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2019 Perth Cup Day Preview news

2019 Perth Cup Day Preview

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Thu 3 January, 2019

Race 1 - Miss Dom Sheed

As per the norm with the two year old races I won’t speculate on a speed map with so many first starters, but this race does look to have Miss West Coast’s name all over it.

Narrowly went down on debut three months ago and has been tuned up for this with a sharp trial victory. In a two year old season which thus far hasn’t lived up to any great heights, she shapes as a serious early Karrakatta favourite. Her ability to sit and sprint belies her race experience.

Mia Dolce is a clear second elect with the appointment of Chris Parnham the catalyst. Trial win and two seconds behind Specialism were top efforts and should only improve with the meaningful jockey change.

I’ve decided I’m unimpressed with the name ‘Drinkwhatyoulike’ for a non William Pike ridden conveyance. So, I hope it loses.

At the time of writing, I only have access to the odds Sportsbet provide which aren’t overly accessible to many and may lack accuracy. You’d think anything over $2 for Miss West Coast represents reasonable shopping, but I am always wary of hopping in too heavily on the youngsters. A beer buying bet to kick off proceedings.

Selections

Miss West Coast
Mia Dolce
Drinkwhatyoulike
Crystal Springs

Suggested Bet: 40 wins Miss West Coast (5).

 

Race 2 - Pearce’s Paddock

Speed Map - A very similar look to when this lot last did battle a fortnight ago. Expecting Archant (barrier 8) to lead them up here with Sliced Bread (1) opting for a sit (if backing up from the win on Tuesday). That changes the race complexion instantly as Archant was given absolutely none with the roughie Sliced Bread taking it on. There is no real other speed amongst the rest of the field. Angelic Ruler (4) could settle a little closer to the speed from the good gate.

Race Overview - This won’t be an overly lengthy run down with only two horses that can play a part here who clashed a fortnight ago.

As I alluded in too in the speed map, Archant will get a soft lead here compared to the pressure it absorbed a fortnight ago. It was a brave effort to run second all things considered. On top of this, you have a weight swing with Angelic Ruler and the possibility of an upset increases. Tayla Stone would want to be careful not to be caught on the back of a few of the slow ones which will be between her and Archant.

In saying all this, the strength of Angelic Ruler’s victories mirror that of Market Ruler’s recent form in similar events where her victories have looked lengths (and weight) above her opposition and just keeps winning.

I’m going to speculate on Archant as luck often plays a part in races and bowling along in front, it shouldn’t need any. I’d want $4+ to play however or for the shorter players out there, you could just take the easy investment and double your money on the obvious quinella.

The four ‘As’ the run the quartet.

Selections

Archant
Angelic Ruler
Assetro
Action Figure

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 3 - Rev Up

Speed Map - Very interesting little speed map here. Mrs Brown's Boy (barrier 7), Rising Sea (2) and Let's Twist (9) are the three obvious pace makers in this event though none are super quick beginners - all require some mustering to find the top. From the gate I suspect Rising Sea can hold the top, with the other two working their way across. May even see Rising Sea take a hold and let Mrs Brown's Boy eventually (could use a bit of fuel) find the top with Let's Twist working to his outside. Nelson's Flight (5) and last start leader Wonorg (6) are capable front runners, but I think both camps will be looking to take a sit just off the speed here.

Reveille (1) jumped a lot better at her most recent outing and will look for a spot three back on the fence with Double Digit (4) likely to keep her company. Royal Statue (3) is not the sharpest of beginners, though from the alley Pike may look to use him early and hold a spot midfield. It is likely those three sharp sit and sprinters will be making their runs together with the best timed ride being crucial.

Race Overview - Not convinced that the Royal Statue form is as comprehensive as the 72+ rated races the likes of Reveille and Mrs Brown’s Boy are coming out of and for that reason I am comfortable in looking in that direction.

With the likely speed in this event and my knock on Royal Statue, Reveille becomes the obvious top pick here. Scratched seven days ago when I would presume Adam Durrant wanted to avoid a clash with Royal Command, this event looks a more than suitable option with Damian Lane on top. At first her most recent outing appears disappointing, when she appeared to have every chance to go past Double Digit (bless his little heart). Upon further viewing, it was clear that there was a combination of Double Digit shifting outwards and Reveille laying in at around the 150m mark. Despite it looking quite innocuous, she lost all momentum. Barrier one is not necessarily a positive for a mare who likes to wind up into races, but Damian Lane is the right man to get her motoring when he needs to.

