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Ascot Preview, 3rd February news

Ascot Preview, 3rd February

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Sat 3 February, 2018

Race 1 – Skip

This must be close to the poorest excuse for a $30,000 race you will see. The fact that I give the dynamic Chanelle O’Grady & Rod Lewis combination a chance of teaming up for success, tells a story on its own.

But, best of luck to the owners and connections involved. I am not one well placed to say much as my best finish as an owner was when we ran fourth in a midweek maiden at Ascot. In all fairness we did go on to run two slashing seconds’ in Yalgoo (4 horse fields) at our next couple of starts. So yeah, buy a horse with me and you won’t go wrong.

Liked the look of Infernal Star’s debut run when finishing in a photo with the likes of Finance, Distant Trilogy and Hillbert. Think that form is the superior form here. Didn’t appear to be asked for much by Ryan Hill in a recent trial and looks a safe each way play from the good gate at around the $5 - $6 mark.

Tycoon Legend comes out of the Princess Zelda race (which does come from How To Fly form), so could be considered the better form lines, but I really felt the race was there for Tycoon Legend to go straight past the Princess. Was a tough effort for her to hold on. Second up from a year off the circuit is always a worry. Vermont Lady and to a lesser extent Bloomy’s Sun have been bookie’s bankers in recent campaigns and I refuse to contribute to that any longer.

Selections

5 Infernal Star

6 Nobelium

3 Tycoon Legend

 

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places Infernal Star (5).

 

Race 2 – Pike’s Penance

Tell you what, there has been some Wizardry bashing on social media recently. His ride on Action was questioned a fortnight ago, when I simply did not think the horse would go. It was suggested Pike should have held Oliver Travel’s back, and while I am sure he would have loved too, I am also sure the horse just did not want to go a yard. He is good, but he can’t morph into the horse and make it’s little legs go along quicker. He copped a similar bashing for his ride on Royal Command last weekend. Some very fickle followers of our pointy nosed champion.

He reunites with Action here and it is very difficult to see this talented some of Pierro being beaten. When he finally did decide to knuckle down to the task last start, he hit the line (while being hampered between runners) incredibly hard. With that bit of fitness, the step up to 1600m and the drop back to his own age group – this race should be a walk in the Pike.

The only worry I can see is the lack of top end speed. Burning Pride will likely take up the running with Hoodlum Thunder and Lucky Roar handy. Pike may want to look at being a little less patient here and making a move from the 500-600m if they are walking out in front. Hoodlum Thunder has been incredibly unlucky all campaign and is mapped to go very close here.

What is Fred Kersley doing as a trainer? Mizlecki 1100 to 1600 when previously untried past 1200m. Yindi – 1200-1500-1200. Rogan Scent second up at 1800m. He’s killing some very talented young horses by setting them ridiculous tasks. And yes, clearly I know better than one of W.A’s premiere trainers.

One of Action or Hoodlum Thunder will be winning, but both prices are spot on. If Action gets to $2.50+ (win only) or Hoodlum Thunder $6+ (each way) then I would consider a bet on one or the other.

Selections

1 Action

2 Hoodlum Thunder

5 Paddy’s Shadow

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 3 – Kirbing Sandalwood

This appears to be a real two horse race between Sandalwood & Gomer Wipple.

Sandalwood’s last run was huge, albeit aided by a 10/10 ride from Lucy. After making My Grace the best of the day I wasn’t exactly showering Lucy with praise after this effort, but credit where credit is due. Looks the one to beat here on the strength of that victory, though Gomer Wipple’s form lines are definitely superior. His recent effort behind Oliver’s Travels coming off a month break was huge. Held up in the early stages of the straight, he hit the line better than anything else. Brodie Kirby goes on board here and he has piloted this Lookin At Lucy gelding to a victory in the past.

If Kirby can ride a 10/10 from the inside gate, I think he can knock Sandalwood off. A coin flip which at $3.40 and $2.50, I think I will stay out of. Roughead can run a race and is the standout of ‘the rest’.

Selections

1 Gomer Wipple

9 Sandalwood

8 Roughead

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 4 – Ching Ching

I reckon you’ll find Jackpot Prince wasn’t ‘meant’ to win last start. I’m not saying they didn’t want to win, I am saying I think Durrant felt he didn’t have the miles in the legs just yet. Ominous for his rivals here. $3 to $7 in betting when coming from last and getting the choccy’s. This is no harder, he should be fitter and the extra 1.5kgs shouldn’t be a major issue for a horse who will be looking at Pinjarra and Bunbury Cups in the not too distant future.

I suspect Woodsville will want to be ridden with a sit, with his two recent victories coming when this Blackfriars gelding received cover. This should leave Cruachan out in front at his first go over the 2150m. I don’t think he will stay. Persistence Time should end up in the breeze, leaving Couleur Bizarre in the 1 by 1. Couleur Bizarre is a very particular horse who needs to be ridden in an exact way. He must get the run just behind the speed (cover is imperative) and must roll from about the 600m as he can sustain a long run, but it isn’t overly sharp. Mapped to go very close here.

