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Mount Eden Sprint 16/10
Harness & Greyhounds
JayJay
7,664 posts
Chicago Bull draws 1, Shockwave draws 2.. I can here the presses warming up down at the West Australian.....or perhaps a novice for non city winners at at Barcoo may take precedence.. Nonetheless, a mouth watering clash for the 150 or so spectators this Friday night.
+1 -1
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Comments
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Wouldn’t be if you owned either of them
Yeah giving them a tough draw is totally uncalled for I mean Chicago Bull has only accumulated 30K shy of 2 million and a poultry 220K this season.
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He’s had his fair share of bad draws, all FFA races should be RBD and as I said bet if you owned him you wouldn’t be pushing for him to draw 9 every week
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Wouldn’t be if you owned either of them
Yeah giving them a tough draw is totally uncalled for I mean Chicago Bull has only accumulated 30K shy of 2 million and a poultry 220K this season.
He’s had his fair share of bad draws, all FFA races should be RBD and as I said bet if you owned him you wouldn’t be pushing for him to draw 9 every week
If all FFA races were random draw then he would quickly run out of opposition (why keep your horse going around when it cant win) and therefore races to run in. So yeah if i did own him I wouldn't mind if we had to give the inferior opposition a heads up every now and then in a feature as it would actually be to my benefit.
Not saying they should all be pref draws but nothing wrong with having the odd feature race as a pref draw as well, it would add to the spectacle and give some light at the tunnel for those that own a good horse not a great horse. After all this is his 4th 50K random draw race in a row.
What you're saying is the equivalent of saying all open class gallops races should be set weights, plenty of handy races that are well and truly enhanced by being handicaps.
I will follow this up with are any of us on here who follow the game going to bet on this race the way the field has fallen, the race is likely to be run and the odds likely to be available? I would argue strongly no.
You just hit the nail on the head... give the inferior opposition a heads up every now and then, he does when he draws bad it’s random doesn’t mean he always draws good. Why should he have to bust his ass every week from a guaranteed bad draw, there’s been a few pref draws last few months and they’re the weeks he stays home. To answer your question I’ll still be betting on the race and I doubt I’ll be a lone soldier there’s more options than just win betting
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I promised myself that I would not enter into this argument
but as usual I can’t help myself.
I agree with JayJay, all Group Ones should be RBD with one
exception. Create a point of difference between the Fremantle Cup and The
Pacing Cup by having one as PBD.
In this era of 90% mobile races we can group horses together
based on handicapping conditions but once the field is assembled the only way we can
handicap is by PBDs. The success of the PBDs is heavily reliant upon the people
writing the conditions.
Let’s have a look at the race in question and flip around 1
and 2 and 8 and 9. The Bet365 market is priced to 129% and I have used the same
percentage for the flip around market and have also added my market to 122%
which is much more realistic given the exposed form.
Bet365
129% COF
129% COF122%
CB $1.40 VP $101 $101
S $4 CD $15 $15
SB $151 $51 $51
OR $8.5 $11 $15
BP $51 $31 $41
AR $151 $201 $201
V $8.5 $6 $6
CD $61 S $3.4 $3.6
vp $126 CB $1.65 $1.7
Opinions will
differ on the markets and prices generally are much more difficult to assess
under a PBD system which is designed to create a more open race.
Purely from a
selfish point of view I have little personal interest in what system we use as
I no longer race horses and if I cannot find value in the win market I turn
to the place market based on my rather flaky speed maps. I bet exclusively on
WA harness meetings but do not bet on trotters.
My concern from
an industry point of view is if we are still losing ground on the gallops and
greyhounds we have little chance of protecting what we have and we may be consigned to racing for ribbons.
More owners
own average horses compared to those that own the real good ones.
The synonym “if
Patrickthepirahna should be attracted to theit ain’t broke don’t fix it seems to have morphed into “if it is not working
don’t try to rectify it”.
blood in the water.
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Good it means that there’s an economy if we couldn’t sell horses there would be no point buying them in, on the flip side there’s plenty coming in to the state I’ve exported 0 and imported 3 this season as have many others
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Tomorrow night lucky to be 500 probably with free entry.
Nowadays With online betting And no crowds you have to ask what value a horse like Chicago Bull adds.
Sad to say all he does is reduce turnover regardless of barrier draws.