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Ascot Preview, 17th March news

Ascot Preview, 17th March

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 16 March, 2018

Race 1 – Amateur Hour

After watching the first two races at Geraldton, I am expecting to see an ad placement on Seek shortly. BARRIER ATTENDANTS REQUIRED. Absolute amateur hour on the crayfish coast. It is a regular gripe of mine (and many a WA race fan) how poor Western Australian racing can continue to be in this aspect of a multi-million-dollar industry. I just want to see a race start less than 6 minutes after the advertised start time. And I want to see horses who are clearly not fully in the barriers to be removed and scratched (Audience, race 1 – worth watching a replay). Is this too much to ask?

We welcome the Irish to Ascot on Saturday where the Guinness is cold, and the dress sense is questionable. My best bet of the day would probably be to take the over 14.5 Irishmen kicked out before the start of the quaddie. Looks to be a gift at the $1.90.

We have a stack of pace in the first event and it will be interesting to see who crosses and finds the fence. I suspect Round The Point will come across and do so, though Saturia is drawn underneath him and can go quickly. Tango Ora is probably the quickest of the lot and will be coming across, along with Wee Cent in a mad dash for the front. How To Fly does look the class animal of this event and all things being equal should be winning. I do have concerns about the 28 days between runs, big weight impost and potential for him to end up three back the pegs. He can still win from that spot, but Pike will need to use all his Wizardry.

Suspect we will see a three-wide line here and it may well be the place to be if the leaders have had enough at about the 900m. Mizlecki is the filly mapped to get the nice run in the three-wide line and has been tuned up with two very soft trials. First up last campaign she ran an unlucky fourth beating home Tango Ora & Saturia who she meets again here. Renee Forrest piloted her that day and she didn’t get much out of this Lope De Vega filly. Happy having an each way play on her at around the $6 mark.

Selections

4 Mizlecki
1 How To Fly
2 Tango Ora

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Mizlecki (4).

Race 2 – Dustin Martin

Speed horses Gee Boss, Three Votes & More Aces should shoot out of the gates like Matt Shirvington here, while the rest of the field will be running like Oscar Pistorious without his prosthetics.

The winner should come from Glenny Boss or Dustin Martin (hoping you get the Three Votes reference, it isn’t difficult) and I am leaning toward Dusty fending off the challenge of the more race fit gelding. First up for a tick over a year, Three Votes came back with a soft but slick (58.90 for the 1000m) trial, finishing second to the subsequent centurion victor, New Time. I think this Fastnet Rock gelding will have the pace to cross More Aces, which should leave Gee Boss parked on his outside. Nothing else will get a look in.

At $3.70, in what I consider a genuine two horse race, he’s worth a small spec.

Selections

5 Three Votes
3 Gee Boss
8 More Aces

Suggested Bet: 40 wins Three Votes (5).

Race 3 – Karrakatta Clash

Not sure if it is just me, but this Karrakatta Plate is shaping as one of the most intriguing in recent memory. The likes of Assetro, Driftstar, Valour Road and Nocelle have all established themselves as fancies for the Group 2, but the thing which has struck me is the fact that none of the real ‘big guns’ have met. Princess Pierro was a late scratching from the Magic Millions when she should have met Valour Road. Here we have two horses with big wraps on them doing battle with Agent Pippa and Lady Cosmology to lock horns. Throw in Princess Pierro from the inside gate and we finally will have a strong form race leading into the Karrakatta.

This will firmly be a no bet race for me, with Agent Pippa and Lady Cosmology opening at very thin quotes. I have a clear lean towards Agent Pippa after a soft trial win, while Lady Cosmology is coming off some type of set-back which saw her scratched a few weeks ago. It has been 6 weeks since she trialled. Pretty confident the Pearce trained Agent Pippa will consolidate her claim as one of the Karrakatta favourites, but I’m wary about hopping into a price too thin when Simon Miller has a supposed ‘boom’ youngster in the event.

