New Handicapping System for the Trots

maybeso · February 9

Further- what you are suggesting is a horse can win at L4, wait 5 races, win at L4, wait 5 races, win at L4 ad infinatum.

Great work, genius.

savethegame · February 9

Horse numbers as they tumble its going to be a case for what system is fairer---we don't have the option of border hoping.

Stand corrected tonight's last race seems the RBD Has Jammed horses 7&8.Two horses that have NR 30. Skyline Trial last season 61 starts 0 wins. Telpo Star last season 61 starts 0 wins.

So the highest rated N.R in the race. IS Rockinthebox is NR. 59.

So if it was 30--60 NR BANDRACE. BADROUND WHO IS 55 RATER could start A HORSE who has won 16 races 191,027 in stakes could start.and draw inside the two horses mentioned if it was RBD----Can't see fair in that if i have got it right...

maybeso · February 9

STG, I have never seen a race NR 30 to 60. You might get a NR 56 to 60, or a NR up to 40, and so on and so forth. Further, races are usually PBD/NR and not RBD.

The NR of a horse has no correlation to its HWOE for the most part. As we in WA do not race under NR rules the movement of a horse's NR is divorced from realty, as can be attested to by the WA horses going east with good HWOEs and low NRs. Basically you cannot overlay a form based handicapping system onto a linear system.

Also the race you indicated is one of those fair $L5 RBD affairs. Super fair to have a L1 give a L7 a head start.

Rocket_Reign · February 9

maybeso said:
STG, I have never seen a race NR 30 to 60. You might get a NR 56 to 60, or a NR up to 40, and so on and so forth. Further, races are usually PBD/NR and not RBD.

The NR of a horse has no correlation to its HWOE for the most part. As we in WA do not race under NR rules the movement of a horse's NR is divorced from realty, as can be attested to by the WA horses going east with good HWOEs and low NRs. Basically you cannot overlay a form based handicapping system onto a linear system.

Also the race you indicated is one of those fair $L5 RBD affairs. Super fair to have a L1 give a L7 a head start.

Those horses nominate for that race and in doing so nominate a long way out of their class, they don’t have to go in that race it’s not designed for them. They can find much easier races in the program

aussiebattler · February 9

getthechange said:

aussiebattler said:
Thats ok if you can get To Mid week meetings consistently Rocket not everyone can ,need luck in the draw with GP being a leader bias track,as Colin Said Burning Rubber and Mcardles Gem have both done well ,when drawn well in these races (if they had drawn well in HWOE races they would also go well )
JB barriers at GP 9,8,9,12,5,7,8,10 (never had much luck with barrier draws at GP)

next 8 weeks program for a L9 Horse $L5 $1633.00 ($326 per start) (way under any of the L5$ LT conditioned set $)

Program for L5$LT 12k races all at GP Tuesday for the next 8 Weeks all RBD
Program for L5$LT 8k races all at GP Tuesday for the next 8 Weeks all RBD

Most if not All L7/L8 (CL9) PBD/L most likely draw bad but is what it is lately Favorites been of 1-4 with good horses coming through the grades which is set to continue no consideration to recent form applies to barriers just historical win $

GP Friday L7/L9 RBD may be a better option than all of the above if I gotta travel to GP to race may as well be on a Friday for metro stakes ( take a chance on getting a draw )

Jeremy - i would like your thoughts on the attachment
regards
Colin

There are no barrier draw conditions ? But Barrier draw doesn’t matter

It still seems like just an over complicated version of the drop back rule but instead you drop back in 5 starts even if placed

Once horses reach the bottom tier they won’t move through the L5$ system as quickly as they would through HWOE and will bounce between the bottom 2 much like the bottle necking of C1 in the MCR system with the drop back rule as it was (the only reason this hasn’t happened is due to the limited programmed L5$ races if you spread this system more it will become evident within 12 months ) also win 1 run places for 5 drop back win 1 rpt which seems like an integrity issue

