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Ascot Preview, 2nd February news

Ascot Preview, 2nd February

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 1 February, 2019

Race 1 - Nick Knight

Perfect conditions for racing on Saturday after a sweltering midweek in Perth. 28 degrees and clear skies - absolutely no excuses to not tip the card.

A weak looking maiden to kick off the day with the $30,000 prize pool looking more than sufficient for the lucky recipient. True Image is one of the Peters and Durrant runners who simply just pick themselves when they rise in distance, but what happened a fortnight ago is difficult to swallow. $3 out to $15 in betting when Pike had a nice cart up in the three wide line but the horse never really found the line. One or two others who have proven themselves to be mediocre gallopers at best actually attacked the line with more gusto. The 1100m was always going to be too short, but I was hoping to see more late. In saying that, this is a weak maiden and this is a well related Bob Peters mare from a good alley. She deserves favouritism, but at $3 I’m going to pop my head elsewhere.

Combat Ready is always well supported in betting and I expect that won’t change here. Does look your likely leader in a race devoid of a lot of speed, but the first up effort at 1400m will challenge. From hole 13, some fuel will be used early to get across and Renee’s city winners are few and far between these days. Would be a nice story for the father/daughter combo to salute.

Pretty happy with one I’ve found, which is probably a little bit out of the box. Knight Tempest won’t have the same pedigree or fanfare as a few of the other runners in the race, but it has been ticking along very nicely for Fenella Martin and Jerry Noske who teamed up for a winner not long ago. At his first career run, he was drawn wide and restrained to last. He found some trouble at the top of the straight, before flashing between runners to finish third. He was the only runner to really make ground in that event. Second up he again drew horribly in barrier 14, where Jerry was choiceless in jagging him back to last. While this run doesn’t look as aesthetically pleasing, it was better than the first. Only Creative Hero (who has since sat three deep the trip in a reasonable quality midweek field on Wednesday to win) ran a quicker final 200m. The Bunbury track throughout the majority of the season has been an absolute mud pit out wide so to run any type of sectional out there is telling. It was a superior effort to the horse who ran fourth that day, Pearls In Heaven, who subsequently won an Ascot maiden on Wednesday. That maiden included Adornment and Ebony Magi and it was an impressive win - it’s arguable that maiden is just as strong, if not stronger than this affair.

After drawing 10 and 14 he now comes into 5, (he has looked to have reasonable gate speed, but has had to be restrained due to barriers) and should be able to use the good draw to settle forward of midfield. I’d love to see Jerry get some galloping room on straightening and see what this son of Musket can do when he doesn't need a periscope to see the leader

That’s a lot of words for a maiden, but I am pretty keen he can run a race. Still shopping just shy of the $20 mark. Good each way quote.

Selections

Knight Tempest
True Image
Combat Ready
Prized Nemesis

Suggested Bet: 35 wins and 35 places Knight Tempest (6).

 

Race 2 - Terrible Twos

Hard to go past the Dion Luciani trained Amarillo Rose here. Nice win on debut at cricket score odds with a recent trial showing she has come back in good order.

There were a few other nice triallers engaged and the king of kids, Simon Miller has a pair of runners which makes the $1.75 on offer for the toppy hard to come at.

No bet for me.

Selections

Amarillo Rose
Gunnedoo
Venetian Jewel
Wicklow Princess

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 3 - Casey’s View

Another event I can’t get overly enthused about as a betting proposition. Fairview’s last effort was simply too good to ignore when she really had no right to do what she did with 200m to go. Her splits were huge. I think looking at the quality of the $100,000, 1400m race on Sunday, Sean Casey may have wished he pulled the other reign. A repeat of that effort simply wins this and probably wins that too.

Expecting big improvement from Caerhelan, who just wasn’t right. Ross Price is not the type of trainer to ‘just give them another run’ for the sake of it. Is two from two with Pike on board, expecting big improvement from her and also The Finest who was run off her legs last start.

Snowchino won’t be able to lead this and proved to be a superior animal when doing so, while Liberty Magic is one worth keeping an eye on at odds. Opened up at $101 which was quickly shuttled into $31. Is not the maddest play in the world after hitting the line nicely at his two relatively unlucky debut runs.

Fairview on top, but can’t take $2.60 about a horse who traded close to $50 in a similar class event last start.

Selections

1 Fairview
3 Caerhelan
6 The Finest
5 Liberty Magic

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 4 - Jade’s Comet

Hoping this is the first leg of a running double for in form apprentice, Jade McNaught. Speeding Comet was an absolute revelation last campaign, making Enticing Star earn her wins against her. That form line looks OK here. From barrier 9 it looks like a very awkward speed map for Jade. The early announcement Lofty Lad will be ridden with cover, does give me hope she can cross one of the two James Grieve speedsters down the bottom and sit outside the speed. If that happens with some petrol tickets remaining, then this is all over. If not and she does sit three deep the trip on speed, she is still not without hope. She really pinged the gates last start before being restrained, I’m putting her on top with the hope there will be no restraint shown here.

