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Ascot Preview, 3rd March news

Ascot Preview, 3rd March

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 2 March, 2018

Race 1 – Jockey Sympathizer

I’m a renowned jockey sympathizer and most would know, I’d be the first to jump to their defence as required (this is all a lie). But, I am going to stand up for Clint Johnston-Porter and his last effort on Asserto. This Blackfriars gelding had zero interest in being in a horse race early and CJP was forced to scrub him along just to stay with the field. There was then the criticism that upon straightening he should have looked to go wide rather than find a run through the field. If you look at Cockatiel, who was in the three-wide line on the bend, he was under heavy suffrage, with the shillelagh flailing about. It did not look like he was going to get any type of cart up into the race. As it turned out he did pick up to run into a placing, but CJP couldn’t have known his. If Shaun O’Donnell is a less experienced rider, CJP pushes out underneath winner Saetta and probably wins by two with ‘the ride of the day’. As probably the best arm chair jockey I know, I would have done the same thing Ports. Got your back.

The irony of the jockey change from CJP to William Pike on Asserto here, is the style of riding the Wizard likes to employ. I could just about guarantee you that Pike would have made the exact same move and had the exact same outcome (though he may have risked a further suspension with a Dustin Martin style don’t argue) if he was on board. This does look like a very suitable race for him, but from barrier 10, down 100m in journey and with a horse who doesn’t like to pick his legs up for the first 600 metres of a race – I wouldn’t be rushing into the $1.95.

The Harrison trained pair of Emerald Rose and Sanantorio are capable, while the trials of Fairedu and Onyahead were very promising. A race I’ll stay out of.

Selections

2 Asserto
5 Emerald Rose
3 Onya Head

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 2 – Neville’s Neglect

I was slightly positive in the first race, so I am going to bring the tone of my preview back to normality with some not-so-subtle digs. Last week Neville Parnham had Wacked Out in a race with NO speed engaged. Lady Le Jean, who had not settled closer than fourth in any of her previous career starts, lead the event with our ever-observant race caller D-Mac quoting “in a new role for her”. This was Wacked Out’s role. Yes, it was a B-grade Hollywood film who nobody will remember in 3 months, but this was Wacked Out’s moment to shine. His 15 seconds of fame. Instead a lack of research from the stable results in a scratching, sighting ‘the wide gate’ (8). I’m sorry Neville, but no. This is a genuine nightmare from you. At least you’ve made a good decision to fly Steve to the other side country, so Chris can ride it on Saturday… That comment won’t go down well; I am considering deleting it – but I feel like I haven’t been controversial enough lately, so will let it ride.

Tango Ora, Saturia and even Three Secrets are very quick horses early so Wacked Out will have his work cut out for him to hold them out. It’s a shame he couldn’t find a race with less speed engaged…

How To Fly is weighted worse than a 1999 Lance Whitnall pre being sent to a fat farm. The positive for How To Fly is the fact she actually possess a reasonable amount of class. Brodie Kirby gave her a 10 out 10 ride when knocking off Tango Ora at her most recent outing, though she does meet that gelding 4kgs worse off at the weights. The old ‘weight and gate’ combo are against her here.

I am going to look a little further afield and put Misty Metal as my on top selection. I am hoping the Robert & Todd Harvey yard do their own speed maps (hopefully not borrowing one from Nev) and see that going forward would be a near impossibility. There is every chance we will see a three-wide line and if SOD can pop this Oratorio filly somewhere in that, she has the potential to finish over the top of them. At $14 she is the obvious play.

If Wacked Out wins this, I will be deleting my twitter account and going into hiding for 4 to 6 weeks.

Selections

9 Misty Metal
3 How To Fly
6 Tango Ora

Suggested Bet: 35 wins and 35 places Misty Metal (9). I would take the early quote as she has been well backed in the past.

 

Race 3 – Graceful Larrikin

Was taken by the improvement of Corporate Larrikin at his most recent effort. Was well beaten first up when unable to find the front in a hotly contested Fitzpatrick Plate, before leading at a very strong click, when only being beaten by a couple of lengths. I don’t think the handicapper has been overly kind to this Trade Fair gelding as despite only running one placing in his last 10 outings, he has only dropped 3 ratings points. Look after out Southern visitors! Tayla Stone’s allowance does help to alleviate the handicapper’s cruelty and his last two third up efforts were huge. Can win at a price.

If Corporate Larrikin doesn’t steal this, then My Grace looks to be one of the better bets of the day. Drops weight and despite rising in class, in my always humble opinion, is actually down in grade. Sandalwood and Western Temple are the only two horses to beat him this Redoute’s Choice mare at her last two outings and both would start favourite here. She looks extremely well in.

My Grace around the $3 mark and Corporate Larrikin (who I expect may get out to a bigger price on the day) are both worth a win bet here.

