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New Handicapping System for the Trots

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  • maybesomaybeso    77 posts
    Further- what you are suggesting is a horse can win at L4, wait 5 races, win at L4, wait 5 races, win at L4 ad infinatum.

    Great work, genius.
  • savethegamesavethegame    2,106 posts
    edited February 9
    Horse numbers as they tumble its going to be a case for what system is fairer---we don't have the option of border hoping.

    Stand corrected tonight's last race seems the RBD Has Jammed  horses 7&8.Two horses that have NR 30. Skyline Trial  last season 61 starts 0 wins. Telpo Star last season 61 starts 0 wins.

    So the highest rated N.R in the race. IS  Rockinthebox is NR. 59.

    So if it was 30--60 NR BANDRACE.   BADROUND WHO IS 55 RATER could start A HORSE who has won 16 races  191,027 in stakes could start.and draw inside the two horses mentioned if it was RBD----Can't see fair in that if i have got it right...

    JimmyPop likes this post.

  • maybesomaybeso    77 posts
    STG, I have never seen a race NR 30 to 60. You might get a NR 56 to 60, or a NR up to 40, and so on and so forth. Further, races are usually PBD/NR and not RBD.

    The NR of a horse has no correlation to its HWOE for the most part. As we in WA do not race under NR rules the movement of a horse's NR is divorced from realty, as can be attested to by the WA horses going east with good HWOEs and low NRs. Basically you cannot overlay a form based handicapping system onto a linear system.

    Also the race you indicated is one of those fair $L5 RBD affairs. Super fair to have a L1 give a L7 a head start.
  • Rocket_ReignRocket_Reign    469 posts
    maybeso said:

    STG, I have never seen a race NR 30 to 60. You might get a NR 56 to 60, or a NR up to 40, and so on and so forth. Further, races are usually PBD/NR and not RBD.


    The NR of a horse has no correlation to its HWOE for the most part. As we in WA do not race under NR rules the movement of a horse's NR is divorced from realty, as can be attested to by the WA horses going east with good HWOEs and low NRs. Basically you cannot overlay a form based handicapping system onto a linear system.

    Also the race you indicated is one of those fair $L5 RBD affairs. Super fair to have a L1 give a L7 a head start.



    Those horses nominate for that race and in doing so nominate a long way out of their class, they don’t have to go in that race it’s not designed for them. They can find much easier races in the program

    getthechange likes this post.

  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    242 posts

    Thats ok if you can get To Mid week meetings consistently Rocket not everyone can ,need luck in the draw with GP being a leader bias track,as Colin Said Burning Rubber and Mcardles Gem have both done well ,when drawn well in these races (if they had drawn well in HWOE races they would also go well )

    JB barriers at GP 9,8,9,12,5,7,8,10 (never had much luck with barrier draws at GP)

    next 8 weeks program for a L9 Horse $L5 $1633.00 ($326 per start) (way under any of the L5$ LT conditioned set $)

    Program for L5$LT 12k races all at GP Tuesday for the next 8 Weeks all RBD 
    Program for L5$LT 8k races all at GP Tuesday for the next 8 Weeks all RBD

    Most if not All L7/L8 (CL9) PBD/L most likely draw bad but is what it is lately Favorites been of 1-4 with good horses coming through the grades which is set to continue no consideration to recent form applies to barriers just historical win $ 

    GP Friday L7/L9 RBD may be a better option than all of the above if I gotta travel to GP to race may as well be on a Friday for metro stakes ( take a chance on getting a draw )



     

    Jeremy - i would like your thoughts on the attachment 
    regards
    Colin
    There are no barrier draw conditions ? But Barrier draw doesn’t matter 

    It still seems like just an over complicated version of the drop back rule but instead you drop back in 5 starts even if placed 

    Once horses reach the bottom tier they won’t move through the L5$ system as quickly as they would through HWOE and will bounce between the bottom 2 much like the bottle necking of C1 in the MCR system with the drop back rule as it was (the only reason this hasn’t happened is due to the limited programmed L5$ races if you spread this system more it will become evident within 12 months ) also win 1 run places for 5 drop back win 1 rpt which seems like an integrity issue 

    Horses that would be competitive in their own HWOE grouping are entering these races which is not/ should not be its intended purpose 

