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Belmont Preview, 18th August news

Belmont Preview, 18th August

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 17 August, 2018

Race 1 – The Word On The Street

Sunny, 20 degrees and some competitive fields means I can forgo my usual pre-race one rant. This doesn’t mean all ‘The Bachelor’ related tweeting has gone unnoticed however, it’s just a warning.

The word on the street is we might have a couple of specials one lining up in the first. I can’t remember the last time I’ve been genuinely enthused about PR1, but this looks like an absolutely cracking field. Fire And Rain is your tried and tested jump and run horse who you know will display a high degree of honesty. As we know, weight can stop a train and unfortunately for Paul Jordan and co, it can also stop Fire And Rain (that was intentional). The 59.5kg’s and awkward draw (likely speedsters Agent Pippa and Flirtini are drawn underneath him) means this Oratorio colt will have to work double time to find the breeze at best. There will be a race for him soon, but it’ll probably be against the older horses with a lower weight.

Agent Pippa put in a brilliant front running display in the Group 3 Gimcrack Stakes before succumbing to injury, when one of the pre-post favourites for the Karrakatta Plate. Without a trial, the market might be your best guide to how that horse is travelling. Flirtini is a $150,000 Artie Schiller filly in the care of juvenile training extraordinaire, Simon Miller. William Pike has been booked for the mount and she is drawn to find the fence and lead after a super impressive Lark Hill trial victory. Race experience could be a factor, but she has had the right educator.

Metro Boy and Seven Castles both have big wraps on them to round out an intriguing juvenile sprint.

Selections

7 Flirtini
1 Fire And Rain
2 Agent Pippa

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

Race 2 – The Secret’s Out

We often see the Pike and Durrant combination successfully team up together, but it is rare we see the two do battle. I am presuming, William Pike was offered the mount on Kelly’s Secret before accepting the ride on one of the better maiden horses in the state; Patrocity. The trainer with the coolest name in Perth, Hec (just edging out Steele) has seen his Patronize gelding run places in top three-year-old company as well as a black type fourth. First up he was super impressive when working to the top and clearly appreciating the Heavy8 conditions behind the smart Crystal Spirit. From the awkward alley, is expected to roll forward again.

Purely assessing this race on an individual basis, I find it almost impossible to go past Kelly’s Secret. His trial over the unsuitable 1000m was more than adequate before being completely unwanted in betting and hitting the line as well as anything from an awkward draw. That betting drift suggests he should be further tightened up and a lot more forward here. Drawn to race closer to the speed and with the possibility of Patrocity using some gas finding a spot in the first two in running, he will be the one coming at him hard over the final 200m. The $1.80 v $5 currently on offer for the two, makes the latter a complete no brainer. He looks the best each way bet of the day.

Selections

7 Kelly’s Secret
1 Patrocity
6 Orabreeze

Suggested Bet: 50 wins and 50 places Kelly’s Secret (7).
 

Race 3 – Heave Ho

Was keen on the chances of the poorly named Freo, from the abandoned meet a fortnight ago. Really like the way Daniel O’Connor has this son of Izmir going and you can tell they fancy it with the money coming in droves at each start this campaign. Missing the recent run is a worry, though did put in a big run behind Battle Torque fresh last time out and that form clearly looks the goods. Get’s a long way back but has the class to finish over the top of them.

Taxadermy is a horse who’s last two runs look disappointing on the surface. On both occasions he found the wrong part of the track and failed to finish off as we know he can. He is reunited with Glenn Smith here and draws barrier one, which should be the place to be with the rail at 3m on a drier Belmont Park surface.

Sense Of Power is racing extremely consistently, though I do worry about the inability to get over Juicing Carrots, while Everymile A Memory is stepping up a mile in class, though does look to possess her fair share of ability. It will be interesting to see if she can produce her wet track form on a slightly firmer surface. Time To Hunt rounds out the winning chances in a competitive affair.

Selections

4 Freo
2 Taxadermy
7 Everymile A Memory

Suggested Bet: 40 wins Freo (4).
 

