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Belmont Preview, 12th Sep
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
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Belmont R1. The Mortgage Gallery Handicap Preview - Greg Hooper
The speed will come from 4, 5 & 6. With (6) KEENELANDER most liking leading and (5) AMUSEMENT PARK parking outside her. Leaving (4) PRIME KNOCKOUT to box seat, with (7) ESTRALLA getting a perfect run just behind them.
I’ve settled on (3) ELYSSA GRACE who is having her first run for Adam Durrant. She hasn’t won a race for close to two years however her recent trial was first class and I suspect she’ll be ready to fire fresh.
(5) AMUSEMENT PARK will sit right over the speed and is clearly the mare to run down. Both her wins have been when Paul Harvey has been aboard.
(7) ESTRALLA has drawn barrier 1 and I think she’ll get the perfect run in transit about fifth on fence. She’s ready to win.
(1) KIDDY CAT was luckless last start and is always a chance in these events.
3. ELYSSA GRACE - 5. AMUSEMENT PARK - 7. ESTRALLA
The speed will come from 4, 5 & 6. With (6) KEENELANDER most liking leading and (5) AMUSEMENT PARK parking outside her. Leaving (4) PRIME KNOCKOUT to box seat, with (7) ESTRALLA getting a perfect run just behind them.
I’ve settled on (3) ELYSSA GRACE who is having her first run for Adam Durrant. She hasn’t won a race for close to two years however her recent trial was first class and I suspect she’ll be ready to fire fresh.
(5) AMUSEMENT PARK will sit right over the speed and is clearly the mare to run down. Both her wins have been when Paul Harvey has been aboard.
(7) ESTRALLA has drawn barrier 1 and I think she’ll get the perfect run in transit about fifth on fence. She’s ready to win.
(1) KIDDY CAT was luckless last start and is always a chance in these events.
3. ELYSSA GRACE - 5. AMUSEMENT PARK - 7. ESTRALLA
Comments
This race looks devoid of speed and it could be a very tactically run affair. Horses than can race handy are 2, 4, 5 and 9. With the blinkers going back on (9) FLIRTY LADY she might take up the running.
I’m happy to be on the JT Warwick trained gelding, (4) PROUD PRINCE. He should be peaking at his third run back from a spell and he’ll certainly appreciate getting up to a suitable trip. His only win was first up last campaign when he led from start to finish over this distance. From barrier 2 I expect him to be ridden positively and I think he’ll be hard to run down.
(1) BEDAMIJO has ability and he should get a cuddled run from barrier 1. He didn’t get any luck last start and Shaun Mc Gruddy going back on is a big plus.
(1) IRISH SOVEREIGN is an honest type who can win. Only query is where he’ll get from his wide gate.
(2) TWO TECHNIQUES sat wide last start and battled on strongly. From a good draw he can sit handy and give a kick.
4. PROUD PRINCE - 5. THE CAVALIERI(NZ) - 1. IRISH SOVEREIGN
I think 2 leads comfortably with 11 & 12 racing handy.
I’m going for (2) ERNIE BOY to turn the tables on (1) MAKE YOUR MOVE. I thought his effort last week when he led and gave a strong kick home was full of merit as he raced very greenly throughout. I like that Peter Knuckey is getting back aboard and if he can get him to settle he should be hard to run down.
(1) MAKE YOUR MOVE gets the gun run again from barrier 4. He’ll be within striking distance at the top of the straight and will be hard to hold out.
(3) NOTHING PERSONAL resumes from a spell with the benefit of a solid barrier trial win. The only query is where he lobs from his wide draw.
(14) THUNDER EXPRESS is honest and will get the right run.
2. ERNIE BOY - 1. MAKE YOUR MOVE - 3. NOTHING PERSONAL
I think we will see the return of a very smart three-year-old filly in this race, namely (5) NIGHT TRAIN. She was well commissioned on debut back April of this year however after drawing a wide alley she was reefed to last, found stacks of traffic problems in the straight but rattled into second. It was a most impressive debut. She was tipped out for a spell and returned in a recent barrier trial in which she won in a brilliant fashion, when again coming from off the speed. From her wide gate she’ll be giving these a head start but if she is within striking distance at the top of the straight I thinks he’ll go “wooshka” and win.
(3) ILLUSION OF LIGHT was an impressive first up winner at Northam, sitting outside the leader and coming clear late. She should get the same run again and is the one to run down.
(1) UNPRETENTIOUS LASS should lead and will appreciate the drop back to 1200m.