    Adding L5$ LT conditions as an AE to level races and trying to integrate it into a drop back attributed to your level after 5 starts allowing horses to drop in level Races seems to be what you are trying to achieve 

    You might as well re introduce the drop back rule for unplaced runs 6-12 in non consecutive order up the the value 10 to drop a level as a general rule that way you can do away with the L5$ Field grouping system maybe re use it as a PBD/L5$ ,That will bring it back to 1 system in WA and horses would work up and down more equally instead of some dropping and some not based on the type of race they have been in ,also people will try harder as unplaced stakes barely covers the fuel there will be more genuine drop backs better integrity 

    AE conditions were removed at one stage but seem to be creeping back into the equations ?



    getthechange likes this post.

  • ArapahoArapaho    21 posts
    No race should be designed to advantage any horse

    Handicapping is about trying to make a field as equal as possible before they let them go.
    Unfortunately these $L5 races are designed to help higher class horses to earn by dropping down in grade and compete against lesser lights,needing those lower class horses to nominate for that whole scenario to work, 
    No matter what heading you put on a race at nomination time it doesnt  change the fact that  if you got a L15 competing against L10 s L9s down to L3s it is grossly unfair.

    Even the old system was way better than this abomination, as horses could only drop back 1 class every 10 unsuccessful starts 

    When Burning rubber L12  won his $L5 race,, his next highest rated opponents were  three L9s thats 3 classes below him (the rest were lower than that) and he can do it again in another 5 starts. THAT'S 2 IN 10.

    By putting these races on, the higher class horses, are not starting in their own HWOE grade  (as stated) which is depleting the size of those fields and reducing the numbers progressing at the top end  with less and less horses making it to FFA, 

    We need more horses at the top end and maybe then, we could push the fast class out to L16 L17 s or even further, thus giving metropolitan horses another win or two under their belt before they have to meet the real good ones.
    Maybe that would keep them in WA a little longer.

    Hopefully these $L5 races are  not taking the place of lower class races on the programme forcing these lower rated horses into these races
    I know I wouldn't nominate my L6 for a race of this type, knowing horses handicapped way above mine are going to be in it and could actually start inside me, 
    No bloody way.,.

    It would be better to have a condition race for each class (HWOE) .
    Only for horses  that  haven't earn't in their last 5 starts in that class. RBD .say 1 or 2 a month.

    Would be no handicapping issues there
    Like For Like racing

    aussiebattler, getthechange likes this post.

  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    242 posts
    edited February 11
    Thought I would look at the L5$ LT $12k race a bit this week at GP Tuesday

    Burning Rubber NZ gets a nice Draw in the 1 gate at GP Tuesday (no wonder Colin Likes them)
    L12 HWOE $74k NR 68 (advantaged by the -2 points drop in NR before they changed it ) , winner of 3 metro races won 2 starts ago in 1.57.7 home in 27.9/29.0
    Won 48k last season added another 5k this season 
    Has raced mainly in the L5$ LT races 
    You could say he has been one of the more successful in the L5$ System (but he wouldn’t be the only one )
    Some other good horses in the race though
    barrier 2 Infatuation NZ L10 - 2 metro wins and has a win / place ratio 45/68 NR 97 likely Favourite 

    May turn out to be a race for 3rd
    10 - IAM Lambros  L10 a good candidate for NR switch with a low 30 rating should get a nice run along the pegs 
    5- Crocodile Kid L12 (4 Metro wins )dropping in class may improve 
    7- Blackjack Zac L11 (4 metro wins) dropping in class should race well 
    8- Jesse Allwood L9 consistent type goes well but drawn wide 
    12- Wattabout Rioli L8 could run home late 

    Shows me that 
    RBD is not the best way to handicap these types of races with the obvious large class and form differences in the races ,if they were PBD/L or PBD/L/$L5 would they be targeted by some of the higher level horses 

    L5$ LT are not configured correctly and should cease until they have been analysed and corrected if possible ( I would like to see the figures to see if they have a higher average of short priced favourites )

    NR Horses need to be re-calibrated into the system to take away the -2 point drop Australia Wide 
    Their points calculation table is still incorrect 

