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Ascot Preview, 5th May news

Ascot Preview, 5th May

Perth Turf Talk | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 4 May, 2018

Race 1 – Vaughn’s Missile

Last week I used the terms ‘cracking’, ‘ripper’ and ‘brilliant’ to describe the Ascot card ahead of us. This time round, I’ve looked up the antonyms for these three words to help describe this week’s card. ‘Inept’, ‘brilliant’ and ‘unintelligent’ is what came up. The last doesn’t make a great deal of sense, but you get my drift.

Luckily there are a few quality animals in Galaxy Star and Arcadia Prince returning, but the overall field quality and betting propositions are limited. It is a rarity I will miss an Ascot card, but I have instead opted to sit in the ‘Ilija Grgic’ pocket (yet to be officially named) at Optus Stadium and watch the budgies knock off the Power.

Missile Launch v Broker. Must give Missile Launch the edge as we want to keep describing him as ‘the next big thing of WA racing’ and a loss in two consecutive restricted races would mean an end to that. Broker will by no means be a walkover for the big fellow, but the extra race fitness after a tough first up effort, should get him over the line.

Stevey Parnham should use his newfound confidence and take Discoville straight to the front and perhaps look to steal it from the 600m. ‘Ride it hard Stevey’. Very good race call for those who missed Discoville’s win a fortnight ago.

Selections

1 Missile Launch
2 Broker
4 Discoville

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Missile Launch (1).
 

Race 2 – Black Saturday

Another race with a dearth of entrants and even less chances. Super Stardom, Black Sabbath and Market Ruler look the only genuine winning hopes in this event and the market ($4, $1.9, $2.6) hasn’t missed that fact.

Super Stardom showed she could both take a sit or lead, which is a very handy trait to have for a youngster. From barrier 3, the inform Steve Parnham will have options aplenty on this War Chant filly. Black Sabbath’s debut was delayed due to an illness, which must be the cause of some concern, but his trials are hard to ignore. If the issue was more of a physical injury, the setback would be more concerning, but I’m sure Robert & Todd Harvey have given him plenty of vicks, and he is over his cold. The small field should suit.

Simon Miller’s, Market Ruler rounds out the final of the three chances and I really hope that if anybody plans on being in the exact spot that he wants his filly to be, then they publicly announce it with a sky writer over Ascot on Saturday. How dare they lead a race he wanted to lead in.

Selections

3 Black Sabbath
1 Super Stardom
5 Market Ruler

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

Race 3 – Seven Chances

Only seven to do battle her and despite the small field the speed map doesn’t look entirely obvious for this 1500m event. Captivated Point has drawn the widest of the seven runners and you would expect to see him look to spear across and lead. Just underneath him is Harry Thomas who had a change of riding tactics when ridden cold at his most recent outing. It was a nice effort, though I do think his best chance will come from rolling forward. He may be able to hold the front from Captivated Point if they go down that path. Fathnoxious and Golgotha are both horses who have done their best racing out in front, so it would be no surprise to see those two camps show aggression early.

Delicate Miss is the interesting runner here. If somebody told this 1000m specialist (because horses can obviously understand everything we say) at the start of her campaign that it would stretch out to 1500m, I reckon she would have felt like she’d done 12 rounds with Aussie Joe Bugner. To David Harrison’s credit, despite several luckless runs over 1200m, he seems to have had a plan this campaign and continues to progress with it. She arguably was a good thing beaten a fortnight ago. The appointment of Joe Azzopardi is a positive one, though it does appear Paul Harvey opted for the stablemate. Either that, or the connections decided that 6 ‘hard luck stories’ is enough for one campaign.

Minus Looks is the class animal and I think the Wolfe yard may have missed a trick by not holding him back for the Belmont season. This will be his fifth run at Ascot this campaign, a track he doesn’t have a flattering record at. I’ve got about as much confidence as I would in an aerated condom, but I am going to put him on top from the inside alley. Should get a soft run.

Selections

4 Minus Looks
2 Delicate Miss
1 Harry Thomas

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

Race 4 – Always Bet On Red

If there is a horse deserving of a victory it is the Chris Gangemi, Forty Four Red. A campaign which may not look completely luckless, has been exactly that. Let’s go back in time.

