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Belmont Preview 17th August with Daniel Cripps news

Belmont Preview 17th August with Daniel Cripps

Matt Rigby | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 16 August, 2019

The last few Saturdays I’ve found doing the form quite tricky and have had minimal interest which led to some shortened previews because its been hard to suggest high confidence bets. However this week is the exact opposite, was an absolute pleasure doing the meeting and I’ll be bitterly disappointed if we don’t get a couple of good results. Very bullish so fingers crossed luck is on our side.

Currently a Soft6 and with more rain between now and the first event I’m expecting the track to be a Soft7. The rail was at 4m last Saturday and while I didn’t think it was obvious at the time after doing the review I quickly realised the inside pad was highly inferior. Out to 6m on Saturday so hopefully we see an even track where they can win from anywhere if the tempo suits.


Race 1- Omen Bet

A horse with the name “Paty” running on the same day as the #9 from Carlton runs out to play his 100th game and just like that the form for race 1 is done, easy. The speed should be good here with SASSATIONAL holding the front with CITY CENTRE working outside.

In all seriousness pretty keen on PATY’S FORCAST here to get us off to a flyer. Earlier in the year she backed up an eye catching trial to impress on debut, flooding home late to finish on the heels of a couple who have acquitted themselves quite well since and recording a really strong figure in the process. Tipped straight out until Monday where she trialled like a bomb up the Pinnie straight. The step up to 1200m suits and I think Kennedy can park her midfield and finish over the top of them.

JOVELLA looks to be the main danger. Debuted over a mile in a really strong ratings race before running well in the Natasha Stakes. It looks as though Liz Strempel thought she had a stayer on her hands so it will be interesting to see how she goes over 1200m for new trainer Justin Warwick. That being said she trialled super over 950m and maps to settle leaders back and get every chance.

ALIEN FROM MARS was a real eye catcher on debut after being caught wide although I’m not convinced about the form out of that race going forward. I’ll have to throw in SASSATIONAL for fourth who will lead and try her heart out, but more importantly my Mother has a share in her and I do want to stay on the Christmas Card list this year. SHERPA LASS has looked the goods in her trials but draws a tough gate on debut.

Think the winner comes from the top two selections and I’m looking forward to watching Paty and Paddy on Saturday. Good luck to both.






Betting Strategy:

$50 wins PATY’S FORCAST and $20 wins JOVELLA


Race 3- Pilot Change

Whoever made the call to put Jason Brown on MAGIC LAS VEGAS is a genius. That’s definitely not a crack at the kid, she is riding well at the moment but one of the state’s leading front running hoops jumping aboard an on pace horse in a race devoid of speed looks to be a super call. Last start the gelding was well backed and did a good job to almost pinch it after wanting to over race. I expect JB to take him straight to the front and dictate, from there they might have a tough time running him down.

HERE COMES LENNI is the obvious horse to beat, he recorded a big figure in a dominant win two starts back before being restrained to the tail from a wide gate last week but made good ground up the inside. Drawn to get the run of the race and should be hard to beat. ZARATITE is very progressive but has been scratched a couple of times since his impressive last start win and you just have to assume there has been a set back along the way. Would be a huge effort to get him cherry ripe off that but if anyone can do it it’s this trainer/jock combo. MOSSERATTI in for fourth at big odds who has been good so far this campaign and gets out to a trip for the first time.

I think the favourites will be hard to hold out and MAGIC LAS VEGAS doesn’t win out of turn but I’m happy to have a place heavy wager on. Anything close to $3 to run top three would be appreciated.






Betting Strategy:

$10 wins and $40 places MAGIC LAS VEGAS


4- Take Your Pick

They should run along here at an even tempo with first upper SENSE OF POWER leading from PATROCITY. I originally thought there were three chances in this event before narrowing it down to two. Looks a flip of the coin job between UNI TIME and CRYPTIC LOVE for mine.

CRYPTIC LOVE was one for the replay watchers last start. Had to go back to last from the wide gate but absolutely rattled into the minors. From the better draw she can sit handy and just needs a split. UNI TIME was a big winner last time in, got a peach of a ride that day from Kennedy and while he looked to be somewhat labouring in the early stages of the straight his last 100m was super impressive which suggested he will love the 1400m.

EXPRESS FLIRT was another one who put an eye catcher in first up and will appreciate the softer draw but he does lose the services of Pike while GO CRYING goes in for fourth after his fast finishing first up performance.

Like I said finding it very hard to split the two. Finally settled on UNI TIME only because he is lightly raced and has the ability to really elevate 3rd up here. They are currently both around the $3.2 mark, if there is much difference between the two on the day I’d suggest backing the longer priced one.






Betting Strategy:

$50 wins UNI TIME and $25 wins CRYPTIC LOVE


5- Make My Account Balance Great Again

I had conservatively marked GREAT AGAIN around $2.5 so you could imagine me rubbing my eyes when Tabtouch put up $7. I know I said I wouldn’t talk about their opening prices but far out, checking who the jockey is would be a good start.

The ‘$7 chance’ will go straight to the front and I’m pretty confident he won’t get headed. He really came of age last prep and recorded some outstanding figures in the process. He gets the services of W Pike who will be ready to get back into it after some time off and should just keep ploughing through the soft going. Is now into a more realistic price of $2.7 but I am still happy to play at those odds.

I think the only danger is the stablemate TAMASA who brings some serious X Factor into the race. The son of So You Think has already recorded some outstanding figures in his short career and while he might be looking for a bit further you don’t see them trial much better. MULTIVERSE is an underrated galloper who will also love the wet track and while I think LOCKROY is well under the odds you have to respect his last start win.

I’ll be very surprised if the winner of this race isn’t trained by L Smith. Heavy lean towards the favourite who looks more suited by the track/distance and gets the services of the wizard. Best of the day and a load up job on a Soft6 or worse, don’t forget to do the rain dance.






Betting Strategy:

$80 wins GREAT AGAIN and $20 wins TAMASA


7- Talent Verified

All preparation I’ve been finding ESSENTIAL SPICE a hard horse to assess. On the eye she looks to be a star, pushing horses like Samizdat but for one reason or another the figures just didn’t quite seem to be emulating her talent. However that changed last start, she recorded a rating more than two lengths better than her previous personal best. Now the question is can she reproduce that run because if she does then she just wins. There should be plenty of speed again with a COGNAC and SARACINO engaged which will allow C Parnham to sit off them and save her for another big run down the middle of the track.

If the real PYM’s ROYALE turns up then he looks the main danger. Didn’t have a lot of luck last start and is drawn to get the run of the race. DIA DE LA RAZA can run a race at big odds, his best figures are very good and goes much better on rain affected surfaces. FLOYD has to be in the mix after finishing pretty close to Valour Road last start while FESTIVAL MISS has to be a huge query dropping back to the 1000m but write off those silks at your own peril.

We are getting $2.3 to find out if ESSENTIAL SPICE can reproduce her dominant last start win. I think she can and anything over even money looks a good enough price.






Betting Strategy:




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