    This is meant to be an easier option for L9 horses struggling in a L7/L8 (CL9) somehow I don’t think it is 







  • getthechangegetthechange    214 posts

    Thought I would look at the L5$ LT $12k race a bit this week at GP Tuesday

    Burning Rubber NZ gets a nice Draw in the 1 gate at GP Tuesday (no wonder Colin Likes them)
    L12 HWOE $74k NR 68 (advantaged by the -2 points drop in NR before they changed it ) , winner of 3 metro races won 2 starts ago in 1.57.7 home in 27.9/29.0
    Won 48k last season added another 5k this season 
    Has raced mainly in the L5$ LT races 
    You could say he has been one of the more successful in the L5$ System (but he wouldn’t be the only one )
    Some other good horses in the race though
    barrier 2 Infatuation NZ L10 - 2 metro wins and has a win / place ratio 45/68 NR 97 likely Favourite 

    May turn out to be a race for 3rd
    10 - IAM Lambros  L10 a good candidate for NR switch with a low 30 rating should get a nice run along the pegs 
    5- Crocodile Kid L12 (4 Metro wins )dropping in class may improve 
    7- Blackjack Zac L11 (4 metro wins) dropping in class should race well 
    8- Jesse Allwood L9 consistent type goes well but drawn wide 
    12- Wattabout Rioli L8 could run home late 

    Shows me that 
    RBD is not the best way to handicap these types of races with the obvious large class and form differences in the races ,if they were PBD/L or PBD/L/$L5 would they be targeted by some of the higher level horses 

    L5$ LT are not configured correctly and should cease until they have been analysed and corrected if possible ( I would like to see the figures to see if they have a higher average of short priced favourites )

    NR Horses need to be re-calibrated into the system to take away the -2 point drop Australia Wide 
    Their points calculation table is still incorrect 

    This is meant to be an easier option for L9 horses struggling in a L7/L8 (CL9) somehow I don’t think it is 







    12 starters with 1 odm - 10/1 chance to draw bar 1 - he got lucky
    should he draw wide when his last win was in L5$ LT$8k and now he is in L5$ LT$12k - last six starts in L5$ LT$12k - 6th - 3rd - 4th - 7th - 8th - 2nd 
    between his last two wins he had 18 starts(placed in the lowest races he could get in which meant staying home some weeks) for two 2nds(1 GPM) two 3rds
    L12 --three metro wins - HWOE Lt$40k - L5$ LT$20k - L5$ LT $20k -placed once in races above level 10 -     yes he is L12 but he like many others have got there by racing below that level
    Infatuation - 2 metro - HWOE Lt$40k - HWOE Lt$55k
    Crocodie Kid 3 metro - HWOE LT$40k - L5$ Lt$20k   L5$ Lt$20k
    Blackjack -4 metro - HWOE LT$40k - HWOE LT$40k - HWOE LT$40k  - L5$LT$20k
    the level 7/8/9 horses could have started in races where the above horses would be ineligible but chose this race
    there is a level 8/9 at Pin on Monday with 7 L8 horses and two L10 with concessions - not a full field they could have started there
    these races do not use their HWOE so they shouldnt be pref draw on L
    Pref draw on $L5 would mean a horse winning a level 6 like burning rubber did two starts ago would not only go up to level 8 but would draw wide for five starts
    if a pref draw is going to be added then Win$L2 should be the choice
    These races are configured correctly just not how you think they should be 
    the two systems are only loosely connected and are only connected at all to stop horses dropping to quickly - L9 horses can avoid the horses in this race by racing at GPM in HWOE $LT$40k or in the level 7/8/9 type races, entry level for L9 horses into the L5$ LT races is level 8 but that isnt necessarily where they are going to find their earning level - a progressive type L9 may win and go up to level 10 - the L9 that struggles drops to level 6 after five starts without winning at level 8 or level 4 after another five without winning at level 6
    Just Barney being L9 with his last four starts having been in L8 races is currently eligible for the L5$LT $12k race but one more start in a level 8 race and he will be eigible for the L5$ Lt$8k(level 6) race- 
    starting in HWOE LT$40k will make him five starts away from th L5$LT$8k(level6) race 
  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    242 posts
    Just Barney being L9 with his last four starts having been in L8 races is currently eligible for the L5$LT $12k race but one more start in a level 8 race and he will be eigible for the L5$ Lt$8k(level 6) race- 
    starting in HWOE LT$40k will make him five starts away from th L5$LT$8k(level6) race 

