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ASCOT 27/3/2021
West Australian Racing
thefalcon
19,949 posts
Comments
R2- LORD LONSDALE looks a horse who can go through the grades this campaign. Was a two time winner from three starts last prep and looked to appreciate the addition of blinkers when winning at his last start. His recent trial was strong in quick time without the race day blinkers and although 1200 is short of his best distance, he gets a chance to lead them which should offset that. Looks very well placed after Bennett’s claim and she knows the horse well.
R3- STORY BOOK was never a chance in the Gimcrack when last and wide on a day that suited those on the fence. Actually got to the line okay in nice enough sectionals to suggest she’ll improve here. She beat He’s Gold and Diamond Blue on debut which looks outstanding form for this. Finds herself in a much weaker field here and drops 2kg on the run after Bennett’s claim. On the backup she looks much better suited in this.
R4- WESTERN EMPIRE looks a genuine $1.10 chance in a very uninspiring edition of the Melvista Stakes. Has bolted in at 3/4 starts this prep with his only loss coming after over racing badly in the Challenge Stakes. 2200 shouldn’t be a problem provided he doesn’t over race which in a field with no speed from barrier one pretty much means he has to lead. From there he can Pike can have them go as slow as Western Empire allows and save his turn of foot for as long as possible.
R5- GRANRANDELL won’t know himself with 52.5kg. Has been going okay including a last start second to KIA ORA STAR who he meets again here and although being well beaten on that occasion gets a 5kg pull in the weights. Should lead without a great deal of pressure in this field from a low draw and although untried at 1800, has found the find kind of race to give him a good chance.
R6- TINSNIP has recaptured his best form and put in two good runs this campaign. Loomed the winner first up before peaking on his run when third in a fast run mile before getting the job done in another fast run race. Beat Bruce Almighty who has won since and run a close second and the first three in that race spaces fourth. Should get another nice run midfield with cover and if he can hold this form should be winning another race soon.
R7- Best Bet: AMASENUS arguably should be unbeaten this prep. Was nearly put through the fence first up before beating a strong class three line up. Last start was able to sit much handier and still show her strong turn of foot when comfortably winning a 60+. This the strongest race she’s contested but getting to 1200 looks in her favour. As does gate seven which she looks capable of using to sit midfield again and from there with the speed on she’ll be hard to hold out.
R8- PURE DEVOTION has been the run of race in both the lead ups to the Oaks. Had to weave through the field when a fast finishing third in the 1000 Guineas before picking up off the back of crawl in the Natasha and was a massive effort to get within 0.5L of Solaia. 2400 looks perfect and this looks her grand final which the stable are always great at having horses set for races. Pike on is the cherry on top and she looks a deserving favourite.
R9- RIVER BEAU got the job done in a fast run race last start. Didn’t win by a big margin but isn’t the kind of horse who does that and can tend to float when he hits the front. Barrier ten here means he can sit out the back with cover in what looks like being another fast run race. He broke 33 seconds for his last 600 first up and if he can reproduce something like that can match motors with MISS CONTEKI. Against a similar field to last start he should prove the testing material to the hype horse in Miss Conteki.
Race 5 win and mostly place - Beret.
Those three should have a good tussle for the runners up cheque.
The rank outsider and likely last place getter My Friend Paul am sure has the same name as a horse that came from over east or NZ to run in a Railway Stakes many moons ago, didn’t win it but ran quite well from memory and was highly fancied.
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R4- Kentucky blue
R7- point taken
R8-reliable star
R9- state attorney & kramden
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Unreliable
Uncanny Timing
Sockoff
Western Empire
Melarab
Downforce
Absolute
Pure Devotion
Miss Conteki
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The other one who is very good - takes a bit to convince me with the hoops - Clint Johnston - Porter another polished exhibition on winner Miss Marietta.
Just had a cursory look at Giddyup tips on that race Dipara - best roughie and Wild Fusion in top 4.
Don’t advocate any tipping service their worse than me, and do your own stuff, but their actually fairly close to the mark. Maybe it’s just when I look!
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Pure Devotion SP $1.85 keep your nerve and lay every odds on fave in Perth racing for 12 months and you’ll be a mile in front!