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Ascot Preview, 3rd November news

Ascot Preview, 3rd November

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Thu 1 November, 2018

Race 1 - Snip Snip

Tinsnip looks extremely well placed to turn the tables on Prim And Proper in the first at Ascot. Was arguably a good thing beaten second up when Pike had some minor traffic issues early in the straight. From the good draw, with the 2kg weight swing and the added 100m, she should take some beating.

The unraced pair of Specialism and Tajmali who both looked sharp in 400m trial victories, could provide the biggest threat in a typical race of juvenile unknowns.

At around the $2.5-3 mark, happy having a small win bet on Pike to ride the first of his five winners for the day.

Selections

2 Tinsnip
1 Prim And Proper
8 Specialism

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Tinsnip (2).

 

Race 2 - Magic Stone

Tayla Stone is really getting horses to run for her at the moment. The Big Show and Five Degrees are prime examples in the last week, who have not had the best of runs in transit but a lack of panic and very clean hands, has seen Tayla get the job done. Happy with her appointment on the Adam Durrant trained Magic Planet and she shouldn’t have too many issues in transit from the good gate.

After a strong two year old campaign, this Planet Five gelding was disappointing in a trial and two subsequent starts, before stepping up to the very hot Bunbury Classic and running an absolute bolter. Was off heels over the last 50m which cost him being a length closer, but I have no doubt he was travelling just as well as Lady Cosmology, Valour Road and Agent Pippa on the line. That form is far superior to anything in this event. The Neville Parnham trained pair of Wakan Tanka and Lord Greystoke should roll forward and set a reasonable tempo and Tayla should be able to have Wakan Tanka’s back. I’d suggest it’ll give a bigger kick than Lord Greystoke, allowing Stone to roll (no pun intended) off his back at some point in the straight.

Festival Miss was a nice run midweek against the smart Ninth Hour, though that galloper was forced to circle the field with 59kg’s. The rest of that field was ordinary. Deacalda was a soft maiden winner and I suspect there will be support again, but the barrier draw is a little sticky. May have to go back with Festival Miss.

The $7 on offer for Magic Planet looks like good shopping on the proven form lines. Could consider going each way, but unfortunately it is only a seven horse field. Each to their own.

Selections

1 Magic Planet
3 Festival Miss
6 Deacalda

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Magic Planet (1).

 

Race 3 - Now You Seannie, Now You Don’t

Bit of work to be done on the race name, but you get the drift. For the mere paper and replay punter this race involves too much guess work to have any type of real confidence about. Simon Miller has talked about Olivers Travels being in great order and the Railway still in his sights, while Seannie was one of the more exciting two year old’s to come out of Perth.

I’m happy speculating on Seannie. Her run at Moonee Valley earlier this year when coming from last at the 200m at Moonee Valley was huge. It was only a benchmark 70, but she proved that to be no fluke with a third in a group three at her following start. If she is right, she could absolutely brain these with 54.5kgs.

I’m going to have my old mate Candlelight Star in for second. Was happy having him on top if Seannie wasn’t in this event. I really feel like he didn’t find the right race last campaign. Recent run at Geraldton under the inexperienced Jessica Gray, was better than it looks on paper and this is a serious race horse. A small field with not a huge amount of top end speed looks perfect for Chris Parnham to unleash a pre-bend move. A quirky, but highly underrated galloper.

The Celt will finally get a race he can dictate from the front, though I do wonder exactly how well he is going now. The 59.5kg’s is a real leveller. Masquerade is your $1.70 favourite and is the one who gets the right run here, but I don’t think she is up to a few of these at their best. I’ve still got 5 winners for Pike, but this isn’t one of them.

We’ll suggest a win bet on Seannie ($5.5) and Candlelight Star ($18) in the small field.

Selections

6 Seannie
3 Candlelight Star
2 The Celt

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Seannie (6). 25 wins Candlelight Star (3).

 

Race 4 - R & R

The only thing better than a bit of R & R is the return of P & P. I have a stack of time for this Brock Lewthwaite trained mare and her recent trial was soft. She was wide and hard held when defeating a pretty smart bunch of gallopers who were all trying a little bit harder than she was.

The jockey appointment gives me some cause for concern, and while I commend (what I presume is) the loyalty to the blokes doing the work, this can be a once in a lifetime horse for a trainer with a smaller operation and I am surprised a Pateman, Parnham or Noske haven’t been booked for the mount. Julien Kokotajlo is more than capable however and all he needs to do is sit on and find some racing room in the straight to win this. Really exciting animal.