Horses that would be competitive in their own HWOE grouping are entering these races which is not/ should not be its intended purpose

Adding L5$ LT conditions as an AE to level races and trying to integrate it into a drop back attributed to your level after 5 starts allowing horses to drop in level Races seems to be what you are trying to achieve

You might as well re introduce the drop back rule for unplaced runs 6-12 in non consecutive order up the the value 10 to drop a level as a general rule that way you can do away with the L5$ Field grouping system maybe re use it as a PBD/L5$ ,That will bring it back to 1 system in WA and horses would work up and down more equally instead of some dropping and some not based on the type of race they have been in ,also people will try harder as unplaced stakes barely covers the fuel there will be more genuine drop backs better integrity

AE conditions were removed at one stage but seem to be creeping back into the equations ?

Arapaho · February 9

No race should be designed to advantage any horse

Handicapping is about trying to make a field as equal as possible before they let them go.

Unfortunately these $L5 races are designed to help higher class horses to earn by dropping down in grade and compete against lesser lights,needing those lower class horses to nominate for that whole scenario to work,

No matter what heading you put on a race at nomination time it doesnt change the fact that if you got a L15 competing against L10 s L9s down to L3s it is grossly unfair.

Even the old system was way better than this abomination, as horses could only drop back 1 class every 10 unsuccessful starts

When Burning rubber L12 won his $L5 race,, his next highest rated opponents were three L9s thats 3 classes below him (the rest were lower than that) and he can do it again in another 5 starts. THAT'S 2 IN 10.

By putting these races on, the higher class horses, are not starting in their own HWOE grade (as stated) which is depleting the size of those fields and reducing the numbers progressing at the top end with less and less horses making it to FFA,

We need more horses at the top end and maybe then, we could push the fast class out to L16 L17 s or even further, thus giving metropolitan horses another win or two under their belt before they have to meet the real good ones.

Maybe that would keep them in WA a little longer.

Hopefully these $L5 races are not taking the place of lower class races on the programme forcing these lower rated horses into these races

I know I wouldn't nominate my L6 for a race of this type, knowing horses handicapped way above mine are going to be in it and could actually start inside me,

No bloody way.,.

It would be better to have a condition race for each class (HWOE) .

Only for horses that haven't earn't in their last 5 starts in that class. RBD .say 1 or 2 a month.

Would be no handicapping issues there

Like For Like racing

aussiebattler · February 11

Thought I would look at the L5$ LT $12k race a bit this week at GP Tuesday

Burning Rubber NZ gets a nice Draw in the 1 gate at GP Tuesday (no wonder Colin Likes them)

L12 HWOE $74k NR 68 (advantaged by the -2 points drop in NR before they changed it ) , winner of 3 metro races won 2 starts ago in 1.57.7 home in 27.9/29.0

Won 48k last season added another 5k this season

Has raced mainly in the L5$ LT races

You could say he has been one of the more successful in the L5$ System (but he wouldn’t be the only one )

Some other good horses in the race though

barrier 2 Infatuation NZ L10 - 2 metro wins and has a win / place ratio 45/68 NR 97 likely Favourite

May turn out to be a race for 3rd

10 - IAM Lambros L10 a good candidate for NR switch with a low 30 rating should get a nice run along the pegs

5- Crocodile Kid L12 (4 Metro wins )dropping in class may improve

7- Blackjack Zac L11 (4 metro wins) dropping in class should race well

8- Jesse Allwood L9 consistent type goes well but drawn wide

12- Wattabout Rioli L8 could run home late

Shows me that

RBD is not the best way to handicap these types of races with the obvious large class and form differences in the races ,if they were PBD/L or PBD/L/$L5 would they be targeted by some of the higher level horses

L5$ LT are not configured correctly and should cease until they have been analysed and corrected if possible ( I would like to see the figures to see if they have a higher average of short priced favourites )