Both his third and fourth last starts (11/3/18 & 28/3/18) he encountered races with huge top end speed and after two mediocre beginnings was forced to work at both ends of the race. To finish as close as he did on both occasions, was a huge effort. His two most recent outings were both run at Ascot midweek, on tracks (which quite amazingly) have suited sit and sprint horses. His effort behind the very smart Seaside Serenade becomes even more meritorious when you consider the fact Atacama Sky did not give him a moments peace. His most recent outing he carried the 60kgs, dropped off Lorentinio on the bend before the smart Midnight Sky (coming down the best part of the track) grabbed him late. With the toughness he has been racing with, I don’t see the mile as anything but a positive and he is the only go forward horse this event. I expect Bold Victory to come across and sit on his outside and he will have no issues leaving him standing around the bend.

Rose’s Shadow has opened your fixed odds favourite at $3.20, which looks based on the last to first victory on that same ‘off-pace’ track. William Pike takes the mount and he should get the run of the race, but I have the Midnight Sky & Seaside Serenade form in a different ball park to the class 1 Yeah Bravo form.

Danefin is $3.90 in the market, while Take It Like A Man is $14. There last runs were nearly identical and Take It Like A Man has drawn far better of the two. So, this could be considered some type of value.

Really confident Forty Four Red is the class horse in this and he’s comfortably my best bet of the day at around the $4.60 mark.

Selections

3 Forty Four Red
6 Take It Like A Man
1 Danefin

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Forty Four Red (3).
 

Race 5 – Guesswork

The first leg of the quaddie is one of those annoying small fields where you still need to take half of them, despite them all being under $5. Value gone.

The winner in this event should come from the top five, but through a thorough process of elimination I think I can narrow it down to three winning hopes. And probably manage to miss either leg of the quinella.

Debellatio trialled well enough for his return, though the 61kgs and appointment of Tayla Stone may not be in this son of Smart Missile’s favour. He will be looking to take a sit from his gate which isn’t always Tayla’s strength. In saying that, he hasn’t met an overly tough field here and given his class, it would be no surprise to see him finishing over the top of them. Salubrious gives me the ‘winning feel’ here after transferring to the yard of Adam Durrant. Brodie Kirby is booked to ride, and he has often been an underrated young sprinter. We’ve seen many a horse with a lot less natural ability improve out of sight when Adam has taken them on, so one who already possesses his fair share of ability could explode under the party boy. Betting should tell a story.

Masquerade trialled nicely, and you know Pike will give him every hope from barrier 1, will probably have Salubrious’ back. I’m happy taking on Rockon Tommy after a disappointing effort (albeit in a stronger form race). He did pull a little, though was entitled to do more late in that race. It’d be a nice training effort from Bill Doughty to get him up for this. Finally French is the other, who was entitled to do what he did at both starts to date. Despite coming from last over the 1000m in his most recent effort, this was the best part of the track to be on the day and the form around him hasn’t stood up.

Selections

2 Salubrious
3 Masquerade
1 Debellatio

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

Race 6 – Another Star

I was probably a touch harsh on Enticing Star’s win last week considering it was over a very unsuitable 1000m. I was just in shock she could be presented that type of run (when the rail was already the place to be) over the 1000m journey. Sometimes Pike rides very well, sometimes a few of our other members of the jockey fraternity make Pike look very good.

Like Enticing Star, Galaxy Star is unsuited over the 1100m, but she does look a genuine Galactic Star. Her only loss was when Fathnoxious stole the race and she was left behind a wall of slow horses.

There is the risk that a horse like Three Votes could jump and run and ‘steal’ this, but with the 59kgs, step up to 1100m (he’s never won past 1000m) and gap between runs, there are too many negatives for this Gangemi galloper. I think the other of the Gangemi duo – Jingtang is also perhaps training off after a fruitful campaign.

Mr Motown is going better than his $20 price tag suggests, while Mark ‘Bomber’ Thompson’s favourite horse, Snow Lord, is always a chance from a reasonable gate over the sprint journey. It’s all about Galaxy Star for me and the $2 on offer is enough to get interested.

