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Ascot 25th Feb - Winners & Losers news

Ascot 25th Feb - Winners & Losers

Scott Embry | Metropolitan Racing | Thu 23 February, 2017

Race 1

Why They Win – Eleven Seconds

Second attempt at 2200m should see him improved enough to give this a real shake. Was forced to tow the field up to pace-maker and serial pest Kirov Boy and by the time he reached the front the gauge read empty. Off a soft run behind likely leader I Done It he can prove too strong.

Why They Lose – Toppa Dawozza

Has only won 2 races from 44 and while he is a nice genuine type of galloper he lacks the killer blow necessary to win Saturday races. Is only a 65 rater so could easily contest a lot easier assignments than this and looks destined to run another encouraging minor placing without troubling the photographers in the winners’ enclosure.

Race 2

Why They Win – You Am I

Green, raw type still very new to racing who was sent back to trials by astute South West trainer Michael Lane for a couple of educational efforts over the short course. His most recent jump out over 600m was a grand effort knocking off Fine Scent, an unraced $210 000 All Too Hard filly who figures prominently in Karrakatta Markets. Looks a very good bet at $3.50.

Why They Lose – Riasc

Tipped by a number of reputable form analysts both on debut and first-up in the 2 year old Magic Millions race. While he was held up at crucial stages and forced into the wrong part of the water soaked Pinjarra track the effort was still only fair. Drawn awkwardly in barrier 10 he will likely concede a start to You Am I and spend the entire race looking at that galloper’s heels.

Race 3

Why They Win – Presentatie

Not an overly strong Bob Peters representative, yet to win in Western Australia and has a habit of missing the kick. From the wide draw Smith should settle her down last and she has, without doubt, the best turn of foot in this race. Comes from stronger form lines than the majority of this field and gets her best chance yet to notch a maiden WA victory coming off the back of a hot top end tempo.

Why They Lose – Universal Moon

Really lost her way over the past 18 months after building up a pretty handy career strike-rate. Has turned it around of late since David Harrison changed her training schedule, putting her over jumps, keeping her to 1000m and leading. She is drawn awkwardly, steps up to 1100m and loses the services of French hoop Mattieu Autier who has been able to successfully get her out of the gates recently.

Race 4

Why They Win – Just Act Natural

Deserves favoritism on the back of his all the way win in the Bunbury Sizzle defeating Miss Sondrio, Real Icon and subsequent winner Another Vision. Last start was well commissioned, drifted back in running over 1000m and never looked a threat. Back up to 1100m and drawn a gate to dominate the race on speed he looks the one to beat.

Why They Lose – Patrimonio

Has won all 3 of his career races first-up fresh. His last start effort behind Danefin was only average, he enjoyed the run of the race from barrier 1, had his chance to get out and make an impact on the race and failed to finish it off. This is arguably a step up in class and he looks under the odds.

Race 5

Why They Win – Gatting

On weights, ratings, sectional times and every measure under the sun he looks without doubt the best bet on the card. $3.40 was chewed up nationwide within minutes of markets opening and it would be no surprise to see him close closer to the $2.50 mark. His form around Precious Memories and then the older horses in Eleven Seconds and most recently Man Booker make him very, very hard to beat. He will be the shortest gelding in the Derby markets behind fillies Ellicazoom, Royal Star and Awaken and looks poised to notch his first Listed Victory.

Why They Lose – Sky Atlas

Ran a pretty handy mid week mile behind Fremond last start after grinding away first-up at 1400m behind Awesome As. That form is all questionable and without W.Pike in the saddle looks as though he is a step below the genuine winning chances.

Race 6

Why They Win – Spanged Impact

Probably has the ‘best’ form in a very evenly graded 3 year old 1200m. Her form beaten only 1 length in 72+ grade by Bombs Away and then less than a length by Salorsci and Precious Memories looks to be on paper the better form-lines in this race. Should enjoy a soft run from barrier 1 and make her presence felt.

