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Belmont 12/6/21
West Australian Racing
Train
186 posts
R1- Best Bet: EXPRESS TIME looks a class above Westspeed 58+ opposition. Her trial when allowed to roll was very good but was held back to the field in a 66+ first up behind Amasenus. That was a quality line up and although finishing ninth she was actually a pretty good effort to be beaten less than 3L. Looks like finding the front by default here and if they let her run like in the trial it looks her race to lose.
R2- GUARD THE SAFE comes from the Same race as the two other favourites but has a few things in his favour. All three were good runs and siding with the horse I feel has the most ability. Is still very raw but has been drawing low which doesn’t really suit him. Barrier three out of seven should allow him to avoid being stuck on the fence and feel that can be the key to him breaking through.
R3- SHE’S GOD TO YOU is a talented, foolproof filly. She jumps, races on speed and can sustain a high cruising speed. Showcased all of that second up when beating a quality 3yo field in slick time before being ridden conservatively from an outside gate two back and hitting the line okay. Ran third in the Raconteur last week finishing within 3L of Graceful Girl and Billy Ain’t Silly. Super form for a race like this.
R4- BLOW ME OUT has been going okay since returning this prep but has shown she’s better than that in the past. Finished off okay in a fast race first up before hitting the line fairly when third in a race dominated by those on speed. Gets blinkers and a lugging bit added which improved a stablemate earlier in the week and draws a gate to sit a little closer. Should get a decent speed here to help her really let down here.
R5- PULI beat a strong 60+ field last when fighting all the way to the line. Did so with 60kg and running good time so although now having to carry 62kg he looks more than capable. Ran third in a class five first up but did clear out from fourth and has always promised to go through the grades. Will need to jump quick to hold the fence but can handle the pressure he’ll likely face. Looking for two on the bounce and this looks easier than what he beat last start.
R6- NERODIO proved what he can do back at Belmont last start. Ran three good placings at Ascot at the start of his campaign before a strong last start win at his pet track/trip. Was able to sit just in behind the speed, copped a little squeeze into the turn but let down powerfully when asked for an effort to win well. Looks like he may find the one one again and from there will look to go four from four at the Belmont 1000.
R7- NOT TO BE MIST has refound since a couple of gear changes three back. Won the race three back beating talented 3yo filly Watch Me Dance before an okay performance when breezing. Last start was finishing off well behind another top 3yo in Billy Ain’t Silly in a fast run mile. Like the three weeks between runs for this race and looks like getting a soft run midfield with cover. Has proven he can run well off a fast or slow speed. Interesting to see which he gets here.
R8- THE VELVET KING was ultra impressive first up in the Belmont Sprint. Elected to bypass the Roma Cup for a third trial prior to the run and was still able to sit over the top of a cracking speed and run a good final section. Took a little bit to hit top gear in the straight but once he got going he left them standing. The tempo doesn’t look as strong here but he is versatile and from the low gate should again find himself in the first four. Any overnight rain is a big bonus.
R9- LADY DUCKWORTH is looking to make it four on the bounce and remain undefeated at 2000+. Won a shocking Bunbury maiden in the wrong part of the track before belting a class one field by 5L. Was a month and a half between runs last start at 2100, although had trialled, but was impressive. Got shuffled back along the fence and had to pick up quickly. Looks a horse who will be suited from a wide gate here so she’ll get racing room and is from a family of winners.
R2- GUARD THE SAFE comes from the Same race as the two other favourites but has a few things in his favour. All three were good runs and siding with the horse I feel has the most ability. Is still very raw but has been drawing low which doesn’t really suit him. Barrier three out of seven should allow him to avoid being stuck on the fence and feel that can be the key to him breaking through.
R3- SHE’S GOD TO YOU is a talented, foolproof filly. She jumps, races on speed and can sustain a high cruising speed. Showcased all of that second up when beating a quality 3yo field in slick time before being ridden conservatively from an outside gate two back and hitting the line okay. Ran third in the Raconteur last week finishing within 3L of Graceful Girl and Billy Ain’t Silly. Super form for a race like this.
R4- BLOW ME OUT has been going okay since returning this prep but has shown she’s better than that in the past. Finished off okay in a fast race first up before hitting the line fairly when third in a race dominated by those on speed. Gets blinkers and a lugging bit added which improved a stablemate earlier in the week and draws a gate to sit a little closer. Should get a decent speed here to help her really let down here.
R5- PULI beat a strong 60+ field last when fighting all the way to the line. Did so with 60kg and running good time so although now having to carry 62kg he looks more than capable. Ran third in a class five first up but did clear out from fourth and has always promised to go through the grades. Will need to jump quick to hold the fence but can handle the pressure he’ll likely face. Looking for two on the bounce and this looks easier than what he beat last start.
