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Ascot Preview, 29th December news

Ascot Preview, 29th December

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 28 December, 2018

A brief lull in what has been a tremendous summer carnival, as we all recover from our Christmas food comas and come to terms with the reality that this is the best eleven cricketers our country can put on a cricket field. Nonetheless, I still think we’ve found a few winners to build an early bank for 2019.

Race 1 - Ruby Rose

I won’t bother with a speed map for the youngsters, though from the trials of Arion Lass and Angel Jupiter there does appear to be a few who have a reasonable amount of early speed. Very simply going to stick with Rubic Rose who now has race experience, is drawn well and meets the gelding who beat her by a very small margin, better at the weights.

Good pick up ride for CJP who should finally return to race riding after a nasty fall and recent tussle with a young terrier.

At around $2.50, Rubic Rose is the right price. I’m going to stay out unless I see $3+. Few unknowns with the unraced brigade.

Selections

Rubic Rose
Arion Lass
Beethoven
Angel Jupiter

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 2 - Miller’s Market

Speed Map - Olivia Knows (barrier 3) will have designs on holding the rail, though I can see Excise Free (4) working its way to the top for Chris Parnham. This should allow William Pike to aptly follow his fillies name and Kiss The Breeze (6) outside of Excise Free. Deangles (2) races handy from the good draw with Market Ruler (5) potentially in a sticky spot in a small field. Might be safest for Kate to just drop her out to last.

Race Overview - Not a race I am overly interested in as a betting proposition. Every man and his dog will be tipping Excise Free, but as I alluded to last week before her scratching, this is a massive class jump to face Market Ruler and Kiss The Breeze. If she is capable of making the step up, then this race does look well set up for her with the rail likely on offer.

Market Ruler has won brilliantly at her last two and Kate Witten handled her to perfection. Jumps 2.5kg’s here and drops down to the 1000m from 1100m. Weight does always eventually catch up with them, but the way she won, it’d be no surprise to see her finishing over them again with the big impost.

Kiss The Breeze is the hardest runner to gauge. Was unlucky start after start last campaign when not having the rub of the green with barriers or in running. Went forward in a recent trial and I suspect that’ll be the move here. Going to put her on top with the 5kg swing on Market Ruler.

Not a race I am overly interested in.

Selections

Kiss The Breeze
Market Ruler
Excise Free
Deangles

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 3 - Pearls And Patrick

Speed Map - Really does look to be a soft lead on offer for Vital Silver (9) here. Should be able to amble across from the wide gate and find the rail with only King Of Chaos (4) and Fair Sonari (2) likely to have any objections to that. Fair Sonari is probably too early in his campaign to have major designs on the lead, while King Of Chaos is a better horse with cover. They’ll all want Vital Silver’s back.

Pearl Trade (1) has really lost her barrier manners this campaign and it’s anybody's guess where she’ll end up from the inside marble. She could be last or she could have Vital Silver’s back. The senior going back on may see her manners improve. Patapus (7) will look for a spot in the first four which could get sticky from the alley while Truly Belong (5) will be aiming to be no worse than midfield with the step up to 1400m. Pike will want the final crack at them.

Race Overview - It’s a horrible thing to feel ‘committed’ to backing or tipping a horse, but it has got to that point with Pearl Trade. Having been on all campaign, there is not many restricted grade runners going better than this daughter of Trade Fair. All three runs from a spell have been huge and the senior jockey does go on here in a sign of intent from trainer Alan Mathews. Will not be able to catch Vital Silver with a tardy getaway and settling last on the fence, but if Pat can have her on Vital Silver’s back from the inside gate, which is not an impossibility, then she can get over that talented gelding late.

Vital Silver does look another level to these runners and with a gun held to my head would be the obvious on top selection. Value wise at $1.90 against the $9.50 (and $2.50 the place moreso), Pearl Trade does look the more enticing betting proposition in a place heavy sense. Arguably could have won 2 of his last 3 and would be carrying 4kg’s more here if that was the case. We’ll go that way, place heavy.

Selections

Pearl Trade
Vital Silver
Truly Belong
Patapus

Suggested Bet: 25 wins and 75 places Pearl Trade (5).

 

Race 4 - Royalty

Speed Map - Mrs Brown’s Boy (barrier 6) looks to have a mortgage over the speed in this race. Should find the top really easily here. Miracle Man (3) is a horse who has down a lot of his good work out in front, though has not been jumping with the same fluency this campaign. Finally draws a good gate and expect Jarrad Noske to park in just behind the speed alongside Taxagano (2). Reveille (4) is naturally a slow beginner, but Chris Parnham will be aware that winning this race will involve settling forward of midfield for a horse who rarely does so. Royal Command (5) will be an interesting watch early with the four horses drawn underneath him all wanting a similar spot. Barrier 5, while not appearing overly sticky on the surface could end up being so. He may end up back in sixth or seventh - a lot will have to do with how well away Reveille is on his inside. Pike will be quick to cross her if she is tardy.