(2) GRAND PALACE will get the services of Paul Harvey. She should be doing her best work late.
5. NIGHT TRAIN - 3. ILLUSION OF LIGHT - 1. UNPRETENTIOUS LASS
There looks to be good as you would expect in a 1000m dash. 11 leads, 10 sits second and 2, 5, 6 and 8 jostle for the spots just behind them.
I’m happy to be on (10) BUSTER’S EMPIRE who I think is a very promising horse. He terrific first up where he sat wide throughout and it took a nice horse to beat him and then he was taken to Northam for a kill and that it exactly what transpired. He gets the right run here trailing It’s A Merc, he should put pay to him on straightening and win.
The stable mate (8) RIOBRESA I think is the danger. He ran plenty of good races last campaign but just struggled to crack a win. His recent barrier trial win was very good.
Incredibly (5) BIZET prevailed last start after getting a perfect run. This is a much stronger race but he has claims each way claims again.
(9) LORD BALTHAZAAR always has excuses but he should be hitting the line and finishing in the minor prize again.
10. BUSTER'S EMPIRE - 8. RIOBRESA - 5. BIZET
The toughest race of the day. No definitive leader however 2, 3, 4, 5, 9 & 10 can sit handy.
I’m coming back to the last start winner (9) HELENA MISS who broke her maiden tag in emphatic fashion at Northam. She settled just behind the speed but when Glenn Smith for an effort she let rip with a brilliant turn of foot to put the race beyond doubt. This race is harder but if she repeats she can win again.
(4) TALK AND TEASE was solid first up over the 1000m. The step up in trip suits and she should get a perfect run from barrier 1.
(1) CELTIC ROCK will appreciate the drop in grade. She gets in very nicely with the 4kg claim for Aaron Mitchell.
(2) COUGAR TOWN is a non-winner but has each way claims.
9. HELENA MISS - 4. TALK AND TEASE - 1. CELTIC ROCK
There should be a bit of tempo in this race with 1, 3, 10 & 11 all likely to be going forward.
(7) GLOBAL FLIRT has not won a race since June 2010 however he resumes here for his new trainer, Justin Warwick and going by his recent trial he’ll take some beating. This gelding showed plenty of promise early, winning three of his first four starts however since then he has lost his way. As we know JTW is the king at getting them back on track and his recent trial effort was a beauty. I think he’ll be hard to beat.
The clear second pick for me is (4) FIRST FLIGHT. He’s a galloper who races best when sitting off a strong tempo, something he should get in this race. He was luckless first up when he never saw any daylight in the straight.
(14) JUST A NOBLE could be the forgotten horse. The drop back to midweek company suits and he’ll be rattling home late.
(13) ZERO TO SIXTY had no luck from an inside gate last week and can improve sharply.
7. GLOBAL FLIRT - 4. FIRST FLIGHT - 14. JUST A NOBLE
There looks to be decent speed with 2, 9, 12 & 15 all capable of leading.
I suspect (5) JAVELIN JACK will be the big spruik horse on the day being first up for new trainer, Simon Miller. However, going by its trial it should be very hard to beat. In his first preparation he ran a couple of good seconds early before losing his way. The blinkers go on for this assignment and I think he’ll be breaking his maiden tag.
(8) SCAMANDRIUS was very plain last week when he came up on the fence but didn’t fire a shot. He’s better than that and he might have just need the run after having a month between runs. He ca win at his best.
(4) HECACITY is a get back runner who can let rip late off a hot speed.
(3) COUNTESS PANETTI was scratched at the gates first up and then went back to the trials and performed well. Paul Harvey goes on and she has solid top four claims.
5. JAVELIN JACK - 8. SCAMANDRIUS - 4. HECACITY
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what ever i win will go onto sequalla system tomorrow!!
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This looks another 1000m dash which is Hot Goods' for the taking. She will fire across from barrier 6 and lead with ease and from there the race looks all but over. She is highly talented and Lucy didn't even ask her for much of an effort last start. The PerthTurfTalk horse Essayez oozes quality and if it's a nice day then I'll head out to see her strut her stuff. Best of luck lads. Troublesome type Rebel Queen returns to the track and should give a solid account.