Friaresque’s last run was better than it reads on paper. Can upset Jackpot Prince if CJP finds trouble from the barrier. I can see Jackpot ending up 3 or 4 back on the fence. Cappo D’Oro CAN win a race like this but Dan Staeck from barrier 9 will do Dan Staeck from barrier 9 type things. No, I haven’t forgiven him for Taxadermy yet.

Selections

2 Jackpot Prince

4 Friaresque

7 Couleur Bizarre

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 5 – Pearly Patrick

Found it very difficult separating my top four selections here, so will tip purely on price and put the consistent Pearl Trade on top. Patrick Carbery owes me a few bucks after his ‘4kg apprentice moment’ on Friaresque a month ago and I think the $14 about Pearl Trade is the perfect way to apologise.

This is a very weak event. Rebellionaire is your early fixed odds favourite but has the potential to be considered a little over-hyped. He has faced Pearl Trade once in the past when Pearl Trade was clearly the better run of the two. Pearl Trade meets him 1.5kgs better here and is drawn barrier one compared to barrier ten. Boxes. Ticking.

Vital Dancer will look to spear across and lead though will have The Ninth Hour, You Am I and Bahama Mama to contend with. I still think Troy Turner should be able to cross and if the money comes for this fresh gelding, he will probably be very hard to run down.

Very Angry Gal will have the last crack at them late and the way the race may be run, could very well be the winner. Competitive, but weak event.

Selections

4 Pearl Trade

2 Vital Dancer

5 Very Angry Gal

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Pearl Trade (4).

 

Race 6 - #BackParnhamRetireLikeJohnnyFarnham

Don’t know if it is quite as catchy as #BackPikeDrinkWhatYouLike. But I think it might catch on. And for those of you who don’t get the joke (you are clearly not Australian), it is because Johnny Farnham retires often. Then makes comebacks. Then retires again. The best jokes are the ones you have to explain.

Rebel King is my best bet of the day. I feel it in my bones and I can honestly say Rebel King is a horse I have never backed before in my life. I do think Willy Pike had the option between Dainty Tess & Rebel King and I think it would have been a tough choice to hop on Tessa. We all make mistakes Willy. Rebel King has been restricted in recent campaigns and the ‘Bar Shoes Off’ was not missed. His recent trial was brilliant, and he’s drawn to track a nice speed here. Only $5 with the corporates at the moment, I am expecting we might see something closer to $7-8 on the day. So, I am going to bide my time before launching my assault.

Red Ora flew for new trainer Steve Wolfe in a dominant display in the Mungrup Sprint. The $9 early looked a bit of a mistake from our bookmaking buddies. Caipirinha will need to try and deal with 58kgs which I can’t see her doing. Battle Hero is a fresh specialist and has had his win. Dainty Tess looks the biggest danger.

Selections

7 Rebel King

8 Red Ora

2 Dainty Tess

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Rebel King (7).

 

Race 7 - $26

I don’t often like to tweet out an early price or any tips for that matter (people yell at me when I am inevitably wrong), but the $26 that Double Digit went up with every single bookie was too good not to share (once I’d got myself cut off every bowler account I have backing it). He now sits at the $9 mark with our local TAB which is a lot more accurate.

Third up at the 1400m, this does look a race which he can win. After being average first up, he improved markedly second up and Ashley Maley is a very underrated trainer. With Veuve De Vega, Baraki Beats (no), Wavehill Spur and The Big Show engaged, there should be some serious speed in this race. Expect Maddison Brown to be putting the pressure on with Wavehill Spur. It is what she does best.

I am not going to go over the top with Double Digit as Veuve De Vega does have the potential to steal this again and West Fifty Fourth and Cougar Nights are both coming off very strong victories. Both are drawn to get softer runs than Double Digit. If they are making ground out wide and the race pattern suits, Double Digit will be very hard to beat. A lot of ‘ifs’.

I am not going to back Baraki Beats. Repeat. I am NOT going to back Baraki Beats. But $26……

Selections

5 Double Digit

2 Veuve De Vega

3 Cougar Nights

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places Double Digit (5).

 

Race 8 – Will The Real Brodie Kirby, Please Stand Up

Slim Shady Gray looks a horse with enormous potential and will give Brodie Kirby a second chance at a winner on the day. He is riding enough of them in Esperance, he’s due to turn that into city form very shortly. Back to the Simon Miller yard can only be a positive, this Vital Equine gelding should go very close from gate 3.

A Knight Of Pro and Royal Missile were strong last start winners and along with Shady Gray look the ones to beat. The barrier won’t hinder Royal Missile all that much as he likely would have got back anyway, but A Knight Of Pro will need luck early to find a spot on speed. $8.50 does look a reasonable each way quote however.

A tough old race to finish the day. My advice – be in front before the last.

Selections

3 Shady Gray

10 Royal Missile

5 A Knight Of Pro

Suggested Bet – 15 wins and 15 places Shady Gray (3).

3 Comments | 6 months ago

Recent Comments

User lowza24

lowza24 03 Feb | Posts: 9

great review!

User brady

brady 03 Feb | Posts: 1182

Great Preview On the Mark

User rustyh

rustyh 03 Feb | Posts: 2135

=D> :)) <:-P =)) Ripper race write up. Cracked me up several times. =)) :-bd <:-P Funny bugger. =D> \:D/ :-bd