A couple of average rounds from Homa sees him 13 shots back from leader Scheffler who is rampaging away from the field. Hovland never been a factor all tournament either.
One more week next week then a well.earned break till Sentry Tournament of Champions.
It's the hit and giggle tournament starting tonight in the PGA. No form can really be down for this, previously known as the QBE shootout, now the Grant Thornton Invitational
It's modified format each day and teams of 2 (male and female players).
Not spending much time here. Have backed Lud the Stud (Aberg) with his partner Magdalene Sagstrom. They are second in the betting behind Toney Finau and Nelly Korda.
3 units Aberg/Sagstrom at 7.87 to collect 23.6 units.
Better viewing in the Alfred Dunhill in South Africa. I've had something on Marco Penge at $91. Not recorded as they have already started but he has opened with a respectable 3 under 69.
Aberg and Sagstrom are 4 back after round 1 in what was a scoring fest in the 2 ball scramble. Everything should level itself out tonight with alternate shot
Over in Europe, my man Penge was 1 back after 36 holes and then after 6 holes today was 3 ahead. He's given a few back since and is now 5 back from Oosthuizen, who hasn't been sighted for 5 years and all of a sudden shoots a course record. His LiV mate Schwatzel also on fire.
I feel the young man Penge has run his race unless something amazing happen in today's last 3 holes and tomorrow
Not done with yet as they are only 8 holes in with a suspension of play yesterday. Penge still 6 back though after birdies on first two holes but faultering with 2 bogies straight away. We live in hope but not holding our breath. Am hoping for a top 10 and a collect off this.
In the US, Aberg and Sagstrom just fall short after carding a best of the day round of 60. They went down by 2 shots to Day/KO team. Unfortunately their even par on Saturday put load to their chances.
We begin the year with the Sentry. That's it. No Tournament of Champions anymore, given this is now a signature event with 60 players with varying qualifications. Previously, this was a winners only invitational, but kow,.like with most things in the Tour, has been changed in the ever increased pressure of LIV golf.
Kapalua is generally a birdie fest, with montages of the whales and surfers in Hawaii. Wide fairways and no wind makes this a great start for the year to get players comfortable with their game.
For the second year in a row, there will be no defending champion present due to Rahms departure to LIV. This leaves things open at the top.
As.with the last few years I'll make a few predictions for the year.
I think that Scheffler and Hovland may have record breaking years and be battling out the majority of events this year. No genius here, but these two are head and shoulders above, especially Scheffler where the putter looks to have returned and he decimated the Hero WC field a few weeks ago.
Scheffler to win 5 times and a major.
Hovland will win a major this year.
For this tournament, a soft start to the year.
Scheffler headlines the field with Hovland second in the betting. A juicy $4 is available about either winning, which I'm happy to take. 10 units here
Using Tabtouchs money back and bonus 10% special on Scheffler. His price is boosted to 6.50 and money back if he loses by 5 or less shots. Seems a.good bet here and another 3 units here.
Lastly some novelties.
Scheffler/Hovland each way exact (1-2) finishing order, each combo at $67. 1 unit on each
Lastly, Scheffler to win AND have a hole in one, 0.5 units at $251.
2 rounds down and my boys are doing what was expected. Scheffler leads the field by 1 and a further 1 back is Hovland at -14. Scoring was ultra low, if you didn't shoot 66 or lower you were out of it. I don't mind these events and the low scoring, shows how good these guys actually are.
Hopefully Scheffler and Hovland are going toe to toe on the back nine on Sunday.
Disappointing Saturday by both Scheffler and Hovland.
Both weren't able to score as well as the previous days and Hovlands tournament ended on hole 14 (easiest hole) where he took a triple bogey 7? He finished the day 1 under after being -4 for the day then dropping 4 shots in 2 holes. Can't do that here.
Scheffler not much better. He shot 2 under for the day but significantly parred his last 6 holes which are holes everyone was birdieing. He finished at -18.
He is 3 behind Chris Kirk and to be honest, he would have to pull out a 64 to win such is the low scoring. Yes it's possible but you can't afford to have one bad round here.
Hopefully he can finish within 5 for money back. Even better win.
It was a weekend clinic by Kirk to beat the field of stars and showed his calm temperament was the key to scoring low and keeping the pressure on. He shot a Sunday 65 which was just enough to hold off Theegala and Spieth down the stretch by 1 and 2 shots respectively, which proved that you need to keep going low at Kapalua and make no mistakes of you want to win.
Disappointingly it's New Ywar and old Scottie with his putter being the problem on the weekend again. He finished 4 back of the winner and easily dropped those 4 shots in the last nine holes. He shot a Sunday 66 (-7) which is normally excellent however the field average for the day was a 67 so in all he was only 1 better than the field. When you are 3 back at the start of the day this is not good enough.
He did do enough though to finish withing 5 shots, so money back on that wager.
Liked the look of Theegala this week and also Sungjae I'm who head to Wailai this week for the Sony Open.
We head to Waialae Country Club for the 2024 Sony Open.
Par 72 playing a touch over 7000 yards with 17 meters of elevation (last week was 140!).
If you tuned in last week to Kapalua and thought that was Hawaii swing golf, then you would be wrong. Last week was a hit and giggle compared to this layout and will separate the men from the boys.