Sally’s Realm was good first up and appears the main danger. The step up to 1200m and the inside draw are both in her favour and if the favourite finds any bother in the straight, she will be the one coming hard late.

You can just about throw a blanket over the rest of the field.

Really happy with the $2.50 Pearls And Prawns. Easily the best bet of the day at that quote.

Selections

7 Pearls And Prawns
13 Sally’s Realm
3 Flower Of Scotland

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Pearls And Prawns (7).

 

Race 5 - Pike’s Command

Seeing as I’ve tipped Pike for the five winners and he only has the one to race five, it is fair to say you can stop reading from here as the rest is fairly predictable. I have an all cerise and white quaddie.

Royal Command is a very close second best of the day to Pearls And Prawns. Was scratched last week with a minor ailment, though I would suggest the clash with Arcadia Queen would have played a fairly key role in that withdrawal. Besides Platoon, this is a very midweek field and Platoon has drawn the widest gate. It’s going to be awfully hard from out there. I’d suspect Pike finds a spot in the first half of the field while Steve Parnham is forced back to near last. All things being equal I would still have Royal Command as the superior of the two gallopers. Just needs to find some cover and should be too strong late.

With not a huge amount of value to come, I do think there can be some found with frontrunning gelding Forseen. Back to his specialty trip and away from Belmont where he has a worse record than Jack Darling in grand finals, he should comfortably find the top in a race devoid of any natural speed. Two starts ago he ran third to Arcadia Prince at $101. While I highly doubt he has the class as a nine year old to win this, you can shop upwards of $10 a place.

Royal Command win at around $2.50 (multi into Pearls And Prawns is upwards of $5.50) with a small bet on the Forseen place.

Selections

5 Royal Command
10 Forseen
11 Platoon

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Royal Command (5). 20 places Forseen (10).

 

Race 6 - Short But Sweet

Galaxy Star should confirm his spot in the Railway and race favouritism (unless something is coming from over East I am unaware of) with victory in a very thin edition of the Asian Beau Stakes. The blinkers go on, which looks like the right move for it’s final hit out before the Railway and he really should be too strong for this lot. A win here will lift his rating to around 97/98 which still means he will get into the Railway on the minimum. Awfully hard to beat over the mile on the minimum, no matter what comes across.

Action is clearly the main danger and I have a nagging feeling it might go a lot closer than I initially anticipated. Was huge first up, aided by a perfect Jarrad Noske ride and the smaller field should suit in enabling Chris Parnham to keep him within cooee of the leaders. Like his stablemate, can reel off some blistering final splits.

Won’t be hopping into Galaxy Star at the $1.38, but the $8 or so on offer for the Railway Stakes, may well be the best price you’ll see if the blinkers sharpen him up as expected. A futures bet could be the play here.

Selections

3 Galaxy Star
5 Action
1 DIsposition

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 7 - Parnham v Pike

Usually with WFA events, you feel relatively confident backing the horses suited under the conditions of the race, rather than the handicap conditions. The problem here is, the major lead up to this event was a set weights and penalties race. So while a mare like Celebrity Dream is rated a lowly 88, compared to Dainty Tess’ 105, she meets her at the exact same weights under the conditions for both events.

Always a little risky plumping for sit and sprinter horses over the 1000m journey, but I do think this looks a race between the two aforementioned sprinters in Dainty Tess and Celebrity Dream. Nearly identical runs in the recent Crawford Stakes, Celebrity Dream didn’t get clear galloping room until Dainty Tess had levelled up at the 150m mark and by that stage, had the momentum. Dainty is the proven runner at this level of those two, but that run coupled with the appointment of William Pike cannot be ignored.

Chris Gangemi has a really strong hand here with Super Maxi likely to lead this with Saracino attempting to work to his outside, though he may need to be content with a sit when the lightly weighted three year old, Agent Pippa spears across. My worry here is the stable having as many on speed runners engaged as they do, may alter their tactics slightly. Super Maxi may allow Saracino to cross, it’ll be interesting to see how the race pans out.