Race 4 – Pimm’s & Lemonade

This looks the perfect race for Kalgoorlie star, Pym’s Royale. Dominant in five consecutive victories in the Goldfields, if travelling across well and being able to produce his Kalgoorlie form in town, he should simply be too sharp for these. Turbo Power has since made his last victory look very slick. There is always the worry with the travelling horse and a horse having all his form on the one surface, so the $2.80 isn’t a price which I am jumping out of my skin to be on.

Cases could be made for Nashville Cat, Big Caroline (who would prefer it wetter), Vermont Lady (trial was brilliant and is a different horse for Paige Kenney) and Patapus. But the one I think who is currently over the odds and is likely to even shift further in the market is the unfashionable Guns Of Navarone. He has been up a long time for Neville Parnham, but Nifty Nev does have a knack of keeping horses up and winning sporadically over long campaigns. He’s a horse who likes the 1200m and a nice tucked in run not far from the speed – this is the first time he’ll find those conditions since defeating Nashville Cat at this track three starts ago. Currently just under the $20 quote, he is definitely your each way value.

I do enjoy a Pimm’s however and will probably be happy breaking my own rules and take ‘under’ what I’d consider the true odds. I’m just glad the race doesn’t clash with the mighty mare over East as Australia would be torn which one to tune into.

Selections

3 Pym’s Royale
5 Guns Of Navarone
6 Vermont Lady

Suggested Bet: 60 wins Pym’s Royale (3). 10 wins and 20 places Guns Of Navarone (5).
 

Race 5 – Kensington Beats

I can feel myself going all ‘Baraki Beats’ with this horse, but it just keeps finding it’s way into my blackbook and I can keep making strong cases for it. Kensington Abbey did not get the required run last start when Lucy snagged her out to last and made her flood down the centre of a track which was not conducive to flooding. It was still a huge run from a horse who is more of a grinder than a sprinter. One thing we know about Arthur Mortimer’s horses is that they are rock hard fit. The step up to 2100m is a definite concern, but he is the trainer who can make it happen. Her only prior effort over a journey was when Clinton Porter had her 3 deep throughout in a three-year-old listed event. In a race lacking much true staying depth, I am willing to speculate on Arthur getting her over the journey.

Truly Belong and Beg To Differ look the one’s to beat on paper, both putting in solid performances behind Prying Tom. While the margin that day was huge, I think we need to start considering the fact Prying Tom might be a very talented stayer (the Red Army form line is proving that). But it still suggests that they aren’t world beaters to be six lengths further afield. Grand Cadeau looks nicely in and you’d expect Tayla Stone to have this Pour Moi gelding either rolling along in front or taking the sit on the leaders back. With 53kg’s, this is a recipe for victory.

Happy having a small speculative bet on Kensington Abbey who I think will get out to close to 20/1 by the time they jump.

Selections

1 Kensington Abbey
11 Truly Belong
7 Grand Cadeau

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places Kensington Abbey (1).
 

Race 6 – Lane’s Dux

Top Of The Class represents the current best value win bet of the day. Was strangled in a recent trial from William Pike to keep some freshness in the legs and is a horse who has put in some huge runs fresh. From barrier 2, he will be able to sit behind the reasonably strong tempo set by Great Again, By Decree, Senorita Bonita and even Conseated and if within a few lengths of them on straightening should be able to get past this lot. Currently $4.40 is on offer across the board, I think she starts closer to $2.50. A lightly weighted, Pike ridden, well drawn up and comer – she will be all the rage.

Great Again is clearly the biggest hurdle to her chances here, but with the aforementioned pace in this event, he might not get it his own way out in front. While Senorita Bonita cannot win this race, it could well be the pest which hands this race to Top Of The Class.

Selections.

10 Top Of The Class
3 Great Again
8 Count Tomoz Off

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Top Of The Class (10). Take the early price.
 

Race 7 – Boat Race

Equally as keen on the chances of Gangemi sprinter Super Maxi here. There seems to be some concern with this Redoute’s Choice gelding’s ability to run out a strong 1200m. If you look at his last effort and the pressure poured on by It’s It, he was more than entitled to give up the ghost a long way from home. Arguably with a bit of stronger riding late, he would have been victorious.