    Last 4 starts PBD/L havent had a decent barrier for a couple of years ,so your saying if a chance it in a metro (M0) race LT$40k  or a LT $40 at pinjarra (RL9) with a RBD draw bad finish midfield or worse I am still only eligable for the L5$LT 12k for the next 5 starts and horses with metro wins and recent form deserve a chance to draw better ,thats not Handicapping
     
    below is the last time JB drew 1-4 
    barrier 1 nov2019
    barrier 2 nov2019
    barrier 3 Jan2020
    Barrier 4 Jun2019

    seems you want to handicap people out or the industry 
    you don''t get my vote of confidence 

    Im done discussing the issue on this or any other site 

    AND YES HE SHOULD DRAW WIDE  

    JayJay, VillageKid, Betonme, curmudgeon likes this post.

  • JayJayJayJay    6,246 posts
    Yep, white flag from me as well on the alleged handicapping system, complete waste of time continuing, taken up driving spikes under my fingernails. It has been a shambles from the outset and no sign of it ever abating. I'm done.

    VillageKid, maybeso, curmudgeon likes this post.

  • MarkovinaMarkovina    1,606 posts
    Iv got to say - Art Tutor last night - it was easily - by a mile the most impressive of the ex WA horses now performing in NSW

    It had a horrendously hard  run ( in a decent handy field ) and brained them - 28.4 last qtr after the work it did - there was no respite for it in the whole race 

    Only still a 6 year old ( surprised me ) i can remember it being based in Albany for  a fair while - seems to been around for ever 

    My prediction - on last nights effort  ( because it went like a machine )- it will win 2-3 Sat night races at Menangle - 

    Interesting the bloke whos got it in Sydney - he is a Tony Sivilvich  type trainer - hes had 3-4 cast offs - and has he improved them 
  • getthechangegetthechange    214 posts

    Just Barney being L9 with his last four starts having been in L8 races is currently eligible for the L5$LT $12k race but one more start in a level 8 race and he will be eigible for the L5$ Lt$8k(level 6) race- 
    starting in HWOE LT$40k will make him five starts away from th L5$LT$8k(level6) race 

    Last 4 starts PBD/L havent had a decent barrier for a couple of years ,so your saying if a chance it in a metro (M0) race LT$40k  or a LT $40 at pinjarra (RL9) with a RBD draw bad finish midfield or worse I am still only eligable for the L5$LT 12k for the next 5 starts and horses with metro wins and recent form deserve a chance to draw better ,thats not Handicapping
     
    below is the last time JB drew 1-4 
    barrier 1 nov2019
    barrier 2 nov2019
    barrier 3 Jan2020
    Barrier 4 Jun2019

    seems you want to handicap people out or the industry 
    you don''t get my vote of confidence 

    Im done discussing the issue on this or any other site 

    AND YES HE SHOULD DRAW WIDE  
  • getthechangegetthechange    214 posts
    Jeremy - take it up with GT and KH 
    I have raised this on numerous occasions and put forward suggestions to fix but to no avail
    To be clear I agree that Just Barney should be able to start in the HWOE LT$40k without starting a new five count 
     whether or not his next start is in a level 8 race I think the the next time he does start in a level 8 it should make him eligible for the level 6 and he should be able to race above that level 6 and
    that should only change if he wins
    Basically make it five starts at the required level regardless of the start levels and the number of starts
    eg Level 9 horse starts in race level 8-8-9-9-8-9-9-10-8-9-8 = five starts without winning at level 8 makes the horse eligible for level 6
    currently the above race levels would have the horse start level as 9 and eligible for the L5$ LT$12k race and still four starts level 8 starts away from being eligible for the  level 6 race
    doesnt look that hard to fix but maybe not computer program wise 
     think the concern has been a horse getting back to say level 6 then running places in level 12 races and being able to drop back to level 6 - currently the start level stops that from happening 


  • Rocket_ReignRocket_Reign    469 posts
    Markovina said:

