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Ascot Preview, 9th March news

Ascot Preview, 9th March

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 8 March, 2019

A precursor to this preview, that I cannot remember a city Saturday meet that I’ve been less enthusiastic about as a betting proposition. The entire card has a lot of unquantifiable variables which has left me reaching for a few nurofen over the last few days. A very conservative day with the suggested betting stakes.

The rail position at seven metres could be the most important part of any pre-post betting. With the rail closer to the true position, we have seen a bias towards horses closer to the rail/speed. When we hop out to 10-12m midweek, the three wide line really is the spot to be. Plugging right in the middle of that, we may well see a very fair Ascot Saturday meet.

Race 1 - Money Baron

Mikimoto was always going to open up relatively short for the first event of the day, but I think you’ll find the ‘hype’ around her will now start to slowly wear off. Clearly she has not returned from injury the same horse. As a three year old she stepped up to the mile in the Group Three Champion Fillies, when it was roundly agreed she didn’t quite see out a strong mile. To step up to 1800m, third up in a campaign (off 28 days), suggests she is a lot more dour in her work than she once was. She has a stack of class and this is a thin looking event, so she can most definitely win - but at around mid 2’s, she’s worth taking on.

The top selection came down to a ding-dong battle between our mate Bella’s Idol (who tends to hold form when finding it) or Media Baron, and I’ve decided to give the latter one last chance. You won’t find a runner with a more chequered history of bad luck or poor placement than this fellow, but a lot of that he does bring upon himself with his sit and sprint mannerisms. Last time out he ran into Mycroft, Crystal Valley & Avidus who are all flying. This is the easiest race (without an apprentice on) he has faced in some time and should be afforded the opportunity to drop out to last and come hard at them late.

Rose’s Shadow should lead this on her ear, while Decoy Noxious’ midweek win needs to be seen to be believed. A continually underrated conveyance.

Media Baron around the $6 mark - something small each way, a last chance for the big grey.

Selections

4 Media Baron
2 Bella’s Idol
5 Rose’s Shadow
3 Decoy Noxious

Suggested Bet: 25 wins and 25 places Media Baron (4).

 

Race 2 - Fair Price

A few weeks ago I suggested Fairview as the value option up against the provocatively short Seven Castles and again, he looks the value option in a race where he isn’t the ‘gun to the head’ top pick. Peter Knuckey has ridden this Sean Casey trained galloper twice, for two very impressive Saturday grade victories and things do appear in his favour to give this a big shake again. Should settle midifield with cover, steps up to 1100m (which suits more than the 1000m he dropped to and won at most recently) and there is a strong enough tempo in this for him to be there late. The $11 a win looks a nice quote, but the $3 for a top 3 finish is probably the more enticing quote.

Samizdat is clearly the class runner and will be awfully hard to beat. Had absolutely no luck in the three year old Magic Millions event, when still too strong for a reasonable field. The class and depth of that field is definitely questionable - there were no superstars engaged. It appears as though the Gangemi’s are trying to top up his purse with a drop back to 3yo open company. From barrier four, expect Jarrad Noske to have him closer to the speed and he’ll be looking to take luck out of the equation by getting moving before the bend.

If Knuckey can take Samizdat’s back, he’ll make it really interesting late.

Double Bubble is the other winning hope, after a blistering trial for Kate Southam. Not entirely enthused about the appointment on Pat Carbery on all of these Simon Miller horses. Most of Simon’s horses tend to lead and I do think he lacks a little bit of fluency in his motion between hands and heels and whip riding over the final 100-200m. You see a lot of his get run down very late. I’m sure that’ll be a very unpopular opinion, but it’s an opinion nonetheless.

Fairview, each way all day. Best value bet on the card.

Selections

3 Fairview
1 Samizdat
4 Double Bubble
8 Olga Louisa

Suggested Bet: 25 wins and 60 places Fairview (3).

 

Race 3 - Carro

Carocapo looks perfectly placed here. Barrier 1, the drop back to 1100m and only needing to hold out the charge of De Andes early, he should be very hard to get past late. He’s a clear on top selection at a not overly exciting quote.

Pym’s Royale looks the main danger, though the Fernie’s have been dealt the visitors draw with their two big guns they’ve brought to town. The drop back to 1100m doesn’t appear to be in his favour and they may even opt to sit three deep the trip here, for a horse who does like his galloping room.

Hoboken’s win a week ago was too good to ignore, but this is a steep rise in class. Can definitely win again if De Andes softens up Carocapo early.

