Back to Feed

Ascot Preview, 16th February news

Ascot Preview, 16th February

Perth Turf Talk | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 16 February, 2018

Race 1 – #DoAwayWithTheCutAway

It won’t take a genius to figure out the theme of a few of the race names today. Seriously. Perth Racing. Or Malcolm Turnbull (I’m not sure who makes these decisions), it’s time to #DoAwayWithTheCutAway. Not only is it a blight on Perth Racing, but it cost me a fortune on Snow Blossom midweek. And yes to all you dickheads out there that suggested Cuanzo was the ‘best of the day’; good on you.

Anyway, the cutaway rants are only just beginning. As are many others.

Quite excitingly, we don’t start the day with an average maiden where nearly 20 grand is given away to an undeserving conveyance. For once, I’m quite glad to kick off the meet with some type of quality. How To Fly looks the winner on paper. But not on this paper. I feel a bit like Barnaby Joyce as I feel quite close to team Electra, but unfortunately, I’m chucking my mistress at the Jordan stable, Cognac on top.

How To Fly meets Cognac 3kg’s better for defeating him at their most recent outing, but the work Cognac did cannot be understated. It took Craig Staples half the race to find the outside of the leader. It’s run reminded me of Ben Cousins after a 4 day bender – he simply would not give up.

Brodie Kirby is the man to be on at the moment, and I can see the support rolling in for him here. Expect him to jump close to even money. I do worry with his lacklustre jump and obvious speed engaged here, that he may end up three back the pegs. Hard to win, if not impossible over the 1000m. This race will be determined by Saturia and Cognac and how the Jordan yard decides to run the race. Tango Ora will lead, Saturia should be on it’s outside with Cognac pushing across. Banking on Saturia taking a sit and Cognac finding Tango Ora’s outside. Despite the weight swing, from there it should be all over. Bon Voyage was rough not to get a mention, but a bit like Kirov Boy late in a 2400m race, I’m tiring.

Jordan quinella. Jordan – Pippen.

Selections

1 Cognac
2 Saturia
3 How To Fly

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Cognac (1). 20 wins Saturia (2).

Race 2 – Assertive

Slight mystery to me while Adam Durrant didn’t send Assetro to the $250,000 Magic Millions last week. I am not one to question the Prince Of Perth – perhaps his charger was a week short of his best. Anyway, this does look a pretty thin assignment for one of the Karrakatta hopefuls and he should be winning this.

Cockatiel ran a big debut in the Magic Millions, though was afforded all the favours from the good gate. Harder from out wide here.

This race really doesn’t excite me. I give Paul Jordan a sneaky hope of making it a running double with Carolina Reaper at big odds.

Selections

2 Assetro
1 Carolina Reaper
4 Cockatiel

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 3 – No Mean Feet

Not overly original naming a race after a horse. I don’t usually do it. But for a horse to win after having three runs in 27 months would be No Mean Feet. Clear where I was going there…

This Joy Kelly trained gelding is now a 6 year old having his fourth start and they really couldn’t have been much more impressive. At his most recent outing (which was only 140 days ago), he ran a better race than Vital Silver. We all know how well this galloper did at his next few outings. With a gelding who has been cruelled with soundness issues you would hope the barrier gods would look after him, but unfortunately this was not the case. From barrier 11, Shooter McGruddy will probably have to snag him back to near last. I still think he can win.

Rebow, unsurprisingly is the market elect here and I can see why. His most recent effort would technically be described as ‘piss poor’, but there are rumblings around that he may not have been 100%. The You Am I form, while not being Phar Lap form, is still good enough to win this. Should go close from the gate. Savuno the watch horse.

I’m going to suggest a win only bet ($8 – back early) on No Mean Feet as it is a little speculative with it’s soundness issues. Nobody got rich on a $2.40 place dividend anyway.

Selections

2 No Mean Feet
5 Rebow
4 Savuno

Suggested Bet: 60 wins No Mean Feet (2).

Race 4 – Barnaby

I know I’ve already gone with a Barnaby Joyce gag, but when you are tipping a horse called Transgressor, how can you possibly not go back to the well?

This is an incredibly hard form race to decipher. How unlucky was $1.45 favourite Masquerade at his last start? Did this Time Thief gelding get held up significantly enough to allow for the margin he was beaten? I don’t think so. And from following Robert Peters runners for a long time, I never think a drop in distance will suit. So, after last weeks successful knocks of Royal Missile & Gee Boss, I will make this my first today. Get on.

Transgressor is only a plodder. It tries it’s best and will win when conditions favour, which aren’t often, but this may be them. It ran a big race in the listed Summer Scorcher (only 3 lengths of Battle Hero) before a luckless run down the Pinjarra straight and around the Bunbury 1108m circuit when Matthieu Autier once again mistook a horse for something you’d find at a rodeo.

Dynamite Dream is a complete unknown and has to go close while Mighty Blonde is drawn to get a good run here for Kate Fitzgerald. Lou – I am NOT picking on the 3kg female apprentices. Settle down bro.

Selections

6 Transgressor
2 Mighty Blonde
7 Dynamite Dream

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places Transgressor (6).

Race 5 – #CutAwayGoAway

Olivers Travels or Veuve De Vega will win this. Really uninspired by anything else. Both will jump around the $2.50-$3 mark and I cannot see a reason to get involved.

On a rare serious note, our thoughts are with Tayla Stone after a horror fall mid-week. We wish her a full recovery as quickly as possible. Veuve De Vega will miss you.

