....
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited December 2020
    That's exactly the point. The Railway and the Guineas almost always provide the winner of the KT. By any measure you want to use, the eye test, the times, the first two in the Railway were clearly better than the first three Guineas. Barrier draw will no doubt have some bearing tho.


    ***I will add Kay Cee was a moral beaten in the Guineas after getting waaay too far back and then had blinkers added for the KT.  Dom To Shoot doesn't have the luxury of the equipment change.
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited December 2020
    Elitist said:

    If you look at both the Guineas and the Railway


    Watch Me Dance(1:35.80) first 1000m 60.82, last 600m 34.98
    Dom To Shoot(1.35:95); first 1000m 61.75, last 600m 34.75

    Inspirational Girl(1:33.79) first 1000m 59.33, last 600m  34.46
    Too Close The Sun(1:34.08) first 1000m 58.87, last 600m 35.21


    Dom To Shoot has gone thru the first 1000m almost 2 seconds slower than IG, yet STILL run the last 600m 2L slower and the mare was untouched over the concluding stages


    A "direct" comparison like that should also include the weight swing of 8.5kg? as well though.
    There's no 'weight swing'. DTS gets 5kg from the mare at WFA. I maintain the weight pull won't matter if they're side by side when they make their runs. Where it WILL matter is if the 3yo is 8 len in front of the mare at the 600m. Then it won't matter if she runs the last 600m 6L(1 sec) faster 
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,875 posts
    Barrier 9 for TCTS means he can maybe comfortably get outside probably Gailo Chop breezing but what they will do on Trap For Fools will they pull the trigger? Or he gets posted like GC did in the Railway..

    Fav not ideally drawn but was likely to be back in the pack anyway, will need to be not too far off them nearing the turn however.
    DOM will likely get a good run a few pairs back and one off.

    Should be a cracking race, hope so anyway.
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    Should be a great race. Fav drawn poorly for a $2.20 shot. It's better than drawing 1 but you'd expect her to drift now. Other main chances drawn well, inc both 3yos so DTS should settle in front of IG, which enhances its chances no end.  TCTS goes forward obviously. It's just matter of whether the stable mate Trap For Fools and Taxagano wanna push forward
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,746 posts
    edited December 2020
    Playing a fine % here but...

    Truly Great - Place
    Cup Night - Place
    Uni Time - Place

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,746 posts
    edited December 2020
    The proviso to Uni Time is horses that are placed at 100/1 and better, then next start are invariably unplaced. Rarely do 100/1 placegetters back up into the money but been a fave of mine, so putting in for the drum.

    Cup Night might get a good smother from the sometimes awkward barrier one. Was ok to good in the Railway.

    Truly Great big effort in the Railway to tramp 3 deep off a hectic speed and fought on particularly well, Chris Parnham, class hoop big bonus to its chances.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    8,667 posts
    I'm going to stick with Dom to Shoot now the barriers are out. Not thrilled with the Knuckey booking, only because his recent record doesn't have many winners in it. Maybe he hasn't been on the cattle to be fair. The good barrier, good weight and good form lead in all tick the boxes and at $8+ is a safe each way play. I'll be waiting till Saturday as the sheep will be piling into Pike. Just cannot have IG at 2.20 from 18 (into 15). No doubt be eating those words at 5pm on Saturday as Sir William seems to find a way. Watch Me dance probably steps up again and makes a fool of is all again....and Too Close the Sun will be making sure they have something to catch in the straight.

    The barriers have made it a good contest

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