Expecting the usual wave of support for Pym’s Royale to roll in, which should see Carocapo creep out to the $3 mark. If this is the case, he’s worth a bet.

Selections

4 Carocapo
1 Pym’s Royale
3 Hoboken
7 Guns Of Navarone

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Carocapo (4).

 

Race 4 - Miller’s Best?

There’s been constant rumours circulating that Rio Del Mar is the pick of the bunch for the very strong Simon Miller juvenile brigade. The early money ($3 to $2.05) would suggest these rumours to have some foundation, with her also being backed into fourth favouritism for the Karrakatta Plate ahead of standout Wednesday winner Dig Deep.

All trials have been very pleasing on the eye, but the form hasn’t necessarily stacked up from those trials and she doesn’t appear to be the sharpest of beginners. It takes a pretty good horse to win on debut, taking a sit. I’m sure post race I’ll be reflecting on the fact I took on a Simon Miller juvenile, but she’s worth risking at the shorts.

It is a near impossibility to split the rest with plenty of clashing form lines and very little between them. Expecting it to be a fairly willing speed battle early with Amarillo Rose, Rubic Rose, Beethoven & Drinkwhatyoulike all possessing the early speed to find the top. For this reason, we’ll go with the race fit horse and put Prim And Proper on top. Jason Whiting, fresh off riding the first four winners at Albany on Thursday will have this Alfred Nobel filly stalking the speed and making her presence felt late.

Unfortunately we only see a seven horse field here, cutting out the third dividend for place players, but I am happy having a small speculative bet on Prim And Proper. I think the Niccovi form could prove superior to this lot. Currently at $5 - I am expecting strong support for the majority of this field so we’ll hold out to bet til late. Wouldn’t surprise me to shop at $7+ on the day.

Selections

4 Prim And Proper
2 Amarillo Rose
7 Rio Del Mar
5 Drinkwhatyoulike

Suggested Bet: 30 wins Prim And Proper (4).

 

Race 5 - No Secret

It’s been a frustrating campaign for Three Secrets connections, drawing alleys 10, 11 & 12 on his three runs so far this preparation. Nothing has gone right in those three outings, but there has still been enough encouragement in the runs (and monetary support for the horse) to suggest he’ll be very hard to beat in this. Draws barrier 6 in a race which lacks any real depth and I’d be expecting a more positive ride from regular jock, Shooter McGruddy. His three year old form, just wins this.

Midnight Sky looks the obvious danger, with the key for her being able to hold a spot in running or find the right run in the straight. Another who has been luckless with barrier draws (11, 14 & 15 at her last three), is well positioned to be within striking distance from barrier 3. The winner should come from those two.

Fair Sonari should get it relatively soft in front, but the 60.5kg’s will be an anchor late. Taxadermy at $18 is the blowout, while Flower Of Scotland can run a big race from to time.

Happy giving Three Secrets one more chance.

Selections

7 Three Secrets
2 Midnight Sky
4 Taxadermy
1 Fair Sonari

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Three Secrets (7).

 

Race 6 - Clint Johnston-Pinzu

A unique mile event, where no runner really stands out. Abdicator is a strongly hyped horse who on public appearances to date, does not appear to have come back to racing in any type of form. Ran last after having the back of eventual winner Mr Motown in the Scenic Blast Stakes, before an OK trial a fortnight ago. This is a stable I have a fair amount of respect for in getting their horses to improve dramatically, and purely on class, the good gate and form jockey I would not be willing to completely write off.

Rockon Tommy should get a relatively soft lead here and looks to be building towards peak fitness, while Debellatio appeared to have every chance to beat that galloper home last start but was unable to do so. Could go better for Staeck? Special Delivery draws wide, but is clearly flying, but how much does he lose with Mitch Pateman opting for the ride on Abdicator? State Prosecutor trialled really nicely and the stable send him out with a raft of gear changes. He has the class to settle last and finish right over the top of these.

This leaves Pinzu as the last man standing. The bar shoes have been off for a few starts now and this is a significant drop in class (quality of field wise) from his last few outings. At his most recent effort he sat deep throughout when only 3.8 lengths from Star Exhibit. From barrier 3 or 4, he’d be an absolute each way special, but from barrier 6, CJP will need to ride a really nice race to slot him in midfield and time his run correctly. Happy having something on each way at the double figure quote. Backing in CJP to produce a peach.

Selections

3 Pinzu
7 State Prosecutor
6 Special Delivery
4 Rockon Tommy

Suggested Bet: 25 wins and 25 places Pinzu (3).

