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Belmont Preview, 16th June news

Belmont Preview, 16th June

Perth Turf Talk | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 15 June, 2018

Race 1 – Two Two’s

Belmont with be bathed in sunshine on a cracking winter’s day befitting a brilliant edition of the Hyperion Stakes. The Socceroo’s knocking off the frogs shortly after the last, will be the cherry on top of a great day’s sport.

The opening event of the day is as clear a two-horse race as you will ever see. In fact, I hadn’t seen two more evenly matched animals since Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un went snout to snout midweek. Kelly’s Callisto was well piloted by the in-form Glenn Smith a fortnight ago when rolling forward and winning with a fair degree of comfortability. From the good draw here, he will have more options though you would expect this son of Planet Five to be in the first four in running.

It wouldn’t have surprised many to see Simon Miller yet again roll out another very smart looking youngster. Special Reward dazzled at the trials before an effortless midweek victory. Looks to be really smart. It really does look like a flip of the coin job, but we’ll give Kelly’s Callisto the nod with the better form lines and gate. On top of that, it’s becoming difficult to cheer for Miller’s continued dominance in the two-year-old events.

I liked Locklear’s last 100m in his maiden debut. All trials prior to that did look poor, but at $20+ a place from the inside marble for a form jockey, he could throw some much-needed value into exotics.

Selections

1 Kelly’s Callisto
2 Special Reward
11 Locklear

Suggested Bet: No bet.


Race 2 – Form Stable

Only the nine to do battle in the second event of the day, but a race which has proven tricky to analyse. Happy to put a line through Another Demon (I don’t think the Ice Maker form lines will hold up, no matter how far you win by), Murray The Bulldog (who was given a 10/10 rail hugging ride to knock off the limited Me ‘n’ Taz) and Demons ‘N’ Dust. That leaves us with 6 winning hopes.

Pearl Trade and Classic Chant come out of the Fabergino demolition a fortnight ago and that is clearly the strongest form line in this event. Pearl Trade was arguably the run of the race behind Fabergino and has opened a deserving $2.90 favourite. She is definitely more of a 1200m horse and will probably even stretch out to further under the guidance of Alan Mathews, but will appreciate the top end speed this race has. Classic Chant has been solid at all three career starts and the appointment of William Pike can only be a positive. For a horse who will roll forward and attempt to create her own luck, Pike isn’t necessarily the ‘big’ appointment he may well be on a horse looking to utilise a late sprint – over the 1000m for a horse rolling forward, there isn’t much extra he can extract on this filly. We’ll take her on.

Dynamite Dream from barrier 3 was disappointing fresh against the classy Super Maxi, but despite looking gone a long way from home was only beaten by 3 lengths. Does do his best work out in front but may well have to settle for a spot just off the speed with Another Demon likely to hold the lead from the inside draw and Classic Chant coming across to race on his outside. Tayla Stone is riding well enough to make that decision as the race unfolds.

Money will tell a big story when it comes to Danny George’s chances. Clearly has a stack of ability and I suspect if the camp has any type of confidence, the $5 quote currently on offer won’t hang around long. My Demi appears to have probably had enough, this will be the geldings seventh start this campaign.

Thunderstrut was my best bet midweek before the wide draw and subsequent good draw on Saturday saw connections opt for this event instead. A filly who has shown glimpses throughout her 12-start career, without that big defining performance. Has shown the versatility to lead or sit and sprint in the past and I suspect she will have the soft run on the leaders back. If Lucy can find a gap on straightening, this in-form stable could keep it’s run going.

That feels like a waste of words as I still have minimal confidence. Thunderstrut with a 10/10 Lucy special from the fast finishing Pearl Trade and Danny George. Easy.

Selections

9 Thunderstrut
2 Pearl Trade
5 Danny George

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places Thunderstrut (9).