Selections

6 Galaxy Star
2 Mr Motown
3 Snow Lord

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Galaxy Star (6).
 

Race 7 – Youth Over Experience

Necklet and Arcadia Prince looks the second best quinella of the day after Broker and Missile Launch in the first.

It is hard to split the two youngsters with Arcadia Prince being a narrow victor in their only meeting to date. Since then, it is fair to suggest that Necklet has gone on to another level, while Arcadia Prince is first up here. His trial was brilliant.

Expecting Necklet to be ridden aggressively to sit on the outside of Sir Snugalot, who will probably run them along at a good clip. From barrier 3, Arcadia Prince should race handy, but with relatively speedy customers Hoboken & Greco drawn inside of him, it is highly likely he ends up back in 6th or 7th. I am not sure how much of a head start he can afford to give the race fit Necklet, but I am still going to put him on top with the Wizard on board.

Selections

8 Arcadia Prince
3 Necklet
2 Enchanted Dream

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

Race 8 – Ready Or Not

Mississippi Delta headlines a competitive final event for the day. While her recent wins have been impressive, she is yet to face a field anywhere near this quality and the recent Musical Art form line is looking less impressive after his midweek defeat. Nonetheless, you can only beat what is in front of you and she has done so with a degree of arrogance.

I am happy looking elsewhere however and will tip a Durrant-Kirby double with At The Ready on top. All his efforts this campaign have been full of merit and Durrant tends to have the ability to keep his stayers up for a good deal of time. I am sure he would love to be more economical over the first 50m of a race and utilise a good barrier draw, but it is more than likely we will see him making his run with Mississippi Delta and Push The Petal late. I think he can outsprint that pair.

Master Magician looks well in, until you see those four dreaded bar shoes popped on the hoofs (I had to google if this was hoofs or hooves and Mr. Google isn’t giving me a clear answer, so don’t pick on my spelling). Hard to have with hoof issues on a 35-day break over the journey.

Selections

1 At The Ready
7 Mississippi Delta
5 Press The Petal

Suggested Bet: 50 wins At The Ready (1). 

10 Comments | 2 weeks ago

Recent Comments

User paraletic

paraletic 05 May | Posts: 2636

I'm A Bluebagger certainly gave me a run for my money. Some b@stard shot him from the stands at the turn though ;)) hahaaha at the 1000 i thought u might have been onto something but he stopped pretty quick. Snipers everywhere!

User Jell

Jell 05 May | Posts: 708

I'm A Bluebagger certainly gave me a run for my money. Some b@stard shot him from the stands at the turn though ;))

User Jell

Jell 05 May | Posts: 708

Young Tayla certainly gets bragging rights against Pike after holding out both those odds on mounts for a double.

User Jell

Jell 05 May | Posts: 708

I was going to have a few bucks each way on I'm A Bluebagger in the WA Cup before he was scratched.I think he's worth a few bucks in the last at big odds. Running around in some decent grade staying races in SA and not doing too bad.

User Thunderstruck

Thunderstruck 05 May | Posts: 1608

Very nice win there by Black Sabbath.

User Chris

Chris 05 May | Posts: 3648

Iím feeling Galactic Star and Salubrious too, both have been good to me

User Chris

Chris 05 May | Posts: 3648

this guy is a gem..is he is so humorous in real life?.. :-bd No

User SLIPPERGOLDEN

SLIPPERGOLDEN 04 May | Posts: 4998

The first 6 races are greyhound race fields with three odds on favourites and three short priced favourites and the last two events have a Peter's odds on and near enough odds on favourite. A thrilling day of racing.  I-)This has to be one of the wor...

User piker

piker 04 May | Posts: 133

Ok. You have the Number 1 best tipsters thoughts.Now you will have the best No 1 Mug Punter's thoughts!R1/ I still cannot understand how Broker did not beat Prize Catch last tie (even though I was on Prize Catch!) . So I have to go with Broker as the valu in t...

User thefalcon

thefalcon 04 May | Posts: 14965

this guy is a gem..is he is so humorous in real life?.. :-bd