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Belmont Preview, 22nd September news

Belmont Preview, 22nd September

Terry Leighton | Metropolitan Racing | Fri 21 September, 2018

Race 1 - No Mystery

It appears a lot of owners and trainers have opted for the footy over the gallops with some very thin acceptances. It isn’t a card which gets the blood flowing.

After riding 4 of the 9 midweek winners, William Pike should add to that tally with the very smart Mystery Miss in the first. Despite using the cutaway (Pike still seems to be one of very few jockeys who understand the benefits of riding your horse patiently and waiting for the cutaway, rather than attempting to go 10 wide around the bend) she was extremely impressive in defeating Cup Night at Northam. Going forward, the Cup Night form line will prove to be a strong one.

The obvious danger is a track with a pace bias and Benny Paterson stealing this with the aptly named Free Mover. Seconda Vita franked that form line last Saturday. At the 1300m, I’m confident Mystery Miss will be suited and she will be going two to their one over the final 150m.

Staresandwhispers didn’t handle the heavy track last time out and is capable of nicking second from Free Mover at a reasonable quote.

Not a big fan of the shorties (she is $1.6), but happy putting lobbing her into Battle Storm ($1.5) & King Blitz ($2) at around the $5 mark. All 3 should be winning.

Selections

3 Mystery Miss
5 Stares Andwhispers
1 Free Mover

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Mystery Miss (3).

 

Race 2 - Tarantino

Django hasn’t gone well this campaign but I did not mind the last start effort (despite running last) when appearing to be travelling well before getting very little running room in the straight. Has shed rating points since running third at WFA to Silverstream in December last 2017 and is at a winnable mark.

Rockon Tommy is the obvious one here, though there does have to be some questions on his ability to run out a strong mile, while Astronomite who has been extremely unlucky all campaign, really did have his chance last time out. Settlers Creek is going well though has excelled more over the sprinting trips in recent campaigns.

Gun to my head, Django is probably not my realistic on top selection but with the three main fancies priced from $1.90 to $3.70, the $35 on offer for Django is worth a small speculative investment in a 6 horse field. Over $10 to run in the top third of the field.

Selections

1 Django
2 Astronomite
6 Rockon Tommy

Suggested Bet: 5 wins and 10 places Django (1).

 

Race 3 - WCE 44 v Melbourne 32

With the Eagles 12 points up at half time we can all grab an over priced, watered down, mid strength beer from Optus Stadium and watch the feature race of the day. Yuck.

Duck Duck Goose looked good on debut and picks itself on that effort behind Battle Storm. Most of these horses will never win a race until they are sold for $180 at a dispersal sale and pinch a Yalgoo maiden.

Argoon has had it’s chances but with William Pike on board, appears the only danger.

Selections

9 Duck Duck Goose
3 Argoon
1 Little Red Roman

Suggested Bet: 60 wins Duck Duck Goose (9).

 

Race 4 - Miller’s Dream

Going to chase the value here despite everything pointing towards a Pagan Image victory.

Foxy Dreamer was heavily backed first up when brushing the running rail and putting in the cue in the rack. You can completely put a line through that run. Second up, this Foxwedge filly was afforded absolutely no luck when racing extremely wide throughout, but bravely continuing to come late. It was the type of effort which suggests she will relish the step up to the mile. Stablemate Sophie’s Song won the following event in a canter, but despite having a very easy time of it out in front, she ran an inferior time. It may be a long bow to draw, but going to their previous runs, when they met in a reasonably good quality three year old event, Foxy Dreamer was the one of the two Simon Miller runners who came in for the stronger backing. This is a pretty astute betting stable, so is probably worth noting.

Foxy Dreamer is $16, Sophie’s Song is $2.30. No prizes for guessing which way we will be going here.

Pagan Image clearly has the best form lines, with the second to True Defender a huge effort. Is lumped with 59kg’s here and a rise to 1600m which will not be easy for a young horse. Really liked the last effort of Cockney Crew also.

We’ll have a small speculative bet on a Simon Miller runner who has raced without luck and looks over priced.

Selections

6 Foxy Dreamer
1 Pagan Image
2 Cockney Crew

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 30 places Foxy Dreamer (6).

 

Race 5 - Bob

This feels like deja vu, spruiking a Bob Peters youngster.

True Defender, Arcadia Queen, Final Hearing, Mystery Miss headline a long list of Bob Peters carnival aspirants, but this fellow is the one I think could be the best of the lot. His turn of foot reminds of a young Perfect Reflection (still enjoy watching his maiden win, when Pike could not have done any more wrong) and it’ll be fascinating to see how he goes against a tearaway leader in red hot form.

Time To Trade will look the winner at the 150m mark after connections finally sent this Trade Fair gelding around a bend (for some very odd reason his first three career starts were down the Pinjarra straight). Will lead, give a good kick and is running time in the country. ‘And here comes Battle Storm!’, will be the line we hear at about the 100m mark as the ominous cerise and white cloud lingers over Belmont once more.

