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Ascot Preview, 7th April news

Ascot Preview, 7th April

Perth Turf Talk | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 6 April, 2018

Race 1 – Stevie Wonder

24 degrees and slightly overcast – perfect racing conditions for those with red hair and fair complexions. It’d be fair to say that this first event of the day, I am going in completely blind. I’d make Stevie Wonder look like he has 20/20 vision.

With 13 runners to do battle, I think a lot of the connections would have had similar thoughts in trying to pinch a $70,000 race the week before the major 2-year-old event of the season. Unfortunately, it appears a lot of the smarties had the same idea. Simon Miller, David Harrison, Steve Wolfe, Adam Durrant, Chris Gangemi all saddle up runners who appear to have some type of future. It really is a race where betting will tell a story.

Did like the runs of Vena Schnitzel in her first campaign behind Assetro and Ngawi and race experience can at times be highly underrated. We’ll put her on top with minimal confidence.

Selections

6 Vena Schnitzel
8 Maschino Miss
12 Friday Fillies

Suggested Bet: No bet.



Race 2 – King Of The Castle

The absence of William Pike, Chris Parnham & Brodie Kirby has left our mate Andrew as the King of the Castle. After picking up the prized ride on Western Temple, he will also pilot Jingtang in the third event of the day.

Western Temple should just about be unbeaten this campaign, though when you see a horse with 9 seconds from 18 starts, you do start to wonder if it is ‘that type of horse’. I was almost going to compare him with Street Bandit, but that’d be a bit harsh on the now retired superstar of Oz Racing.

I wasn’t sold on Western Temple’s last win, when getting every conceivable chance and only just sneaking past Ragazzo D’Oro, with the moderately performed Elegant Blast arguably putting in a better run in third. With the switch from Pike to Castle and the $1.70 quote, I am happy taking him on. The loss of Pike cannot be understated.

Speed map wise, this race looks easy to dissect. Corporate Larrikin is quick and will cross Keeper’s Son, who will take a sit. Straight away I am happy ruling a line through Keeper’s Son – his strength is his rock-hard fitness and I don’t believe he will win races taking sits. My Greek Boy should work up and sit on the outside of Corporate Larrikin. Western Temple will probably end up three back the fence on Keeper’s Son’s back. If Corporate Larrikin opens them up, as expected, there should be ample room for Castle to push out, or even wait for Keeper’s Son to push out and take the inside run. But from three back the pegs with the not-so reliable jockey, bad things do happen. You’d be braver than me hopping in at the red numbers.

I don’t think the rest will handle the tempo of this affair.

If there is a horse who has been treated poorly by the handicapper, it is Corporate Larrikin. In his last 13 starts he has had 1 second and 1 third placing. Yet he has only dropped 4 ratings points. Clearly not looking after our Great Southern guest. Despite the mean handicapper I am going to tip him on top here. I think the advantage of the inside over My Greek Boy, who will be doing the bullocking word in the breeze will be telling and Tayla Stone is a genius with jump and run horses. Looks a nice each way bet dropping out of listed company where Wrinkly has given him no peace.

Selections

1 Corporate Larrikin
2 Western Temple
3 My Greek Boy

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 placings Corporate Larrikin (1).



Race 3 – Adam Yze

I’m in a mood to take on Andrew Castle. Jingtang looks by far and away the best horse in this race, though with the amount of speed engaged in this event, the slightly sticky draw (7) and the weight impost, I can see things going wrong.

I’m not quite as excited as the time I saw Adam Yze at a BP in Melbourne, but I am excited about the chances of Secret Assault. Not a horse I thought I would EVER be tipping on a Saturday, but if you take away Jingtang, this field is very mediocre. Secret Assault has not been overly well placed this campaign, but a third in a 72+ (only behind Yeah Dardy & Gee Boss) and a second to Supposition in a strongly run affair two starts ago, suggest this tough Kevin Buswell gelding could pinch a race like this. He was jagged back to last at his most recent outing before coming out 6 and 7 deep on straightening under minimal riding from Paul Harvey. He isn’t the type of horse who is going to run a slashing final sectional. I really like the appointment of CJP for a horse who has predominantly been ridden by claiming female apprentices. I expect this move alone will find this So Secret gelding a few lengths. If Chesten Flyer and My Demi are $3 & $5 respectively, then the $31 for Secret Assault is a very nice quote. You only have to go back through the My Laina form-lines (beat My Demi, well beaten by Secret Assault in consecutive starts) to see that this is not an impossibility.