2. HOT GOODS - 1. ESSAYEZ - 4. REBEL QUEEN
SUGGESTED BET - 2. HOT GOODS $100
Thinking we can get in and out quite early at Belmont on the weekend with Kennocha looking to make it 2 wins from 3 starts this preparation for team Durrant. Drawn barrier 9 she will probably end up in the breeze but the little Lonhro ball of muscle should be too good. Travellin' should find this field a fair bit easier to deal with than his last start and looks the main danger. Steve's Surprise got the Chocolates in a Northam maiden where he looked like the bet of the month. This is harder but I think he can measure up.
7. KENNOCHA - 4. TRAVELLIN' - 9. STEVE'S SURPRISE
SUGGESTED BET - 7. KENNOCHA $25 x $25
We hit the nail on the head last start with Madassa, he is a 1000m horse who may get 1200m just if he is given every favour in running. That would have taken a lot out of him last start and I doubt he will make it to the races. This doesn't map out well for him and I would expect him to be scratched. Woolibar who went down to Madassa by a short neck meets him 1.5kg better at the weights and I really think that this is his for the taking. Putting him on top as another very nice early investment. Agachar Cruz won an easier assignment than this but should go close again. Dueton is better than these but must lump 60.5.
5. WOOLIBAR - 4. AGACHAR CRUZ - 3. DUETON
SUGGESTED BET - 5. WOOLIBAR $50 x $50
Not a race I'm overly keen to be involved in. Im putting a knock on Cougar Express, think his form reads better than it actually is. Leaving him out. Verdello Blue is the class dropped and with W.Pike into the saddle that's the way I'll go. Think the Grey can amble to the top and control the tempo. Throwing up an absolute maddy in Moodride for second. Should be around 150-1 and I think worthy of a places only ticket should the rain come a pouring. Worth a gamble (in the rain) at about 20-1 to place. Black Magic Miss will cop a few whacks with the persuader from Steve Parnham in the Left Hand at about the 800 and she will grind away.
2. VERDELLO BLUE - 11. MOODRIDE - 5. BLACK MAGIC MISS
Not a race I'm keen to be involved in and I expect See Me Sizzle to be fairly short and obviously hard to beat. I'm putting Simon Miller's $260 000 Not a Single Doubt gelding Move on Notice on top. I think from barrier 3 Knuckey will take him to the top and from there you should get a genuine sight. From all 3 starts and his trials he looks a grinding type and I think 1400 is right up his alley. Bevel was knocked off by the highly promising Perfect Reflection, a replay you should definitely watch and a horse to keep an eye on. Esperanca should be in the double figures and can throw up a result in the first leg of the quaddie.
6. MOVE ON NOTICE - 3. BEVEL - 12. ESPERANCA
I think Paris of Troy can run and stun them over 1400m. Last start found a mile just a bit too far and dropping back to 1400m with Clint Johnson-Porter capable of releasing the handbreak and letting him roll I think he can steal this before the home corner Danny Miller style. Kaapander has burnt punters this preparation going down as favourite his past 2 and running 4 minors from his past 6. Looks well weighted. Special Delivery for the Peters-Pike-Durrant juganaught should improve rapidly.
1. PARIS OF TROY - 5. KAAPANDER - 10. SPECIAL DELIVERY
My team-mate from the Bureau of Meteorology assures me that Saturday will be very wet. For that reason I'm getting in early with my best bets and throwing up The Alleged later in the day. Born with a set of flippers I think team Warwick can steal this purely based on the state of the track by race 7. Would have preferred him in a mile event but never the less can run a cheeky race at odds here. Definitely worth throwing into your exotics and quaddies. Thunderclap Newman showed he is ready to rock and roll again, held up at the cruicial stages of the straight and then was low flying over the final 50. On the 54kg minimum looks mighty hard to beat. Zuccheros was bitterly disappointing last start but with Pikey into the saddle should bounce straight back.
9. THE ALLEGED - 10. THUNDERCLAP NEWMAN - 7. ZUCCHEROS
Wild Stratus may have to deal with a torn up track by race 8 but with the Blinkers Added to racing gear this really does look her race for the taking. I've been super impressed with both starts this preparation held up on both occasions and savaging the line. Third up drawn perfectly in barrier 4 in a moderate affair like this I think she should be winning. Miki Two Toes ran an eye catcher last start and should get a soft run for Jake Casey. Only 1 win from 10 on a soft track the obvious concern. Tonto is suited over further but this may feel like closer to a 1400 than a 1200 if the rain does come. Probably settling last from barrier 10 so will need to be good to win this.
6. WILD STRATUS - 3. MIKI TWO TOES - 9. TONTO
SUGGESTED BET - 6. WILD STRATUS $50 x $50