Race Overview - Royal Command picks himself here. I wasn’t sold on his first three runs this campaign but his last two efforts have been huge. Looks to be relishing the extra distance and draws his best alley all campaign. If within three or four lengths on straightening, should be too strong for these late.

Mrs Brown’s Boy is a clear second elect and could even be considered a better investment in an each way sense, than Royal Command at the current prices. The strength of his last start second to Double Digit will be underrated considering the work he had to do early to find the top. With a more fluent jump and stride to find the rail, he will be seriously hard to catch late. Keep in mind this is a horse who pushed Arcadia Prince to a long head three starts ago when only carrying 1kg less. That form clearly now looks strong with a WFA victory next to his name.

Miracle Man has had no luck this campaign and is a winning hope with Reveille rounding out the chances.

I do like Royal Command, but think Mrs Brown’s Boy is on top for a long way. Shame they meet each other here, but pretty keen on the quinella.

Selections

Royal Command
Mrs Brown’s Boy
Miracle Man
Reveille

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Royal Command (5).

 

Race 5 - Perth Cup Prelude

Speed Map - Cappo D’Oro (barrier 4) should be able to go forward and take control of this event in a very similar manner to his Towton Cup victory three weeks ago. The three roughies in the field - Heart Starter (5), Persistence Time (3) and Mr Alby (1) may look to roll forward or even make a mid race move in an effort to steal victory, but withstanding tactics of those nature it does look like this will be another moderately run staying event.

How Action (4) and Mississippi Delta (6) manage to settle on the slow speed again will be an interesting watch. It is against William Pike’s usual racing style, but I would not be surprised to see Action look to make a sustained move from the 800m if it is a dawdle.

Royal Star (2) SHOULD look to take a sit just off Cappo D’Oro. Better horse with cover.

Race Overview - You’d be brave taking the $1.85 Action here. He has been my tip for the Perth Cup since he opened at $26 a few weeks ago, but this event does look to lack the pace a natural stayer of Action’s ilk would enjoy. The cerise and white crew would also have their eyes on the bigger prize in 7 days time.

Cappo D’Oro picks himself from a speed map point of view and at $6 it’ll be the way I’d go. The each way quote ($1.50 a place) isn’t quite there, so a small spec on Jarrad Noske to lift this son of Medaglia D’Oro to victory will do me. Should have won both a Pinjarra and Bunbury Cup - a really underrated galloper who should be rated 95+ with those victories under his belt.

Big watch on Royal Star heading towards the Perth Cup. Never saw daylight last time out and is definitely the forgotten horse.

Selections

Cappo D’Oro
Action
Royal Star
Mississippi Delta

Suggested Bet: 30 wins Cappo D’Oro (4).

 

Race 6 - Donald

Speed Map - Expecting Paul Harvey to be aggressive on Watch Me Ney Ney (barrier 5) and go straight to the top here. Looks a race devoid of a huge amount of natural speed so with a strong Pontiff on top, could be hard to run down from there. Nordic King will likely end up on the back of whoever does take up the running with Reef Keeper (7) always a chance of rolling forward.

Summit Trail (9) has traditionally attempted to lead his races, though both efforts this campaign has been huge when opting for a sit. You’d suspect they might continue with those tactics. Trump This (11) drifts back from the wide draw while Crystal Valley (6) should be able to hold a midfield spot from the better draw here.

Race Overview - Upon initial acceptances, Trump This looked an absolute special, but we can now see the dreaded bar shoe has been added to his gear. This hasn’t deterred punters early ($3.80 to $3), but that is a bit thin for me now with that major question mark next to his name. Being from such an astute stable, it is probably not as big an issue as it could be elsewhere however.

Going to tip another horse who really should have won her last two and put Crystal Valley on top. Gets in on the minimum here when she very easily could and should have added 4kg’s to her allotment after her last two starts. This is a gift weight for a horse who is low level flying. Faced Nordic King three starts ago when Nordic King was the superior of the two efforts, though that race was run a lot different to how this event will be. She looks to have gone to another level since then. This is a step up in grade, but at $8 and $2.50 the place she looks a great each way proposition.

Nordic King is drawn to win, but the 59 kg's is a great leveller and he would not be wanting to have to outsprint Trump This or Crystal Valley late.

Selections

Crystal Valley
Trump This
Watch Me Ney Ney
Nordic King

Suggested Bet: 50 wins and 50 places Crystal Valley (12).

 

Race 7 - Grey Day

Speed Map - Belter (barrier 3) and Wrinkly (11) should spear along for two young apprentices and ensure this is a hotly contested 1200m dash. Get Over It (1) and Mad Brad (2) should be the beneficiaries of this speed battle with both drawn to get the suck runs behind the speed. In Love With Paris (9) will look to come across from 9 and should be able to pop in behind the speed with the rest sorting themselves out via barriers. Candlelight Star (7) should settle worse than midfield and have the final crack.