Selections

5 Veuve De Vega
3 Olivers Travels
4 Flying Roar

Suggested Bet: No Bet.

Race 6 – Tom Percy QC

The worst horse race, but best betting medium of the day. Arctic Stream has opened up a $2.60 favourite with most agencies and despite the strength of this High Chaparral’s two wins to date, this can only be considered gross unders from the wide gate. He might be the next one to add to your ‘Terry’s knocks all-up’.

State Prosecutor is a punters nemesis. Even money first up when the 1100m was always going to be too short, before coming out on a Saturday at a big price and being the unlucky horse. This More Than Ready gelding then returned to the midweek circuit when he was a well beaten $1.75 favourite. The only time I have suggested a play was when he should have won at $12. **obscenities**. Anyway, we are clearly in sync, and I am back on board here. It has been well noted by the camp that he should be ridden ON PACE. Sherlock Holmes over here figured that out three starts ago (my services are available as a racing manager/adviser/good bloke/shit bloke) and I suspect he will position up just behind the speed. He will run out a strong 1400m.

Mirisistible is only a second starter but his trial and debut run were eye catching. Hard not to have a saver on at the $9. Will be suggesting both as win bets here.

Selections

9 State Prosecutor
7 Mirisistible
5 Arctic Stream

Suggested Bet: 40 wins State Prosecutor (9). 20 wins Mirisistible (7).

Race 7 – Cretinous

After Alan Kennedy’s last effort on Double Digit (26s to 8s for all those playing at home) I ran a little bit of a competition on twitter to describe his effort in the saddle in one word. Cretinous was the well deserved winner. I won’t translate the word for those unaware of it’s meaning, but a quick google will probably give you a quick giggle. It is mean, I know.

I really, really want to tip him on top here. He should be fit (after running 2400m last start) and I have no doubt Alan will be very keen to make amends on this noted sit and sprinter. However, I really feel like Rebellionaire is incredibly well placed here. Pike was handed a thankless task of guiding this Stratum gelding at his most recent outing, when a stack of speed was engaged underneath him. Pike made the correct move in jagging him back to last, but it was always going to be an uphill battle winning from there. He settles in the first four here and drops weight against the older horses. So hard to beat.

Jeraft has looked like a serious galloper at his maiden and class one win, but this is a different kettle of fish. Rebellionaire $2.50. Double Digit $8.50. That’s wrong. Despite tipping him second, I am going to suggest a little Double Digit each way play. G’awn Alan, make me run a one word competition describing how cool you are.

Selections

9 Rebellionaire
5 Double Digit
8 Jeraft

Suggested Bet: 25 wins and 25 places Double Digit (5).

Race 8 - #BackBrodieGrabARoadie

Been fairly content to steer away from Brodie Kirby on the Saturday meets until this point. Winning races with big claims and aggressive styles of racing in the provincials is one thing, but navigating a horse around a track with a 294m straight and class riders (take note all you jockeys who bag me – positivity) around you, is a totally different story.

This one however, I think is a gift for the young fella. Western Temple is more of a bridesmaid than Daniel Kowalski (running 2nd to Kieran Perkins rather than a gay joke this time), but this race looks tailor made for him. From the gate Brodie should be pushing forward and finding a spot outside Wavehill Spur who is weaker than Bernard Tomic with the flu.

For anyone who reads this dribble regularly you will know my opinion on Dan Staeck’s recent effort on Taxadermy. My female friend has recently been making me watch a show with zombies in it (yep) and they have more brains than he did that day. Seriously Daniel.

Watch for Persian Princess late, but this should be Western Temple’s race.

Selections

3 Western Temple
11 Persian Princess
2 Taxadermy

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Western Temple (3).

51 Comments | 3 months ago

Recent Comments

User Rodent

Rodent 19 Feb | Posts: 4147

If Messiah runs around on Good Friday, I'll be laying it because it'll be d.......

User RIO

RIO 19 Feb | Posts: 13374

^^^^^ :)) :) :)) :))

User SLIPPERGOLDEN

SLIPPERGOLDEN 19 Feb | Posts: 4998

Rio says; I've just put my last $50 on the second coming to get here first.So Rio you've backed Jesus as a saviour.

User TheDiva

TheDiva 19 Feb | Posts: 9706

Terry Leighton would be interesting in that role  :-j imagine the jockey interviews after the race.. 

User RIO

RIO 19 Feb | Posts: 13374

Something worth pondering why does Worwood and the McGrath/Kelly/Replacement role even exist still.How many race clubs have a role that Kelly had? I'll guess none and that these guys are normally employed by the media outlet that broadcast the races. In our ca...

User buffy

buffy 18 Feb | Posts: 257

NeverShow Surprise. Fair enough.

User Thumper

Thumper 18 Feb | Posts: 791

Something worth pondering why does Worwood and the McGrath/Kelly/Replacement role even exist still.How many race clubs have a role that Kelly had? I'll guess none and that these guys are normally employed by the media outlet that broadcast the races. In our ca...

User Thumper

Thumper 18 Feb | Posts: 791

He was terrible, did anybody at Perth Racing listen to his voice recorded before giving him the gig.Worwood is no good either but I assume he is only filling in again until a replacement is sought. 

User Nevershowsurprise

Nevershowsurprise 18 Feb | Posts: 581

Hi Buffy, my comment was that Matt Kelly was a very very ordinary presenter.

User buffy

buffy 18 Feb | Posts: 257

NeverShowSurprise. Hi there. You said that Matt Kelly was a terrible presenter. Are you saying that Mark Wormward is a better presenter or just as bad?