Ascot 21st January - Winners & Losers

Perth Turf Talk | Metropolitan Racing | Thu 19 January, 2017

Race 1

Why They Win

Driftwood Girl - Very well commisssioned on debut and will be improved by the outing. Should get a soft run just behind the speed for Brad Parnham. If you can get more than $5 thats probably good shopping in a tough opener with a lot of unknowns.

Why They Lose

Massagi - Laying 2 year old favourites is very popular amongst punters and bookmakers alike. Unfortunately Darren McAuliffe has had two odds on pops go down already this juvenile season in Five Degrees and Ibiza.

 

Race 2

Why They Win

Blue Houdini - Pike takes over from stable apprentice Mollie Clark after a slashing first-up effort behind the talented but injury prone Dash Dot Dash at Pinjarra. Looks like it will be around $3 and that may not last.

Why They Lose

Miss Singapore - First up without a trial for new trainer Lindsay Smith whose horses typically fire second-up. Couldnt crack it in weak Kalgoorlie maidens and will likely find them a bit sharp over 1200m.

 

Race 3

Why They Win

Fast As The Wind - Exceptional debut run behind General Husson when jumping from barrier 13 and settling rearwards with the rail at 15m. Thumped an average lot at Bunbury and looks poised to figure in 3 year old features.

Why They Lose

Veuve De Vega - Has put in a few decent runs this time in but looks a class below the main two fancies in Fast as the Wind and General Husson. A nice type but out classed and under the odds.

 

Race 4

Why They Win

Settlers Creek - Is as consistent as they come and was enormous when caught wide throughout from a nightmare alley at Pinjarra. This is easier and his form around Star Exhibit and Pounamu definitely makes him the one to beat.

Why They Lose

Point - Not a big fan of laying Pike/Peters/Williams because their strike rate shadows rival combinations, however, Point is probably a little under the odds. There shouldnt be such a disparity between Point and Baraki Beats in the market so I'll lay him small.

 

Race 5

Why They Win

Chinetti - Ascot 1000m short course specialist who runs his best races fresh. Looks as though he can cross from the wide alley from a speed map perspective and that makes him awefully hard to beat.

Why They Lose

Cuanzo - Broke a very long run of outs last start winning over 1100m. I do not see the drop back in distance being in his favour and this is arguably a tougher assignment. Has come up pretty short and is the one I'll be taking a stance against.

 

Race 6

Why They Win

Presentatie - Needed a set of binoculars to see the leaders first up before smashing the clock over the final 600m to run home in a staggering 33.65 seconds. If she jumps from the gun draw she goes very close.

Why They Lose

Rotana Beach - Her recent form is excellent with an impressive win over talented stable mate Faerie Whisper before running second to Stormy Grace. Scratched from a winnable race on Wednesday to be saved for this but will need to produce a career best run to win.

 

Race 7

Why They Win

Macavity - There are 5 or 6 horses you could easily back in this evenly graded 1800m. Not a betting race from my personal perspective but from a preview point of view I will go with the consistent on-pace type.

Why They Lose

Hay Magic - Was my on top selection at Pinjarra when winning over 2200m but she is a tricky horse to ride, has a fair few little quirks and is the one I would lay if I was forced to pick one.

 

Race 8

Why They Win

Hey Listen - Arguably a good thing beaten in the Albany mares feature last start and from a gun draw looks poised to recapture her 3 year old form. If she could re-produce a run similar to that of her effort behind Gloryland two starts ago then the $8 on offer is juicy overs.

Why They Lose

Headlander Boy - Will be doing it tough throughout from barrier 10. Is an on pace type and there is quite a deal of speed drawn underneath him. Most likely works forwards hard or sits three deep throughout which is why the $6 on offer is massive unders.

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