 

Race 7 - 2400m

The 2400m of this event really is the key, with a few of these unlikely to run it out strongly.

Upwards Others really does pick himself here, but it is hard to get too excited about a horse who just continually finds a way to lose. Should have won his last three and this is comfortably the easiest field, from a good draw, he has faced in that time. Looks like he’ll eat up the 2400m.

Witness In Court is the most talented runner in this field, but the step up to 2400m does possess a few question marks for a horse who has not won past a mile. Has run nice races over 2000m-2200m in better company, but from the awkward barrier draw he’ll need to be back near last. If a few of the slow ones midfield start stopping it might be hard to get the right cart into the race with the big weight. Will need a pearler for Mitch.

Bill’s O’Reilly and Stafford’s Lad are both not impossible with the positive barrier swings, while I know I have completely lost it but I’d be having something very small on Saxon Saxoff. There doesn’t appear to be a huge amount of exposed speed in this with Dealing potentially to take up the running. This should allow CJP to roll forward with this out and out grinder and eventually find the top in it’s usual fashion (when the pace is slow enough). Ran third in last years 3200m Listed Western Australian Cup, beating the fourth horse by 9 lengths. It can grind. Would love to see them take off and try put 10 on the field.

We’ll have something small on Upward Others and Saxon Saxoff who’ll probably get out to $100+ on the day.

Selections

9 Upward Others
12 Saxon Saxoff
13 Stafford’s Lad
8 High Energy

Suggested Bet: 25 wins Upward Others (9). 10 wins Saxon Saxoff (12).

 

Race 8 - Little Fish, Big Fish

After watching Whiting tear Albany a new one on Thursday, the obvious selection here is Little Fish. That and the fact it is clearly the most talented horse in the race.

First up effort on a rail/leader bias Pinjarra was just huge behind Carocapo. Sat three deep the trip and had no right to hang on for second spot. Actually beat third place quite comfortably. Carocapo has since made that form look strong. The obvious worry is the barrier draw with a fair amount of speed drawn underneath him. Is a horse who can do it tough however and I do think it looks one of the better bets of the day with any type of luck from the gate.

Classic Pro should have won 3 more starts in his career and was an absolute moral beaten in a similar race a fortnight ago. Drops back to the 1200m here and Lisa Staples retains the mount. With luck, is hard to beat from barrier 4, but tends to lack luck.

A watch on Plutocracy having his first run in the state after a very sharp trial. Hasn’t won since being on debut as a two year old over East. That worries me.

Little Fish, around $4. One of your better bets for the day.

Selections

2 Little Fish
12 Classic Pro
5 Plutocracy
11 Alta Sulla’more

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Little Fish (2).

  

15 Comments | 1 week ago

Recent Comments

User saxonsaxoff

saxonsaxoff 11 Mar | Posts: 91

Saxon Saxoff tipped with confidence should be noted. Could have got a full unit of both the quaddies with the 4 tips in each race for 256 each. Not bad when they pay 864 and 11300 ! Stellar tipping Hope a few of you managed to have a sneaky ea...

User H-BOMBER

H-BOMBER 09 Mar | Posts: 6807

Saxon Saxoff tipped with confidence should be noted. Could have got a full unit of both the quaddies with the 4 tips in each race for 256 each. Not bad when they pay 864 and 11300 ! Stellar tipping

User piker

piker 09 Mar | Posts: 256

Little Fish are sweet!

User udontknow

udontknow 09 Mar | Posts: 416

Had 2 bets in the previous. The winner saxon saxoff and American joy. What the hell was molly doing. Needs to go back to riding school after that. No effort at all!!

User SKIDS

SKIDS 09 Mar | Posts: 681

I'd be happy even if the fave wins 7 ($198k), 8 ($177k) 4 ($155k) or 10 ($71k) would be nice!

User piker

piker 09 Mar | Posts: 256

Good to see Skids; I don't have 7 or 8 but I have the others for just a few percent!

User SKIDS

SKIDS 09 Mar | Posts: 681

Alive in the Qauddie with 2,4, 5, 7. 8, or 10 in the last. Only 10%.

User Offthebit

Offthebit 09 Mar | Posts: 536

Ascot race 7 was 30 seconds late and gets flicked to a split screen on sky 2. Wow wee just when I thought the muppets at sky couldn’t get any worse they go and do that. What a joke

User Rodent

Rodent 09 Mar | Posts: 4402

When he loses form....#backmitchsleepinaditch

User H-BOMBER

H-BOMBER 09 Mar | Posts: 6807

Gee whiz M Pateman killing it at the moment #backmitchgetrich