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Ascot Preview, 28th April news

Ascot Preview, 28th April

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 27 April, 2018

Race 1 – Maiden Over

An absolute cracking Ascot card after a less than enticing midweek ANZAC day meet. 28 degrees and no precipitation on the horizon looks a fitting forecast for a great days racing.

For those of you who enjoy a maiden, you’ve had eight of them during the week, so I for one am glad to see the day kick off with a quality event. My distaste for Saturday meets with a maiden wasn’t helped by Sariska’s inability to get past Clever Dick 7 days ago. I, like most of Perth, was already in the queue.

Middle Earth and Elegant Blast look well placed here and both appear to be finally putting the runs on the board after a few teasing campaigns (Elegant Blast in particular). I think Patty Carbery pulled the wrong reign a fortnight ago when he opted to take Middle Earth between runners on straightening, rather than look for Elegant Blast’s back and get him wide. From the barrier he should be closer in the run than Lucy will be on Elegant Blast and I think that will be enough to turn the tables.

Taxagano is a horse who should appreciate the step up to 1800m, though I do have grave concerns Dan Staeck will have him sitting deep, with the big weight on a likely hot tempo set by Corporate Larrikin. If there is any form of on pace bias, then Already Famous has the ability to mix his form and the appointment of Brodie Kirby is a positive one. Should stalk Corporate Larrikin.

Selections

9 Middle Earth
6 Elegant Blast
1 Already Famous

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places Middle Earth (9).

 

Race 2 – Unbeaten Brigade

Now this is a cracker. Trying to bet or tip in this race is something of an impossibility with the contrasting form lines presented. Opinions can be formed, but when a horse like Fabergino comes out, leads and gives nothing else a look in, it can all be in vein.

The Maschino filly, Fabergino has been lightning at her two well-spaced runs to date. She has lead and given nothing else a sight when doing so. First up, without a trial and over the 1100m (her previous two wins were over 1000m), she is something of a risk with some hot ones likely to be right on her tail. I suspect betting will tell a story with her, though the 1100m may even be a mystery to the stable.

The second of the undefeated horses, Stageman should appreciate the top end speed in this and is the one who will be making his presence felt late. Pike has given him two absolute pearler rides which perhaps flatter him a touch, though the form around him did stack up. The Simon Miller trained Alpha Sky showed a heap of ability in his trials before a dominant win first up, when blowing the start and circling the field. It was the pattern for the day to come down the centre of the track and the form is far inferior to anything else in this event, though it was the authority in which he won. Barrier one may well be a negative for a horse who looks to have a few tricks out of the gates, and the current quote of $3.50 looks like gross unders. I’m not saying he can’t win, though if you intend on backing him I would be waiting for a better price on the day.

Amelie Argot rounds out the unbeaten brigade with her two victories being by a combined 5.6 lengths. This is by far her toughest test to date, though you cannot knock dominant winning form. She may be the one capable of going with Fabergino early and look for the slip stream. It might be the best spot to be.

Arrum Boy and Truly Belong don’t make my top 4 but both are more than capable of winning a race like this.

I won’t be having a bet here, but will enjoy the show.

Selections

3 Fabergino
5 Stageman
6 Alpha Sky

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 3 – High Five

Another good affair, without getting the same blood flowing to the nether regions as the previous. Happy narrowing this down to the top 5 in the racebook and further narrowing that down to the top 1.

I took a stand against In Love With Paris a fortnight ago when he was up in weight, drawn to race without cover and up against a hot little field. Despite a betting drift he proved me very wrong with a dominant victory for Paul Harvey. Harvey retains the mount here and is the right jockey for a horse who will again race on top of the speed. The obvious query and one which remains unanswered is the step up to 1500m from the 1200m. That’s why it is very hard to suggest a reasonable sized investment with confidence. There is not a huge amount of speed in this, so he should be able to cross and find the fence or at very worst sit on the outside of Lucky Roar who I suspect will be wanting a sit.

Three Secrets was no match for In Love With Paris over the 1200m, though does have winning 1500m form (over Roganella). After drawing barrier 10, I just can’t see how he fits into a speed map other than racing outside of In Love With Paris, being snagged to last or sitting deep throughout. None of these have him winning.

Gifted Warrior was OK coming out of the same race as those two and is drawn to get a nice spot in transit. If he is up to this level remains to be seen. Arctic Stream is clearly a horse with soundness problems looking at his gap between runs, while Lucky Roar will end up being the value runner in this. Won twice last campaign at big quotes and was extremely unlucky first up when Emma Stent was up in the irons twice. Could once again end up the value runner.

Another competitive affair with the 1500m being the big question mark.

Selections

1 In Love With Paris
4 Lucky Roar
5 Gifted Warrior

Suggested Bet: 50 wins In Love With Paris (1).