This year has attracted a pretty good field of players, some that competed last week and most who are re joining the tour for the 2024 season either coming off holiday breaks or the Korn Ferry Tour.
Last week at Kapalua, the scores were low and the advantages that players would normally find off the tee etc were eliminated by the undulating course allowing all baals to collect in similar regions to provide a second shot golf course.
Here at Waialae, this is also a second shot course, BUT, only if you can keep in in the fairways, who are much narrower and more penal if missed.
Kapalua last week was undulating, in fact, one of the most on the tour. Here at Waialae, it is the 3rd flattest course on the tour. Any easier walk? I do not think so.
Statistically, this course is broken down in to a few metrics, all to do with the off the tee game. The overall strokes gained metric off the tee (OTT SG) may be may look benign at first glance, however, diving deeper reveals a whole lot more under the surface. Sub metrics of OTT strokes gained can be divided into two other categories of Missed Fairways Penalty and also Driver length advantage. Essentially these two sub metrics are explaining the advantages and disavantages of accuracy and length off the tee.
Here at Waialae, this course has one of the biggest Missed Faiway Penalties on tour. When you miss a fairway here, it costs you 0.15 strokes to the field. This may not sound like much, but if you hit 7 of 14 fairways (and all other metrics being equal) then you have given away over 1 stroke per round to the field. Over 4 days this is 4 shots and with the margins of error so small at this level, this becomes more important than ever.
The consequence of missing the fairway is the the 3 inch rough that lines the course. Again, 3 inches aint much (so i hear haha), however if the ball is sat down the player will have to compete with 2 inches of wispy grass around the ball...if you can find it.....
Briefly, the Driver Length Advantage also comes into play with thos accurate and long. Statistically, the longer a player is down the fairway, their strokes gained on that hole significatly INCREASES as their proximity decreases.
Does this mean anything. I dont know. But it forces us to not only look at players who are playing well, with good course history etc, but we are looking for the most accurate and long drivers of the ball in the field.
Crunching the numbers, one player stands out in the length category and thats the favorite, Ludvig Aberg. He leads the field in distance over a smaller sample size, but nonetheless, his length is an advantage. Similarly, he is very accurate at around 68% of fairways. So he is a good start, but as the favorite and $17, he might be worth a punt later in the week if you are so inclined. His week last week was 1 good round amongst 3 average rounds. Encouraging for his supporters, his best round was on a Sunday, giving some recency bias to his betting number and exposed recent form. Was he knocking the rust off or is it something else. I think Ill keep him in the back pocket for now as there are others that represent better pre tournamnet value.
The three I have landed on have a mix of length, accuracy and form to go on.
Firstly, Im looking at Open Championship winner Brian Harman. NOT a long hitter by any stretch, but absolutely pin point accurate off the tee. He will hit the majority of fairways and give himself the best opportunity to hit greens in regulation, which is important, as he has been filling it up with the putter and is notoriously good on the flate surface. He gained a ton of strokes on the green last week and also leads this field in total strokes gained. Finished with Scheffler at T5 last week. Good enough for me at $21.
Next in the betting is JT Poston. Last week it was an absolute stripe fest off the tee for him. Go have a look at his highlights from last Sunday on the pgatour.com app. Its all stripes. He hits it sneaky long and also had a great start to last week finishing on the heels of the leaders. Putting is excellent and this is a great spot for him coming off last week. He is $34.
Lastly, a bit of a punt on recency here. Im going for ald mate Harris English. Coming off a surgery year last year, he has shown glimpses of being back to his best late last year and last week he was tremendous in all categories, finishing in T14. When on song, he is deadly accurate and collected in his play, which seemingly has returned in full now. Im willing to have a crack this week. Can drive the ball long and straight and has the confidence back from his successful surgery last year. $41 is available.
Playing these three at the prices will get you back $9.85 back for every $1 invested.
Im having 10 units this week on this for a collect of 98.5 units back.
Round 1 in the books at the Sony and it was a case of who could handle the wind the best.
That title went to Cameron Davis who shot an opening 62 (-8) who is 2 shots clear of Tyler Montgomery at -6.
My three blokes were excellent, unlucky and OK.
Harris English shot a handy -4 in the wind in the afternoon wave which leaves him in good stead for the round 2 morning wave start.
Harman finsihed at -1 and didnt hit a putt all day while Poston ground out Even par.
Davis is now $5 favorite from Chris Kirk at $13. Harris English now $17.
If diving in now, Chris Kirk is a nice play as well as English. For those wondering, pre tournamnet favorite Aberg finuished at Even par and is now $51. If you are going to have something on Aberg then now is the time.
Well a good day for Kirk and English who sit only 1 back of the lead in a massive log jam at -9 and -8. They are pretty much my only hopes. .JT poston and Harman are at -3 and -4 respectively and while only 5 and 6 off the lead, it looks as though something dramatic will have to happen for them to get the W. In fairness, Harman has hit 0 putts this week, shaving cups from everywhere and they will not drop. Hopefully his luck changes on the weekend.
It looks like a tight weekend of golf in Hawaii and the watching times are more friendly with early to mid mornings viewing.
3 rounds down and for me, Kirk sits 3 back of leaders Keegan Bradley and Grayson Murray. Anything can happen on the last day and I still hold a little hope for Harman who is 6 back. English and poston look a bridge too far.