Why They Lose – Bounce Down

Taking nothing away from Bounce Down who has won two on the Bounce and is piloted by one of the most in-form hoops Chris Parnham, however, has come up remarkably short at only $4. The win at Bunbury was in moderate time and then was handed the race on a platter in midweek grade on a ridiculously leader bias track with the rail at 15m. This is harder and he is under the odds.

Race 7

Why They Win – Pounamu

Anyone doing paper form will look at the weights from the last start victory of Pounamu when he defeated Tonto, Rosmartini, Already Famous, Falcon Crest and Temporise and think ‘well he just wins again’ and that’s probably how this race will pan out. My biggest concern is the fact he seems to run his best races fresh and potentially only 14 days between runs is not enough. That is clutching at straws because in his rich vein of form and down at a luxurious 55kg this race looks his for the taking.

Why They Lose – Already Famous

Ran his typical eye-catching first-up fresh sprint effort over 1600m against Pounamu when returning from a 2 month let up. He normally grinds away second-up from that sort of spacing so willing to risk him.

Race 8

Why They Win – Shady Gray

Excited to see the blinkers added to race gear for Shady Gray. 3 weeks between runs, 1500m back to 1100m, drawn an outside gate which dictates he will be ridden back in the field and blinkers added to race gear. At the $6 eachway Shady Gray can definitely win.

Why They Lose – Dezzies Dream

Has won 4 of her 5 career races first-up from a spell and without the services of William Pike looks to be the runner in the market which we can risk. I’ll be playing It’s It, Red Paddy and Shady Gray in the final leg of the quaddie.  

30 Comments | 2 years ago

Recent Comments

User hash

hash 28 Feb | Posts: 6245

Another example how bad it is having William Hill manage a WA TAB book.  what's wrong with William Hill? they're one of the first to release their prices for the saturday racing

User TheDiva

TheDiva 28 Feb | Posts: 10361

Did Kate hit the panic button a bit to soon on Just Act Natural. World was about to open up in front of her. That bump did the horse no favors.  I told you the key was "blinkers off" and they didnt push up and try and lead with which in my opinion...

User hash

hash 27 Feb | Posts: 6245

There shouldnt be any issue with limits (for a normal sized online punter). Know one punter that successfully placed 4000 on Achernar Star at $8 so the limits are quite large.  does it not also depend on the horses chances given to the people responsib...

User Jell

Jell 27 Feb | Posts: 908

Went to put 20x80 on Mate's Reward on Saturday and could only get on for $14 the place. Absolute joke, had to get the TAB lady to ring up for me to get it on.

User Amtheone

Amtheone 27 Feb | Posts: 37

3pm Saturday should be normal business hours.If the limit has been reached then why hasn't the horse firmed so punters can at least get a bet on with presumably a new limit. Another example how bad it is having William Hill manage a WA TAB book. 

User Fastmoney

Fastmoney 27 Feb | Posts: 4685

 Over weekends and non-business hours the limits on a horse are automatically shut once reached, so in theory if there is only $4 left before the limit held on a horse is reached then the max bet will be $4 until the horse is shortened. Understand non...

User OliversTwist

OliversTwist 27 Feb | Posts: 1230

There shouldnt be any issue with limits (for a normal sized online punter). Know one punter that successfully placed 4000 on Achernar Star at $8 so the limits are quite large. Over weekends and non-business hours the limits on a horse are automatically shut ...

User thefalcon

thefalcon 27 Feb | Posts: 15768

you've got too much money, hash.... :-B

User hash

hash 27 Feb | Posts: 6245

In reality the markets are for show anyway. I went down to the TAB Saturday to have a bet & the max I could get on the horse I wanted to back was $4. Embarrassing by the WA TAB.  i think if you call up the operators might be able to get you on for ...

User Amtheone

Amtheone 27 Feb | Posts: 37

Luckily for them you can't lose much when cash punters can get a max bet of $4 on. How hard is it to adjust a pre-post market surely doesn't take 48 hours.