This race has less top end pressure, there is no cutaway in place (it is always advantageous for a leader to be able to hug the rail throughout) and he remains on the minimum weight due to his defeat there. Should lead and win.

Going to go a little left field for my second selection, with Mr Motown ticking all the boxes to run a big race here. In that same race Super Maxi is coming out of, Lucy was hampered by a bad draw when forced to sit wide and rearward on a track which did not suit that style at all. Still loomed into the race nicely. From barrier 4 he well could land outside Super Maxi here or may even get the trail if Flying Time or Rebel King find that spot outside of Super Maxi. He’s currently around the $15 mark and I can’t see there being a huge amount of support for him, so you’ll probably see longer.

Olivers Travels will probably jump the punters elect and while I believe he is the best horse in the race with scope to compete in this years Railway Stakes, I do not believe the conditions of this particular event suit. He will no doubt have to go back to near last over a trip which is a touch shorter than he’d prefer. He will be the one running on late, but we are trying to find the winner of THIS race, not the feature over 1400m in a fortnights time.

Happy having something on Super Maxi at $4 and Mr Motown each late at what I suspect will be upwards of $20 / $4.

Selections

10 Super Maxi
3 Mr Motown
9 Olivers Travels

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Super Maxi (10). 10 wins and 20 places Mr Motown (3).
 

Race 8 – Don’t Blink

They will be going quick here. Recoiled (barrier 3), Undisclosed (4), Dia De La Raza (5), The Celt (8), Sharpbob (11), Epic Grey (12) are all runners who do their best work when rolling along in front. An early speed map is a bit of a nightmare and really just educated guess work, but one thing that is for sure is that there will be a three-wide line.

Epic Grey is comfortably the best horse in this event and probably has the capabilities of winning this, even if leading up that three-wide line. If Tayla Stone can find cover (ideally on Sharpbob’s back) you’d suspect with the early pressure applied to the likes of Dia De La Raza and Undisclosed, that he would be too strong for them late. The pattern and rail bias of the day will be essential here and a late bet might be beneficial.

I Am Incredible looks suited with a sit, though barrier 1 in a race with this much pace could be a curse. It may be a near impossibility for Steve Parnham to find holes if he ends up three back the pegs when the on pacers start calling Ubers.

Woolibar and Red Publisher are total maddies, who if they completely over cook it, might be able to run the sharpest last 200m’s. Woolibar in particular is one worth keeping an eye on back on top of the ground. Is capable of blistering sectionals over these short journey’s. I’ll be having something small on at $50+.

Selections

1 Epic Grey
4 Woolibar
5 I Am Incredible

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Epic Grey. 10 wins Woolibar (4).

6 Comments | 1 month ago

Recent Comments

User Elitist

Elitist 18 Aug | Posts: 271

Anyone hear that Epic Grey was going to be restrained to last?

User DamienWyer

DamienWyer 18 Aug | Posts: 6120

That mile will remain in Electra Bloodstock's memory for a while... You could easily dismiss the run as the mare was blocked for a clear run in the last 200M

User rooboy

rooboy 18 Aug | Posts: 1244

Sticking with Kensington Abbey (Owes me **** loads)By Decree retires after this race so will thro it in with Count Tomoz OffMr Motown/Olivers TravellsEpic Grey should win but throwing in Woolibar at big odds!

User RIO

RIO 18 Aug | Posts: 13627

Got what i deserve....bet on Freo teh favourite!!!!!!

User Flanders

Flanders 18 Aug | Posts: 139

That mile will remain in Electra Bloodstock's memory for a while...

User piker

piker 17 Aug | Posts: 168

This is The Other Belmont Preview.It has so many similarities that i have to say 'Hey Bro!'.But it must be the older Bro, as I do not know anyone interested in WA racing than me. Who was a fan of Sailor's Guide and barracked him home when he won in USA?R/1 I a...