If you are betting now, Bradley and Kirk represent good value. They have non winners around them and I expect them to be fighting things out. Keegan is $3 while Kirk is $11. You could play these two for a profit at around $2.35 odds.
Good viewing and I'm hoping for a Kirk or Harman miracle.
Sorry for the late update, last week we just fell short with JT Poston coming home with round of the week to fall only 2 short in the end.
Current balance at -84.8 units
Preview up later on.
But first some breaking news in the golf world.
Today at PGN (Perth Golf Network) Maylands Competition, I was fortunate enough to snag a hole in one on hole 16.
Par 3, playing 144m, into the wind. It was the best thinned 6 iron I've ever hit. Straight at the pin. Hit the up slope at the green and popped up. Rolling, rolling, rolling, it's straight at it and rests nicely on the flag stick for about 2 seconds then falls in.
This week we are back to a Signature series event at the American Express. Lots of the big dogs are playing which makes it harder and now we throw in a 3 course rotation just to completely melt the mind and the models. As I saidt here are three in play this week, hosted by the Pete Dye Stadium Course (Formally known as PGA West or PGA West Stadium Course in most instances). Each golfer will play one round at the Stadium Course, one round at La Quinta Country Club, and one round at the Nicklaus Tournament Course – before the cut and will return to the Stadium Course for the final round.
Stadium Course: Par 72 | 7,187 Yards – 69.260 Scoring Avg Last Year La Quinta Country Club: Par 72 | 7,060 Yards – 69.584 Nicklaus Tournament Course: Par 72 | 7,147 Yards – 68.724
Because the PGA Stadium course is the course that will be played twice, and more importantly, last, this is the course that metrics will be applied.
This is A. Easier and B. the only data I have acess to.
So looking at total weighted strokes gained and recenct form, Ive come up with the folowing plays
Same as two weeks ago, the safest play is the play Scheffler with the TAB money back special. That is, you get +10% on the price and money back if loses by less than 5 shots.
So like last fortnight, 3 units on here.
Next we come to the lineup, for 10 units.
Cantlay $9 - Best player in the filed behind Scheffler. Has good history here as well.
Sunjae Im $19 - Set the record for most birdies over 72 holes in the Sentry and has excellent course history at PGA Stadium. He'll suck me in this week as he showed form and at a course he likes
JT Poston $34 - Another one to suck me in with his recnt play. Round of the week last week and has been low key piling up top 10s over the last 5 months.
Finau $41 - Wasnt interested but he had one of the nest weighted strokes gained metrics over the last 5 years here and at the price is worth a stab
10 units here will gross back 45.97 units
Lastly, I was chatting to a fellow golf enthusiast about how Min Woo Lee was going to be an auto bet for me this year unitl he wins one. Well last night I found a market for Min Woo Lee to win 1+ events on any PGA tour sanctioned event (including majors) at $3.50.
5 units here for me to collect 17.5 units. Now im on all year and because he has his PGA Tour card he will front up many times on the tour, so now I dont have to think about it!!
Well not even close this week. Never in the hunt. No hope.
Amateur Nick Dunlap wins the AMEX at the staggering odds of around 500-1 and did it with a record breaking 60 on Saturday. The scoring was low all week and anything worse than 6 under was nowhere near good enough. The cit was set at 12 under par after 3 rounds and most were out of it come round 4.
The best hopes were Sam Burns and Justin Thomas to chase down the amateur but in the end it was a bridge too far. Burns actually should have won but finished with 2 double bogey water balls to eject from contention, leaving Dunlap to par the last to win by one shot from Christian Bezedenhoit.
Dunlap broke many records, 2 of which were youngest amateur since 1910 to win on the tour and also one of only 7 ever. The last was Phil in 1991.
He also is the only other player ever to win the US Junior and US amateur than ofcourse Tiger Woods.
He is in good company.
As mentioned, all my blokes were never in the hunt. Disappointing most was Scheffler, who after that Hero win has failed to dominate as expected. I feel these first swing events are still a time for players to work out their game and the courses they play are not easy, but are at a level that these golfers all even out at.
This week the tour heads to Farmers Insurance at Torrey Pines which is a real big boy course. There will be no 29 under winning score here I would think. Also, the tournament starts on Wednesday night here so a day earlier than normal.
That was unbelievable from Dunlap. when he doubled the par 3. Well let's just say when I was watching, I thought he was cooked and wouldn't finish top 10.
Course - Torrey Pines North (Rd 2) and South (Rds 1, 3, 4)
Last year won by Max Homa
South Course plays Par 72 and a monster 7565 yards!
The tour heads to the Farmers to Torrey Pines, the site of many a historic moment and of US Open fame. Rest assured, the winning score will be around 13-16 under par this week.
Last week the scoring was phenomenal, aided by the course setups and the fact that basically, these guys are absolute machines. When courses are set to "Easy" mode, it brings the field closer together because the talent level is so high.
If last week was set to "Easy mode", then this week we are on the "Nightmare" difficulty (shout out to all those Doom and Quake players of the early 2000s).
No God Mode (54 hole cut) available this week. Make a mistake and you could be going home before the weekend.
The statistics employed here will be solely rated to the South course as this will be played 3 times in the 4 days. Essentially, make the weekend and you have 2 days of southern hell.