Night Voyage is one of the most improved horses in Perth but is concerningly drawn to lob onto the back of Copper Fury. Could be a worrying spot to be when that horse chucks it in reverse with about 200m to go. Big task to get stopped in your tracks, then pick up and sprint with 61.5kg’s (after the claim). That’s a stack of dead weight.

Macroy will be the well supported runner and with 53kg’s you can see why. Should park up behind the willing speed battle and could just about win on weight. I do think she is clearly the inferior runner to the other main chances, but conditions to appear to suit.

Selections

Speeding Comet
Macroy
Night Voyage
Lofty Lad

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Speeding Comet (2).

 

Race 5 - Bobcat

I’m fairly bullish here.

From a speed map point of view, this race could not look any more obvious. Captain Stirling leads with Dia De La Raza likely to work to his outside, though we could see the big fellow, Epic Grey work forward to outside the speed. Snow Lord will park on the back of Captain Stirling. From there, you would expect Captain Stirling to shake off the horse on it’s outside, regardless who it is, making it difficult for the likes of Seeker and Candlelight Star to get the tow into the race they will require. Our girl Jade McNaught should comfortably be able to extricate Snow Lord from the heels of Captain Stirling after he gives this expected kick on straightening, shaking the horse to his outside off. From there, can he run down the Roy Rogers flying machine? An emphatic yes.

Full credit to how Roy Rogers has got this son of Written Tycoon going this campaign with two avalanches of money coming for two dominant wins at Narrogin and down the Pinjarra straight. Neither second placed horse Thunderplump or Delaney have really made that form look outstanding, but the manner and distance in which he won does offset that fact. Still, this step up in grade is heavy.

Snow Lord is a very predictable animal. He needs boxes ticked - this type of grade (or even slightly harder), good gate, and 1100m MAX (preferably the 1000m of this event) and he is very hard to beat. This is a very weak 70+. Two starts back he knocked off The Celt, despite a lot of things going wrong for him in the run. Gee Boss, Jingtang and Belter were all in that event and all would be winning this. He most recently started in the very hot Summer Scorcher, when he drew wide, forcing Chris Parnham to restrain him to last. Aesthetically, it did not appear that pleasing of a run, but the data from that event suggests just how strong that race was. Despite running second last, he ran the sixth quickest last 200m for the day and fourth quickest last 600m for the entire day. He was just simply not suited from the wide gate against some very, very good horses. If he draws a gate he probably finishes around three lengths off them and starts $2.40 here.

$5.50 is still on offer. My best of 2019 thus far. Start up the bobcat.

Selections

Snow Lord
Captain Stirling
Seeker
Candelight Star

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Snow Lord (2).

 

Race 6 - Even Stevens

A really even bunch of gallopers do battle in this restricted grade event. There is the potential for a reasonable amount of top end speed here, with Beaucount being the unknown in the map. He was ridden with a sit at his most recent outing and the camp might given some consideration to riding him this way for another start or two, rather than adopting the front running tactics which did not yield a win last campaign. He is more than just a one paced galloper and could actually win a few races ridden cold. It’ll be an interesting watch.

Truly Belong looks the obvious selection, but he is that ‘almost’ type of horse. If I’m backing him, I’d want to be taking $2+ a place with an each way ticket You may not see that here.

Two which caught the eye last time out were Golgotha and Laufey. While Golgotha’s run was eye catching, he was entitled to do what he did. The track was suiting horses making ground and he hadn’t done a touch until straightening. Still, for a horse noted for stamina over speed, it showed he is in good order.

Laufey was one I was quite bullish on second up when backed from $26 into $11. Joey had the option of having Western King’s back that day, but tried to be a little bit cute when saving a bit of ground on the bend. He didn’t get out and rolling until the race was all over, but the way he hit the line suggests he would have got very close to knocking off the eventual winner, Western King, if following him into it. Barrier one could be a blessing or a curse for a horse who has lacked gate speed at his two most recent outings, but when winning his maiden over Abdicator he did lead.

Not going to suggest a bet here but I’d be looking at one of Golgotha or Laufey at around the $10-15 mark if you were that way inclined.