Double Digit has had it’s win, while from Witness Court down in the race book, they lack the class of the four above them.

The current quote of $5.50 looks a nice each way price for a smart mare.

Selections

Reveille
Mrs Brown’s Boy
Royal Statue
Double Digit

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Reveille (3).

 

Race 4 - Second Stringers

Speed Map - The second string field of stayers for the day provide a very intriguing speed map. There is no Beaucount or Prue engaged here to roll them along, allowing the likes of Brother's Keeper (barrier 13), Mr Alby (10), Burger Time (14) the option to show some real aggression early and potentially lead this event. Burger Time is a pretty risky beginner and the blinkers are removed here, but his win in August 2017 when leading throughout over a staying journey was huge. The stable will remember. Watch Me Ney Ney (3) is capable of rolling forward, though from the good gate he is more likely to take a sit just off the speed. Bon Signore (6) settled off the speed at it's last two outings, though is more than capable of rolling forward, while Thisaway may look to take up the running after it's successful foray forward seven days ago. The step up in trip would be the only reasoning against adopting such tactics.

Juicing Carrots (4), Mosseratti (8), Sentimental Friend (2) and Mekong Den (1) will all look for sits just off the speed. Drivin' Me Wild (11) will look to replicate his mid race move when successful in a lower class event recently. This is a speed map which has a stack of variables and is best not to dissect too heavily, but I suspect it'll be run at a fairly willing tempo.

Race Overview - Quite an interesting event to line up the form, with Mr Alby clearly having the best ‘paper form’ after his fourth in the ATA Cup a week ago. At the start of this preparation you’d have been laughed off track for suggesting Mr. Alby would be an emergency for a Perth Cup and open a clear favourite for the second string staying race of the day. While I have been suitably impressed with the rise of the horse and credit has to go to Paula Wagg, I couldn’t consider hopping in at the current price of $2.80. We aren’t that close yet.

Sentimental Friend really picks himself here. Not suited underneath horses first up before being involved in speedless and luckless races second and third up. Should be nearing peak fitness now and excelled in the three year old feature staying events from 2018. If the natural progression is there as we see with so many of Bob Peters stayers, then he should be winning.

Watch Me Ney Ney would appreciate leading or breezing, but I don’t know if he gets that opportunity here. Will excel as a stayer and at $10+ could represent the value in this.

Brother’s Keeper, Juicing Carrots, Mosseratti and Burger Time are all live hopes in a tough leg for early quaddie players. Be brave, stand out Sentimental Friend.

He’s currently $4. With the array of chances in this event I was hoping for a slightly longer price which MAY be available on the day and that's the way I’d go - bet late.

Selections

Sentimental Friend
Watch Me Ney Ney
Mr Alby
Juicing Carrots

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Sentimental Friend (8).

 

Race 5 - Get Scorched

Speed Map - Gee Boss (barrier 1) will lead them up with Misty Metal (3) likely to work to his outside. Rebel King (2) is known for his early speed at times and may attempt to be ridden in the breeze, but I suspect Mitch Pateman will be content to take a sit on the back of two pretty smart pace markers under the 59kg's. Likely to end up on Gee Boss's back. This should leave the back of Misty Metal for The Celt (4) to occupy.

Ambiente (5) has a bit of a sticky draw to contend with. Would love one of the two spots likely to be occupied by Rebel King and The Celt, but may be forced to take a sit on the back of The Celt. Worryingly, if this decision is not made early enough by Lucy she could be stuck leading a three wide line.

Expecting Snow Lord (8) and In Love With Paris (7) to be ridden cold with noted backmarker Profit Street (6) to have the final crack. If either of Snow Lord or In Love With Paris do attempt a more aggressive look at the race early, it could present Ambiente with cover in the three wide line.

Race Overview - Really exciting version of the Summer Scorcher, with a few runners who have the potential to take that next step. I really want to tip Ambiente and I have been wrestling with my speed map issues. The form around Super Maxi, Floyd and Fabergino last campaign really stands out. His effort fresh with 61kg’s, despite it being in a far inferior grade, was extremely dominant. Liz Strempel has him flying.