Selections

5 Agent Pippa
9 Lady Cosmology
7 Princess Pierro

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 4 – Rolling Stone

Tayla Stone is arguably the most talented apprentice on front running types and this looks a perfect race for her mount, Belter. A fortnight ago, she tried to run them off their legs and nearly succeeded, being grabbed late by the talented Blackline. I expect her to be more circumspect here with no real obvious pace horses engaged. She should get a soft time of it out in front and has the potential to hand up if there is a surprise leader. This Denman gelding looks like the best bet of the day.

Bon Voyage appears to be the main danger, but from barrier 12 he will have to be jagged back to last or ridden for luck. With not much exposed pace in this race it could be awfully difficult making up a heap of ground. I can’t see him giving Belter several lengths on straightening and being able to reel him in. Klondike Kenny is capable of winning a race like this. The market may be the best guide after his little freshen up.

Very keen on Belter. Just hoping my favourite backing disability doesn’t flare up.

Selections

2 Belter
5 Klondike Kenny
11 Bon Voyage

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Belter (2).

Race 5 – Geraldton

This is getting beyond a joke at Geraldton. Ryan Hill is off his mount helping the barrier attendants load horses. This reminds me of under 13’s cricket when Joondalup Kinross only had 9 players, so we had to let a couple of our blokes’ field for them. Unfortunately, I reckon my under 13’s cricket side do a better job than those behind the gates at Geraldton. Darren McCauley is about to go postal, could be worth staying tuned just for that.

Keeper’s Son will look to cross and lead Spin On Command here with Wavehill Spur and the Autier ridden (loose term) Wonorg ensuring this race is run at a strong tempo. Spin On Command has opened your $2.90 favourite and labelling this under the odds would be quite the understatement. Midweek he was lucky not to be grabbed late by In Da Hood, and I don’t think that is a form line which will hold much clout in Saturday company.

Everything seems to point to Middle Earth here and I am very happy putting this Blackfriars gelding on top. His trial was excellent before he was unwanted in betting first up, dropped out to last before a very soft victory over the top of them. The fact he was unwanted in betting that day suggests he may have a fair amount of improvement in him, and I suspect he will be the one finishing over the top of them. Dan Staeck goes back on Rogan Scent in what appears to be a stubborn/loyal move by the Kersley camp. I don’t know how well he rides this Rogano mare.

Selections

7 Middle Earth
6 Keeper’s Son
1 Double Digit

Suggested Bet: 35 wins and 35 places Middle Earth (7).

Race 6 – Dude

Dudemanbro. How stoned were the Warwick’s when they named this horse? After drawing barrier one and going up a very backable $9, I would be surprised if there is a great deal of sobriety in that household after this race. Lucy has opted to ride for her old man, rather than current favourite Sandalwood, and it is no real surprise. I would not expect the disparity (Dudemanbro $9 v Sandalwood $3.90) in the market to remain as such for much longer. Dudemanbro was first up when running the quickest last 600m over 2200m. Some type of training effort from Justin. He should be fitter for the run and from barrier one should enjoy the trail on likely leader Cappo D’Oro’s back.

Couleur Bizarre should once again get the perfect run from the good draw and will appreciate the services of inform hoop Shaun McGruddy again. Sandalwood and At The Ready may be the two classiest finishers in this, but it might be difficult for either to make the ground required to catch Couleur Bizarre, Cappo D’Oro or Dudemanbro who should all appreciate soft runs on speed.

I’m expecting to see Mattieu Autier to channel his ride in the Ted Van Heemst on Hakuna Matata. This Authorized gelding has one pace and one pace only and is probably one of very few horses suited to the urgings of the French Butcher. I would not be surprised to see him try and lead this by 10 lengths. Whether he can or not is another story.

At $9, very happy being on Dudemanbro each way.

Selections

9 Dudemanbro
3 Couleur Bizarre
1 Cappo D’Oro

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Dudemanbro (9).