Race 3 - Our Boy Brodie

A tough few weeks for Brodie Kirby got even tougher on Wednesday after going down as the $1.03 favourite for the jockey challenge. There has no been a shortage of critics of his recent efforts in the saddle and unfortunately those criticism have been warranted. He is simply in a form slump which has clearly dented his confidence to take gaps and show aggression. Like any sportsman, you will go through slumps in your career, but we’ve seen enough from Brodie to know he will bounce back and regain that confidence and form. Jack Darling couldn’t get a kick for half of last season before being the All-Australian full forward after 10 rounds, 99% of that would be mental.

Brodie has an early opportunity to get some of that swagger back, with a horse which does look to have a clear class edge on his rivals in Gifted Warrior. Was $10 to $4.40 at his most recent outing when a touch stiff in being defeated by Aconite. This race is no harder and Aconite draws awkwardly. Brodie should look toward the simple mentality of ‘go back and get wide’ to be too strong for this lot late. Nearly $5 is available, which looks to be a big quote for a horse with a clear class edge.

Send My Love and Love Always were good midweek when going down to the smart Freo, but both did have their chances to defeat a horse who was afforded no luck. A watch on Bollinger Boy who may well be his biggest danger.

Confident Brodie can make amends here.

Selections

1 Gifted Warrior
4 Bollinger Boy
9 Send My Love

Suggested Bet: 50 wins and 50 places Gifted Warrior (1).


Race 4 – Out of Superlatives

I have nothing left to write about Enticing Star. She is really good. Really, really good. But we won’t learn anything else about her this campaign, so give it a rest Robert – let somebody else win one of these!

Max Almighty should run second, though Get The Vibe has the ability to give some cheek out in front, while Star Glitter at $10+ a place in an 8 horse field could provide some value for exotic or place players.

Good luck to connections of Tax A Million as he makes his first start since November of 2014. That’s perseverance.

Selections

1 Enticing Star
2 Max Almighty
5 Star Glitter

Suggested Bet: No bet.


Race 5 - Putin

After watching Vladimir Putin cheering on the Russians in the World Cup opener last night, the omen tip would appear to be the well backed Red Army. If you were going down the ‘backing omens’ path however you’d probably want to look at a running double with Great Shot in the next.

I don’t know if this race is as clear cut as the market suggests. Red Army stepped up from 1200m to 1600m at his most recent outing and was given as good a ride as you could possibly ask for when demolishing a reasonably strong field for a Thursday at Northam. Clearly has a heap of ability and perhaps was trained to get the mile plus, rather than the sprinting journey’s this time in but from barrier 10 he will need to either be ridden for luck to find a spot forward of midfield or jagged back to near last.

Bella’s Idol is a gelding I have a fair bit of time for but has proven a handful for Peter Hall at his two starts this campaign. First up, she missed the kick by a couple of lengths and was then asked for a searching run from the 600m mark. The way she kept coming was simply huge and put the writing on the wall that if he can get his head right, he will win Saturday races. Unfortunately, second up he did the same thing when bombing the start and having minimal interest in racing truly. Unless the horses name is Baraki Beats, I like to avoid the headcases though I’m willing to give him a chance here at around the $12 quote. There was money around for him to beat Red Army at their most recent outing. If he can get out the gates cleanly and utilise the barrier and weight swing on Red Army, he can knock him off.

My Grace can improve with Kirby going on for Colgate, while Forty Four Red, Mrs Brown’s Boy and Buster’s Shadow are all flying. A competitive affair.

Selections

10 Bella’s Idol
6 Red Army
5 My Grace

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Bella’s Idol (10).


Race 6 – Cream of The Crop

The post mortem of the Belmont Sprint meeting a fortnight ago wasn’t pretty. Tipping Battle Hero on top in a race with the class of Material Man and Pounamu made us question some of our structures and processes **insert several more footy clichés**. Tipping against those two was extremely erroneous and the class gap of those animal’s comparative to what else we have on offer has been made abundantly clear. I promise it won’t happen again.

Cannot see Material Man being beaten here after the dominance he won with first up. There is the talk that Pounamu will improve with race fitness and distance, but the thing is – so will Material Man. Really felt that he held them well over the final 100m and the speed map of this race should see Material Man on Great Shot’s back. Woodsville is likely to work over to the outside of Great Shot which will see everything in the one out line having to go early when the old fella’ is hailing an Uber with 600m to go. Material Man should not have to leave the fence til the straight when he will pop past Great Shot and record his third consecutive group victory en route to an Eastern States campaign.