NR Horses need to be re-calibrated into the system to take away the -2 point drop Australia Wide

Their points calculation table is still incorrect

This is meant to be an easier option for L9 horses struggling in a L7/L8 (CL9) somehow I don’t think it is

getthechange · February 11

aussiebattler said:
Thought I would look at the L5$ LT $12k race a bit this week at GP Tuesday

Burning Rubber NZ gets a nice Draw in the 1 gate at GP Tuesday (no wonder Colin Likes them)
L12 HWOE $74k NR 68 (advantaged by the -2 points drop in NR before they changed it ) , winner of 3 metro races won 2 starts ago in 1.57.7 home in 27.9/29.0
Won 48k last season added another 5k this season
Has raced mainly in the L5$ LT races
You could say he has been one of the more successful in the L5$ System (but he wouldn’t be the only one )
Some other good horses in the race though
barrier 2 Infatuation NZ L10 - 2 metro wins and has a win / place ratio 45/68 NR 97 likely Favourite

May turn out to be a race for 3rd
10 - IAM Lambros L10 a good candidate for NR switch with a low 30 rating should get a nice run along the pegs
5- Crocodile Kid L12 (4 Metro wins )dropping in class may improve
7- Blackjack Zac L11 (4 metro wins) dropping in class should race well
8- Jesse Allwood L9 consistent type goes well but drawn wide
12- Wattabout Rioli L8 could run home late

Shows me that
RBD is not the best way to handicap these types of races with the obvious large class and form differences in the races ,if they were PBD/L or PBD/L/$L5 would they be targeted by some of the higher level horses

L5$ LT are not configured correctly and should cease until they have been analysed and corrected if possible ( I would like to see the figures to see if they have a higher average of short priced favourites )

NR Horses need to be re-calibrated into the system to take away the -2 point drop Australia Wide
Their points calculation table is still incorrect

This is meant to be an easier option for L9 horses struggling in a L7/L8 (CL9) somehow I don’t think it is

12 starters with 1 odm - 10/1 chance to draw bar 1 - he got lucky

should he draw wide when his last win was in L5$ LT$8k and now he is in L5$ LT$12k - last six starts in L5$ LT$12k - 6th - 3rd - 4th - 7th - 8th - 2nd

between his last two wins he had 18 starts(placed in the lowest races he could get in which meant staying home some weeks) for two 2nds(1 GPM) two 3rds

L12 --three metro wins - HWOE Lt$40k - L5$ LT$20k - L5$ LT $20k -placed once in races above level 10 - yes he is L12 but he like many others have got there by racing below that level

Infatuation - 2 metro - HWOE Lt$40k - HWOE Lt$55k

Crocodie Kid 3 metro - HWOE LT$40k - L5$ Lt$20k L5$ Lt$20k

Blackjack -4 metro - HWOE LT$40k - HWOE LT$40k - HWOE LT$40k - L5$LT$20k

the level 7/8/9 horses could have started in races where the above horses would be ineligible but chose this race

there is a level 8/9 at Pin on Monday with 7 L8 horses and two L10 with concessions - not a full field they could have started there

these races do not use their HWOE so they shouldnt be pref draw on L

Pref draw on $L5 would mean a horse winning a level 6 like burning rubber did two starts ago would not only go up to level 8 but would draw wide for five starts

if a pref draw is going to be added then Win$L2 should be the choice

These races are configured correctly just not how you think they should be

the two systems are only loosely connected and are only connected at all to stop horses dropping to quickly - L9 horses can avoid the horses in this race by racing at GPM in HWOE $LT$40k or in the level 7/8/9 type races, entry level for L9 horses into the L5$ LT races is level 8 but that isnt necessarily where they are going to find their earning level - a progressive type L9 may win and go up to level 10 - the L9 that struggles drops to level 6 after five starts without winning at level 8 or level 4 after another five without winning at level 6

