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The Belmont Preview by TMP for 29/6/19 (still)
West Australian Racing
piker
404 posts
It's cold as a MIL's kiss over here (I know most MIL's are lovely; it's just a saying).
I'm keen as mustard this week; esp after last week's amazing photo finish result for Friar Fox; must be due for a few 2nds in tight photos!
R/1 This is a great start to a marvellous program. I would have to believe the ground will be soft.
I see two horses here. The first starter by Toronado, who has apparently sired a ? Derby winner in England. Lavarrod is trained by S.C. and has P.C. up; 2 big pluses of course in addition to 2 v impressive trials. i really like the trainer as he chases the right races for his horses and owners where ever that may be.
The A.D. trained Money Matters was really impressive in a mid week 2YO race. These 2YO's can go up or down v quickly; but despitr the disaterous run 2 weeks ago of a fancied A.D. horse I have to have both of these here.
R/2 The fave here is a v up and coming type and deserveres the shorts on offer. WP is on one of those Celtus horses that have real talent if they reach the racecourse. Both go in.
3/ I will chance Fred Dag and say it is between Showmanship and Smaizdat
The fave did not beat much last time, but was a v good sectional. The topweight beat better horses and ran a better sectional.
Personally I don't think the 7kg is enough, so I have already put all ups through Samizdat.
4/ Here is the race of the day as far as class goes.
Again there ar no words from the Gatting camp; but no words re GS either.
Being a MP (not member of parliament but a Mug Punter) I have to now go for Gatting. Last year at this time, MM kept beating Pounamu.
Mybe GS has not quite come up to her best this time around. I also found it interesting that the wise Bob Peters sais that he thought Belmont favoured leaders more so than Ascot! Any way I hope Gatting gains a big enough break in the straight to hold off GS.
R/5 First quad leg is even in my opinion. We are up to 1300m and I will guess at 2 horses with potential, Pearl Trade.
Rebel Yell has always promised alot, so I have to support him here at a v good price.
Pearl Trade gains PC and she has so often not quite settled in her races and does not quite explode into it as she can. Lets see about tomorrow.
R/6. LHMR always looked a strong well built type and last time was a stunning win. I am v v keen here despite what may be a bad barrier for him; but it is Belmont and he should find daylight at the right time. The other class runner is TVK who was disapointing last time;; but in blinding rain.
I'll go with LHMR.
R/7 I have a v funny feeling about Campaign. He is by Sebring who handle the wet. Even though mid week last time. it was a reasonably strong race and he surged late. His form in Sydney was reasonable; so I am hoping he has significantly improved since then. Otherwise this race looks like a raffle.
R/8 Well, are we back to the past with last race Harvey saluting again? Neurological is good enough and despite no convincing wet form and the funny long price , he is in.
If the track is not too wet, Stageman is a cert; WP up and a better draw.
Multiverse is an amazing big price; I guess because of his barrier. Double Bubble is long because i guess because of that v disappoiinting run last time.
In Love with Paris will have to go in; everything seemed to go wrong last time in!
The fave might well be taken on by all and sundry of the front runners here; so I'm a bt wary.
Suddenly Mervyn is 70's; just shows you; one day you are a rooster, the next day a feather duster.
Good Luck to all; let us hope the right horse whisperer catches our ear.
+1 -1
SLIPPERGOLDEN, frenc11 likes this post.
Comments
Below is my post 2 weeks ago based around why super short priced favourites fail in small fields.
Today my theory gets put to the test with Gatting vs Galaxy Star again.
Last start GS had all the factors in her favour except the price being too short ($1.30).
Today the factors may not be in GS `s favour except the price is more palatable.(1.65)
So on that basis I am suggesting GS all the way !!! Speed maps, form guides ?? Who needs them ?
Why does a horse with supposedly above average ability (according to every pundit in Australia everything else was running for second) fail in a small field ? I know why but nobody wants to say it.
Galaxy Star drops out then comes home strong. In a large field one would think that is a disadvantage because it has a lot more traffic in front of it.
Based on yesterday's run, both Gatting and GS got the runs they wanted so it was a fair fight with no excuses.
At their next start does Gatting start shorter than GS. NO.
Will GS beat Gatting in any size field ? Probably yes.
So I can only base my conclusion that very short odds on pops in small fields are susceptible because ......... B-)
detonator likes this post.
I’d love the $51 Settlers Creek in today’s West :-O
Double Digit
In Love with Paris (best)
H-BOMBER dislikes this post.
Uttsy likes this post.
Better still it was never in doubt.
H-BOMBER likes this post.
I think it does Diva.
Pikey said he should have ridden 5 yesterday.
This was the one that got away.
Uttsy likes this post.
I have my doubts too Diva. But what I cant understand with Pike, is why ride for luck when you are obviously on one of the best chances in the race. He does this time and time again.
I thought he could have eased out at the 600 in front of Fred dag and got on the back cryptic love.
Well that's what I had hoped when watching the race.