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Belmont Preview, 21st July news

Belmont Preview, 21st July

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 20 July, 2018

Race 1 – Nic’s Knee

A really tough week comes to a close with the retirement of Tim Cahill and second knee reconstruction for Nic Naitanui. My biggest mistake this week was reading the ‘comments’ section on one of the Fremantle Dockers social media pages and encountering some of the real bottom feeders of society detailing their joy at Nic’s misfortune. I can just imagine them sitting under their bridge attempting to steal some WiFi from a nearby house, using one finger to type their extremely witty remarks. This would no doubt have brought a smile to their weathered faces exposing their two protruding teeth. We should have remained a one team state.

Now I’ve managed to alienate 50% of the people who might read this, let’s kick on with some winners.

Misty Metal is motoring at the moment but is mapped to miss a spot. 6 words starting with M in my opening sentence. New record. Pending on what tactics are employed with the Paul Jordan trained Saturia, it is plausible that from barrier 6, Misty Metal could be left facing the breeze, three wide. The drop back to 1000m from the 1200m is not ideal for a filly well into a preparation, but she really is flying.

It’s Got It All is the interesting runner in this and your likely leader. Won a recent trial by 8 lengths and Jim Taylor does have a knack of producing front running sprinters fresh. Belmont has shown an on-pace bias in recent months, so the $14 for your likely leader over 1000m looks a reasonable each way quote. You should at least get a sight.

Thunderstrut is likely to enjoy the run a soft run from barrier 1, while Raise A Smile becomes a chance if they overcook it out in front. The $3.30 currently on offer about this Adam Durrant gelding, is gross unders with this step up in class though. Citichant did not frank that form in an easier race on Thursday and her last win was completely set up for her. Raise A Smile at $3.30 v It’s Got It All at $14 looks to be far too big a discrepancy. Happy having a small play on the latter.

Selections

6 It’s Got It All
1 Misty Metal
3 Thunderstrut

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places It’s Got It All (6).



Race 2 – Crunch

Last year’s Perth Magic Millions sales topper Samizdat (I feel Darren needs to call it in a similar way to Warney would yell ‘howzattttt’), makes his debut and he has not been missed in the early markets. Opening at around the $5 quote with most agencies, this was quickly snapped up with a tick under $3 the best available at the time of writing. This Not A Single Doubt gelding could hardly have been more impressive at the trials. The plan will be to drop him back to near last which sets a debutant a serious task. We don’t see many horses storming down the outside to claim victory on debut, but this fellow has the potential to be one out of the box.

Essential Spice was involved in a two-horse war with Fire And Rain a fortnight ago when recording her first victory. Does go up in weight here but should be able to find the front and does not have that galloper breathing down her neck again. That role this week will go to the Lindsey Smith trained Nemiroff, who’s last start second to Angelic Ruler looks more impressive after her victory last Saturday.

Rebel Knight is a horse the stable has a lot of time for and in form hoop Mitchell Pateman is booked to ride. That combination can never be written off.

One I will throw out as a mad place chance is Party Night. Was not suited at her most recent effort when snagged out the back by Ryan Hill, but still went to the line reasonably well. Will be better suited racing in the first four here and if you go back to her placing behind Assetro last campaign, she is more than capable of running a cheeky race. She is around $31 a PLACE, which is worth a small spec.

Selections

4 Essential Spice
8 Samizdat
3 Party Night

Suggested Bet: 10 places Party Night (3).



Race 3 – Pink

After declaring Max Almighty as the best bet since Fine Cotton seven days ago, I am a little worried going into a race with a similar degree of confidence. A bit like Max, only horribly bad luck can beat Floyd.

I am confident history won’t be repeated and there will be less irate punters after Floyd gives this field a galloping lesson. First up, he was huge when pushing form sprinter Ambiente to a half-length. Traditionally Floyd has been a little soft first up, but there was nothing soft about that effort. Has a terrific second up card and all those performances have been top shelf. If and when this galloper finally attacks some black type, I am sure the stable will be looking to go into that race second up. From barrier 5 he should find the outside of Undisclosed, though he has proven he can take a sit just as well. It is hard to pinpoint something to beat him.

The River looks the obvious danger on paper, but the conditions of this race do not appear to suit. His two wins last campaign were OK, but they weren’t the strongest of fields and both wins involved getting the perfect run just off the speed. He rises to 59kgs here, draws 7 and is coming off a minor knee operation. Has to be a knock.

Undisclosed will make her own luck from barrier 2, while Woolibar is the forgotten horse in the market. Was asked for very little in a recent trial and for those who aren’t keen to hop into the even money for Floyd, the $6 for Woolibar to fill a hole looks enticing.

Selections

1 Floyd
2 Woolibar
9 Undisclosed

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Floyd (1).
 

Race 4 – Pope’s Idol

Bella’s Idol broke through for a well-deserved victory at his most recent outing and looks well mapped to make it two in a row. From the widest alley, Troy Turner rode an absolute pearler to find the one out, one back spot and was too strong for a resilient Geiger Gem late. I am a little worried the margin wasn’t greater, as he did appear to get the dream run, but I am going to put that down to the little bit of work he was asked to do early.