The big question is whether Pounamu will get the right run to knock past Great Shot, and I think over the mile at WFA conditions he will. Gatting should run fourth. The quartet will only be around $15 but looks a reasonably good bet with the predictability of this race.

Selections

3 Material Man
1 Pounamu
2 Great Shot

Suggested Bet: No bet.


Race 7 – All Class

I try not to build an affiliation with certain horses (again, refer to the pain of being a Baraki Beats follower), but this will be the fourth consecutive start I will be labelling Come Play With Me as the best of the day. A victor by over 3 lengths against Born Blue, who subsequently won two on the bounce was followed up by what will be the worst beat of 2018. I don’t want to talk about it anymore, we’ve moved on. Pike was then unsurprisingly given the nod to take over the steering and he absolutely embarrassed them, knocking off the smart and in-form Elegant Blast by 4 lengths. Should be $1.60 at best in this, but the field size and depth in this event has left him at a very backable $2.50.

If he was to again encounter bad luck, he could be beaten by any one of 10 other horses. The Bernie Miller yard is flying at the moment and the $7.50 for Born Blue to fill a top 3 hole does look to be a reasonably sized quote for a horse who may well be receiving a cart up from the favourite.

Elegant Blast and Dudemanbro are both flying, while Keeper’s Son may be the biggest danger if Emma Stent can steal a big enough break on straightening. Confident that Come Play With Me wins and wins well.

Selections

6 Come Play With Me
12 Born Blue
7 Elegant Blast

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Come Play With Me (6).


Race 8 – Green And Gold

By this stage of the day I’ll be focussing on Bert Van Marwijk’s starting eleven and fantasising about a 92nd minute winner from Timmy Cahill. We can only dream…

Final Salute has opened up favourite here ($3.80 to $3.20 early), but to me it does look like a horse you’d want to take on. Having not trialled since the 7th of May, you’d have to presume there was an issue with this Not A Single Doubt gelding and there would have to be question marks on his ability to run a strong 1400m fresh. In saying that, the Grant & Alana Williams stable is one you’d trust to get the job done.

Found it difficult to pinpoint what I liked to beat him, but in the end opted for Touch Of Silver. The trial was soft and he does race well fresh. After an early nomination for the Railway Stakes last campaign, he didn’t quite hit that level, though it does show how highly the very astute stable do rate him.

Expecting improvement from Red Paddy with the jockey change, while Mosseratti, Ripper Rio and Fontainebleau are all winning hopes in a wide-open affair.

Selections

3 Touch Of Silver
7 Red Paddy
12 Mosseratti

Suggested Bet: No bet.  

8 Comments | 3 months ago

Recent Comments

User Source

Source 16 Jun | Posts: 73

Touch of silver looked short of a run. I'll be backing up next start.

User RIO

RIO 16 Jun | Posts: 13627

Problem with Touch is Castle is on. 2 missed opportunities today.......

User TheSwooper

TheSwooper 16 Jun | Posts: 1424

Problem with Touch is Castle is on.

User Source

Source 16 Jun | Posts: 73

Touch of silver seems huge odds. Show Honey also looks overs. 1 of them will win.

User Source

Source 16 Jun | Posts: 73

The kid on Bob's horse is out of his depth at the moment.

User piker

piker 15 Jun | Posts: 168

Finally making a post ; ignore the previous emoji as i was trying and trying to get on board. Any way R1/ I liked Kelly's too becos of it's Sat win wit good last sectional. The fave did not beat much on a Wed. R2/ I thought Pearls and Dynamite; couldnt hav...

User piker

piker 15 Jun | Posts: 168

X_X

User Chris

Chris 15 Jun | Posts: 3682

Im sure well all have a bet tomorrow but would appreciate even a $10 wager on this cause. https://stepupformswa.org.au/champion/step-up-2018/ChrisNelson