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NBA - Warriors v Raptors - The Big Best Of Seven
Sport
Ridersonthestorm33
10,809 posts
Seen some big upsets in sport in recent times but Toronto would take the cake if can overtake the Golden State Warriors. Hopefully won't be a 4-0 result and Toronto can pick up a win or two.
Game one this week in Toronto see's the Raptor's a surprising $1.85 favourite with $1.96 available on the Warrior's.
Market betting on these games by price assesor's are heavily skewed to home court advantage - I'd be looking at the $1.96 for the best team in the world!
Game total line is 215.5, like the game totals but my word they can be tricky - most ( not all ) bookmakers game totals on the semi finals went under the provisional line. ( Sometimes going over - occasionally thanks to overtime ).
Am tipping a Warriors win and game total to go over! You could do worse than go the opposite - Toronto and under!
Game one this week in Toronto see's the Raptor's a surprising $1.85 favourite with $1.96 available on the Warrior's.
Market betting on these games by price assesor's are heavily skewed to home court advantage - I'd be looking at the $1.96 for the best team in the world!
Game total line is 215.5, like the game totals but my word they can be tricky - most ( not all ) bookmakers game totals on the semi finals went under the provisional line. ( Sometimes going over - occasionally thanks to overtime ).
Am tipping a Warriors win and game total to go over! You could do worse than go the opposite - Toronto and under!
Comments
Have seen game totals go up and down before games by a point or 5 - sometimes the bookies were right in the first place. Have seen totals drop from 215.5 to 211.5 and total finishes at 227!
This game total is a tricky one. What have noticed so far in most of the finals defence has gone up a notch but until late in the piece bookies were still going high game total.
If this game was early final's six weeks ago bookmakers might have gone up 227.5.
And earlier on in the season it was the highest scoring NBA year for decades. Game totals were going through the roof. That was the time to get on the over.
Been terrific defence in these finals and now think price assesor's adjusting so 215.5 could be close. Amazing how many times there very close to the mark...sometimes last throw of the game can decide over or under..that's not bad.
Didn't even bother to check the score's got home switched it back on and see the Buck's coach looking forlorn at the press conference, thought gosh he looks sad as the winner, hello...hold on.....
Can see two value bet's with Golden State - either $1.96 to win game one - or fingers crossed they lose and then back them to come from 0-1 down to lift the trophy!
No bet game for me - but if a gambling man I'd be attacking the $2.12 - which means they'd probably lose. Another reasonable bet would be backing GSW with a head start on pick your own line - although for every point you take the odds are slashed drastically.
Game total support has been for the under - so all the money has been for Toronto and Under game total....hmmmm I'm still leaning GSW and Over.
Under 215 is home for the tea money after the first quarter \m/
SKIDS likes this post.
Warriors are @+5.5 at the line.
Got half right - went over.
Golden State - F.
Toronto have never stopped scraping through to get to this stage - could a fairytale beckon.
Stay tuned for game 2.
Two amazing things about the game.
1. Warriors went on a 18 - 0 run after half time.
2. In the final five and half minutes Warriors scored only three points and that was their final throw to seal the deal.
Boogie Cousins made a difference with his defence. Gasol was a bit down.
If Golden State win the series ( they will ) game 2 is the turning point.
When they were down and out just before half time, if somebody then said they'll only score three points in the final five and half minutes of the game - then how can they possibly win ?
Think that's why their so good.
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.
SKIDS likes this post.
Two game total's have gone over comfortably and one under by a fraction. What will game four bring result and game total wise ?
The line pro handicappers to record a tidy annual profit work on getting it right about 53% of the time - that's how difficult it is. Even around 47% of the time they get it wrong.
Line is 5.5 with that head start going to Toronto.
Game total has risen for game four to a healthy 217.5
I'm going Warriors to put their foot to the metal at -5.5 and game total under 217.5. No surprise to get both wrong.
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.
To win series -
Toronto $1.91
Golden State $1.91
At the completion of game four a decent swing and roundabout to occur. Especially IF Toronto pulls off another upset and goes up 3 - 1 they may come in as short as $1.20 with just one more win required from three games.
If Golden State can wrestle it back to 2 - 2 look for them to roll back in to about $1.40 to $1.50.
The best value might be backing the loser of game 4 to win the series but you'd wanna be brave!
Just require a flip flop in the lead at one of the breaks - or scores level - or overtime - any of them will do. Preferably need it to be as close at quarter time as possible - if scores level - you've already won.
Had some good wins on that bet type - lost 'em too.
Correction: Kevon Looney is IN. He’s playing with a ‘fracture near his collarbone’
@-)
IT'S KLAY'S DAY
GSW to win Klay 3+ 3pointers and Klay 18.5 points $3.20
$-)