Taxadermy is a horse who will race prominently and make his own luck. If Randy Tan opts to put his foot down on Beaucount and try and gap the rest of the field, this Blackfriars gelding is the one likely to lead the Peloton back up to him and is tough enough to finish over the top.

Battle Torque is low level flying. This is a major step up in class, but his last two wins have been near last to first victories on leader bias country tracks. The worry is having to make up that type of ground against some more seasoned opposition here. Stoicism rounds out the winning chances and should be afforded all the favours from barrier 1.

It is really hard to split those four.

Selections

3 Bella’s Idol
1 Taxadermy
2 Battle Torque

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

Race 5 – Adelaide Bound

The exciting Come Play With Me should add his second black type success here, before spelling and beginning an Adelaide Cup campaign. This Blackfriars gelding appears to travel into races so effortlessly in a manner which reminds me of our great sprinter Rock Magic. Obviously, they are oranges and apples, but it is such an important trait for a horse to sustain a long and successful racing career.

State Prosecutor is clearly the biggest danger and it will be interesting to see the tactics employed. When Peter Hall rode him three starts ago, it was determined and announced that the key to this More Than Ready gelding was riding him cold out the back and allowing him to settle. He tended to race rather erratically with horses around him. Mr. Peters will be fully aware that these tactics will not give them a hope of knocking off Come Play With Me, so I would suspect a little bit more aggression out of the barriers. It’ll be interesting to see how tractably he races.

Aconite and Paddy’s Shadow were both good runs behind Mizlecki. Natasha Faithfull gets a great opportunity aboard Paddy’s Shadow, though that does make me give Aconite a clear nod in that battle. Habesha was something beaten at her most recent start and should round out the top 5.

Selections

1 Come Play With Me
2 State Prosecutor
5 Aconite

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

Race 6 – One More Chance

If Ross Lyon can give Harley Bennell 12 chances, then we can forgive one bad run from New Age.

While this Street Sense mare was asked to tow the rest of the field up to tearaway leader Beaucount, it was still a deplorable effort. She has won leading in the past and racing wide without cover, so giving up the ghost as emphatically as she did was disappointing. I’m not a big forgiver and love to hold a grudge, but from the Adam Durrant stable, with the cerise and white on our favourite Wizard since Albus Dumbledore – forgiveness is an option.

Will be ridden cold here, and the $9 quote is enticing. I will be backing her on a win only basis.

Red Army is clearly the horse to beat after a dominant victory over a very similar field a fortnight ago. Has again drawn well and should be fitter for his second run over the staying journey. No Say In It pushed him right to the line, but it is really hard to see where Mitch Pateman ends up from barrier 11. I can’t see him winning if jagging back to worse than midfield or going forward and racing without cover, so it will take a 10 out of 10 from Mitch – which is a definite possibility in his current form.

Witness In Court is flying and deserves another victory.

Selections

8 New Age
2 Red Army
3 Witness In Court

Suggested Bet: 50 wins New Age (8).
 

Race 7 – Kersley Duo

Yindi and Oregon Bronze look like two horses on the rise and I am confident the Kersley duo are the pair to beat here.

It is not easy to break your maiden status and then come out and win on a Saturday, but Yindi isn’t your average maiden. It is quite amazing that it took 6 starts for that tag to finally be broken. Slashing runs around Media Baron and The Big Show last campaign read well and from barrier 5 with a postage stamp weight, Shaun O’Donnell should give this Demerit gelding every chance.

I’m very much in the corner of Oregon Bronze however and think she clearly is the one to beat. Has raced without luck this entire campaign while still recording three wins on the bounce and looks like a mare on the rise. Last start she was unwanted in betting ($3 to $6), when Paul Harvey sent her forward from her awkward gate and was too strong for the smart Bonny Be Good. While the margin was only a long neck, when she was challenged with 100m to go, you get the feeling both Paul and the horse ‘got serious’ and made sure of it. Bonny Be Good was not going better than Oregon Bronze on the line.

$4.80 is on offer for Oregon Bronze and while I am happy with this quote, I do think with the likely support for Yindi, Reykjavik and a few others we may well see a slightly bigger price on the day. So I will be betting late (and whinging when I have to lock in $2.80 at the death).

After Floyd, she is clearly my next best of the day.

Selections

10 Oregon Bronze
14 Yindi
5 Don’t Fuss

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Oregon Bronze (10).
 

Race 8 – Box Ticker

Pike, barrier 1, horse finding full fitness after a solid first up effort. Abdicator looks like a real box ticker. From barrier 1, Pike should be able to hold the back of likely leader Mrs Brown’s Boy (with Greco racing on his outside and Rockon Tommy taking a sit), though he would want to be careful he doesn’t get shuffled back a few spots on the fence. With Touch Of Silver close to a peak performance, he won’t be able to outsprint that galloper if making similar runs from the bend.

One Short wasn’t suited by racing further back in the field at his most recent outing and is suited here from barrier 3. Might not be the most talented horse in the race, but can jump cleanly, race on pace and box on late. All the ingredients required for victory.

Happy sticking with Team Pike here, in what looms as an enthralling Pike v Harvey battle.

Selections

8 Abdicator
4 Touch Of Silver
5 One Short

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Abdicator (8). 

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