Race Overview - Happy narrowing this down to two winning chances and while neither are at cricket score odds, both are at backable prices. Candlelight Star broke through for a well deserved victory on Arcadia Queen Day, when absolutely monstering the line for Damian Lane. He loses nothing with William Pike going on top and should appreciate the speed in this event. Will no doubt run the quickest final splits, it is just about how big the head start he gives them.

Get Over continues on with his 412th trainer in his 19 start career and does look well placed on the minimum from the inside gate. Looked to perhaps slightly peak on his effort a fortnight ago, but is better suited over the 1200m and racing closer to the speed. Confident the way this race will be run with Bonnie Palise and Kate Witten going at each other out in front, that it will suit something coming from off the speed.

Red Publisher was a huge effort at WFA and can never be discounted in a race of this nature, but I am happy playing win bets on both Candlelight Star ($3.70) and Get Over It ($6.50). Not the most exciting betting structure, but confident it’ll be a winning one.

Selections

Candlelight Star
Get Over It
Red Publisher
Gunnago

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Candlelight Star (4). 30 wins Get Over It (10).

 

Race 8 - Forgiveness

Speed Map - A speed map with a lot of potential for variance. Rising Sea (barrier 14) has lead at his two most recent outings, though from the sticky draw there might be some consideration given to taking a sit. Invisible Pro (9), Tycoon Target (2), Distant Trilogy (16), Wild Fusion (13) and Yeah Bravo (1) are all runners who would prefer to take a sit, but could be potential pacemakers, especially those drawn wide who don’t want to be left out in the cheap seats.

Lorentinio (6) is a horse who does his best work when leading, though isn’t always the cleanest stepper. If finding the top, is not an impossibility despite the Geraldton form. While the speed map does look quite uncertain, I am expecting a strong tempo.

Lightly weighted Sariska (5), Send My Love (4) and Western King (8) are all drawn to settle midfield and appreciate a reasonable top end speed.

Race Overview - I’m not usually one for forgiveness, but I am happy putting a line through Sariska’s first up run. On an extremely leader bias day at Pinjarra, she never got into the race and fought jockey Patrick Carbery the majority of the journey. Lucy Warwick replaces Patrick Carbery who has opted for Send My Love, in a positive jockey change for a horse who needed a fresh look. Was touted as a potential top liner early in her career and has ran some races which suggest there are many Saturday victories in her. The instructions will very simply be to let this mare settle midfield with cover, get her wide on straightening and allow her to let down.

Send My Love and Western King are another pair who look perfectly placed in this event after having minimal luck first up.

At around $7.50, Sariska is an absolute no brainer each way selection. She is yet to SP above $4.40 in her 6 start career.

Selections

Sariska
Send My Love
Western King
Lorentinio

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Sariska (14).
 

28 Comments | 4 months ago

Recent Comments

User Rodent

Rodent 30 Dec | Posts: 4450

He ran as a 67 rater at Belmont on July 18. 6th beaten 4L. Then 8th/10 at Kal. Dropped 4 points in those 2 runs. Very generous of the handicapper. I'm grateful as he wouldn't have won yesterday with the extra half kilogram.

User savethegame

savethegame 29 Dec | Posts: 1118

 Avidus went  to 71 rater after his win over lets twist at bunbury when he was a 68 rater then he was disqualified so no prizemoney, In the period before inquiry was completed he had two runs as a 71 rater before  penalty was handed down june 15...

User Rodent

Rodent 29 Dec | Posts: 4450

Avidus' trial win was great and he "won" really well at Bunbury 2nd up carrying 58kg beating Let's Twist and Flower Of Scotland. They are horses well up to Saturday graduations. With only 54.5kg he went into the race a 63 rater. He was a 68 rater when he "won"...

User TheSwooper

TheSwooper 29 Dec | Posts: 1486

I'd be surprised if Steele's phone doesn't stop ringing today. A miracle worker.

User thefalcon

thefalcon 29 Dec | Posts: 15601

unreal!!

User savethegame

savethegame 29 Dec | Posts: 1118

Wouldn't be done to often your last win at Laverton ,your next win metro.meet on a Saturday avidus.

User choc

choc 29 Dec | Posts: 733

If Crystal Valley had won, I would have had me best day ever. North of 6 figures for sure.  :(( ~X(   :-q   :-& Send the invoice to T Turner 

User Rodent

Rodent 29 Dec | Posts: 4450

If Crystal Valley had won, I would have had me best day ever. North of 6 figures for sure.  :(( ~X(   :-q   :-&

User trooper

trooper 29 Dec | Posts: 671

The Carvery No surprise really They gave up some $$$

User choc

choc 29 Dec | Posts: 733

The easiest sport in the world is Jockey Bagging. But the vast majority of WA Jockeys are absolute robots. How does T Turner keep getting a ride for starters. P Carbery on Send My Love. Restrains it for an enternity, let it slide a little more forward earl...