Just Barney being L9 with his last four starts having been in L8 races is currently eligible for the L5$LT $12k race but one more start in a level 8 race and he will be eigible for the L5$ Lt$8k(level 6) race-

starting in HWOE LT$40k will make him five starts away from th L5$LT$8k(level6) race

aussiebattler · February 12

Just Barney being L9 with his last four starts having been in L8 races is currently eligible for the L5$LT $12k race but one more start in a level 8 race and he will be eigible for the L5$ Lt$8k(level 6) race-

starting in HWOE LT$40k will make him five starts away from th L5$LT$8k(level6) race

Last 4 starts PBD/L havent had a decent barrier for a couple of years ,so your saying if a chance it in a metro (M0) race LT$40k or a LT $40 at pinjarra (RL9) with a RBD draw bad finish midfield or worse I am still only eligable for the L5$LT 12k for the next 5 starts and horses with metro wins and recent form deserve a chance to draw better ,thats not Handicapping

below is the last time JB drew 1-4

barrier 1 nov2019

barrier 2 nov2019

barrier 3 Jan2020

Barrier 4 Jun2019

seems you want to handicap people out or the industry

you don''t get my vote of confidence

Im done discussing the issue on this or any other site

AND YES HE SHOULD DRAW WIDE

JayJay · February 12

Yep, white flag from me as well on the alleged handicapping system, complete waste of time continuing, taken up driving spikes under my fingernails. It has been a shambles from the outset and no sign of it ever abating. I'm done.

Markovina · February 12

Iv got to say - Art Tutor last night - it was easily - by a mile the most impressive of the ex WA horses now performing in NSW

It had a horrendously hard run ( in a decent handy field ) and brained them - 28.4 last qtr after the work it did - there was no respite for it in the whole race

Only still a 6 year old ( surprised me ) i can remember it being based in Albany for a fair while - seems to been around for ever

My prediction - on last nights effort ( because it went like a machine )- it will win 2-3 Sat night races at Menangle -

Interesting the bloke whos got it in Sydney - he is a Tony Sivilvich type trainer - hes had 3-4 cast offs - and has he improved them

getthechange · February 12

aussiebattler said:
Just Barney being L9 with his last four starts having been in L8 races is currently eligible for the L5$LT $12k race but one more start in a level 8 race and he will be eigible for the L5$ Lt$8k(level 6) race-
starting in HWOE LT$40k will make him five starts away from th L5$LT$8k(level6) race

Last 4 starts PBD/L havent had a decent barrier for a couple of years ,so your saying if a chance it in a metro (M0) race LT$40k or a LT $40 at pinjarra (RL9) with a RBD draw bad finish midfield or worse I am still only eligable for the L5$LT 12k for the next 5 starts and horses with metro wins and recent form deserve a chance to draw better ,thats not Handicapping

below is the last time JB drew 1-4
barrier 1 nov2019
barrier 2 nov2019
barrier 3 Jan2020
Barrier 4 Jun2019

seems you want to handicap people out or the industry
you don''t get my vote of confidence

Im done discussing the issue on this or any other site

AND YES HE SHOULD DRAW WIDE

getthechange · February 12

Jeremy - take it up with GT and KH

I have raised this on numerous occasions and put forward suggestions to fix but to no avail

To be clear I agree that Just Barney should be able to start in the HWOE LT$40k without starting a new five count

whether or not his next start is in a level 8 race I think the the next time he does start in a level 8 it should make him eligible for the level 6 and he should be able to race above that level 6 and

that should only change if he wins

Basically make it five starts at the required level regardless of the start levels and the number of starts

eg Level 9 horse starts in race level 8-8-9-9-8-9-9-10-8-9-8 = five starts without winning at level 8 makes the horse eligible for level 6

currently the above race levels would have the horse start level as 9 and eligible for the L5$ LT$12k race and still four starts level 8 starts away from being eligible for the level 6 race

doesnt look that hard to fix but maybe not computer program wise

think the concern has been a horse getting back to say level 6 then running places in level 12 races and being able to drop back to level 6 - currently the start level stops that from happening