I’ve compared The Celt to the ebola virus and more recently Trevor Hohns and despite this very odd relationship we share, I can see him being the value runner here. I’ve mapped him to sit on the back of Misty Metal (who I am more than happy taking on with the campaign she has had) and is the horse which will start over the odds in every race he contests. Faced Misty Metal three starts ago when giving her 2.5kg’s and doing all the work, but was too strong. Misty Metal was likely a little soft that day en route to the fillies and mares races she was targeting, but it was still impressive. He’s carried big weights since then and will really appreciate the 54.5 on his back here.

Gee Boss is drawn to get the soft run on the rail, but does still need to prove himself against these top horses. Was a little disappointing fresh for Fiona Bell and will appreciate the father/son combo teaming up here.

If they overcook it out in front, then the vigour and patience of William Pike could come to the fore late, while Snow Lord and In Love With Paris can’t possibly win from their alleys.

The Celt is currently $6, but I have no doubt he jumps closer, or even upwards of the $10 mark. Shop each way late.

Selections

The Celt
Ambiente
Gee Boss
Misty Metal

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places The Celt (4).

 

Race 6 - A Bridge Too Far?

Speed Map - Major class gap in this field. Expecting some of the lower class runners to make their way forward with Mouquet (8) the likely leader once she musters around the field. Seeking Alpha (9), Oriental Rose (7) and Awesome As (1) are horses which have done their best work when close to the speed.

Lucky Roar (5) COULD lead this if they choose to be aggressive and demand the rail, though having been nominated for this and a shorter event, I get the feeling they may think the 1800m is on her limits. If that is the case, she may look for a sit. Fontainebleau (4) should be afforded a similar run to her recent victory over a near identical field. Celebrity Dream (2) will settle in 5th or 6th and look for as economical run as possible at a distance which is clearly a query. Showcase (10), First Affair (11) and Sally's Realm (12) are quality finishers who have been racing without luck and from their draws, that bad luck is likely to continue.

Race Overview - The question to ask here is will Celebrity Dream get the 1800m? She is a really special horse having nearly beaten Dainty Tess first up over 1000m, before running a game fourth when never on the track, at her most recent outing over 1600m. She has never been tested beyond the mile and this stable is rather astute with knowing their chargers limits. From the good gate, Pike can cuddle her up, aware of her potential weakness to run out a strong 1800m and save her for one late run. From the gate, I am going to back her in - she is clearly the best horse in the race.

From a speed map point of view, Fontainebleau and Lucky Roar are the only other two chances. Fontainebleau does look the most suited stepping up to the 1800m and you’d expect her to be in the finish. First Affair has had no luck this campaign and Damian Lane is a positive change. Look for her to charge late, but the wide gate does make things very difficult.

Celebrity Dream has opened up at even money, which is a touch short with a question mark hanging over her head. I suspect that question will worry a few and you’ll be able to shop at $2.80+ closer to race time.

Selections

Celebrity Dream
Fontainebleau
First Affair
Lucky Roar

Suggested Bet: 60 wins Celebrity Dream (1).

 

Race 7 - Release The Shackles

Speed Map - Most of the speed has drawn out wide in this event with Key To Fame (barrier 13) to look to come across and lead with young Kate Witten on board. I suspect she may have some issues either finding the fence or the breeze and may be left sitting deep with Cognac (12) and Disruptive (6) wanting those two spots.

Shackleton (2) looks the 'drawn' horse here and is likely to park up on the back of Disruptive, who you'd expect should give a good kick on straightening, probably shaking off the two weaker speed horses to his outside. There should be room for Shackleton to extricate. Alpha Sky (5) is not a very sharp beginner but can use the gate to settle midfield alongside Star Glitter (7). Forceful (11) will be forced back from the gate while Double Jeopardy (10) is the floater in the speed map. Was heavily supported before being withdrawn at the barriers at his most recent outing and with support tends to come aggressive rides. It’ll be interesting to see what Lane decides to do.

