Back to Feed

Belmont Preview, 22nd June news

Belmont Preview, 22nd June

Chris Nelson | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 22 June, 2018

Race 1 – Kepler

With the Eagles, Socceroos and Royal Ascot treble on the horizon, time is limited so we’ll keep this short and sweet.

Not since Kepler Bradley went down clutching his knee on that fateful night in 2013, has a sporting figure returned from a knee injury with such gusto. Fire And Rain has absolutely dazzled in trials and looks to have come back bigger and better than ever. Should find the front here with Braggadocios the main danger hiding on his back.

I have never really been a massive Kiss The Breeze fan and from barrier 9, I can’t see a possible way she wins. With a stack of pace underneath, she will more than likely be snagged back to last and be running on late. There is no way she should be able to reel off sectionals quick enough to grab Fire And Rain. Artie’s Jewels rounds out the chances.

Selections

1 Fire And Rain
5 Braggadocios
2 Kiss The Breeze

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Fire And Rain (1).

 

Race 2 - Class Will Prevail

Rockon Tommy is one of my better bets for the day. His last two efforts against Roganella & Arcadia Prince were full of merit when leading on hot tempos and giving good kicks on straightening. I suspect with the Disruptive, Shania Style and The Nicconian speed drawn underneath him, the in-form Peter Knuckey will be happy taking a sit at the more suitable 1200m.

Was hoping to shop around the $5 mark, so the $4.40 early is close to what we want. Confident class prevails here and will see Tommy too strong for this lot late.

Selections

7 Rockon Tommy
4 Disruptive
6 Shania Style

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Rockon Tommy (7).

 

Race 3 – More Miller

A really good betting race with plenty of contrasting form lines.

It is hard to go past Alpha Sky after a reasonable effort against the top three-year olds. I suspect there might be a touch more aggression with the tactics here. Three starts ago Pike rode him, when leading and defeating Roganella quite comfortably.

Atlanta Blue sizzled over the final 200m in her clash with the very smart River Dance & Stageman. This is easier, but there are question marks over getting the right run for young apprentice Tayla Stone. In saying this, she is our form apprentice.

Prying Tom absolutely savaged the line at his most recent outing, while Lorentinio went around at $180/1 last start (this dickhead went win only) when running a credible third to Sovereign Trade. Nothing else on pace in that event stuck on well. Really liked that run.

Selections

3 Alpha Sky
6 Lorentinio
1 Atlanta Blue

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 4 – Fabulous Fabby

Fabergino is creating quite the buzz in WA and despite racing the older horses for the first time here, I suspect she’ll get the job done.

Has not been tested in her two wins this campaign and it will be interesting to see if the very smart Super Maxi can hold up and make her work in the breeze. There is still the question mark on whether Fabergino has another gear. At the $1.50 on offer, I’m not willing to find out in a financial sense.

Snow Lord flies over the 1000m and should be rounding out your trifecta. In the very unlikely chance the top two over cook it, Pike will have this gelding in position A.

Selections

4 Fabergino
1 Super Maxi
2 Snow Lord

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 5 – At My Witts End

Not my best race name. Makes no real sense, as the appointment of Kate Witten makes complete sense with the 59.5kgs here. Moving on…

This looks an absolute special IF (so much emphasise on this word) Kate can get a run. Last start sat four-deep throughout when going down by under 4 lengths to Super Maxi. They have then vetted her to see what went wrong? What? Let me tell you what went wrong. She covered 10 more lengths than the rest of the field!! There is not even a ‘raced wide throughout’ in the steward’s report. Stewards, please.

Misty Metal is in good form in the lower grades, but like Des Headland is a complete and utter front runner. When the going gets tough, he gets held to 8 touches and spends the next month in the WAFL. Easy to play decent footy when you have Voss, Akermanis & Black around you… Felt good getting that impromptu rant out.

Denim Pack is flying while Cardup Legend returns from over two years off. Good luck to connections.

Selections

1 Speeding Comet
2 Denim Pack
9 Little Hercules

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Speeding Comet (1) – Wins only as she either gets held up and misses completely or gets through and wins.

 

Race 6 – Guineas

Happy narrowing this down to three main chances in Roganella, Necklet & Mizlecki.

Roganella is clearly the horse to beat after drawing barrier 1 and meeting his rivals at significantly better weights. From barrier 1 should enjoy a run on the back of Lickety Split or Misty Lad. Paul Harvey concerns me a bit in the saddle and I worry from the inside gate that he might find some clearance issues.

