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The Other Belmont Preview for 6/7/19 by TMP (still)
West Australian Racing
piker
404 posts
Some classy races are on tomorrow at Belmont; but none are cancelled du to inadequate acceptances.
The weather and track conditions are the big variables. CRIS WA now says Heavy9 with 45mm last 24 hours; nearly 2 inches in the old.
If I can spot some European or NZ breeding, it's a good direction.
R/1 Laverodd was so disappointing at his first start that I jumped off. But then I saw his European dad and the jockey I keep barking about plus the trainer who tries so hard for his owners; so I am back on.
No Apology was awesome first up this time and the extra distance seems to suit greatly. but it is a funny price!
The fave's barrier trials were v v good and look at the barrier and the rider. He bolted in a barrier trial on Soft5 but he is v short.
R/2 Beat the Devil was looking like a big chance here for me but the heavy has put me off.
Battle Storm is courageous and strong; so I am on him again; never lost on him yet!
R/3 Dont Fuss has the best form and seems to handle the wet.
The only other one I can see is Danny George. He is v lightly raced and has won in the wet;
R/4 True Attraction is at 1.12.
I was on him last start when he seemed to hit a real flat spot around the turn and lost ground on the others.; then switched on and surged.
I tipped Play Hard a few weeks ago when he was scratched; then forgot about him when he ran a greaat race at v big odds. His dam is by Danehill and some of them did well in the wet. I hope he lobs along in front again; once more at v good odds.
R/5 Last time the rider of Ping me Another said the filly failed to handle the soft5 conditions; what about the heavy?
I kept looking for a filly to lob close to the lead; ended up with Heavenly Dust; perfect ride last time by Benny Paterson; great odds.
The Galah filly looked promising but I switched off her becos of all her tries; the fave should bolt in but so short.
R/6 I was not inspired by the big distance back up for Friar Fox despite the amazing win for me last time.
I can see good arguments for 3,4,5,10,11 and 13.
Noir de Rue looks due (good rhyme too).
R/7 Horses 2 and 9 seem to handle the wet with Spirit and Fire racing upfront and Route 88 coming from the back.
For some reason I keep looking at Ooraah; good sire whose progeny often handle the wet;under rated trainer in my opinion;$44 a place on tote but only $7 a place fixed!
R/8 If it is heavy, how do they beat Great Again with a vigorous rider on top?
Friar's Gift exploded in the wet at Ascot previously; but he is 1st emerg.
I wonder if Miracle Man can handle the heavy. He has raced v well fresh in the past and has at times suggested a touch of class.
Chix Pic is v lightly raced; so with the wily trainer can he handle the wet and the longer distance?
Well, in clossing, any suggestions about my guesses are very appreciated.
Don't forget the losing coach interviewed after the match who said 'We had a great team on paper. Unfortunately we played on grass.'
All the Best.
+1 -1
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Comments
Going to have one last crack at the distance race - he must be fit - he's been grinding home ok - see if Jarad Noske can get him into a drum - Beg To Differ.
See my 'ol fave mare back today at 40/1 - Flower Of Scotland. $2.50 each way!
It's been brought in to help pay for the championship races and to introduce the new generation of younger punter's to the sport of kings.
Goodness gracious me, surely they jest on both counts.
The new Trio bet ( any 3 in order ) has a takeout rate of 21% - they couldn't make it 20% or better still 15% - always on the lookout to squeeze that extra 1% - and they do!
Thank goodness WA Tab for the time being staying out of the trio - milking one pool to barely lift another off the ground.
Odds and Evens Quinella perhaps does have some merit ( just trying to find where ) - there's been some mixed reports on the takeout rate - it's always in the very fine print of these announcements.
Ernie Manning Days
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Harry Thomas and Nikitas
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Other highlight it's difficult to keep up but think Pikey has ridden 12 winners from last Saturday to today - three meetings 4-3-5.
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Liked the run of Cockatiel today - reckon one that will continue to get over ground. She settled well and ran the race right out - beaten by a classier one.
It would have to be the cup winner on that performance this far out. That was easy
Broome Cup think is end of the month or around that time. Or perhaps August ? Before Kalgoorlie round begins anyway.
Wonder what weight he gets for the Cup ?
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Good luck to him, might be eachway odds too in the tougher assignment.
Worked last night for me, haven't checked today though