The south course seemingly relies on Driving accuracy (rated 15/50), which isnt a surprise given the height and thickness of the rough. Miss a fairway by a short magin and it could mean a lot of pain. Interestingly, miss a fairway by alot and it could actually be beneficial.
Diving deep into the lesser knwon stats, approach play from between 150-200 yards rates highly aswell. Again, not too surpising given the length of the course and the fact that good, accurate drives will be "rewarded" with a longer iron into the green. No bomb and guage here!
Another nugget for those with their fingers on the pulse is the fact that is is currently dumping rain on the course as we speak. What does this mean? This means that preferred lies might be the order of the first two days and if so, levels up those who manage to hit the fairways.
Lets play as if there are preferred lies in play.
Players with the most rounds here in order are
Im
Matsuyama
Woodland
Streelman
Schauffele
if you think experience at the course is a factor, these might be a good place to start.
Best Off the tee stats with most rounds played are
List
Schuaffele
Best approach with most rounds are
Morikawa
Bradley
Best overall strokes gained with at least 8 rounds played at Torrey Pines
Morikawa
Im
Schuaffele
You start seing a bit of a pattern and recurring names. If you just want the best overall with no minimum rounds here then these guys might be your flavour
SH Kim
Morikawa
Im
Stevens
Rai
Schauffele
If Driving accuracy and Greens in Regulation are your thing, the Ludvig Aberg is the one here.
Tournmanet history throws up Sungjae Im and Jason Day, both with excellent records.
Finally, if recent form is a sound indicator then Sepp Strakas name pops up.
As you can see, there are a ton of ways to attack this. I havent even mentioned names like Cantlay and Homa.
With all thins info, what to do. This event is not a Signature event, that comes nect week at Pebble Beach. Being a non Signature event, i will lean away from the bigger dogs with better fish to fry in the coming weeks. in saying that, If I were to launch one out each way it would be Xander Schauffele at $10. He cusomarily backdoored a top 5 again last week. He is finding it hard to win but the consistency of his play is relatively unmatched other than Scottie Too Hottie.
so these are my plays this week pre tournament
Collin Morikawa $13\
Sungjae Im $18
Ludvig Aberg $22
Keegan Bradley $31
Sepp Straka $51
Play these 4 for a $4.35 return
17 units here for a return of 73.8 units returned
3 units also on Xander Schauffele at 9.80 using Tabtouchs 10% profit and money back Top 5 (inc ties) to return 29.4 Units
20 Units out this week. Also, Min Woo Lee is playing and we have him all year at 3.50 (5 units)
No joy to report from the Farmers Insurance Open, with long shot European tour (now PGA tour) player Mathieau Pavon getting the win over a game Nicolai Hojgaard and Stephen Jaeger.
As you can see, it was a european dominated leaderboard, such are the fields now and the finishing 9 hole stretch didnt disappoint. It was anyones tournament till the lat putt dropped and was reminiscent of the chaotic European tour finishes we see week in and week out.
It took a birdie on the last for Pavon to win by one shot and secure his first PGA tour win in only 3 starts on this tour. Tne win gets him exemptions into all Signature Series events as well as the Majors. A real life changing week for the 31 year old Frenchman.
One for the blackbook is Nicolai Hojgaard, who didnt have his best stuff and still was there to win in the end.
My blokes all faired terribly, most disappointed with Sungjae Im and Morikawa who missed the cut. Xander did his normal "wet socks" routine where he just cruised in the background and ground out another top 10, with out threatening to win. He really isnt living up to the hype, expecially as favorite for the tournament.
And with that, we leave empty handed and onto Pebble Beach, a course rich in history and most people even outside of golf have heard of. Makes for a good week outside of the ProAm side of things, where im sure there will be clips of an significantly ageing, not funny Bill Murray.
It feels like the first real Signature Event is upon us with a stacked field of 80 to tackle the Monterey Penninsula for 2024. Normally, this is a poorly strengthed event due to clashes on the calender, but now that this is a Signature event, all the available big dogs are here.
Spyglass Hill is the tougher of the two courses and the rotation will see only the two courses in play this year instead of the three.
Also, we might not get a finished event.
The weather is going to play a factor and dont be suprised to see the tournament with a Monday or 54 hole finish. All reports are cold and wet. With this in mind, scoring will be tough on the generally short course, coupled with some of the smallest greens on the tour.
Statistically, driving distance isnt a factor here and levels the playing field somewhat. Most players will be playing from the same areas into greens, which pust a premium on approach play, greens in regulation and ofcourse putting.
Because of the course rotations, it makes it hard to parse the data into more meaningful field statistics. But there are some statistical standouts to me stemming from approach, putting, history and weather and then there is the all imporatnt non qauntifiable eye test.
Your favorites are the biggest of PGA tour dogs, Rory and Scheffler. They are posted at around 9-1 the field, which compared to the last few tournaments is generous. But not too generous.
Rory is coming off a greats start to the year with a second and a win in Dubai. Scheffler continues to struggle with putter in hand. An interesting take this week. When small greens and putting surfaces at at some of their hardest, does this bring the worse putters into it? Or does it make the bad putters worse? The former would see Scheffler destroy this field. Im not so sure.
Thats for you to decide. Im steering clear of the top 2 this week with my thoughts firmly revolved around a levelling of the playing field due to weather and second shot golf.