Race Overview - Going to call Shackleton my best bet of the day. A horse rated on the minimum who looks like they are on the cusp of progressing at a reasonable rate is always hard to pass up. The way this race should be run with a reasonable top end speed and McGruddy being able to tuck in behind them from the low draw, should suit. Drew awkwardly at his most recent outing when sprinting alongside Alpha Sky to the line, which showed great versatility. Has good barrier manners when drawn well, so can utilise those and have a head start on Alpha Sky - that should be enough to turn the tables on that galloper.

A big watch on Double Jeopardy who was backed off the map when withdrawn at the gates a fortnight ago. Drew barrier one that day and did have a few issues come from that event, so if the same money comes from barrier 10 is an unknown. The stable can’t train a loser at the moment.

$7 is the current quote on offer for Shackleton. I cannot think of a more perfect time to use the old adage ‘each way all day’.

Selections

Shackleton
Alpha Sky
Double Jeopardy
Star Glitter

Suggested Bet: 50 wins and 50 places Shackleton (13).

 

Race 8 - Lights, Camera…..

Speed Map - While there are a few pace horses engaged in this years Perth Cup, it does lack the top end speed we are used to seeing in this event. I miss Kirov Boy.

The Big Show (barrier 18) is choiceless here and will look to cross the field and find the top. Only Cappo D’Oro (9) is likely to challenge for the rail,, but I would love to see this son of Medaglia D’Oro take a sit. I think he has a nice turn of foot and can sustain a lengthy sprint. In saying that, if they do decide to take up the running I’d imagine they won’t be giving those behind him any cheap sectionals as he really is a true stayer (this is when I usually mention he should have won both a Pinjarra and Bunbury Cup). Khartoum (6) is likely to look for a spot in the first few in running having been over 2500m at his last two, while I am expecting Like A Butterfly (14) and Prize Catch (10) to roll forward and attempt to find a spot on speed.

Action (4) and Mississippi Delta (7) are both showing far improved barrier manners and both should find themselves in the first half of the field from the favourable draws. Elegant Blast (5) will aim to settle midfield if her up and down barrier manners are on song, while Perfect Jewel (11) will be simply looking for cover in the field after being forced into the role of pacemaker in the Ted. Gatting (15) will be the interesting watch over the first few hundred metres, with Damian Lane wanting to find the balance of not getting too far off Action, but also not looking for a spot and getting caught deep with the 59kg’s. He needs to put the big weight to sleep for as long as possible.

Race Overview - A week ago I’d all but declared Gatting for this race after deciding the form from the Railway/Kingston/Ted was far superior to the Towton/ATA form lines; a theory I stick by. Then barrier draw and bar shoe has happened since and it’s somewhat understandably seen me do a full 360. It has been proven in recent times, that carrying weight in the Perth Cup is not an impossibility. Pounamu was a moral beaten with 59 last year and Delicacy won it with 59. Gatting is actually well weighted in this event with not one runner on the 53kg’s being a 96 rater in a 96+ event. This was my basic logic, before the bar shoe went on and his run of good barriers came to an abrupt end. No matter how good the hoop on top is, they are two massive negatives to contend with. The market has reacted accordingly with $4.50 blowing out to as much as $7 with some corporates. With the list of ‘con’s’ it would not be a surprise to see this blow even further.

Action is the ‘X factor’. He’s been absolutely crying out for a hotly run staying event and while this doesn’t have a Kirov Boy or a Cantonese involved, they should still roll along at a solid clip. I still believe that Gatting is comfortably the best horse and possibly even best stayer in this event, but with all the factors in play, I can’t go past Action. Being decked out in the cerise and white is a winning recipe on it’s own.

Mississippi Delta is a good young stayer who I under rated at her most recent outing. Is capable of settling slightly closer to the speed than Action and it’d be absolutely no surprise to see the second string cerise and white runner salute. Cappo D’Oro is the third winning hope coming through that same form line. Sat in the breeze in a moderately run event a week ago when he was an absolute sitting duck for Mississippi Delta and Action. Look for him to make this more of a staying event, either out in front or with a move from the 800m mark.

Perfect Jewel is the only other winning hope and I’ve been quite surprised she’s been relegated to the third stringer. She was huge in the Railway (Action’s run was not even comparable), was plain in the Kingston, before clearing out alongside Gatting and Galaxy Star in the Ted when she was forced into the unfamiliar role of pacemaker. I have doubts if she will stay, but her form line and drop to 53kg’s make her an extremely good pick up ride for Pat Carbery. If that Ted Van Heemst and Kingston Town formline is as superior as it well may be, she could be the one.