 

Race 4 – An Absolute Steele

Steele Casey holds a strong hand in this 62+ event, though it’s hard to tell which hand he will play. Several of his runners were withdrawn ‘by order of stewards’ just seven days ago with some not overly well publicised talk that a few of his runners were under investigation for high levels of a certain substance in their system. I know very little about this, though it does make you wonder. Avidus and Seaside Serenade were both very strong winners at big prices after coming from dirt track form.

Purely for that reason, I can’t really see how you can bet in this race not knowing exactly which Avidus & Seaside Serenade will be presented. Roganella is an extremely classy animal and assistance or no assistance for it’s competitors will still probably be too good.

I’ve decided to completely crack the shits with this race and not write any more.

Selections

6 Roganella
3 On The Turps
9 Anvil Green

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

Race 5 – Can’t Kirb His Influence

Brodie Kirby is good at riding horses. I look at a horse like Queen Tori, who he rode on Thursday at Albany. She was coming off two heavy defeats (around 25 lengths) in total with Casey Hunter & Tash Faithfull riding before Brodie jumps back on board and (albeit in a more suitable race) gets the chocolates. Horses really run for him.

For this reason, I am confident making Pinzu my best of the day. I tipped Pinzu with a degree of confidence last start when he was 7s to 2.8 and unfortunately got caught in the breeze, giving Falcon Crest the soft run required to just sneak past him. From barrier 3, Brodie will take a sit here and the horse will appreciate the extra fitness edge after jumping from 1100m to 1600m at his most recent outing. 1400m is his pet distance.

This race does continue the theme of the day, with another sharp competitive field and if there is a chink in Pinzu’s armour, this field can find it. Gigante was a very odd run last start. He looked gone a long way from home, before again picking up in the final 50m. While horses are running for Kirby, I don’t think they are running for Emma Stent which is natural after returning from a long injury lay-off. The blinkers are removed for the first time in a long time here, so expect to see this Stratum gelding ridden just off the pace, potentially on stablemate New Time’s back. The $8 on offer is unders and you’ll see double this on the day.

Red Publisher was disappointing in the Batavia Sprint after being a marked drifter from $4.80 to $17. A slightly concerning drift to say the least. I don’t think he handled the 59kgs in that event. The weight drop, likely top end speed and return to 1400m all look like major ticks for this galloper to put in a much-improved effort. He is a horse who wins out of turn and his near $30 quote is over the odds.

The Celt is a different horse under Anne King, though I think Anne may have pulled the wrong reign with her jockey selection in this. Similar to when Guus Hiddink benched Mark Schwarzer in favour of the walking hair gel commercial, Zeljko Kalac in the 2006 World Cup, I think the decision to tell CJP to have a spell in favour of Alan Kennedy may look regretful in hindsight.

Happy taking on See Me Sizzle & Senso. I can’t see either winning here.

Selections

2 Pinzu
7 Red Publisher
1 Gigante

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Pinzu (2). 20 wins Red Publisher (7).
 

Race 6 – Stop, Miller Time

The Group 3 Gimcrack Stakes doesn’t quite have the same intriguing field the Karrakatta had, but nonetheless it looks a competitive race. Simon Miller is the king of the two-year old’s and I would be surprised if his star pair in Lady Cosmology and Valour Road don’t run the quinella.

The first 200m of this event will be interesting with Valour Road drawing the outside of Lady Cosmology. There isn’t a huge amount of alternate speed in this race, so I suspect we may see Valour Road sit outside Lady Cosmology. I wouldn’t be surprised if Simon Miller has a little word in Aaron Mitchell’s ear and tells him not to go too hard and pour the pressure on his other charger too early. If they can control the tempo into the straight, they should have the race between themselves.

Interestingly during the week Steve Wolfe has come out and suggested Lordhelpmerun will be ridden more aggressively. By this, I presuming he meant he would be looking to instruct Shooter McGruddy to make a sustained run from the 500 or 600m mark. This could well pour the pressure on the front two if he is true to his word.

Global Reset and Red Snitz add some extra interest to this event after two last start dominant wins, though I do think the class of the Karrakatta field will prevail and we will see the same trifecta (albeit in a slightly different order) here.

Selections

8 Lady Cosmology
1 Valour Road
2 Lordhelpmerun

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Lady Cosmology (8).
 

Race 7 – Star Power

It’s rare you’ll see a 1000m race where there is minimal pace engaged. Tirreno and Secret Assault look the logical leaders, though the connections of My Demi may look to alter the tactics of his last start victory and ride him more aggressively. Tirreno fits the current Steele Casey winner mould, though I am not sure about his decision to chuck Casey Hunter on. Again, as stated above it is hard to know what to expect from Steele’s runners. His trial was good and if the day does have an on pace feel the $30 on offer could be worth a nibble.