Rocket_Reign · February 12

Markovina said:
Iv got to say - Art Tutor last night - it was easily - by a mile the most impressive of the ex WA horses now performing in NSW

It had a horrendously hard run ( in a decent handy field ) and brained them - 28.4 last qtr after the work it did - there was no respite for it in the whole race

Only still a 6 year old ( surprised me ) i can remember it being based in Albany for a fair while - seems to been around for ever

My prediction - on last nights effort ( because it went like a machine )- it will win 2-3 Sat night races at Menangle -

Interesting the bloke whos got it in Sydney - he is a Tony Sivilvich type trainer - hes had 3-4 cast offs - and has he improved them

Would definitely take you up on a bet that he doesn’t win 3 at Menangle metro, his racing style won’t suit that big track at all unless of course that fella is as clever as Tony then it might win an inters

Betonme · February 12

A key issue we were having with a horse that's now racing successfully over east. He was HWOE of 42k. He had never won a race in the city, but couldn't get into the less than 40k's. So was graded amongst city winners when going to town. We tried the L5$ route, but would get to like 4 starts, then he would get a ballot and we would end up in another race rather than sit him in a paddock for another week. Then we would have to start the whole 5 start thing again. Anyhow he's happily racing against like for like horses over east!

Gilgamesh · February 12

Jeromy I commend you for continuing and putting as much though as you have in to it for this long

Markovina · February 13

Genuine question re the 2 handicapping systems which there has been alot of debate over

I was listening this morning to Brittany Graham ( outstanding harness racing commentator by the way ) to her audio previews on TAB.Com of all the Albion Park races tonight before i put my bets on their

Race 5 was where she made an interesting comment

She tipped Grant Dixons horse to win - then for 2nd she said Rockita ( no 7 outside front ) she said look this horse ran 2nd again last week - she then said - look this horse just cant draw a gate because of the National Rating system

My ears twigged when i heard that comment

savethegame · February 13

N.R. System horse in GATE one is a N.R.43 RATER -- Rockita is a N.R. 97. RATER. well placed to run tickets has metro-band of 0 so run places to the cows come home for metro place money?

So Brittany.another one that has trouble thinking fair. wants a 97 rater to draw inside 43,47,53,54,56 71;Rockita 97. SR. 59- 60-----Or does she have genuine beef with N.R.

So if you owned Bettor Be Oscar what would be the best play for him? going forward---ticky ticky-touch-wood.

Still got no idea what is the fairer system.probably have to work out thousands of hypothetically scenarios. for both systemsThe longevity of the standardbred allows up & down the tree. Which trainers are entilted to capitalize on a good horse---Punters cop the sting.trying to factor the intent.of a drop-back pending

aussiebattler · February 13

No comment

Rocket_Reign · February 13

The people I talk to over east hate the NR just as much as the people here hate our system, the problem is always going to be people have their own certain horses it doesn’t suit so they won’t like it

getthechange · February 13

jeremy wrote

L5$ LT are not configured correctly and should cease until they have been analysed and corrected if possible ( I would like to see the figures to see if they have a higher average of short priced favourites )

Nov/dec pref draws attached

aussiebattler · February 13

getthechange said:
jeremy wrote
L5$ LT are not configured correctly and should cease until they have been analysed and corrected if possible ( I would like to see the figures to see if they have a higher average of short priced favourites )

Nov/dec pref draws attached

?

savethegame · February 13

savethegame said:

savethegame said:
N.R. System horse in GATE one is a N.R.43 RATER -- Rockita is a N.R. 97. RATER. well placed to run tickets has metro-band of 0 so run places to the cows come home for metro place money?

So Brittany.another one that has trouble thinking fair. wants a 97 rater to draw inside 43,47,53,54,56 71;Rockita 97. SR. 59- 60-----Or does she have genuine beef with N.R.

