Ascot 18th Feb - Winners & Losers

Scott Embry | Metropolitan Racing | Thu 16 February, 2017

Race 1

Why They Win: True Dragon

Trialled very strongly going into a well supported debut run at Pinjarra before setting a sizzling tempo over 1200m. Second career start bled from both nostrils. With W.Pike in the saddle and the benefit of a soft trail he can win.

Why They Lose: Magniflying

Was all the rage on debut before paddling to run a distant last. Hasn't been seen at the races for 15 months and while the recent trial as sound, the barrier hurts.

Race 2 

Why They Win: Undisclosed

Thumping first-up run down the Pinjarra straight running away to a near 6 length victory. Went under last start as an even money elect but had a substantial list of excuses. Forgive and Forget, she's the one to beat.

Why They Lose: Vital Asset

Found genuine Saturday 3 year old company a bit too sharp on debut and then was sent to Bunbury for an easy kill. Held off Chin Strap but looks more a 1200m type than a 1000m sprinter. Jarrad Noske electing to ride Belter evidences this opinion.

Race 3 

Why They Win: Galaxy Star

No shock and awe here with Galaxy Star likely to open up a popular short priced elect. Looking to extend his undefeated streak to 3 from 3 from a gun draw with Pike back in the saddle. Short and sweet, looks a promising type.

Why They Lose: Forseen

Ran a surprisingly good race for a horse most have pegged as a provincial type who specialises in dominating Northam races from the front. Expecting it to be a flash in the pan.

Race 4 

Why They Win: Speeding Comet

3 year old taking on the older gallopers. Looked reluctant to take a gap hard up against the outside fence at Pinjarra last weekend and finished a fairly disappointing forth behind run away winner Seeker. Drops to the minimum and is drawn perfectly in behind a hot top end speed.

Why They Lose: Seeker

Has burst onto the scene as arguably the best 'straight' horse in WA after almost breaking Werd's track record last weekend at Pinjarra. Has won two in a row down the straight five after racing handier to the speed. Has to contend with an awkward gate and the tight Ascot corner here.

Race 5 

Why They Win: Sonnen

Tramped three deep throughout on top of a frenetic speed. Looks primed for an Albany and Esperance cup campaign and this race on his way there is extremely winnable. Drops down to a postage stamp weight and can grind away on speed.

Why They Lose: Joyous Affair

Looks to be a nice enough 3 year old filly who won at a mile at her second career start, however, that Albany form race is a lot weaker than a Saturday metro race. Expect her to win races, but provincially.

Race 6 

Why They Win: Red Ora

Was beaten a nose in this race last year at $1.75 carrying 59kg. Gets in with only 54.5kg this year after a long run of outs. First-up run in the Mungrup Stud sprint was encouraging enough to suggest that he is almost back to his best.

Why They Lose: Coming Back

Knocked off Scales of Justice first up last preparation in a 72+ at Bunbury. This is a quality contest and he is yet to fully prove himself at 78+ grade let alone Listed company. Will need to run a career best race to win.

Race 7 

Why They Win: Precious Memories

Is proven having run Listed placings to the likes of Lusaha and Caipirinha. 1500m is right up her alley and from the gun barrier gets her chance to knock off the cerise and white juggernaut lead by Regal Moon and Glimmer Girl.

Why They Lose: Amaliemoo

Has won 3 on the bounce but in seriously weaker company. There are quality gallopers like Wrinkly who have come up at 50-1 and contested far stronger races.

Race 8 

Why They Win: Baraki Beats

Yet again comes up at a juicy eachway quote for an in-form leader who is chasing 3 straight wins. With Boy Hill in the saddle you can be sure he will get out of the gates and if he gets another mid-race breather he will go close.

Why They Lose: Material Man 

Is a high class galloper still on the rise, however, will always be vulnerable first-up at 1400m especially against a line up of race fit horses. Sure to win a lot of races this preparation but looks to be up against it here.
 

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