There is really only one horse in this race and that is of course, Enticing Star. I expect to see this Testa Rossa mare at Ascot on the last Saturday in November. She looks to be at a totally different level to these. In saying that, she is by no means a certainty and the decision to race her over the 1000m is slightly questionable. She has shown poor barrier manners and from her inside alley is likely to find herself a few horses back on the fence. Never easy to win over the sprint journey from there. I do think if she is afforded any type of luck she will still blow these away, however at $1.50, I don’t think this is the time to jump in.

My Laina looks the value runner. Her win over My Demi (My Demi is $8, My Laina is $20 here) was totally against the on-pace pattern of the day, before a luckless last start effort when she was held up the entirety of the straight. She has drawn the complete outside gate, though was likely to get back in running anyway. Over the 1000m she will need a lot to go right (and a fair track), but if Enticing Star is held up on the inside of runners, I have no doubt she will be one flashing late.

It may be worth waiting for the pattern of the day before determining if a bet on a sit and sprint horse is a winning possibility over the 1000m.

Selections

13 Enticing Star
12 My Laina
7 My Demi

Suggested Bet: 10 wins and 30 places My Laina (12).
 

Race 8 – Belted

Really hard to go past Belter in another highly competitive event to complete a brilliant days racing. In his new customary pace making role, he hasn’t given his competitors a look in at two of his last three starts and was only defeated when Jason Brown took it up to him with More Aces. Chinetti is the only speed horse who I could have seen going with him early, though he may be a campaign or two past that early toe. There is the worry Belter has peaked already this campaign and barrier one can often be a dangerous barrier, with more than its fair share of occupants failing to step cleanly. It’ll be interesting to see if Belter can buck that trend.

Lockroy put in a close to career best effort when dismantling a sharp Batavia Sprint field in Geraldton. He was afforded an unchallenged lead that day, though he really did make the rest of them look second rate. He only meets Belter 1kg better from their last outing when he was beaten by nearly three lengths. Being third up, he should be at peak fitness however.

I really liked Cash On Call’s trial and he does fly fresh, but this is his toughest assignment to date. Will need a ten out of ten ride from The Wizard. The one which represents the most value and a little like My Laina is a ‘wait and see’ bet, is Star Glitter. Was a huge run in the Batavia Sprint and with the inform Chris Parnham on, should settle midfield with cover from a middle draw. At around the $25 mark, if they are making ground down the centre of the track, there are worse each way bets.

Selections

2 Belter
9 Star Glitter
1 Lockroy
  

46 Comments | 4 months ago

Recent Comments

User hash

hash 01 May | Posts: 5912

is there anything for those runners not quite up to the mark in the Sires to contest in the next week or two?

User Chelsea

Chelsea 01 May | Posts: 1192

Yesterday's winner has the best chance going forward you would think. and Bams On Fire If it ever gets out of the gates,but I think it's had a few gutbusters as a 2yo.Do not know if it will come back as a 3yo.

User hash

hash 30 Apr | Posts: 5912

all good mate, was a ridiculously tight finish for 3rd wasn't itstill confused as to why the connections wanted to ride it back that day and not try lead or atleast be up on pace... speeding comet who sat 3 deep just behind the two leaders has managed to still...

User Jell

Jell 30 Apr | Posts: 730

Going very wide and sentimental in the next, Tirreno. just no run available at a critical time when others were in the clear I had a nibble at 61/8 when it drifted. She had a gap which would have gave her a run and probably a place but just didn't have ...

User Rodent

Rodent 29 Apr | Posts: 4261

The 2 good horses are each now 3 from 3. Fab and ES.

User RIO

RIO 29 Apr | Posts: 13627

not sure about the sires... but we saw two top liners yesterday in other races I reckon.  Fabergino & Ripper Rio  ^:)^ ^:)^ the 2 good ones were Fabergino.......just twice the horse of anythign else we have seen for a while!!! hahaha ;-)

User hash

hash 29 Apr | Posts: 5912

not sure about the sires... but we saw two top liners yesterday in other races I reckon.  Fabergino & Ripper Rio  ^:)^ ^:)^

User hash

hash 29 Apr | Posts: 5912

Yesterday's winner has the best chance going forward you would think. and Bams On Fire

User Thunderstruck

Thunderstruck 29 Apr | Posts: 1847

Fabergino and In Love With Paris? Roganella was pretty good 1st up also, FRK has a few handy ones on the books atm. As does Tiarnna Robertson with the flying Fabergino!

User TheDiva

TheDiva 29 Apr | Posts: 9872

not sure about the sires... but we saw two top liners yesterday in other races I reckon.