To find a balance of price and value, ive landed on two guys before the tournament. This is a no cut event and may have an early finish, so im banking these two get off to a flyer.
Jordan Spieth 5 units at $20.80. This is a weird price because of Tabtouches 10% bonus and money back top 10 this week. Im really keen on Spieth for a few reasons, mainly those reasons of his enigmatic play, his love for bad weather (mudder) and his course history here. He has been playing good golf in the early season events and now with a few rounds under his belt, coupled with the weather, I think he can acquit himslef well here.Driving distance doesnt come into it here so if he can hit a few fairways and use his enigmatic skill to hit small greens, I think he can at worst drop a top 10.
Adam Scott 2 units at $73.60. Another weird price due to a boost with PlayUp/Draftstars. This price is huge for someone with excellent form, excellent putting and great course experience. Last year we saw Justin Rose salute here with some consistent, stable play and Scott is from the same vintage. He is as low as $41 in other places so im happy to lob on "the other Scottie" here.
:Lastly, a bit of a novelty bet through Ladbrokes. Same tournament multi of Scheffler top 10, Speith top 20 and Scott top 20. 2 units here at $10.12.
This week 9 units out.
Current balance -122.8 units. Need to kick start a run here!!
Good luck and hopefully we get a full tournament or a leader when the weather siren blows!
Being the Golf thread, it would be remiss of me not to at least mention other tours and some suggested wagers (not counted of course) to keep interest across the global stage.
Over in the DP World Tour, Ive had 2.5 units on Yannik Paul at $15. Low key consistent golfer who is always therabouts. Finished well last week.
LIV golf cranks up this week displaying all their new signings. They set off on Friday at Mayacoba. Ive had 1 unit Bryson Dechambau at $16.40 for some interest. Playing a lot of YouTube golf so has been keeping up the skills. Rahm the favorite at $6.
Not a bad tournament this far from a purely viewing perspective. Scheffler is out in front at -11 in company with Detry and Aberg. Both Aberg and Scheffler had rounds of 65 and 64 to get them to the top. Detry steadied after a slow start to have a -2 round.
After round 1, I had a stab at Justin Thomas at $17 (2.5 units). He didn't disappoint with a round of -5 and sits 2 back. He is now at $10 and still worth a shot.
Spieth shot -3 and is a long way back. Scott shot -5 and is 6 back. With the predicted weather rolling in anything could happen. But my hopes firmly low with JT at the moment.
Well we got the 54 hole finish in the end with the course succumbing to the elements. It was Wyndham Clarke the victor by 1 shot over Aberg and a further shot back to Pavon. JT was 4 back in striking distance however the siren sounded and that was that.
I cashed out my JT bet seconds after the call off to get my money back. That was the only joy with Speith and Scott settling for 39th and 20th respectively. Spieth finished 3 shots out of top 20 to destroy my same tournament multi with Scheffler finishing top 10 and Scott finishing top 20. 2/3 as usual.
It has been a horrid start to the year. Similar last year so it can change pretty quick. But it's getting dire.
Onto Phoenix this week for Waste Management, one.of the favorite weeks of the year.
Early markets have Scheffler poised for a 3 peat at 6.50. Xander is $10 while JT is being kept very safe at $12. I can smell a JT bet with Tabtouchs money back special being on the cards.
Eat scratchings has tongues wagging in the golfing circles
Both Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland withdrawals from Phoenix.
No word on Xander. I wonder if the LIV train got him?
Hovland reportedly f@cked off with his game and has gone away for a week to work on things. He'll be back for Riviera and is an auto bet for me that week.
Interesting with Hovland. Had a wonderful coach that got his short game going and numbers on the trackman which gained him the tour championship last season. Got rid of that coach at the start of the year and things not the same.
Comments
One more week next week then a well.earned break till Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Need to reassess a few things going into 2024!
H-BOMBER likes this post.
It's modified format each day and teams of 2 (male and female players).
Not spending much time here. Have backed Lud the Stud (Aberg) with his partner Magdalene Sagstrom. They are second in the betting behind Toney Finau and Nelly Korda.
3 units Aberg/Sagstrom at 7.87 to collect 23.6 units.
Better viewing in the Alfred Dunhill in South Africa. I've had something on Marco Penge at $91. Not recorded as they have already started but he has opened with a respectable 3 under 69.
Good viewing and good luck.
Over in Europe, my man Penge was 1 back after 36 holes and then after 6 holes today was 3 ahead. He's given a few back since and is now 5 back from Oosthuizen, who hasn't been sighted for 5 years and all of a sudden shoots a course record. His LiV mate Schwatzel also on fire.
I feel the young man Penge has run his race unless something amazing happen in today's last 3 holes and tomorrow
In the US, Aberg and Sagstrom just fall short after carding a best of the day round of 60. They went down by 2 shots to Day/KO team. Unfortunately their even par on Saturday put load to their chances.
But at the end of the fall swing we sit -58.5 units.
Gilgamesh likes this post.
Voodoo, detonator likes this post.
We begin the year with the Sentry. That's it. No Tournament of Champions anymore, given this is now a signature event with 60 players with varying qualifications. Previously, this was a winners only invitational, but kow,.like with most things in the Tour, has been changed in the ever increased pressure of LIV golf.
Kapalua is generally a birdie fest, with montages of the whales and surfers in Hawaii. Wide fairways and no wind makes this a great start for the year to get players comfortable with their game.