Mizlecki is flying and Jerry Noske goes back on. She will jag him out to last and be the one running the quickest last 400m. Necklet was disappointing last start and it is hard to see him turning the tables on Roganella with the weight swing against him.

Debellatio and State Prosecutor are knockout hopes.

Selections

8 Mizlecki
2 Roganella
9 Necklet

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 7 – Lord Bolton

Without causing offence to the connections of Mr Motown, to see him winning a listed race made it quite easy to put a pencil (not pen) line through that form. It couldn’t have been the strongest form race in the world. Durendal is now officially the biggest bridesmaid since Daniel Kowalski (this is a Kieran Perkins continually beating him joke, not anything else) and I don’t think that will change.

Rebel King is the one who comes in to this event on the back of a very soft trial. Won fresh last time in when defeating Battle Hero and I suspect he will be going very close again here.

The way Pretentious Chant finished off last start, is another reason to look at the Beaufine form line as more of a 78+ than a black type race.

Selections

4 Rebel King
2 Profit Street
1 Durendal

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Rebel King (4).

 

Race 8 – Gift Horse

Fittingly the corporates are putting prices up for the final event of the day, just as I land on it. Sovereign Trade was my best of the day a fortnight ago and didn’t let us down with a soft victory coming from a long way back. The race really was set up for him that day and the Prying Tom, Lorentinio, Mongolian Warlord form-line going forward will definitely be questionable. I do see this Bernie Miller gelding as a progressive type however.

The drop back to 1300m from the 1400m and the rise in grade has turned me off putting him on top here and I will be confidently tipping against him with my best bet of the day in Minus Looks.

Had a month freshen up before returning to his fortress at Belmont Park where he boasts an outstanding record. Sat deep throughout but boxed on admirably (even more so given the gap between runs) to be beaten two lengths to River Dance.

The barrier is a little sticky, though I do think with the potential speed of Great Again & Gunnago coming across from out wide, he should be able to tuck into a nice spot. He is quicker early than the majority of the 8 horses drawn underneath him. $15 has gone up – don’t look a gift horse in the mouth!

Tellem We’re Comin is the lay of the day, while for those who enjoy a save Sovereign Hall at $8.50 once again looks very backable.

Selections

9 – Minus Looks
4 – Sovereign Trade
13 – Great Again

Suggested Bet: 50 wins and 50 places Minus Looks (9).

40 Comments | 2 months ago

Recent Comments

User darkshines

darkshines 25 Jun | Posts: 2811

Rodent's appraisal couldn't be written any better. She raced like a 1400m horse

User spinking

spinking 24 Jun | Posts: 1653

Don't know who is to blame here, the people who give the printers the information to print in the racebook, or the printers. If anyone was at the races yesterday and still has the book have a look at the Eastern states form. Wasn't yesterday's races they must ...

User Rodent

Rodent 24 Jun | Posts: 4261

@Gilgamesh  Yes just total time minus last 600m time.

User Gilgamesh

Gilgamesh 24 Jun | Posts: 2610

Fabergino to me looked like a horse that had the brilliance trained out of it. In hindsight maybe that's what happened last start (which I interpreted as the filly being held back to them). She WAS a flying machine but yesterday didn't look like getting near t...

User Rodent

Rodent 24 Jun | Posts: 4261

Fabergino to me looked like a horse that had the brilliance trained out of it. In hindsight maybe that's what happened last start (which I interpreted as the filly being held back to them). She WAS a flying machine but yesterday didn't look like getting near t...

User Ngawyni

Ngawyni 23 Jun | Posts: 365

I wouldn't say outclassed but up against some good older horses and for a 3 yo filly, badly off at the weights. I thought it's last run was a little below its previous form (I notice Scott Embrey in his preview said the same) and for me it repeated its last ru...

User psycho

psycho 23 Jun | Posts: 214

Took the $7.50 and Fabergino starts $2+ they knew. As soon as I saw Fabergino drift I knew it was dead I'm surprised there hasn't more been said on here. It stinks. Winterbottom, please!? Maybe it was simply outclassed ? Not the first time a 3YO f...

User trooper

trooper 23 Jun | Posts: 625

Im sure FRK will love watching replays of his horses in that race 

User thefalcon

thefalcon 23 Jun | Posts: 15099

too right swooper..stewards report.."blocked the entire length of the straight"... :((

User H-BOMBER

H-BOMBER 23 Jun | Posts: 6397

Took the $7.50 and Fabergino starts $2+ they knew. As soon as I saw Fabergino drift I knew it was dead I'm surprised there hasn't more been said on here. It stinks. Winterbottom, please!?