When thurlow turned the mop---you knew it was party time into. 2.30 on the billy goat. gee made miss ruby sunshine a good chance at menangle --Rockita ran second going 1.52.7.to M.R.S. l/week. at A.P. -----M.R.S goes 1.52.1 tonight. at menangle.unless --brittany bowled a curve ball. with Dixons horse------mentioned in S.R --- U.R.P.-- Marko.

JimmyPop · February 15

Markovina said:
Genuine question re the 2 handicapping systems which there has been alot of debate over

I was listening this morning to Brittany Graham ( outstanding harness racing commentator by the way ) to her audio previews on TAB.Com of all the Albion Park races tonight before i put my bets on their

Race 5 was where she made an interesting comment

She tipped Grant Dixons horse to win - then for 2nd she said Rockita ( no 7 outside front ) she said look this horse ran 2nd again last week - she then said - look this horse just cant draw a gate because of the National Rating system

My ears twigged when i heard that comment

She is an absolute pain to listen to. The trouble with both systems is they are both convoluted. Make it easy for both industry and punters alike to understand. You need a degree to understand the WA system and most of the industry didn't go beyond high school.

Rocket_Reign · February 15

JimmyPop said:

Markovina said:
Genuine question re the 2 handicapping systems which there has been alot of debate over

I was listening this morning to Brittany Graham ( outstanding harness racing commentator by the way ) to her audio previews on TAB.Com of all the Albion Park races tonight before i put my bets on their

Race 5 was where she made an interesting comment

She tipped Grant Dixons horse to win - then for 2nd she said Rockita ( no 7 outside front ) she said look this horse ran 2nd again last week - she then said - look this horse just cant draw a gate because of the National Rating system

My ears twigged when i heard that comment
She is an absolute pain to listen to.

She’s very knowledgeable and very good for the industry

Markovina · February 26

Just looking at the early fixed odds on TAB.Com.au for NorthamSat night

Going through the races - got to the Village Kid sprint - which is a time honoured race and a very good race - 20k

And i just saw the craziest weirdest handicapping field selection of all time - Gordon what in hell is it doing in that race

I will be looking forward to the explanation of this

Rocket_Reign · February 26

Markovina said:
Just looking at the early fixed odds on TAB.Com.au for NorthamSat night

Going through the races - got to the Village Kid sprint - which is a time honoured race and a very good race - 20k

And i just saw the craziest weirdest handicapping field selection of all time - Gordon what in hell is it doing in that race

I will be looking forward to the explanation of this

It nominated for it there was only 10 noms and no ballots so it got a start

JayJay · February 26

Village Kid Sprint conditions:

L7/8 (CL9) CONDITIONED. 3YO and older. L7/8 (CL9) HWOE LT $32,500
(CONCESSIONS HWOE LT $40,000)
AE - HWOE LT $70,000 With L5$ LT $2,250.
AE 4YO+ HWOE LT $55,000 With 0 Metro Staked Wins as a 3YO or Older and LT 3 Wins L10 and 10+ WA starts.
Preference to HWOE $18,500+
(RL8)
(Concessions for Novice Driver,Fillies & Mares). RBD.

Simples

Markovina · February 26

It would be interesting to contrast the entry conditions for the Geelong Rocket tonight

That was also a sprint race - a mile - with 24k stake - so pretty simillar type of race

And i would bet my bottom dollar that a horse of Gordons calibre and race record - would not get within a bulls roar of the entry requirements for that Geelong rocket

Rocket_Reign · February 26

Markovina said:
It would be interesting to contrast the entry conditions for the Geelong Rocket tonight

That was also a sprint race - a mile - with 24k stake - so pretty simillar type of race

And i would bet my bottom dollar that a horse of Gordons calibre and race record - would not get within a bulls roar of the entry requirements for that Geelong rocket

You know a maiden can nominate for a Friday night free for all right? Just because you can doesn’t mean you should though

G'day Punter!

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