For the second year in a row, there will be no defending champion present due to Rahms departure to LIV. This leaves things open at the top.
As.with the last few years I'll make a few predictions for the year.
I think that Scheffler and Hovland may have record breaking years and be battling out the majority of events this year. No genius here, but these two are head and shoulders above, especially Scheffler where the putter looks to have returned and he decimated the Hero WC field a few weeks ago.
Scheffler to win 5 times and a major.
Hovland will win a major this year.
For this tournament, a soft start to the year.
Scheffler headlines the field with Hovland second in the betting. A juicy $4 is available about either winning, which I'm happy to take. 10 units here
Using Tabtouchs money back and bonus 10% special on Scheffler. His price is boosted to 6.50 and money back if he loses by 5 or less shots. Seems a.good bet here and another 3 units here.
Lastly some novelties.
Scheffler/Hovland each way exact (1-2) finishing order, each combo at $67. 1 unit on each
Lastly, Scheffler to win AND have a hole in one, 0.5 units at $251.
Good luck and good viewing!
detonator likes this post.
Easy conditions made scoring on the back nine inevitable and they all pretty much took advantage.
The -30 barrier could be in trouble.
Hopefully Scheffler and Hovland are going toe to toe on the back nine on Sunday.
Both weren't able to score as well as the previous days and Hovlands tournament ended on hole 14 (easiest hole) where he took a triple bogey 7? He finished the day 1 under after being -4 for the day then dropping 4 shots in 2 holes. Can't do that here.
Scheffler not much better. He shot 2 under for the day but significantly parred his last 6 holes which are holes everyone was birdieing. He finished at -18.
He is 3 behind Chris Kirk and to be honest, he would have to pull out a 64 to win such is the low scoring. Yes it's possible but you can't afford to have one bad round here.
Hopefully he can finish within 5 for money back. Even better win.
It was a weekend clinic by Kirk to beat the field of stars and showed his calm temperament was the key to scoring low and keeping the pressure on. He shot a Sunday 65 which was just enough to hold off Theegala and Spieth down the stretch by 1 and 2 shots respectively, which proved that you need to keep going low at Kapalua and make no mistakes of you want to win.
Disappointingly it's New Ywar and old Scottie with his putter being the problem on the weekend again. He finished 4 back of the winner and easily dropped those 4 shots in the last nine holes. He shot a Sunday 66 (-7) which is normally excellent however the field average for the day was a 67 so in all he was only 1 better than the field. When you are 3 back at the start of the day this is not good enough.
He did do enough though to finish withing 5 shots, so money back on that wager.
Liked the look of Theegala this week and also Sungjae I'm who head to Wailai this week for the Sony Open.
Till then
Par 72 playing a touch over 7000 yards with 17 meters of elevation (last week was 140!).
If you tuned in last week to Kapalua and thought that was Hawaii swing golf, then you would be wrong. Last week was a hit and giggle compared to this layout and will separate the men from the boys.
This year has attracted a pretty good field of players, some that competed last week and most who are re joining the tour for the 2024 season either coming off holiday breaks or the Korn Ferry Tour.
Last week at Kapalua, the scores were low and the advantages that players would normally find off the tee etc were eliminated by the undulating course allowing all baals to collect in similar regions to provide a second shot golf course.
Here at Waialae, this is also a second shot course, BUT, only if you can keep in in the fairways, who are much narrower and more penal if missed.
Kapalua last week was undulating, in fact, one of the most on the tour. Here at Waialae, it is the 3rd flattest course on the tour. Any easier walk? I do not think so.
Statistically, this course is broken down in to a few metrics, all to do with the off the tee game. The overall strokes gained metric off the tee (OTT SG) may be may look benign at first glance, however, diving deeper reveals a whole lot more under the surface. Sub metrics of OTT strokes gained can be divided into two other categories of Missed Fairways Penalty and also Driver length advantage. Essentially these two sub metrics are explaining the advantages and disavantages of accuracy and length off the tee.
Here at Waialae, this course has one of the biggest Missed Faiway Penalties on tour. When you miss a fairway here, it costs you 0.15 strokes to the field. This may not sound like much, but if you hit 7 of 14 fairways (and all other metrics being equal) then you have given away over 1 stroke per round to the field. Over 4 days this is 4 shots and with the margins of error so small at this level, this becomes more important than ever.
The consequence of missing the fairway is the the 3 inch rough that lines the course. Again, 3 inches aint much (so i hear haha), however if the ball is sat down the player will have to compete with 2 inches of wispy grass around the ball...if you can find it.....
Briefly, the Driver Length Advantage also comes into play with thos accurate and long. Statistically, the longer a player is down the fairway, their strokes gained on that hole significatly INCREASES as their proximity decreases.
Does this mean anything. I dont know. But it forces us to not only look at players who are playing well, with good course history etc, but we are looking for the most accurate and long drivers of the ball in the field.
Crunching the numbers, one player stands out in the length category and thats the favorite, Ludvig Aberg. He leads the field in distance over a smaller sample size, but nonetheless, his length is an advantage. Similarly, he is very accurate at around 68% of fairways. So he is a good start, but as the favorite and $17, he might be worth a punt later in the week if you are so inclined. His week last week was 1 good round amongst 3 average rounds. Encouraging for his supporters, his best round was on a Sunday, giving some recency bias to his betting number and exposed recent form. Was he knocking the rust off or is it something else. I think Ill keep him in the back pocket for now as there are others that represent better pre tournamnet value.