R6- NERODIO proved what he can do back at Belmont last start. Ran three good placings at Ascot at the start of his campaign before a strong last start win at his pet track/trip. Was able to sit just in behind the speed, copped a little squeeze into the turn but let down powerfully when asked for an effort to win well. Looks like he may find the one one again and from there will look to go four from four at the Belmont 1000.
R7- NOT TO BE MIST has refound since a couple of gear changes three back. Won the race three back beating talented 3yo filly Watch Me Dance before an okay performance when breezing. Last start was finishing off well behind another top 3yo in Billy Ain’t Silly in a fast run mile. Like the three weeks between runs for this race and looks like getting a soft run midfield with cover. Has proven he can run well off a fast or slow speed. Interesting to see which he gets here.
R8- THE VELVET KING was ultra impressive first up in the Belmont Sprint. Elected to bypass the Roma Cup for a third trial prior to the run and was still able to sit over the top of a cracking speed and run a good final section. Took a little bit to hit top gear in the straight but once he got going he left them standing. The tempo doesn’t look as strong here but he is versatile and from the low gate should again find himself in the first four. Any overnight rain is a big bonus.
R9- LADY DUCKWORTH is looking to make it four on the bounce and remain undefeated at 2000+. Won a shocking Bunbury maiden in the wrong part of the track before belting a class one field by 5L. Was a month and a half between runs last start at 2100, although had trialled, but was impressive. Got shuffled back along the fence and had to pick up quickly. Looks a horse who will be suited from a wide gate here so she’ll get racing room and is from a family of winners.
Comments
Apollo
Panzdown
Valour Road
Decoy Noxious
The main man Mitch also rides Puli today, very interested to see how he navigates this galloper with that serious impost.Guess connections prefer not to claim we will see what sort of a judge Darren Taylor is.. i would ove to see him win again, there will be some pressure on speed as Train said but he should be able hold the front and kick boy...KICK!
Terrific race that on an average day, field sizes - when is something going to be done ?!!
Saturday 14-16 horse fields - get them back.
The best roughies - Come Play With Me and Uni Time.
If Kay Cee and The Sunshine Band wins I’ll walk to China! Just 7/1 sheeeeeeesh. ( Will get one of them wrong one day, gone close a few times haha ).
33/1 today and not the worst, wouldn’t leave out of first four calculations anyway. Just the Durant factor there.
Not that he was ever gone(spring trip east didn't pan out s..t happens)but he is back mate!!
Very well suited at WFA would give them all weight off his rating and is now into 2.50(from 3.80 wish I had got some of that price), Kay Cee on her older form would be the main danger.
He ran 2,2,2,3 in his last winter prep including running 2nd to Perfect Jewel twice when a bit unlucky in both, preceded by a resuming run where narrowly beaten by Vega Magic when wide the trip!
Looks the goods to me could argue he is getting a bit skinny in price now.
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.
Will be the greatest turnaround in form since Glastonbury won the Metropolitan Handicap way back when.
Does have one thing in favour - the name Parnham attached.
hash likes this post.
Dance Music she’s another consistent one.
Was a bit surprised Valour Road was out the gate to $14 this morning but now back into $12.
Thunderstruck, Ridersonthestorm33, detonator, Chris likes this post.
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.
6/6 no mean effort either.
Brad Rawiller perfect ride on the winner who got out to as much as $14 this morning.
A bit underrated the mare Dance Music hardly seen her run a bad race, just the last 100 metres can find her out.
The one running on again out wide - Uni Time. Another very good run at the unsuitable WFA. Dig Deep he wasn’t too far away again either.
If layed The Velvet King it was easy to watch.
Jim Taylor trainer of the winner, year after year continues to do a wonderful job. What a great little hoop he was too. Got better and better.
Bloody hell did you even watch TVK's race?? (Took me 9 hours too go there again ugghh)
I was on unfortunately it missed the kick badly, his race was over after that but thought he went pretty well seeing as he was 4 pairs further back than the preferred position.
As for the other favourite, it went up 5 kgs drew wide so had to go back and met the winner 4 kilos worse at the weights.
CJP maybe could have maybe waited a bit longer to jump on the go pedal(i only watched the replay once)when he didn't got pushed very wide the last 600 odd metres, horse only tires the last 75 beaten under 2 lengths was a pretty good run under the circs...imo
You should do more form ;) or just back Train's tips?!
Whatisthepoint, JimmyPop, Gilgamesh likes this post.