Race 7 - Class v Conditions

It is no secret that the two class horses in this race are Showcase and Private Dancer. The all-in markets have little between the pair at the top of the WA Oaks market and even this early on it would surprise if one or the other was not the victor. This race has however thrown up a curveball with both hotpots drawing next to each other in deep car park. The rail moves to the inside pad here and while I don’t want to predict an on-pace bias, it tends to be more than a 50% chance with our lovely little 297m straight.

Sally’s Realm is the second of the Peters runners and has looked to have come back a stronger filly this preparation. She was good over the unsuitable 1200m first up when edged out by a horse getting up on everybody’s favourite cutaway, before a comfortably victory second up from a sticky draw. The two favourites have opened around the $3 mark, while Sally’s Realm is $13. She doesn’t have the talent of the other two, but in form hoop Chris Parnham hops on from barrier 3 and she should enjoy the run of the race. What will prevail; class or conditions?

Very happy getting involved at the $13 quote.

Selections

5 Sally’s Realm
1 Private Dancer
2 Showcase

Suggested Bet: 35 wins and 35 places Sally’s Realm (5).

Race 8 – Bridesmaid & Brittany

My Grace is turning into more of a bridesmaid than Shannon Noll (a reality TV joke which hurts my soul to make, but any chance to bring up Shannon Noll cannot be ignored). I don’t think she was suited by the hard run 1400m which Corporate Larrikin put to them a fortnight ago and despite the presence of Nelson’s Flight, who will ensure this race is run at an even tempo, she will be more suited here.

Sweet Ora was huge in defeating My Grace last time they met, though the 54.5kgs to 58kg is a serious jump for a mare. In saying this, she has carried weight with success in the past. I really do think these are the class animals in the race and while many see this as an open event, I can’t really go past those two.

I should be onto my 14th Guinness by this stage of proceedings and if Baraki Beats, by some form of divine intervention is the victor here, I will let Brittany Taylor take me out on a date. I’m a man of my word.

Selections

6 My Grace
1 Sweet Ora
11 Nelson’s Flight

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 place My Grace (6).
  

47 Comments | 1 month ago

Recent Comments

User TheFunkster

TheFunkster 20 Mar | Posts: 3707

Mulga was always going to get back. Nothing won from that far back on the day. It would have had to run 34.5 last 600, which it hasnt got anywhere near at Ascot.Considering the massive track bias on the day, Showcase, At The Ready and Prize Catch, which copped...

User Jell

Jell 18 Mar | Posts: 673

Can use a whip Mr Noske

User TheSwooper

TheSwooper 18 Mar | Posts: 1404

He is my preferred jockey.

User hash

hash 18 Mar | Posts: 5555

Jarrad Noske is just simply one of the few jockeys that can actually get the most out of a horse, just look at the way he gets stuck into them at the business end, he leaves no stone unturned which is why he will always be up there in the top handful of jockey...

User piker

piker 17 Mar | Posts: 120

Had Friar Fox in the 3rd leg and the other 3 legs in!Prize Catch is a real 1400m specialist.I left out Belter in the 4th early quad leg! He was the Irish tip.I must check out Mulga; he sounded to e like a 1600m horse who might prefer Belmont.Wee Cent sure prov...

User Gilgamesh

Gilgamesh 17 Mar | Posts: 2519

How good was the C Parnham ride on Gee Boss? He's enjoyable to watch.

User H-BOMBER

H-BOMBER 17 Mar | Posts: 6250

Bigger fish to fry falc

User thefalcon

thefalcon 17 Mar | Posts: 14904

had a bugger of a day..put 2 bucks in the slot machine in the pub and up popped 500...happy days.pity about paddy..got rolled at a $1.06 fave.... :-<

User H-BOMBER

H-BOMBER 17 Mar | Posts: 6250

I just watched the replay. That's twice in a row now, painful viewing. Get it clear running ffs

User Flanders

Flanders 17 Mar | Posts: 107

Backed Friar Fox and followed up with Mulga. Both get top draws yet neither jockey can  find a  decent run when the pressure goes on. A tough game. I did exactly the same Had a nice big place double going into mulga as well. agree Mulga w...