The three I have landed on have a mix of length, accuracy and form to go on.
Firstly, Im looking at Open Championship winner Brian Harman. NOT a long hitter by any stretch, but absolutely pin point accurate off the tee. He will hit the majority of fairways and give himself the best opportunity to hit greens in regulation, which is important, as he has been filling it up with the putter and is notoriously good on the flate surface. He gained a ton of strokes on the green last week and also leads this field in total strokes gained. Finished with Scheffler at T5 last week. Good enough for me at $21.
Next in the betting is JT Poston. Last week it was an absolute stripe fest off the tee for him. Go have a look at his highlights from last Sunday on the pgatour.com app. Its all stripes. He hits it sneaky long and also had a great start to last week finishing on the heels of the leaders. Putting is excellent and this is a great spot for him coming off last week. He is $34.
Lastly, a bit of a punt on recency here. Im going for ald mate Harris English. Coming off a surgery year last year, he has shown glimpses of being back to his best late last year and last week he was tremendous in all categories, finishing in T14. When on song, he is deadly accurate and collected in his play, which seemingly has returned in full now. Im willing to have a crack this week. Can drive the ball long and straight and has the confidence back from his successful surgery last year. $41 is available.
Playing these three at the prices will get you back $9.85 back for every $1 invested.
Im having 10 units this week on this for a collect of 98.5 units back.
Update after last week
Current is at -71 units
This week -10 units
Overall is at -81 units (10 alive)
Best of luck!
detonator likes this post.
3.8 units for 49.4 return
.JT poston and Harman are at -3 and -4 respectively and while only 5 and 6 off the lead, it looks as though something dramatic will have to happen for them to get the W. In fairness, Harman has hit 0 putts this week, shaving cups from everywhere and they will not drop. Hopefully his luck changes on the weekend.
It looks like a tight weekend of golf in Hawaii and the watching times are more friendly with early to mid mornings viewing.
If you are betting now, Bradley and Kirk represent good value. They have non winners around them and I expect them to be fighting things out. Keegan is $3 while Kirk is $11. You could play these two for a profit at around $2.35 odds.
Good viewing and I'm hoping for a Kirk or Harman miracle.
Current balance at -84.8 units
Preview up later on.
But first some breaking news in the golf world.
Today at PGN (Perth Golf Network) Maylands Competition, I was fortunate enough to snag a hole in one on hole 16.
Par 3, playing 144m, into the wind. It was the best thinned 6 iron I've ever hit. Straight at the pin. Hit the up slope at the green and popped up. Rolling, rolling, rolling, it's straight at it and rests nicely on the flag stick for about 2 seconds then falls in.
\:D/
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This week we are back to a Signature series event at the American Express. Lots of the big dogs are playing which makes it harder and now we throw in a 3 course rotation just to completely melt the mind and the models.
As I saidt here are three in play this week, hosted by the Pete Dye Stadium Course (Formally known as PGA West or PGA West Stadium Course in most instances). Each golfer will play one round at the Stadium Course, one round at La Quinta Country Club, and one round at the Nicklaus Tournament Course – before the cut and will return to the Stadium Course for the final round.
Stadium Course: Par 72 | 7,187 Yards – 69.260 Scoring Avg Last Year
La Quinta Country Club: Par 72 | 7,060 Yards – 69.584
Nicklaus Tournament Course: Par 72 | 7,147 Yards – 68.724
Because the PGA Stadium course is the course that will be played twice, and more importantly, last, this is the course that metrics will be applied.
This is A. Easier and B. the only data I have acess to.
So looking at total weighted strokes gained and recenct form, Ive come up with the folowing plays
Same as two weeks ago, the safest play is the play Scheffler with the TAB money back special. That is, you get +10% on the price and money back if loses by less than 5 shots.
So like last fortnight, 3 units on here.
Next we come to the lineup, for 10 units.
Cantlay $9 - Best player in the filed behind Scheffler. Has good history here as well.
Sunjae Im $19 - Set the record for most birdies over 72 holes in the Sentry and has excellent course history at PGA Stadium. He'll suck me in this week as he showed form and at a course he likes
JT Poston $34 - Another one to suck me in with his recnt play. Round of the week last week and has been low key piling up top 10s over the last 5 months.
Finau $41 - Wasnt interested but he had one of the nest weighted strokes gained metrics over the last 5 years here and at the price is worth a stab
10 units here will gross back 45.97 units
Lastly, I was chatting to a fellow golf enthusiast about how Min Woo Lee was going to be an auto bet for me this year unitl he wins one. Well last night I found a market for Min Woo Lee to win 1+ events on any PGA tour sanctioned event (including majors) at $3.50.
5 units here for me to collect 17.5 units. Now im on all year and because he has his PGA Tour card he will front up many times on the tour, so now I dont have to think about it!!
So overall, have 18 units out this week.
The action starts in 2 hours.
Best of luck!
Amateur Nick Dunlap wins the AMEX at the staggering odds of around 500-1 and did it with a record breaking 60 on Saturday. The scoring was low all week and anything worse than 6 under was nowhere near good enough. The cit was set at 12 under par after 3 rounds and most were out of it come round 4.