Saracino is comfortably the lay of the day. Trial form does not equate to race form and while the 55.17 under minimal riding from heavy weight jockey Jarrad Noske is super impressive, I still remember backing a horse called Bank On Buzz at Pinjarra after a 55.03 trial victory. It didn’t go very well. Add to this, Saracino didn’t exactly ping the gates in that trial and was forced to muster to find the rail in front of middle distance horse Gatting. His last win was in New Zealand in early 2017. I have a strong opinion of the quality of WA sprinters and his recent efforts in Melbourne don’t stack up. In saying all of that, if anyone can get a tried horse to go to another level, it is the Gangemi’s.

It’ll be interesting to see how Agent Pippa goes against the older horses. I really like the placement by the Pearce’s and I am quite surprised that Simon Miller didn’t opt for a similar path with Valour Road en route to the Winterbottom.

Unless Celebrity Dream reaches $6+, I think I will sit this one out as a betting medium.

Selections

9 Celebrity Dream
7 Dainty Tess
1 Durendal

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 8 - One Mississippi

Have narrowed this down to the two runners down the bottom of the page, and ended up landing on Mississippi Delta. Was absolutely no hope first up when they absolutely walked behind Rockon Tommy. Ran a sharp final 200m, but it was an impossibility to catch them from where she got to. From the good gate should settle in the first six and if the pace is slack again, I would not be surprised to see William Pike make a move from the 600m. She has proven she can handle a sustained sprint, especially on the minimum weight.

Ragazzo D’Oro was one I thought might get past a few people, but clearly I was wrong with the astute snapping up the $17s in the early market. Has had minimal luck at his two first up runs and the rise to 1600m third up looks the perfect assignment. Is a better horse when ridden more aggressively and in a race devoid of a huge amount of speed outside Rockon Tommy, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Azzopardi try to kick him out of the gates and find the outside of that galloper. Pushed Western Temple last campaign when ridden in this manner.

Rockon Tommy, Red Publisher, A Knight Of Pro, Bold Success, Reveille and Just Like Fire are all more than capable of giving a race like this a shake - highly competitive affair to finish the day. Still very keen on Mississippi Delta to be too strong late and the $5 looks a more than fair quote.

Selections

10 Mississippi Delta
11 Ragazzo D’Oro
2 Rockon Tommy

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Mississippi Delta (10).
 

33 Comments | 1 week ago

Recent Comments

User curmudgeon

curmudgeon 04 Nov | Posts: 961

It's Lord Greystoke not Lord Greystroke. Lord Greystroke would be a name for a geriatric porn star. Lord Greystroke bowed out with a prostrate problem.....too much of Tarzan's Grip was the diagnosis :D

User LETSDOTHIS

LETSDOTHIS 04 Nov | Posts: 10

Love these previews every week, thanks for all your hard work Terry. Any chance we could get a Melbourne Cup day one??

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 03 Nov | Posts: 6614

Very good tipping and summation of races by the Ascot Preview gentleman...was close to the mark all day..plus had eachway chances in Seanie and Mississippi Delta both on top.

User Rodent

Rodent 03 Nov | Posts: 4297

It's Lord Greystoke not Lord Greystroke. Lord Greystroke would be a name for a geriatric porn star.

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 03 Nov | Posts: 6614

Talking of names like the interestingly Lord Greystroke ( good one Bomber ), we have a terrific race named the "Burgess Queen"...in another decade there might be another feature race named after another mare...the "Dainty Tess" . She's developed a record full...

User paraletic

paraletic 03 Nov | Posts: 2855

I keep on forgetting to put my tips in on this comp lol

User Gilgamesh

Gilgamesh 03 Nov | Posts: 2628

I won the tip star comp this week all thanks to Lord Greystroke and his lack of testes $500 cheque AND $500 Crown voucher! Absolute ripping prize! Where do we find this comp?

User H-BOMBER

H-BOMBER 03 Nov | Posts: 6520

I won the tip star comp this week all thanks to Lord Greystroke and his lack of testes $500 cheque AND $500 Crown voucher! Absolute ripping prize!

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 03 Nov | Posts: 6614

At least one out of Willy Pike and Chris Parnham were in the top three placegetters every race today. They dominated. Full credit to Parnham too...he may not have the favoured rides of Pikey but he's every inch in the same class.

User Jell

Jell 03 Nov | Posts: 771

Dainty Tess again, what else is there to say about her. Just keeps on performing.Super Maxi going toe to toe with Agent Pippa at the start didn't help. I thought she would lead easily.