Selections

7 Battle Storm
6 Time To Trade
2 Night Voyage

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Battle Storm (7).

 

Race 6 - Over The Top?

Electric Light has been a revelation for connections at his debut campaign with 5 wins from her 7 career starts. Has been afforded 10 out of 10 rides from good alleys at her last three victories and from barrier 3, should again be given every hope. Dropping down from 1400m to the 1200m at her 8th start this preparation, this may not be 100% ideal. At even money we will look to take her on here.

Royal Missile races fresh for Jarrad Noske and wasn’t knocked about by young Kate Southam in a recent trial. With Jarrad Noske riding at what I presume will be very close to his catchweight of 58.5kgs, this mare can continue her rise in a 72+ event lacking a huge amount of depth. She was undefeated in restricted events last campaign until taking it up to the likes of Dainty Tess & Battle Hero in black type races. I dare say Simon Miller has one of the feature sprints earmarked for her throughout the carnival.

The Celt is going well but will find it awfully difficult with 61.5kgs while Reykjavik and Big Caroline are both in very good form.

$10 Royal Missile is a price which will disappear quick smart if their is any camp confidence. I’d be punting early and crossing my fingers. If she is easy in the market, throw your ticket in the bin.

Selections

3 Royal Missile
5 Electric Light
7 Big Caroline

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Royal Missile (3).

 

Race 7 - New Man

Junction, Meekatharra, Mount Magnet and Yalgoo are some of the tracks Barry Newnham has taken his small team in the past 12 months. It’s sometimes nice for someone besides Bob to get one that looks a bit ‘out of the box’. King Blitz has been nothing short of sensational this campaign and his most recent victory was one you need to see to believe. Tayla Stone replacing Peta Edwards has to be viewed as a major plus and she should comfortably find the outside of likely leader Cubitt And Cundy, and even get cover when Lofty Lad comes across from his wide draw.

Three lengths behind him last start was Recharger who came out to win by 3.5 lengths on Wednesday. Unless something goes horribly wrong, this just wins.

Selections

3 King Blitz
6 Arctic Stream
7 Yindi

Suggested Bet: 100 wins King Blitz (3).

 

Race 8 - The Charge Of The Light Brigade

New Time, A Knight Of Pro, Count Tomoz Off, Recoiled, Chasing Chaos, Turbo Power, Beaucount and Forseen are all horses who like to race on speed. Forseen is probably the quickest of this lot early, but after drawing barrier 13 and with the plethora of speed in this event dead obvious, a change in tactics is a strong possibility. It’s very difficult to predict an accurate speed map, but either way it should suit Pym’s Royale who requires a strong tempo to settle in his races. Raced without cover on a hot tempo at his most recent outing, when continuing to fight all the way to the line with 60kg’s. Looks well suited here.

Turbo Power is a horse going a lot better than his pricing suggests, but is a hard one to map from barrier 10. If a few of the speed brigade opt to be ridden cold and he can find the fence and lead, he will be extremely hard to beat. Hard to see this happening.

Patrocity is flying, though Pike sticks with Bold Success. It is important to note Jordan Turner’s MRW is 54kg’s so he cannot claim the 1.5kg apprentice allowance. A Knight Of Pro is nearing a peak performance and should slot in just behind the hot tempo. Tricky race to finish the day.

Selections

1 Pym’s Royale
10 Turbo Power
13 Patrocity

Suggested Bet: No bet.

  

12 Comments | 2 months ago

Recent Comments

User piker

piker 23 Sep | Posts: 199

Behaviour issues; you mean the horse or the trainer or both?

User therealkramer

therealkramer 22 Sep | Posts: 6321

King Blitz: In the  pre-race interview, the trainer said there had been some issues and that his behaviour was a bit different on raceday. Raced a bit different too! Behaviour issues, odds on fav and an apprentice rider....what could possibly go wrong?...

User Rodent

Rodent 22 Sep | Posts: 4309

King Blitz: In the  pre-race interview, the trainer said there had been some issues and that his behaviour was a bit different on raceday. Raced a bit different too!

User therealkramer

therealkramer 22 Sep | Posts: 6321

The king got king hit!! He'll be back Self inflicted. Amateur hour to turn up on a Saturday with that plan. Won’t get anywhere near a Railway at this point.

User H-BOMBER

H-BOMBER 22 Sep | Posts: 6599

The king got king hit!! He'll be back

User Thunderstruck

Thunderstruck 22 Sep | Posts: 2025

WAFJ X(

User therealkramer

therealkramer 22 Sep | Posts: 6321

That will be the last time an apprentice rides the King b-( :-\"

User brady

brady 22 Sep | Posts: 1215

Turbo Poweris Value

User Chelsea

Chelsea 22 Sep | Posts: 1202

Best of the day Cockney Crew Patrocity

User piker

piker 21 Sep | Posts: 199

I just looked at the replay of HOTB; was v impressive and surely Caulfield will suit even better!