Throw enough darts, one will hit…

Selections

4 Secret Assault
1 Jingtang
8 Chesten Flyer

Suggested Bet: 25 wins and 25 places Secret Assault (4).



Race 4 – Ms. Consistency

Shaun O’Donnell is another recipient of the jockey absentees, picking up the plum ride on tough mare, Dainty Tess. The set weights and penalties of this event absolutely throw Dainty Tess in here and you’d suggest only bad luck beats her. Royal Missile carries 2.5kg’s less than her, though if this were to be run under handicap conditions it would be a 7kg swing. And that is after accounting for Royal Missile copping 5 ratings points for a second to Battle Hero.

Royal Missile looks a clear second elect, though with a lack of speed in the event it will be interesting to see what Aaron Mitchell does from gate 8. I suggest she will be ridden cold. Bushfire Blonde should get a soft lead, while Sweet Ora should hold her back. If funny things were to happen in this race, the complete blowout horse who is continually way over the odds is Fancy Fox. She has had 5 runs in listed mares company for two placings and a fourth and has a victory at $30 over Quilista. At $41 and nearly $8 a place with most companies, she is the one who represents value for those who aren’t to keen at hopping into the $1.80 for Dainty Tess.

Selections

1 Dainty Tess
3 Royal Missile
5 Fancy Fox

Suggested Bet: No bet.



Race 5 – Show Me The Honey

This race does look setup for 1200m specialist Show Honey. While losing the services of William Pike she does gain arguably Perth’s #2 (this should cause some debate) in CJP. From barrier 2 she should get a soft run throughout and will only require some luck on straightening to be in the finish.

I am not convinced Blackline is as good as everybody thinks (a lot of us still remember the 9-length maiden win and the promise of the next superstar of WA racing), though this is definitely a winnable race for Simon Miller’s mare. Minus Looks is racing well but quite amazingly draws the outside gate for the third consecutive race. The odds of this happening are 1296/1. Similar odds to me tuning in to the next season of Married At First Sight. I suspect Shooter will look to roll forward and sit outside Salubrious or even take up the running. It might be worth waiting for the track change for this Belmont specialist.

I’ve knocked the Castle over a few times this preview, but I do think his mount Delicate Miss provides some value here. I don’t think the 1200m record of 8 starts for 0 placings is a true reflection of this My Atacanta mare’s ability as she has run some slashing races over the journey. The Harrison stable are clearly trying to get this mare to settle (or trying to knock off ratings points when they drop her down to her pet 1000m journey) and run home. I think with the change of jockey and less exposed speed in this, she may be ridden a little more aggressively. She only gets a quick yelp in the steward’s report at her most recent outing for ‘pulling hard through the early stages’, but I think you will find the report should be a touch longer. There was a gap for either Harvey or Lucy to take on straightening and Harvey let Lucy have it. He never got stuck into the mare and sat up on her late when she hit the line really well. With her record I don’t expect any support for her, but she is definitely a winning hope, with a ride closer to the speed. The value.

Selections

9 Show Honey
3 Delicate Miss
6 Minus Looks

Suggested Bet: 15 wins and 15 places Delicate Miss (3).



Race 6 – Showcase Shut

Happy narrowing down the second of the feature races to two main chances.

I expect Abdicator to be ridden aggressively by Dan Staeck to hold the front, with Three Secrets looking to cross and sit on his outside. The fly in the ointment could be the Adam Durrant trained Miracle Man who did excel when racing without cover in the listed Piper Stakes. They would have to consider similar tactics here with a clean get away (which is no certainty).

Purely on Abdicator’s run v Showcase two starts ago where Showcase beat him home despite some traffic issues, you would expect Showcase to get the upper hand. Especially considering the 2kg weight swing and positive barrier. I do however wonder if Showcase may have had enough this campaign. She clearly didn’t see out the 2200m of the Natasha Stakes, though there is a difference between not seeing a journey out and looking beaten. She was gone a long way from home. Keep in mind last time I knocked Showcase she won first up at a healthy price. Might be time to jump on again.