    Iv got to say - Art Tutor last night - it was easily - by a mile the most impressive of the ex WA horses now performing in NSW


    It had a horrendously hard  run ( in a decent handy field ) and brained them - 28.4 last qtr after the work it did - there was no respite for it in the whole race 

    Only still a 6 year old ( surprised me ) i can remember it being based in Albany for  a fair while - seems to been around for ever 

    My prediction - on last nights effort  ( because it went like a machine )- it will win 2-3 Sat night races at Menangle - 

    Interesting the bloke whos got it in Sydney - he is a Tony Sivilvich  type trainer - hes had 3-4 cast offs - and has he improved them 



    Would definitely take you up on a bet that he doesn’t win 3 at Menangle metro, his racing style won’t suit that big track at all unless of course that fella is as clever as Tony then it might win an inters

    freodockers likes this post.

  • BetonmeBetonme    183 posts
    A key issue we were having with a horse that's now racing successfully over east. He was HWOE of 42k. He had never won a race in the city, but couldn't get into the less than 40k's. So was graded amongst city winners when going to town. We tried the L5$ route, but would get to like 4 starts, then he would get a ballot and we would end up in another race rather than sit him in a paddock for another week. Then we would have to start the whole 5 start thing again. Anyhow he's happily racing against like for like horses over east!

    JayJay, curmudgeon likes this post.

  • GilgameshGilgamesh    3,664 posts
    Jeromy I commend you for continuing and putting as much though as you have in to it for this long
  • MarkovinaMarkovina    1,606 posts
    Genuine question re the 2 handicapping systems which there has been alot of debate over

    I was listening this morning to Brittany Graham ( outstanding harness racing commentator by the way ) to her audio previews on TAB.Com of all the Albion Park races tonight before i put my bets on their 

    Race 5 was where she made an interesting comment 

    She tipped Grant Dixons horse to win - then for 2nd she said  Rockita ( no 7 outside front ) she said look this horse ran 2nd again last week - she then said - look this horse just cant draw a gate because of the National Rating system 

    My ears twigged when i heard that comment
  • savethegamesavethegame    2,106 posts
    edited February 13
    N.R. System horse in GATE one is a N.R.43 RATER -- Rockita is a N.R. 97. RATER. well placed to run tickets has  metro-band of 0 so run places to the cows come home for metro place money?

    So Brittany.another one that has trouble thinking fair. wants a  97 rater to draw inside 43,47,53,54,56 71;Rockita 97. SR. 59- 60-----Or does she have genuine beef with N.R.
     
    So if you owned Bettor Be Oscar what would be the best play for him? going forward---ticky ticky-touch-wood.

    Still got no idea what is the fairer system.probably have to work out thousands of hypothetically scenarios. for both systemsThe longevity of the standardbred allows up & down the tree. Which trainers are entilted to capitalize on a good horse---Punters cop the sting.trying to factor the intent.of  a drop-back pending 
  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    242 posts
    No comment 
  • Rocket_ReignRocket_Reign    469 posts
    The people I talk to over east hate the NR just as much as the people here hate our system, the problem is always going to be people have their own certain horses it doesn’t suit so they won’t like it

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  • getthechangegetthechange    214 posts
    jeremy wrote
    L5$ LT are not configured correctly and should cease until they have been analysed and corrected if possible ( I would like to see the figures to see if they have a higher average of short priced favourites )

    Nov/dec pref draws attached
    docx
    docx
    Pref Draws.docx
    50K

    Rocket_Reign likes this post.

  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    242 posts

    jeremy wrote

    L5$ LT are not configured correctly and should cease until they have been analysed and corrected if possible ( I would like to see the figures to see if they have a higher average of short priced favourites )

    Nov/dec pref draws attached
    ?
  • savethegamesavethegame    2,106 posts


    N.R. System horse in GATE one is a N.R.43 RATER -- Rockita is a N.R. 97. RATER. well placed to run tickets has  metro-band of 0 so run places to the cows come home for metro place money?


    So Brittany.another one that has trouble thinking fair. wants a  97 rater to draw inside 43,47,53,54,56 71;Rockita 97. SR. 59- 60-----Or does she have genuine beef with N.R.
     