Selections

8 My Grace
1 Corporate Larrikin
3 Ragazzo D’Oro

Suggested Bet: 80 wins My Grace (8). 20 wins Corporate Larrikin (1).

 

Race 4 – All Class

Sandalwood’s last victory was one of a very classy gelding. This son of Rogano had equal favourite At The Ready on his back throughout, but was absolutely no match for this up and coming stayer when the big questions were asked. It was a further three lengths back to third place. With equal racing luck it is very hard to see the 1kg weight swing being enough for the tables to turn here. Sandalwood is looking like a country cups horse. Cappo D’Oro was a very strong winner 28 days ago when making a mid-race move and defeating Woodsville. There isn’t a huge amount of speed in this, so expect to see Dan Staeck bustle him out of the barriers and look to take up the running.

The rest are just a long way below class wise. Rock Giselle could improve with a better draw, but I really think it is a three-horse race, with a very strong lean toward favourite Sandalwood.

Selections

4 Sandalwood
3 At The Ready
2 Cappo D’Oro

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Sandalwood (4).

 

Race 5 – It’s Showtime

Last week’s tipping was an all-round nightmare. 4 of my suggested bets were scratched (looking at you again Nev), while Flying Roar did his best impersonation of stablemate; Baraki Beats, at the gates. Made it tough from there. To make matters worse, I gave Showcase a reasonable knock and despite not having the best of luck in the run, she won with a serious degree of ease. I’m really sorry Bob. I won’t pick on your horses ever again.

What a difference a week makes with Showcase looking like the best on the card. I’ve had to swallow my pride enough times in my life to no longer really be affected by it. Private Dancer is the only logical danger to her here, and with a different barrier draw I’d find it very hard to split them. Private Dancer needs to get out and rolling early. I would prefer she sat three deep the journey rather than had a cuddled run on the leaders back and got out on straightening. The horse can sustain a 800m run, but cannot sprint. Connections would now be fully aware of this fact and will be encouraging Chris Parnham to get off the fence at all costs. It can be easier said than done from the inside gate.

Superior Smile was scratched from a winnable midweek race and while he doesn’t have the class to win it, it is good to see Paul Harvey back riding in seriously good form. His effort on Watch Me Ney Ney midweek was some vintage Pontiff. It’s rare that Pike has his dacks around his ankles. $16 a place for his mount here is not the worst investment.

I’ve just tipped three relatively short priced commodities in a row, which is not really my go. I’d be looking at the three leg all-up at around the $22 mark (My Grace – Sandalwood – Showcase). It’s way more fun winning the first two and losing the last leg.

Selections

8 Showcase
7 Private Dancer
4 Superior Smile

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Showcase (8).

 

Race 6 – Field

As far as a quaddie leg goes, they don’t get much harder than this. The ambitious amongst us might look to stand Jeraft out, though I do see this being a potential ‘value’ leg. The problem is pinpointing that value. Jeraft’s last win was on the back of some serious support ($2.30 to $1.70) and Chris Parnham never panicked despite getting a little bit further back than he’d hoped. That field was mediocre at best. This has more depth.

Wanted Desire is the runner who interests me most. Two effortless victories when coming from near last, this Wanted mare has always had ability, but not put it all together in the past. Reminds me a little bit of Klondike Kenny who always ‘had’ the ability but until recently it didn’t all click. You tend to get some good prices about these types of runners until the general punting public start to click that they are no longer a three-legged crab. With Nelson’s Flight and Golgotha both likely to roll forward from wide draws, the pace could well be on here. If they are bunching on the bend, he should be too sharp for them.

I don’t like the apprentice going on Double Digit (though I am not going to lose a huge amount of sleep at Alan Kennedy being taken off), though the $21 compared to the $3.50 of Jeraft is too big a differential. Here is a question to any aspiring jockey (such as myself when they increase the weights substantially). If you have the back of the $1.70 favourite who is travelling nicely and going to give you the perfect cart into the race, do you get off it and look for inside runs on a horse renowned for a wind-up sprint? The answer is no Alan. I would have preferred to binge watch Married At First Sight than watch his last two efforts on Double Digit again.

Hay Magic doesn’t appear in the stewards reports for his latest effort, but should. I don’t think he ever got the chance to really wind up in a race which was run at a farcical tempo. Miracle Man’s last effort was huge, while the $31 about Thunder Boom is another you could make a case for as being considerable overs. He appeared to be bolting on his return to the track when being held up the majority of the straight.

Good luck. We’ll need it.