The current quote of $2.70 (which is only getting thinner) is a bit hard to jump at, so I am hoping a few have followed my constant probing to take the all in price over the previous month from the $26 downwards.

Selections

Action
Gatting
Mississippi Delta
Perfect Jewel
Cappo D’Oro

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Action (3).

 

Race 9 - Jimmy’s Jet

Speed Map - Carocapo (barrier 10) should be able to find the top in a full field of restricted sprinters. There isn’t a huge amount of speed outside of him. Fine Scent (14) appears the most likely come across and race on his outside with Beat The Devil (8), Lord Ludlow (2) and even Sharkmouth (7) all likely to roll forward and race prominently. None are out and out speedsters likely to be quick enough to challenge Carocapo for the front early. King Cool (19) is a quick animal (for about 400m) and will likely lead up the three wide line, which won't be getting the cart into the race they’d be hoping for.

Bon Voyage (5), Princess Zelda (9) and Klondike Kenny (13) will settle midfield or a touch worse and look the standout options to run the quickest last 600m.

Race Overview - All eyes will be on Carocapo in the last after 721 days off the race track and two very hot trials. Race conditions are incomparable to trials and coming off such a lengthy stint on the sidelines and the fact this is over 1200m rather than the 1000m his trials have been over, I am content in taking him on. Not quite a knock, just me not interested in the 3 bucks about a horse first up for 2 years. Has a bit of Driftstar at $1.20 about it. Good luck to the patient connections.

Unfortunately the winner does not really stand out after removing Carocapo from calculations. The Simon Miller trained pair of Beat The Devil and Fine Scent are both in good form and both will attempt to race on speed. As far as sound each way investments go, you could do a lot worse than either of those.

Bon Voyage does look well suited up the 1200m of this event and I’ll follow the majority of Australia by tipping Pike in the last. Recent efforts over 1000 and 1100m behind Alpha Sky and Ambiente are far superior form line to this. From the slightly better draw has the ability to settle closer to them and tends to run the quickest last 200m of each race he contests. Isn’t Bob’s best, but there is enough in his favour here.

A near double figure quote for Pike in the last. Sign me up.

Selections

Bon Voyage
Beat The Devil
Princess Zelda
Klondike Kenny

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places Bon Voyage (11).

 

42 Comments | 4 months ago

Recent Comments

User DamienWyer

DamienWyer 05 Jan | Posts: 6471

with a name translated to "dear godfather" I think not, damo…. ah well it's all in fun, you know I don't name them

User thefalcon

thefalcon 05 Jan | Posts: 15601

with a name translated to "dear godfather" I think not, damo….

User DamienWyer

DamienWyer 05 Jan | Posts: 6471

Yep, I still think he will be my second purchase to win one

User Nevershowsurprise

Nevershowsurprise 05 Jan | Posts: 658

There was some talk earlier this week that Perth Racing had pre sold a lot of tickets and the crowd could in fact get to 12,000. https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/perth/thousands-flock-to-ascot-for-classy-perth-cup-ng-b881065830z10,000 is the reported numbe...

User DamienWyer

DamienWyer 05 Jan | Posts: 6471

There was some talk earlier this week that Perth Racing had pre sold a lot of tickets and the crowd could in fact get to 12,000. https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/perth/thousands-flock-to-ascot-for-classy-perth-cup-ng-b881065830z10,000 is the reported numbe...

User BlacksAFake

BlacksAFake 05 Jan | Posts: 2145

He has quite a few I’ve noticed

User Jell

Jell 05 Jan | Posts: 860

Pike rides Delta,wins by panels,other bloke is a Spud ???? Talking through your kick their a bit I’d say. I’d hardly say Chris Parnham is a spud, every rider has bad races.

User DamienWyer

DamienWyer 05 Jan | Posts: 6471

Been waiting for this race for 2 years. Let's hope Carocapo can run out of his skin

User BlacksAFake

BlacksAFake 05 Jan | Posts: 2145

Pike rides Delta,wins by panels,other bloke is a Spud ????

User SKIDS

SKIDS 05 Jan | Posts: 692

That was lovely $-)