Beating The Odds - Pinjarra Park
Not feeling overly opinionated this week (a long weekend of punting and drinking may have contributed to that) so we will see if we can find a little bit of value at the midweek Pinjarra meeting.
Website sponsor PUNTA.com.au are also fielding this meeting.
Quest To Venus is the early favourite here and on her recent trial and form in better races last campaign it is understandable why. However, the appointment of Sasha Starley raises a lot of red flags. I've been wracking my brain trying to think of Sasha's last provincial or city winner (I could just look it up, but then you all won't be able to correct me) and Artistic Life back in 2013 is the last I can remember. And I don't think I have missed a race in that time (I need to get a life). So straight away the $3.40 on offer looks very dubious. I expect we'll see her drift heavily on the day meaning a few of the others should currently represent some value.
Shouhou and Missile Launch are the two first starters with the most impressive trials. Missile Launch in particular may well be suited if the Pinjarra bias is in play again, but not many win at their first race start. Especially past 1000m.
The one which may represent a bit of value is the Stan Bates trained Freecell. At his debut run he was supported from $30 to $7 when getting well back (on a very leader bias day) and given no chance by Jason Whiting when he appeared to be travelling very nicely. Second up he was beaten only a length and a half when he again was on the wrong part of the track and was given too big of a task. He ran the second quickest last 600m on that day and hit the line nicely.
My guess is that we will see a three wide line here with Sasha potentially very prominent in creating that line. If McGruddy can have Freecell somewhere in that line and the Pinjarra track plays a little fairer I dare say we could see him finishing over the top of them.
I will be the first to congratulate Sasha if she breaks her drought but at the $20+ with all corporates at the moment, I think Freecell represents a fair bit of value.
Chaser looks the standout on paper here but the recent trial has left a few question marks over this Bob Peters owned gelding. Hard ridden, he was unable to get past Slick Mover, who did anything but frank that form on Easter Monday at York. This stable would not have had him 100% for that trial and he is definitely still the one to beat and deserved favourite. There looks to be a bit of depth to this maiden with Mr Undercover, Mad Mel & Marega involved but the one I like is the fellow with the two duck eggs next to his name since a spell, Chebelleza.
First up he was strongly supported down the straight when never in the race. Some horses simply don't handle the straight and I think this Scandal Keeper filly is one who needs to be held up for one late 200-300m dash at them. Second up Ben Paterson found all sorts of trouble and again he was never in the race after being held up until it was all too late. He appeared to be bolting. The run which has sold me however is his slashing third behind Tonkatuff and General Husson last campaign. His final 600m of 35.29 dwarfed both of these runners who would start $1.50 in this race. If he repeats that effort the only horse who can beat him is an improved Chaser.
The flying Frenchman takes over from Banjo and if he can keep his European impatience in check he could get the last crack at them. At nearly $20 with all corporate agencies at the time of writing he looks a good each way bet.
Not quite as rough as the last two, but Mosstiara is one which still represents value at the $4 quote. This is a very weak race and on her last run she just wins this. Her two runs at Ascot on the 1st and 15th of February were full of merit against horses who would start under $2.50 in this field. She was unlucky not to win both of those. She then stepped up to the open three year old events and was butchered worse than Lloyd Rayneys ex-wife.
She was a moral beaten at her latest outing when getting a lot further back then connections would have anticipated and being held up at crucial stages of the straight. Seemed to love the 1500m after absolutely savaging the line and with normal racing luck this is her race. Brodie Kirby to Aaron Mitchell is the winning move. Think she should be closer to the $2.30 mark.
8 Comments | 1 week ago