Selections

Golgotha
Laufey
Truly Belong
Beaucount

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 7 - Show Your Mettle

You initially look at this race and want to find a way to get Misty Metal beaten with the wider gate and increased weight, but there should be no stopping her. Amazingly she drifted out to $3.30 at her most recent outing when they robbed a Chubbs security van to back The Celt. There is no reason she doesn’t find the outside of Belter again here and the extra weight impost does not appear to be enough to stop her. I am mindful of a mare carrying 58.5kg’s, but she has carried weight in the past without issue.

Mr Motown is the runner capable of causing an upset. Last campaign he beat Galaxy Star and Durendal at consecutive starts, when at very healthy odds. Is not the most glamorous galloper, but simply knows how to sit on speed and fight late. Draws four here, has not trialled so should be nice and fresh and is capable of landing on Misty Metal’s back. May be the one worth a place bet at around $5.50 for those who aren’t keen on taking the evens about the flying mare.

Lockroy would have been a live hope if he had drawn a gate, while Abdicator is the watch runner here. He’ll be doing his best work late and should be more suited over 1400m-1600m. From the awkward draw, I haven’t even got him in my top 4.

Abdicator does have a huge following, so I am expecting some reasonable support for the Darren Mc Auliffe gelding which may see us shop at nearly $2.50 for Misty Metal on the exchange. That’s the dream anyway.

Selections

Misty Metal
Mr Motown
Belter
Lockroy

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Misty Metal (3).

 

Race 8 - Eye Witness

Extremely competitive event to round out a good days racing, with seven last start winners engaged.

I’ve changed my mind a few times here, but I’ve been really impressed with the way Time To Hunt has won at the provincials, with the form around it stacking up to some degree. A horse who has always promised the world, but delivered a small 2x1 in Balga, is finally living up to the hype with his recent wins looking effortless. I really like the appointment of Mitch Pateman who will look to have him forward of midfield in a race which will be run at a cracking tempo. The likes of Reveille, Witness In Court, Paddy’s Shadow and Western King are all likely to settle behind him in the run and Mitch will want to utilise the tactical speed of a fit and firing horse to have a gap on those sharp finishes upon straightening.

You could make a case for any of the aforementioned runners, but I do expect to see Witness In Court run a bold race. Not until this current campaign Tycoon Legend is going through, have I seen a horse have such a luckless run at the races. The form around Come Play With Me, My Greek Boy and Tellem We’re Comin is superior to what the majority of these have been facing. Is one who will definitely be suited by the speed Corporate Larrikin injects into this and if Troy Turner can have him wide on straightening, watch him rocket home.

It’s no fun having a no bet race to round out the day, so we’ll suggest a small win bet on Time To Hunt and Witness In Court. With good money likely to come in for the likes of Western King and Paddy’s Shadow I would think you’d be best off shopping late. $5 and $30+ should be available about the pair respectively.

Selections

6 Time To Hunt
4 Witness In Court
3 Reveille
12 Paddy’s Shadow

Suggested Bet: 30 wins Time To Hunt (6). 10 wins Witness In Court (4).
  

38 Comments | 4 months ago

Recent Comments

User jum

jum 04 Feb | Posts: 2389

Very good looking woman also. :\">

User H-BOMBER

H-BOMBER 04 Feb | Posts: 6982

#backjadegetpaid

User thefalcon

thefalcon 04 Feb | Posts: 15633

who, jade? don't forget she is 30 and been around the international traps. she, imo, has a bright future.

User GLAMOUR

GLAMOUR 04 Feb | Posts: 344

Nice to see another apprentice,finally coming through,was starting to worry,about the lack of apprentices, mind you 1 doesnt really help the cause.

User SLIPPERGOLDEN

SLIPPERGOLDEN 03 Feb | Posts: 5212

Not a boast but an example. My UK contact tipped me one in Ireland recently that was in his opinion well overs. At 6am UK time he told me the price was an error.  I took $61 with the boost. The horse was backed throughout the day UK time from $41 and...

User Gepetto

Gepetto 02 Feb | Posts: 72

Early markets are more about finding errors than betting into an overall poor market percentage.

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 02 Feb | Posts: 8131

Jell that's a great tip on Mr. Motown... be careful on those early markets...they go up at around 150% or worse...it still beats me how anybody can Consistently win betting early into markets of that %. I'm no mathamatician ( can't even spell it haha ) but...

User khass

khass 02 Feb | Posts: 2

I feel your pain 3/4 legs..I had FAE but left out Mowtown :-S

User paraletic

paraletic 02 Feb | Posts: 3086

Had a small percentage of the quaddie going in the last.... had the 5 and 15 in it. Not the 11 :((

User Chris

Chris 02 Feb | Posts: 3727

F@&k me talk about taking unders. Took 41/6.5 about Mr Motown. Paid 81/13 fixed :-O Heart bleeds for you.