Selections

10 Wanted Desire
9 Miracle Man
3 Double Digit

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 7 – Each Way All Day

Hoboken was the cause of great consternation on twitter after a couple of unlucky runs this campaign. Second up behind Dutch Spy, he appeared to be the unlucky runner, before third up looking like a moral beaten at 20/1. I wasn’t jumping over the moon with this result and salt was further rubbed into the wound for this very slow learner, when he saluted at his next outing for new jockey Kate Witten. The form from that race doesn’t read all that well (Jelani Express who ran second, failed at his subsequent outing), but this race does not have a huge amount of depth. Kate Witten stays on top and this Statue Of Liberty gelding (I actually did some research and Hoboken is a city on the Hudson River in New Jersey, a fairly loose relationship with the actual Statue Of Liberty) and he carries a career low weight of 53.5kgs. He is mapped to get a gun run. From barrier 5, the four horses underneath him will all either drop out or lead – Blackline will lead from 3, Southern Tern, Massachusetts and Snitz And Giggles from 2, 4 and 1 respectively are all tardy beginners. I’ve got him on Blackline’s back, which should be the best spot to be with the low weight.

Blackline has huge upside and has the potential to be in a different postcode to the rest of these when they past the post. What worries me are the so-so trials she put in last campaign before Miller kicked her campaign off at 1300m. This is only 1100m; does Simon think she is a more of a dour type now? She carries a career high weight here with the 58kgs and at the $2.45 must be some type of risk.

Princess Zelda has the form lines which read the best. Second to Lady Le Jean & How To Fly who both subsequently won good Saturday class races. She then beat Tycoon Legend who won not long after. What followed was a very comfortable last to first victory over Deep Cover. The barrier draw has been cruel to her, but she isn’t without hope.

Very easy bet here for me. Low weight, should get the run of the race, a field lacking depth. $11 for Hoboken – each way all day.

Selections

6 Hoboken
3 Blackline
10 Princess Zelda

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Hoboken (6).

 

Race 8 – Susceptible?

Floyd is the sprinter the Gangemi’s hope will soon take over the mantle from Rock Magic as the stable star. He really came of age last campaign with a couple of very sharp victories. He does race first up without a trial, as he did last campaign, when he looked all over the winner before condition gave out late. That race was easier than this and contained less top end pressure. He has the potential to come out and win this quite comfortably or to also fold up and be calling an Ola (Uber’s are a thing of the past) at the 100m. Hard to get involved at the $2.60 without the base of a trial.

Long Knife was a long knife through my heart when winning the Fitzpatrick Plate. We tend to be in sync when the big price victory will come, but unfortunately our cycles were clearly out of whack. He won’t be winning this. I don’t know if Snow Lord is quite up to 72+ company yet after his defeat at York, though the jockey change from Maddison Brown to William Pike is like hopping in a Jaguar after driving around in an 83’ Lancer. The horse won’t know itself. Should be right on the back of the hot speed and can win the race purely from the low weight, good gate combo.

I thought Star Glitter was capable of winning again, but for the life of me I can’t figure out why Jason Brown has been booted from the horse. Mollie Clark is not the rider for this type of horse. Neville – I am available if you need a racing manager. I am serious.

Candelight Star, Yeah Dardy and Seeker are all winning hopes. I’m going to put Floyd on top, but I don’t think he’s a knockout chance.

Selections

7 Floyd
10 Seeker
13 Snow Lord

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

43 Comments | 2 months ago

Recent Comments

User hash

hash 04 Mar | Posts: 5678

Hoboken would have bought me a new car................a cheap one but still new  :( do you think having a senior rider on (not a 3kg claimer) the horse would have won without that uninterrupted run it got in the straight and yes I know she won on...

User Rodent

Rodent 03 Mar | Posts: 4147

Jesus can't win at York and beats Floyd. Please Maddison Brown > W.Pike may have been significant.

User Rodent

Rodent 03 Mar | Posts: 4147

Hoboken would have bought me a new car................a cheap one but still new  :(

User SKIDS

SKIDS 03 Mar | Posts: 494

Was going to be a day in the red for me.... just finished a run and looked at the last in ShaTin.... Turin RedSTAR @ $4.20, That'll do me. Bam, it ends the day a tad in the black. B-)

User H-BOMBER

H-BOMBER 03 Mar | Posts: 6275

Jesus can't win at York and beats Floyd. Please

User Jell

Jell 03 Mar | Posts: 708

Mr Motown for me in the last. Good each way price for something I'm assuming will lead. Trial behind rebel king good I think Long Knife will lead and Mr Motown midfield with cover but Iím on each way too.

User H-BOMBER

H-BOMBER 03 Mar | Posts: 6275

Mr Motown for me in the last. Good each way price for something I'm assuming will lead. Trial behind rebel king good

User hash

hash 03 Mar | Posts: 5678

trust you to correct me on that  :))

User Tivers

Tivers 03 Mar | Posts: 6439

Well done Hash that's amazing. Especially if I'm correct in thinking what six figures is. Have never had to work it out before. Had another number in the head and thought that's a great collect, then gees that's just five figures. When a bet like that come...

User SKIDS

SKIDS 03 Mar | Posts: 494

Chris P pulled Pikeys pants down there. One day Iíll back the right horse in a two horse race. Showcase a certainty beaten there, got 2 bad checks... absolutely flew the last 100m.