    When thurlow turned the mop---you knew it was  party time into. 2.30 on the billy goat. gee made miss ruby sunshine  a good chance at menangle --Rockita ran second going 1.52.7.to M.R.S. l/week. at A.P.  -----M.R.S  goes 1.52.1 tonight. at menangle.unless --brittany bowled a curve ball. with  Dixons horse------mentioned in S.R --- U.R.P.-- Marko.
  • JimmyPopJimmyPop    169 posts
    edited February 15
    Markovina said:

    Genuine question re the 2 handicapping systems which there has been alot of debate over


    I was listening this morning to Brittany Graham ( outstanding harness racing commentator by the way ) to her audio previews on TAB.Com of all the Albion Park races tonight before i put my bets on their 

    Race 5 was where she made an interesting comment 

    She tipped Grant Dixons horse to win - then for 2nd she said  Rockita ( no 7 outside front ) she said look this horse ran 2nd again last week - she then said - look this horse just cant draw a gate because of the National Rating system 

    My ears twigged when i heard that comment
    She is an absolute pain to listen to. The trouble with both systems is they are both convoluted. Make it easy for both industry and punters alike to understand. You need a degree to understand the WA system and most of the industry didn't go beyond high school.

    savethegame likes this post.

  • Rocket_ReignRocket_Reign    469 posts
    JimmyPop said:

    Markovina said:

    Genuine question re the 2 handicapping systems which there has been alot of debate over


    I was listening this morning to Brittany Graham ( outstanding harness racing commentator by the way ) to her audio previews on TAB.Com of all the Albion Park races tonight before i put my bets on their 

    Race 5 was where she made an interesting comment 

    She tipped Grant Dixons horse to win - then for 2nd she said  Rockita ( no 7 outside front ) she said look this horse ran 2nd again last week - she then said - look this horse just cant draw a gate because of the National Rating system 

    My ears twigged when i heard that comment
    She is an absolute pain to listen to. 



    She’s very knowledgeable and very good for the industry

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  • MarkovinaMarkovina    1,606 posts
    Just looking at the early fixed odds on TAB.Com.au  for NorthamSat night

    Going through the races - got to the Village Kid sprint - which is a time honoured race and a very good race - 20k 

    And i just saw the craziest weirdest handicapping field selection of all time - Gordon what in hell is it doing in that race 

    I will be looking forward to the explanation of this 
  • Rocket_ReignRocket_Reign    469 posts
    Markovina said:

    Just looking at the early fixed odds on TAB.Com.au  for NorthamSat night


    Going through the races - got to the Village Kid sprint - which is a time honoured race and a very good race - 20k 

    And i just saw the craziest weirdest handicapping field selection of all time - Gordon what in hell is it doing in that race 

    I will be looking forward to the explanation of this 



    It nominated for it there was only 10 noms and no ballots so it got a start
  • JayJayJayJay    6,246 posts
    Village Kid Sprint conditions:

    L7/8 (CL9) CONDITIONED. 3YO and older. L7/8 (CL9) HWOE LT $32,500
    (CONCESSIONS HWOE LT $40,000)
    AE - HWOE LT $70,000 With L5$ LT $2,250.
    AE 4YO+ HWOE LT $55,000 With 0 Metro Staked Wins as a 3YO or Older and LT 3 Wins L10 and 10+ WA starts.
    Preference to HWOE $18,500+
    (RL8)
    (Concessions for Novice Driver,Fillies & Mares). RBD.

    Simples
  • MarkovinaMarkovina    1,606 posts
    It would be interesting to contrast the entry conditions for the Geelong Rocket tonight 

    That was also a sprint race - a mile - with 24k stake - so pretty simillar type of race

    And i would bet my bottom dollar that a horse of Gordons calibre and race record - would not get within a bulls roar of the entry requirements for that Geelong rocket 
  • Rocket_ReignRocket_Reign    469 posts
    Markovina said:

    It would be interesting to contrast the entry conditions for the Geelong Rocket tonight 


    That was also a sprint race - a mile - with 24k stake - so pretty simillar type of race

    And i would bet my bottom dollar that a horse of Gordons calibre and race record - would not get within a bulls roar of the entry requirements for that Geelong rocket 



    You know a maiden can nominate for a Friday night free for all right? Just because you can doesn’t mean you should though
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