The best hopes were Sam Burns and Justin Thomas to chase down the amateur but in the end it was a bridge too far. Burns actually should have won but finished with 2 double bogey water balls to eject from contention, leaving Dunlap to par the last to win by one shot from Christian Bezedenhoit.
Dunlap broke many records, 2 of which were youngest amateur since 1910 to win on the tour and also one of only 7 ever. The last was Phil in 1991.
He also is the only other player ever to win the US Junior and US amateur than ofcourse Tiger Woods.
He is in good company.
As mentioned, all my blokes were never in the hunt. Disappointing most was Scheffler, who after that Hero win has failed to dominate as expected. I feel these first swing events are still a time for players to work out their game and the courses they play are not easy, but are at a level that these golfers all even out at.
This week the tour heads to Farmers Insurance at Torrey Pines which is a real big boy course. There will be no 29 under winning score here I would think. Also, the tournament starts on Wednesday night here so a day earlier than normal.
Update -102.8 units (5 alive Min Woo)
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Courses - Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill
It feels like the first real Signature Event is upon us with a stacked field of 80 to tackle the Monterey Penninsula for 2024. Normally, this is a poorly strengthed event due to clashes on the calender, but now that this is a Signature event, all the available big dogs are here.
Spyglass Hill is the tougher of the two courses and the rotation will see only the two courses in play this year instead of the three.
Also, we might not get a finished event.
The weather is going to play a factor and dont be suprised to see the tournament with a Monday or 54 hole finish. All reports are cold and wet. With this in mind, scoring will be tough on the generally short course, coupled with some of the smallest greens on the tour.
Statistically, driving distance isnt a factor here and levels the playing field somewhat. Most players will be playing from the same areas into greens, which pust a premium on approach play, greens in regulation and ofcourse putting.
Because of the course rotations, it makes it hard to parse the data into more meaningful field statistics. But there are some statistical standouts to me stemming from approach, putting, history and weather and then there is the all imporatnt non qauntifiable eye test.
Your favorites are the biggest of PGA tour dogs, Rory and Scheffler. They are posted at around 9-1 the field, which compared to the last few tournaments is generous. But not too generous.
Rory is coming off a greats start to the year with a second and a win in Dubai. Scheffler continues to struggle with putter in hand. An interesting take this week. When small greens and putting surfaces at at some of their hardest, does this bring the worse putters into it? Or does it make the bad putters worse? The former would see Scheffler destroy this field. Im not so sure.
Thats for you to decide. Im steering clear of the top 2 this week with my thoughts firmly revolved around a levelling of the playing field due to weather and second shot golf.
To find a balance of price and value, ive landed on two guys before the tournament. This is a no cut event and may have an early finish, so im banking these two get off to a flyer.
Jordan Spieth 5 units at $20.80. This is a weird price because of Tabtouches 10% bonus and money back top 10 this week. Im really keen on Spieth for a few reasons, mainly those reasons of his enigmatic play, his love for bad weather (mudder) and his course history here. He has been playing good golf in the early season events and now with a few rounds under his belt, coupled with the weather, I think he can acquit himslef well here.Driving distance doesnt come into it here so if he can hit a few fairways and use his enigmatic skill to hit small greens, I think he can at worst drop a top 10.
Adam Scott 2 units at $73.60. Another weird price due to a boost with PlayUp/Draftstars. This price is huge for someone with excellent form, excellent putting and great course experience. Last year we saw Justin Rose salute here with some consistent, stable play and Scott is from the same vintage. He is as low as $41 in other places so im happy to lob on "the other Scottie" here.
:Lastly, a bit of a novelty bet through Ladbrokes. Same tournament multi of Scheffler top 10, Speith top 20 and Scott top 20. 2 units here at $10.12.
This week 9 units out.
Current balance -122.8 units. Need to kick start a run here!!
Good luck and hopefully we get a full tournament or a leader when the weather siren blows!
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After round 1, I had a stab at Justin Thomas at $17 (2.5 units). He didn't disappoint with a round of -5 and sits 2 back. He is now at $10 and still worth a shot.
Spieth shot -3 and is a long way back. Scott shot -5 and is 6 back. With the predicted weather rolling in anything could happen. But my hopes firmly low with JT at the moment.
I cashed out my JT bet seconds after the call off to get my money back. That was the only joy with Speith and Scott settling for 39th and 20th respectively. Spieth finished 3 shots out of top 20 to destroy my same tournament multi with Scheffler finishing top 10 and Scott finishing top 20. 2/3 as usual.
It has been a horrid start to the year. Similar last year so it can change pretty quick. But it's getting dire.
Onto Phoenix this week for Waste Management, one.of the favorite weeks of the year.
Early markets have Scheffler poised for a 3 peat at 6.50. Xander is $10 while JT is being kept very safe at $12. I can smell a JT bet with Tabtouchs money back special being on the cards.
Update -122.8 units
More soon
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Both Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland withdrawals from Phoenix.
No word on Xander. I wonder if the LIV train got him?
Hovland reportedly f@cked off with his game and has gone away for a week to work on things. He'll be back for Riviera and is an auto bet for me that week.
Interesting with Hovland. Had a wonderful coach that got his short game going and numbers on the trackman which gained him the tour championship last season. Got rid of that coach at the start of the year and things not the same.
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