Three Secrets steps up in distance though has made sustained runs at both starts to date. Stepped up to the 1500m last campaign (from the 1200m) when defeating Roganella (who won his next start by 3 lengths) and Showcase. I think he will be fit enough. Happy calling it a two-horse race and having a small play on the value – Three Secrets at around the $4.50 mark.

Selections

3 Three Secrets
1 Abdicator
9 Love Always

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Three Secrets (3).



Race 7 – Demolition Derby

Absolutely labelled Media Baron last start at the $10 quote when he’d consider himself a touch stiff in running third. May very well encounter the same problems here after drawing barrier 10 and will likely be requiring the cart-up which was non-existent at his most recent outing. To me, looks to have Derby horse written all over, but oddly David Harrison has not nominated him. I am unsure if this is an oversight, but I doubt they’d give up an opportunity of being a live chance in a $500,000 race. On that note, Friar Fox has also been removed from the Derby. Likely to start $2 in the Oaks, I can understand the desire to look after the horse, but surely you make the call after the race. If she pulls up a treat, would you really say no to winning half a million in prize money in the space of 8 days?

Action has had a funny campaign with some minor niggles and comes into this off a 28 day break. William Pike’s suspension, see’s Pat Carbery don the cerise and white, though I don’t think Pat is the right jockey for a horse who really needs to be woken up a long way from home. Happy taking him on.

Money Maher broke through with the bar shoe on last start and it will be interesting to see if there is more in the tank now that has been removed. Still $14 in the WA Derby market with some agencies, despite being favourite in this race (which is basically going to be the Derby field). The bet here is probably to take the futures price and cheer for a good run in this.

Tellem We’re Comin is the one a lot of punters will be hoping to see excel here on his way to the Derby after $21 - $41 was left up with most corporates for a few hours after his dominant win on Good Friday. He is favourite in most of the all-in Derby markets now. Sentimental Friend will improve with a better ride. A really interesting lead up to the Derby.

Selections

5 Tellem We’re Comin
6 Media Baron
1 Money Maher

Suggested Bet: No bet.



Race 8 – #TeamNeville

The final event of the day see’s the most even betting medium. Scottish Trader is an early scratching which will impact the speed map here, with Rogan Scent now likely to cross and sit outside Captivated Point. I suspect there will be strong money around for this Fred Kersley trained mare, but I really don’t think she is suited to racing without cover, so I am happy looking elsewhere.

I tipped Grey Enigma two starts ago when Jason Brown was more worried about holding William Pike’s mount in a pocket, rather than attempting to win the race himself (I hope Jason doesn’t read this as his tweets scare me). He then drew wide at his most recent outing and had to make a run from the 600m on a day where you had to be on the rail and near the speed to be any type of hope. Put a line through that. With the smaller field, better gate and less exposed speed here, I think Jason Brown will look to settle him just off the speed. If he can give him the gun run, I am really confident this is the race he wins (it tends to be one every campaign) at around the $20 quote.

Broker has had the run of the race two starts in a row, though from barrier 7 may not be afforded the same luck. Bon Voyage I thought was only fair at his most recent outing. Is drawn to get a perfect run however.

Did you know there is an 11-year-old competing at the Commonwealth Games? Table tennis. She’s good too. The way I see it, if an 11-year-old can do that, then Steve Parnham can break his 138 race drought in the last. Jupiter Rising is another who hasn’t had the right draws this campaign and does look very well placed here. Going to suggest a saver in a race where any of the nine can win.

#TeamNeville

Selections

7 Grey Enigma
10 Jupiter Rising
6 Broker

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Grey Enigma (7). 20 wins Jupiter Rising (10).
  

3 Comments | 6 months ago

Recent Comments

User SLIPPERGOLDEN

SLIPPERGOLDEN 07 Apr | Posts: 5051

Yes the preview was an entertaining read as usual. Another grand effort.

User Ridersonthestorm33

Ridersonthestorm33 06 Apr | Posts: 6412

Like the top comment - 24 degrees and slightly overcast - perfect racing conditions for those with red hair and fair complexions haha :-j

User thefalcon

thefalcon 06 Apr | Posts: 15102

the 138 losing streaker is not on grey enigma...Jason Brown is.... :D